I sold this prematurely, couldn't believe it went up yesterday. Oh well, on to the next.
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I sold this prematurely, couldn't believe it went up yesterday. Oh well, on to the next.
Anyone know when they will release their figures? Could be a blast if half decent.
Wow this is a buzzing forum huh? Looks like a little puff of motivated buying this morning, probably taking a punt ahead of pending results not being as horrific as factored into SP?
disc: we sold now we are in line to BUY.. moving up on HLG result.
Last year : NZX. Date released
FY19 Result Release Date 26/8/2019, 12:15 pm GENERAL
FY19 Annual Results Announcement 18/9/2019, 9:32 am FLLYR
News Flash: Analysts Just Made A Captivating Upgrade To Their Kathmandu Holdings Limited (NZSE:KMD) Forecas
Kathmandu Holdings Limited (NZSE:KMD) shareholders will have a reason to smile today, with the analysts making substantial upgrades to this year's forecasts. The consensus statutory numbers for both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) increased, with their view clearly much more bullish on the company's business prospects. The market may be pricing in some blue sky too, with the share price gaining 13% to NZ$1.23 in the last 7 days. It will be interesting to see if today's upgrade is enough to propel the stock even higher.
Following the upgrade, the latest consensus from Kathmandu Holdings' seven analysts is for revenues of NZ$737m in 2020, which would reflect a meaningful 8.8% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are supposed to nosedive 76% to NZ$0.05 in the same period. Yet before this consensus update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of NZ$658m and losses of NZ$0.027 per share in 2020. So we can see that this has sparked a pretty clear upgrade to expectations, with higher revenues anticipated to lead to profit sooner than previously forecast.
It will come as no surprise to learn that the analysts have increased their price target for Kathmandu Holdings 11% to NZ$1.50 on the back of these upgrades. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Kathmandu Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at NZ$1.55 and the most bearish at NZ$1.44 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Kathmandu Holdings is an easy business to forecast or the underlying assumptions are obvious.
Thank you Tomm :t_up:
It's also have nice dividends .
Lower its expectations, otherwise another SKT. The article does not include goodwill.......any concern about this? The revenue is definitely down a bit, according to its previous announcements.
En, you are right, just not too hype. I am thinking of HLG......loss, but SP.....
Besides, 23th of Sep is also a big date for RBNZ Monetary Policy Review to announce whether cuts on OCR.
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-po...rate-decisions
I expect a not so great report. Its always better in this times to keep calm .
SP took a dump today. Any reason?
thank goodness a share doing what its supposed to in a global pandemic... remember this one is global... pandemic global... terrible global situation,,, please sell your shares now... we are waiting thank you.
Just as well low consumer confidence doesn’t affect Kathmandu
https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wib...Westpac_NZ.pdf
Only an economist could say this - Low levels of confidence are weighing on spending appetites. That’s being seen across all age groups and income brackets.
That is right. I am thinking of trading side. THL, MHJ, HLG and BGP all had some announcements before releasing the annual report. All of them SP hit on the ground, then starting shot. All are in retail sector. After US tech sector shocked up, some money just flew into defensive sectors for a week or two. KMD heads to the south and hit the bottom yesterday. Hopefully it will go up again with others. The time lag implies that it may have a not so good earning for FY 2020, compared with others. BGP FY2020 is ended at 26th Jan 2020, has not been tested by Covid19.
volumes being traded for the past hour. price is being pushed up. :t_up:
"McLiesh said the unemployment rate was expected to peak at 7.8 percent in the March 2022 quarter, both lower and later than had been predicted in the Budget (which had forecast a peak of 9.8 percent in September 2020)."
sell the rallies.....
Big late trade today :scared:
$1.220 919,409 $1,121,678.98 17:20
Not sure what to expect, I'm contemplating selling on Tuesday.
KMD had a good move today in the lead up to the earnings report.
Yep, they paint a positive picture of the future when they announce results we’ll see 150/160 pretty quickly
I wouldn’t be selling tomorrow as per your previous post.
There has been some selling from big holders. But as Winner (n) has said models are out the door and i certainly hope so.
Pretty good presentation re results
Once punters get over the miserable $8m profit bit and see the potential the share price will head to 170's
There's so many types of profit mentioned and so many adjustments etc etc i wonder what the real picture is?
Maybe trying to bambozzle us with science
Seems hard to argue with a 50% increase in group sales and 50% plus increase in online sales. It all looks rather promising going forward. Still appears good value as one of the few retail stocks well below its 200M.
Sold out at 1.27 on Monday. Buy the rumour, sell the news rings true. Good opportunity to buy back soon.
The results were quite bad and expected. Back down to $1.10-$1.15 before we get back above $1.30.
Pretty good result could have been a lot worse. dropped to 117. very hard to pick how the market will read this one but it not going bust which was the though back in april.
highest volume this year, alot of stock changed hands today
Wonder if the Norwegians still hold any .... may have got out completely seeing they weren't that keen on participating in the capital raise
Fairly solid rebound once the report speculators ran back to the shadows! ;) Report wasn't amazing enough to spark a buy up like HLG, but not terrible either and prospects look more positive. I topped up a little once it bounced.
it should continue to bounce about. Great trading stock. Many thanks to those who bought and sold....
