In a drought, good farmers with excellent farms do not panic and shoot all their animals and stop planting crops.
Many actually take the opportunity to expand their farms by buying up neighbouring farms!
Printable View
Most would be in the same boat - there’s simply not much business in the travel & accommodation industry. And will not be for a while. Difference is that Serko is superbly cashed up and well positioned to recover post lockdown globally.
Have a look at Webjet - having to go cap in hand to raise capital at ever lower price because it got caught with a stretched balance sheet.
https://www.ig.com/en/news-and-trade...million-200402
Well I guess there is the debate over what is fair value. Currently double the value it was a week ago but one third the value it was a few months ago.
I guess my point was that if you are looking to invest at the moment the travel industry is definitely a mid to long term investment before we will see "business as usual" or any real revenue flowing. Would you rush into that or would you look to invest in say the construction industry that should rebound reasonably quick with Governments throwing billions at to stimulate recovery.
However, as stated, my net worth is heavily invested in this industry so the sooner it gets back to $6 the happier I will be.
106 buyers @ $2.52 nothing peculiar about that.
Regret missing this trade so I’m probably bitter but wtf ? Lol
Good ole institutional algos picking this up like crazy probably got greedy on the idea of making baggers from $1
Hard to time eh
what is happening this morning??
Someone appears to be consistently buying up SKO.
No depth on the buy side but the price has been quietly propped up with reasonable trades going through (with the occasional buying frenzy).
geez some of these disclosures are pretty hefty..
Just pushing this at front of forum, as we move into $3 range....
Rising like a rocket on the basis of the impending tourism boom. Or are the fund boys pushing it up so they can exit some more? Milford's last disclosure was pretty revealing.
One thing is for sure, someone will make lots of money.
fwiw a multinational company from Germany I worked for many moons ago has told their staff and directors that there won't be any business flights for the next 12 months unless in an emergency. So no trade shows, customer visits, meetings of distributors etc. Everything to be done via videoconferencing.
discl. like the company but not holding at the moment
I a lot of hope built into the share price at these levels. Business travel is going to be severely curtailed over the next few years. Firstly, international flights are more than likely going to be off the agenda for 2020 and possibly 2021, coupled with most businesses wanting to cut costs as they face the pressure of likely recession. Lastly, what working from home and online meetings has shown us is that it's perfectly adequate in most cases to replace business travel. Most definitely not all, but it's hard to see the level of bookings returning to 2019 levels within the next 3 years. Moreover the many thousands of companies they work with in the travel industry might be under pressure to even survive. This is just my take on things.
One investing house I follow has this priced at around $1.50 and I'm afraid to say I don't disagree.
Even before the pandemic hit, the first half was readjusted downward. Seems as if growth hasn't moved much in the US. So there were issues even beforehand. The company wasn't generating positive operating cash-flow and now this looks like many moons away.
The 100m revenue target looks like a pie in the sky too. Don't understand how this has a market cap of 268m. Over 10x sales with no profit, no op cf.
Very sensible points, but please - don't annoy the believers ... they well might go after you :);
A quite expensive loss making but so called "growth company" with a much higher risk of going down than a chance of going up during the coming reality phase of this crisis.
Growth companies don't fare well in economical downturns. Reliable income and dividend streams are king and Serko offers neither.
Looks set to move into $4 range....what a ride from lows of around 80c back in March to almost $4 now....did held my nerve and never bailed out.
Ah.. was so tempted to re enter at 80c... ohwell, did not see this type of recovery coming. Maybe bookings taking that holding created a really good sentiment among brokers.
Except for virus impacts pretty solid performance Pity about that ‘ precipitous decline’ in March
When things come right Serko will do well
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...124/325041.pdf
2 years of cash left before they need more again
Would corporate travel ever be the same after covid? Our company (large corporate) was trying to reduce carbon emissions well before Covid-19 and had a very strict corporate travel (flying) restriction. Covid-19 just accelerated us achieving our carbon emissions reduction target. I feel as though post Covid-19 a lot of overseas meetings would just happen online. There would be some travel, but at a reduced capacity...
Agree with the last part - best timed capital raise in recent history, a BIG advantage for them right now.
