Hi Phaedrus. Do you want to reconsider your position?
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Announcements to the stock exchange should able to be understood by everyone. Analysis of what they mean should be unnecessary. When will the respective exchanges sort this?
Agree 777, this situation is disgusting - people are totally confused seemingly
disc: don't hold PPP
to me it reads .....
PetroVietnam wants it 15% rights, what the rest of the parties do is their business.
so pppv might still get its 15% from the other parties to spread out the costs.
so this is where the confusion comes from, the other parties need to sort out if they want pppv to help out in the costings or not.
also, while no one knows if we're in or out or half in etc,
we should have a trading halt until the market is informed correctly.
ppp pulled trading halts for less important announcments..........
I havn't seen anything yet to change my opinion that all holders' interests will abate and that PPP will end up with 12.75%.
As for Vietnam govt approval, this is a normal requirement. Any move to call a trading halt for this reason wiould send completely the wrong message and might be interpreted as trying to hold a gun to V G's head. We just have to be patient - or throw in our hands!
:cool:
I am happy to update my comments for you, Nita.
"Technically aware traders that sold PPP on the recent Bearish divergence at 79 cents would have bought back in at 64 cents on the basis of RSI and RVI buy signals as marked by green arrows." Such traders would have sold when PPP broke its trendline and broke below its previous support level of 60 cents, making this a losing trade for them.
"For more conservative investors in this stock, PPP remains a "Hold" for the following reasons :-
(1) Longterm confirmed trendline is unbroken. Now broken.
(2) Slow Stochastic Oscillator has not signalled a Sell. Still true.
(3) OBV trendline is unbroken. Still true.
(4) Trailing Stop has not been hit." Still true
For conservative longterm investors, PPP still remains a "Hold". (It is not good practice to act on the basis of a single signal in isolation)..
"PPP is therefore a Buy (for traders) or a Hold (for investors) but not a Sell at this time". PPP is now a Sell (for traders) or a Hold (for investors) but not a Buy at this time. Very nervous longterm investors might perhaps want to sell on the basis of the isolated (unconfirmed) trendline break.
Guys
If I may add a bit, as an interested bystander (now) and someone with some background in this area.
PPP's deal was subject to pre-emption by PetroVietnam. No comment has ever been made that this pre-emption has been cleared. This has always been a concern.
If we look at the AWE deal, it was also subject to the same pre-emption terms, but in their quarterly report in March, it was stated that this was cleared.
AWE's deal was for 22.3% while PPP's was 15%. Different blocks, but same concept.
The confusion arises as PV also have a 15% back-in right, which is triggered when a development concept is tabled. This has just been triggered for the Santos/Premier Block. I understand that this is typical in Vietnam, but it is not 100% clear if it applies to both the AWE and PPP blocks, but I strongly suspect it does.
The confusion here is that the PV pre-empt and back-in are both for 15%.
My view is that PV have pre-empted the deal and as such PPP have no further interest in the block. They will get their money back, with minor or no uplift. The 15% back-in rights (across all the JV) still exists.
This is a bad outcome and was obtained because PPP did not get clearance form PV before they committed the money and drilled the well. Compare this with AWE announcements.
I have recently sold a substantial holding in PPP as it just looked unusual. The remainder was dumped yesterday. I no longer own the shares.
This is not advise. Do you own research.
Pipe
I cant believe investors pushed PPP sp up to 75 cents based on a possible drill in Vietnam. I sold out my shares awhile back and made comments on ST the detriment of PPP venturing off the bleeding path.
I contacted PPP today and at best i would have to describe the person who answered the phone as standoffish. What i was after is a simple clarification on yesterdays announcement.
I strongly recomend everyone to call PPP on + 61 2 9957 2177. At least to ask for clarification or to speak to Tom Prudence as outlined in yesterdays announcement.
Pipeline,
a man of few contributions, but that is a very good summation. Thanks
In hindsight, perhaps we saw the smart money selling around 80 soon after the positive announcement re the drill results, i.e. those with more industry savvy realised that PV would back-in. Possibly explains that big dump that came out of the blue a while ago.
This imprudence might mean no Prudence.......
disc: feeling 15% of the pain via NZO
Pipeline. I strongly suspect you are on the money.