But I'm not sure it would have been a great result anyway, even if Covid hadn't happened. If you add back the March month revenue to pre-Covid levels, you don't get a wonderful revenue growth figure for the year...certainly below my forecast expectations.
Ironically, Covid could be the 'saving grace' for them long term...it will have disrupted everyone, and they now have a great cash position thanks to that capital raise to manage their way through as competitors (potentially) fall by the wayside.
My 2 cents only of course.
Hmm - $115,000 revenue per FTE and year is not that flash, isn't it? But then - they are a growth company, i.e. they just need to make sure revenue (and hopefully earnings) are growing faster than headcount. Would protect them as well from moving too fast into the difficult phase above 500 FTE's when companies need to tight up their processes or fall back.
Heard AIR is planning for a new normal (if & when we passed the Covid phase) in travel of 70% of previous traffic. Just wondering how this will impact on Serkos business?
I am sure they are an amazing company, but does today's share price really reflect a fair balance of risks and opportunities - or is this just based on "she'll be right"?
Anyone on conf call y'day following results announcement. Appreciate if you could summarise key points, couldn't dial in myself due to prior commitments. Will check if there's a transcript available from their website later on.
https://publish.viostream.com/play/ndpapddnhkstaq
Link to y'day's conf call transcript for anyone interested.
Does Serko have a pivot strategy? I still am a big fan of Serko but have sold all my shares a while ago. Amazing how well the share price has held up with news likes these:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-...-slow/12391042
"That means Joyce is expecting Australia's international border to remain closed, at least for tourists, until July next year."
Yesterday on NewstalkZB Heather du Plessis-Allan interviewed Darrin Grafton
https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/...channel=fbp-97
Moving along with their business...
Ovation Travel Group becomes the latest Zeno reseller partner for North America - 5 Aug 20
https://www.serko.com/news/ovation-t...seller-partner
Acendas Travel becomes a Zeno reseller partner for North America - 23 Jul 20
https://www.serko.com/news/serko-and...ement-for-zeno
Mmmm lots of head winds in the travel industry..... TA not looking great. AGM scheduled for 19 Aug going to be interesting.
Disc - SKO was my second largest holding however over the last 6 months I've reduced exposure and taken profits. Now less than 2% of my portfolio. Cautious hold for me.
As always DYOR.
Numerous black outs at todays virtual AGM, NOT GOOD !!!!!!!
Back up again after a break down.
Haven’t we seen this before??? Are they repeating everything?
Maybe its virtual verbiage, or vacuous virtuosity
Only 1 question!
Behind paywall on NBR titled,
"Serko eyes bigger partnership with Booking.com"
Explains the bump in sp since ASM y'day..
For anyone interested, replay of y'day's ASM. I quite enjoyed Darrin's part where he outlines further details with Booking.com partnership and future plans.
https://publish.viostream.com/play/ndpapddn79thsb
Thanks for posting. Much appreciated.
Still part of my portfolio, but on a much reduced scale. While I've taken profits and de-risked I think SKO still has great potential IMO.
The Booking.Com partnership pending deal sounds exciting. They are building a great foundation for exponential future growth when/if safe travel resumes.
You can hear a good interview with Darrin here https://www.nbr.co.nz/category/tech At the moment the interview is on page 1. Just click on speaker icon to listen.
Serko won the 2020 PwC NZ Hi-Tech Company of the Year Award last night https://www.facebook.com/zeno.travel.serko/
Serko won the 2020 PwC NZ Hi-Tech Company of the Year Award last night https://twitter.com/SerkoOnline
Sorry for the double post
Sure ... however there are probably more examples for award winning companies doing tough than doing well. Makes as well sense:
Apart from the boards awarding these rewards not even using economical success as a criterion, they don't know more about the future (or the past) than anybody else. Business awards are just a smoke screens to distract the investors eyes from whatever matters.
I dare to disagree. The award says only that the company considers itself as "Hi tech" and that their managers / owners know the right people (which is easy in NZ).
Sure - previous winners have been XRO and PPH (which may or may not be considered to produce High Tech), but as well Orion Health, Wynyard, ikeGPS and a lot of companies I never heard about like e.g. "Carnival Labs" and "Trigger Happy" - hmm).