PPP approach to the farm in was a sort of opportunistic event that in reality was always going to be a lose lose situation. Im saying that with the be3nefit of hindsight but also know its unrealistic to assume that PPP could simply walk in a few weeks before the drill and get a free ride so to speak.
Like anything in life its the pre planning, planting the seeds, setting the foundations first etc that is important. Clearly this wasnt done.
Next....
I have taken the liberty in talking to other bigger shareholders of PPP. The general feedback is that PPP's announcement yesterday and other past announcements is rather vague and ambigious.
To simplify, it appears that PV has the right to take all of PPP's 15 or part of it.
Anyone had any luck in getting a response from PPP today?
Send PPP an email and asked for an explanation.
Answer received:
Dear Sir,
Thank you for your email which I have forwarded to the appropriate person.
Regards
Marianna
OO
Thanks also Pipeline for your comments. You are saying the preemptive rights are different from the back in rights even though they are both 15%. Going back to post 1325 from Boysey I only see a condition in the original agreement for the waiver of preemptive rights but nothing about the back in rights. Surely both should have been declared here if in fact they are separate. Why do you believe they are separate - it seems quite a coincidence they both are 15%?
..you traders out there must be having a ball.....gee 12 % in two days.....cool man....
Bit of Buy depth on the NZX now... Haven't seen that for a while.
When we were mid 60s and up, there was so little, that it seemed if anyone needed to sell a chunk quickly, the price would be hit hard, and that news triggered a few of those..
Good to see some support firming again. Oil prices going up again may have helped, and the general positive feeling with the DOW over 10K, and perhaps being oversold... That other farmin could be worth some $..
Wish the story with Vietnam could be clarified though..
I am a bit suprised by the lack of discussion with this thread. As a shareholder of PPP i made all reasonable endevours to get a straight answer from the company. I have phoned and emailed but to no avail. Maybe i am just 1 of a small minority who cares about what happens to my investments.
Nita...I too recieved minimal response.
Any thoughts as to whether NZO could get an answer - they should have a bit of sway being a major shareholder... Since they seem to be ignoring everyone else.
I have phoned again and told i will get a response to my email later this afternoon. I will post the response when i get it. I also phoned Veitnam but due to a lack of my global language capabilities I was unable to get any further than the receptionist.
I received their email 2 minutes ago:
Clear now??????????????????????????????
Dear Shareholder,
Your email refers.
PPP is a publicly listed entity on the ASX and NZX and is therefore required to comply with the relevant continuous disclosure obligations and as such is required to immediately advise the market of any information that the Company receives which a reasonable person would expect to have a material effect on the price or value of the Company's shares. PPP has already reported as much information as is available with respect to PPP's investment in Vietnam and as soon as PPP becomes aware of any additional information which it is required to disclose it will release this information to the market.
Regards
Marianna
Could it be that they , just as us, don't understand what has happened or is going to happen?
OO
I have also sent an email to them trying clear up my theory the preemptive rights are the same as the back in rights.
I also just got the same standard response as oldowl. At least it came back quickly - probably on autoreply.
Hi Marianna,
Kindly advise what is the effect on PPP’s announcement yesterday. Very ambiguous and vague much like the rest of the announcements for this farm in agreement.
If I can’t get an answer straight away when can we expect some comment from Tom?
Their Response
Dear Mr ......
Your email refers.
PPP is a publicly listed entity on the ASX and NZX and is therefore required to comply with the relevant continuous disclosure obligations and as such is required to immediately advise the market of any information that the Company receives which a reasonable person would expect to have a material effect on the price or value of the Company’s shares. PPP has already reported as much information as is available with respect to PPP’s investment in Vietnam and as soon as PPP becomes aware of any additional information which it is required to disclose it will release this information to the market.
Regards
Marianna
My response to their response
Dear Marianna,
With all due respect, I can only come to one conclusion and that is PPP itself do not know what is going on. If Tom and the management don’t know then how do you expect us shareholders to know.
I see this as a poor reflection on the company and its management. I certainly hope that there is a better response in the not too distant future.
Best regards,
.......
Send them a link to this thread. They may learn something.
Thanks Nita,
Your responce is as i expected and probably explains why i have not bothered. PPPV is an added extra a bit like the belief in the gold and rainbow thing. Would hope no more than 2 cents are added to the SP from Vietnam. East timor sounds a lot better arrangement. Why in hell anyone would sign up to drilling someone else well is beyond me.In fact the info as we have it makes you wonder about the way some people think. Keep this up and we better start some changes at the top. AGM coming up on 14 NOVember.
Your welcome Digger. At least it should make it an interesting AGM this year.
The other thing to consider, is that based on 35% of the company, the directors compined holdings have decreased by:
NZD$18.5 million - if on the NZ register. (65c to 56c) ($24.7million before yesterdays 3c increase).
AUD$16.5 million - if on the AU register. (52c to 44c)
So, given they have so much to gain/lose in their "adventures", either they couldn't see the real story being blinded by $ signs in front of them, or there is more yet to play out on this...
The Directors were simply too slow to pounce on the Premier farm-in . imo.
Whats the bet they dithered over it for months , when they could have had the pre-emptive rights sorted pre-drill (as is industry norm ,, aka Farm-in 101).
PVEP are the most aggressive NOC on the planet , not surprised at all by this.
M
From what i heard, the Farm in agreement was being "Out There" around for a few months prior to PPP picking it up. Basically none of the other oilers did anything about it so PPP picked it up on a last minute decision.
I will take a wild stab and say that PPP will end up with a 5% stake in it. If they lose the lot then it will only make other foreign oilers to be more stand-off-ish about participating in any further exploration ventures with Asain or more specifically Veitnam Oil Co's.
Nita
Word on the streets up here is that PPP will hold only 5% post the pre-empt. I suspect that the reasons for the partial pre-empt is exactly as you state it. Foreign investment.
PV will still retain the back-in right for a further 15% across all JV as per the existing legislation.
A bad outcome for PPP borad and management, as this was highlighted by all as a risk which was not closed out.
Pipe
i think the current sp has factored in the worst case dont we think ? 5% is still better than a kick in the eye and with upcoming drills even 5 % could be lucrative. I have written off vietnam and i think the sp speaks volumes so any good news would be welcome.
Boysy
I admire your optimism.
It would be a sad day when losing 10% of an oil discovery through poor management can be described as good news.
The stock was 30 ish cents when the Vietnamese discovery was made. Markets and oil prices are higher, so I doubt it will plumb to these depths again, but a management (and board) discount may also be appropriate.
DYOR.
Pipe
I've a mind to recommend the Board be posted on Jim Cramer's Wall of Shame :(:(
The caveats on the Vietnam interest were announced at the time. Anyone buying in at that stage or later should have been well aware of the situation.
Just one of the risks in investing in O & G stocks.
:cool:
As much as it would be nice to have I have a feeling that 15% of a successful drill may have been an option on paper but was never going to happen. A 5% + holding and options in to future drills could still be nice to have an may have been the expect out come. A 0% holding I would be interested on how they can explain at the AGM
could indeed be quite an interesting AGM. I wonder if NZO are running there fingers over the calculator once again looking at ppp. Any way plenty of action over the next few months with the drillbit and hopefully a positive outcome from vietnam.
sold my last 20,000 ppp today and bought 5,800 nzo with them.
had owned ppp for almost 30 years and now don't own any.
at least through nzo I own a few ppp indirectly
M
It's very reassuring to see Messrs Pitt and Tomlinson have just acquired 200,000 shares each at A44.5c. Maybe some more news on Vietnam is coming over the weekend
where did you get that from.....
Just posted through Direct Broking - sorry I'm not sure how to cut and paste it into here. It was announced at 15.37 today on the ASX.
This has been my point all alone. The directors are the only ones that have any real idea what is happening with PPPV and they own 37% of the company and are slowly buying.I still have 2 million after giving away 100000 each to my offsprings and would sell the lot if it were not for the director large holding in this company.And lets remember it is spread over most of the directors which by any mesure is a very good sign. The idea of drilling someone else's well makes me uneasy but in this case they just might suprise.
From Vietnam point of view they will internationally screw themselves if PPP is left with nothing,which i believe has been the director trumpt card all along.
And by the way Paint it Black nothing will be coming shortly as the directors have just bought on 7 Oct so they must not know anything on that date or coming up which all of us do not know. I would say another month but hopefully before the next drill which i still believe is this year.
Directors own 37%? You might want to clarify your point here Digger.