Orion Health and Wynyard - sound business models? Are you sure?
Anyway - clearly not a requirement to get this award ...
I didn't ask any question. I stated that the award has absolutely nothing to do with a sound business model or the past, present or future economic success of the winner. Some of them are successful, some may or may not be successful in the future and others clearly have been terrible failures.
The award is worthless to assess the quality of a company. Just an opportunity for the old boys to dust off their black suits once a year ...
On the move....
Inclusion in the S&P - set to return to former highs despite next to no travel?
Sold about a quarter of holding into the bounce, just to balance risk weighting on this one.
Sound decision. FWIW I sold 80% of my holding on the way down (around the death cross). Took my profits.
Sad as I like the company, like the product, like the management.
However the Covid headwinds for the travel industry are likely to continue to disrupt this for a couple of years IMO. In the meantime I thought better to have my money chasing potential elsewhere eg; PEB, IKE and PLX. Crikey I even bought a few OCA (all doing well too!)
It's now back to the levels I sold out this year. I don't think I ever liked a company that much but haven't got a stake in it. I really do wish them well but at current levels I'd feel uncomfortable holding, especially a large parcel I held prior. I hope I do eat my hat and holders are rewarded richly. I of course try to find a way in again at some stage at the right price.
unfortunately I completely underestimated the hysterical response to COVID so rode it down to $1 and back up to $3 before deciding other companies would double my money quicker. So I sold most of my shares off (still hold a few thousand for nostalgia). I probably should have held a few more the way it is going. I’ll probably pick up some more along the way.
However, I can’t complain with the performance of IKE or some of my Aussie shares either.
The thing is...
The way I see it, owning a share in the company isn't about the now. Although Covid will have many a consequence, this 'moment in time' is only a distraction for retail shareholders. App development is the current focus. Although the posts have moved the goals have not changed. The potential is still exceptional. I dare say the future may now actually be closer...
I fully agree with what you say - and I have no doubt SKO is destined for greatness.
However, at the time of selling I figured (possibly incorrectly) that the posts had moved beyond my short term goals.
Who knew that SKO would bounce back so quickly on the back of a decimated travel industry.
The consolation being that I discovered AL3 which is another disruptor that has been on a rocket ride for the past 3 months :t_up:
Any idea why Serko is climbing so fast?
Thanks guys
Trimmed a bit more at current levels and brought down my holding to more balanced level. Keep the remainder for long term at very big safety margin now...
Is there something going on here.. how does the price recover like this lol
Another cap raising
Not that busy at the moment it seems but looking at world domination
Going for broke often good strategy for the ambitious
Cool
The right move IMHO, but still huge headwinds in this industry for 1 to 2 years.
Pandemic travel slump may cost 46 million jobs globally
The impact of the coronavirus on travel may cost as many as 46 million jobs globally, according to projections published by an aviation industry group.
The Air Transport Action Group (ATAG) predicted that the travel slump and a slow recovery will threaten 4.8 million aviation workers and more than half of the 87.7 million total jobs supported directly or indirectly by the sector, in related leisure industries and supply chains.
Disc - was my second biggest holding, but much scaled back in light of Covid.
With so much corporate meetings happening online now I wonder if corporate travel will ever return to the pre covid levels.
Deals may be hard to do online but a lot of meetings can easily be done online. I don't believe corporate travel will recover to previous levels. I expect around 10% of the sector to never return. There are great tools now for sharing info and managing meetings online. Not to mention that some companies will simply not be able to afford it in the near future.
There are tough times out there in the travel, entertainment and hospitality industry.
Disney is laying off 28,000 workers.
The CDC extended the cruise ship ban to USA waters until at least 31 October and apparently wanted to ban cruise ships until 15 Feb 2021 but had to compromise with the White House on 31 Oct.
I'm also mindful that Greg Foran is warning that Air NZ are forecasting a slow travel recovery and not expecting it to be back to 100% in the next 3 years.
Having said that, I like the partnerships Serko have created and the potential opportunities so I will consider investing more.
The situation here reminds me of the movie "Up in the Air".
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/360817
Placement upsized and price set at $4.55.
SP will be $5 soon - that's clear enough.