NZO hold around 14% through Stewart Petroleum. Tattersfield Securities hold around 12% (perfect blocking stake). The point made where the directors are accumulating a positive sign in one sense but in comparison to their holdings its a very small amoount of increase. If you see them jumping in buying by the millions then its worth to take more notice. Still, have to say that it is more positive than negative.
"The directors are buying" is a quote that appears in almost every thread on Sharetrader. I read nothing into this. The directors may see it as a way of protecting their interest. What if the directors were selling? What is more important is the value of the company. I no longer hold PPP for two reasons. One the sp moved above my estimated value and two I am now unsure how to put a new value on the company. It was easy when they had $120m in the bank and no other balls in the air.
h2so4, in the U.S. it is a proven strategy to buy when the directors buy and short when the directors sell. Cant remember which study it was...but there is a fund dedicated to following this strategy in the U.S. I have heard, anybody know which one it is?
Why would it outperform the general market?
Directors know a hell of a lot more than you or I, and to be honest are generally pretty good business wise (probably more-so than most of us here) therefore, if they're buying (in good quantities) then there is a better than average chance that it is a good buy. The opposite is true if they're selling.
Re PPP. It could become attractive again before this appraisal drilling in and around Tui. At least they're starting to become quite active...lets hope Mr Prudence doesnt blow the big cash pile that once was.
That Vietnam situation was a lose-lose situation for PPP. Crazy how it happened?
Has it been clarified yet whether the Veitnam Govt takes all of PPPs holding or gains its 15% on a pro rata basis
One would think that when they entered the origional agreement, they would at least know that they were going to end up with either 15% or 12%+ if the Vietnam Govt exercised their option
No guarentee at all unless its in writing to the contary. However they (Petro Vietnam) clearly have the ability to exercise their right and end up with PPP's 15%
The only real way to understand the situation is to see what the common practise is in the past. Do they leave 5% or 10% behind for PPP or do they leave nothing. If they constantly leave nothing then no company in their right mind would buy into a farm in agreement on that basis. Hence my view is that PPP will end up with say 5% stake in it.
Well, thats clearer and more positive, still a bit uncertain though....
"PPPV has now been advised that PetroVietnam Exploration Production
Corporation Ltd (PVEP) intends to exercise the pre-emptive right on behalf of
PetroVietnam, and is considering the acquisition of part of the 15%
Participating Interest the subject of the PPPV farmin from Premier. A further
update will be provided when the details of the PVEP position are confirmed. "
https://www.directbroking.co.nz/Dire...spx?id=2361457
at least they got no debt.
still a positive cash flow.
so..umm.. I'm positive.
tick tock, tick tock...
How long will we have to wait for an answer.. Will PPP be trying to put pressure on to know before the AGM next week? I'd expect the atmosphere to be quite negative if there is no update by then.
looks as though drilling will start soon in the timor sea the agm should be interesting
Oilex Ltd advises that on 11 November 2009, Woodside Energy Ltd released the “Songa Mercur” drilling
rig to Oilex and the vessel is now under tow from Dampier to the first well location in Oilex’s Timor Sea
contract area JPDA 06-103. The rig is contracted to drill two wells in JPDA 06-103 (with an option of one
additional well). Drilling is expected to start in late November 2009.
The “Songa Mercur” will be drilling the Loré and Lolotoe prospects in JPDA 06-103, targeting mean
prospective oil resources of 195 million barrels and 90 million barrels respectively (100% basis).
The AGM is coming up this Thursday afternoon with a small lift in the SP as it approaches. I wonder if the proposed APEC eight nation trade deal which includes Vietnam, Australia and NZ may help pursuade the Vietnamese Government to moderate their preemptive rights with their new mates?
Premier Oil were up 5.5% today, and a broker upgrade says there is 20% to go. Of course Premier have diverse O & G interests, but I am consious of people over here picking up on Vietnam.
If we can keep hold of some of our interest there, put together with Tui and speculative Timor Sea, I think we could be within sight of the serious price action we have been looking for.
A lot of if's in there I know.
REL: 1256 HRS Pan Pacific Petroleum NL
GENERAL: PPP: Vietnam Block 07/03 Update
STOCK EXCHANGE ANNOUNCEMENT
19 November, 2009
Pan Pacific Petroleum NL
Vietnam Block 07/03 Update
PetroVietnam has authorized PetroVietnam Exploration Production Corporation
Ltd to exercise its pre-emptive right and to acquire a 10% participating
interest out of the 15% assignment proposed in the Premier Oil Vietnam South
B.V farmout of Block 07/03 to Pan Pacific Petroleum (Vietnam) Pty Ltd (PPPV),
a subsidiary of the Company.
Assignment of the remaining 5% to PPPV will be progressed, but remains
subject to formal PetroVietnam and Vietnamese Government approval.
I guess that is good? Given that the earlier reaction seemed to be based on no involvement..
nothings in the bag quite yet they still have to jump a few hurdles before they get the 5%. Also no mention of reimbusment of costs this could be a big point that is brushed over will we get rightfully reimbursed ?
Agreed. 5% of this could be bigger than 10% of TUI. And no risk of icebergs either. But there is still a long way to go before a production decision.
Lots of positive stories coming about oil exploration in the last week. The brokers will start to take notice in about two days. Drinks tonight, office watercooler talk on Monday. Say by next Tuesday they will know what to think, and the market may wake up.
very average new presentation out for the agm contain little new information other than tuis production for the year has been downgraded hopefully sh are giving it to them at the agm they have alot to front up to
Snippet from Premier Oil News Alert 19.11.09.
* 3D acquired on Block 07/03 in Vietnam, rig due on location for second well, Ca Rong Vang, later this week, following on from successful Ca Rong Do discovery in June.
But boysy did you notic the comment about Maitland.Only got a mention because it is their but nothing happening except what has been happening for the last 4 years.It is a bit like KUPE except that with KUPE they were honest and admit since 1986 that it was for a future event. Hopefully now that future event is tomorrow or a few days after.
I will be cremated with Maitland gas. I will live a long time to come.
i think alot of people who bought up top could likely sell off as we get closet to the td of the wells. Clearly still plenty of upside from either vietnam or timor sea as well as confirmation of a farm in in vietnam. Though nothing is in the bag quite yet look at how the vietnam fiasco has played out so far. Yes digger the mention of maitland was the same old wasnt it i mean how long does appraising really take they should just front up and say it is clearly on the backburner as to hard at this point in time. I think some valid questions have been made about ppp lack of production coming online med to long term i mean if the tui wells are not succesful it could be some years before any finds in vietnam and timor are bought online if there are of course finds. I wouldnt be supprised from ppp statement about going after projects that will add production quickly to ppp whether this be a farm in to recent finds or fast tracked projects who knows but it sounds as though they are not content to sit on there asses and watch the pile of cash grow albit at a slower pace with tuis natural decline.
Oilex kicks off drilling on first well in Timor Sea
http://www.smallcapnews.co.uk/articl..._Sea/7845.aspx
Boysy...I see you're now out of PPP. Did you make a quid out of it in the end?
my entry price was 32 sold half at 65 and the rest at 45. so didnt do too bad though i could of done alot better at 80 cents lol. Looks to be undervalued at the moment based on fundamentals but might come back before tui looks like there is little to no premium built into the sp currently around the drilling in taranaki and vietnam which should be approved sometime one would think.
It would have been better if the 5% in Vietnam was confirmed instead of the announcement below but at least this gives certainty to the planned future drilling around the other 20 prospects in this zone later this year. The market has turned right off PPP recently due to it's low hit rate, delay with the Kan Tan and lack of clarity, however, at the current SP and drilling soon to commence at again Tui and with this announcement it's very tempting to start buying again.
PPP
19/02/2010
GENERAL
REL: 1055 HRS Pan Pacific Petroleum NL
GENERAL: PPP: PPP obtains ANP approval for JPDA 06-103
STOCK EXCHANGE ANNOUNCEMENT
19 February, 2010
PPP obtains ANP approval for JPDA 06-103
PPP is pleased to advise that the Autoridade Nacional do Petroleo of Timor
Leste, the Designated Authority for the Joint Petroleum Development Area
between Timor Leste and Australia, has granted approval for assignment of a
15% participating interest in the JPDA 06-103 Production Sharing Contract
("PSC") to PPP's wholly owned subsidiary Pan Pacific Petroleum (JPDA 06-103)
Pty Ltd ("PPPJ"). This interest has been acquired by farmin to a 5%
participating interest earned from each of GSPC (JPDA) Ltd, Bharat
PetroResources JPDA Limited and Global Energy Inc.
The Participating interests in the JPDA 06-103 PSC are now as follows:-
Pan Pacific Petroleum (JPDA 06-103) Pty Ltd 15%
Oilex (JPDA 06-103) Ltd (Operator) 10%
Global Energy Inc 20%
GSPC (JPDA) Ltd 20%
Bharat PetroResources JPDA Limited 20%
Japan Energy E&P JPDA Pty Ltd 15%
The contract area is located east of a number of existing producing fields
and Eni's Kitan oil discovery and, despite the disappointment of the recent
Lore-1 and Lolotoe-1 exploration wells, remains very attractive for further
exploration. The operator has mapped over 20 prospects with the potential to
host significant oil reserves, most of which have different geological
characteristics and are located to the north of the structures drilled by
Lore-1 and Lolotoe-1 (see operator's map over).
The results of the initial drilling program are being incorporated into the
interpretation of the remaining prospects and decisions on the drilling
program for 2010-2011.
For further information please contact:
Tom Prudence
Chief Executive Officer
Pan Pacific Petroleum NL
Telephone: + 61 2 9957 2177
www.panpacpetroleum.com.au
End CA:00191395 For:PPP Type:GENERAL Time:2010-02-19:10:55:11
ppp look very undervalued to me @ 24c au - probably just above cash position
the 2 tui drills to commence in april could / should, cause sp to be above 40c with just 1 success
if I have success elsewhere in my portfolio, I will be very tempted to buy back into ppp
M
As at 31 December 2009 PP had cash equivalents of AUD106.6m, about 18cps for its 588.6m shares.
I'm waiting for some strength in the SP.
where did you get the A$106.6 m figure im looking at the half year to dec 2009 and it states cash equivilents at A$68 million
Australian Dollars $28.0 million
United States Dollars $27.8 million
New Zealand Dollars $11.2 million
or A$68 million
My guess is some of it will come from adding back the monies put into drilling someone elses well that we are suppost to get back when they activate the back in clause. Better write that off for the next 10 years or certainly do not hold your breath waiting for it.Am waiting for the next report to get a better look at what is happening,but it now does look as if PPP is oversold.
one would think your figure could be closer to the mark after all we will be recieving back costs of 10% if not more from vietnam for the 2 wells drilled there so far but alot of money must of gone down the tube on the timor sea drills
might be buying back into ppp sooner than I thought, with an annoucement out today that a member of the world bank is buying into one of my shares @ a 25% premium
m
sitting at 52 week lows the drilling of tui is agan put back you wonder if it will fall to near cash backing like it has in the past if theres failure at tui this down trend could continue into the low 20s perhaps even lower. Theres value in the company but the directors dont seem to be showing much initiative in going after new ventures the least they could do is farm into a known oil find it doesnt even have to be developed i mean enough of this wildcatstuff they are wasting there only form of income which is declining on elephant hunting i mean come on you need another soure of income before putting all your eggs in one basket.
I'm not sure I'd describe the current drilling programme as "wildcat".
The Tui/Hoki areas are highly prospective, Tui is still a good earner, even at declining rates. New ventures of any proven value are still a big gamble as to whether the costs will ever be recouped.
Easy for me to say, I guess, having exited well last year. But I stand ready to re-enter at an opportune time.
iteresting snipits from awe presentation
http://research.iress.com.au/ids/cur...0F4120000&ppv=
page 10 shows some more plays round tui which i havent sen before
Doesnt give me much confidence with Alan Tattersfield selling down his large holding.
dear Dr...where did you get that from....cheers
I have to admit that "skin in the game " is a very important issue for me....should this continue to be a factor I would trully be worried...as an aside can / could you ever envisage having so much dosh tied up in a company ?.....hell I cant....cheers
I recall buying PPP about a year back cos they had approx. 28 cps in cash and now they have burnt it down to 11 cps in cash without adding any value. This doesnt give investors much confidence.
For what its worth ...I have e mailed this thread to PPP and asked for their response....
Can anyone throw some "light " on the reason why PPP in Aussie is at such a discount to it trading in N Z ?