Hard to work out if this is good or bad but the main thing is that the market thinks it's very good
Obviously not a disaster though
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/363853
its very very good! super - almost better than HLG... :eek2: im going to set a stall when i get back to europe to sell second hand rip curl surf tops in Landskrona and at the fake surf beach at helsingborg.
not joking... well play abba ... bound to drive every shopper for cover...
remember a lot of Kiwis will be coming home in the next 5 years and as the PM says be kind. They will have been exposed to all sorts of things and wont be used to a lot of things... old and new...
"...Group online sales for the 16 full weeks ended 15 November 2020 were +37.0% above last year"
Great result KMD, what percentage is online of total sales.
Why did KMD stop trading at this time ?
if this is the price with shop doors mainly closed , hate to see if they open world wide and sales increase ... and travel restarts safer then eve, much safer.
What on EARTH could be more exciting in the Australian public service than running KMD? See yah later Xavier.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/364149
Hopefully his replacement will bring some innovation of value to the company. Their trading pattern is really ingrained in the company now, so anyone just about could continue to run the company in its present format.
"Xavier" obviously does not surf!
yes im afraid the company profile now needs some outdoor business people ... but its got a global footprint and HLG does not yet..
im opening up landskrona's first outdoor stall in 2022...
Interesting ... CEO leaving and director buying:
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...189/336418.pdf
Looks like director David Bowman concluded that Xavier leaving does add value to the company :t_up:
Surely not going to Aus Post ....famous for its Cartier gifts
I am sure there is a lot of work that can be done on the rip curl brand, to bring it up to a super product line.
it going to be a ripper!
:eek2:
So Xavier is heading to Australian trade commission.
https://www.nbr.co.nz/story/kathmand...xecutive-quits
Went into their Sylvia Park store on the weekend. You might consider it their premier store. Not a lot of traffic at prime time around lunch. I might add that right next door is Macpac, and they were humming. Perhaps kiwi shoppers are more discerning about quality?
depends what product your buying, some of my mac pac is indestructible and some of the smaller pacs have been pretty crappy.
bit of a take off this morning....
the Ripper happen months ago when KMD's issued shares multiply exponentally in front of everyone's eyes (to keep worried banker happy) , enough to make any Dividend Hunter's eyes water badly.. ;)
Have Sales ripped up all past records yet - by at least 200% to make up for this increased EPS spread ? or not likely ? ;)
Jeez, this is a busy thread ... just hope for them that their Christmas sales have been better than the respective hype around share trader :):
On a more positive note: Just noticed that NZ Superfund smashed one week ago through the magical 5% barrier (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...110/338686.pdf) - they are now a proud substntial share holder and are holding 5.001% of all KMD shares. Recon they hope for a busy summer ...
Probably waiting for news on new CEO or no group CEO here after.
Anyway I’ve been accumulating this for some time.
I'm actually quite surprise that given the booming retail sector (HGL, WHS etc) we are not seeing some of that sentiment spilling over into KMD. Acknowledged that it does have heavy international exposure via RC and has been worst hit by the lack of tourists then most but I would have expected some momentum toward a SP of 1.40. Having said that, anytime I go near our local store it does seem fairly dead (like this thread).
I bought in same time I did with HLG a month ago. Interesting to see if their sales figures have been impacted in Aust, US and UK markets with Covid.
I think local store foot traffic is seasonal too.
its a trade till its Post Pandemic.
Maybe on the rise now, surely sales were up during the last qtr. Hopefully a good report to be had.
rading Update
12/2/2021, 9:37 amMKTUPDTEKATHMANDU HOLDINGS LIMITED
ASX / NZX / MEDIA ANNOUNCEMENT
12 February 2021
Record Rip Curl performance underpins operating profit improvement and validates the diversification strategy of the Group
• Half year sales growth reflects the successful integration of Rip Curl and the benefit of a diversified portfolio of brands
• Group EBITDA (1) (unaudited) above last year
• Rip Curl achieved substantial sales growth in key global markets despite COVID-19 disruptions, with strong wholesale orders for the second half year
• Kathmandu sales impacted by low demand for insulation and rainwear resulting from the lack of international travelers to the Northern Hemisphere
• Oboz sales above last year driven by product innovation, with order book well above pre-COVID-19 levels
Kathmandu Holdings Limited (NZX / ASX: KMD) (the Group) today provides the following update on its unaudited trading performance for the six months ended 31 January 2021 (1H FY21).
Group total sales for 1H FY21 were c.+12% above last year, including a full six month contribution from Rip Curl. EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $47 million to $49 million, including government subsidies and the realisation of cost synergies. Group Net Debt is expected to be c.$7 million following careful working capital management and the $207m capital raise in 2020.
On a pro-forma basis (relative to the same period last year including three months of Rip Curl pre-acquisition):
• Group direct to consumer same store sales, including online, for the 27 full weeks ended 31 January 2021:
o -10.3% adjusted for lockdown closures (2), with Rip Curl +21.0% and Kathmandu -30.0%
o -18.5% unadjusted, with Rip Curl +7.4% and Kathmandu -35.4%
o Online represents 13.0% of direct to consumer sales, up from 8.9% last year
• Group wholesale sales for the six months ended 31 January 2021 were only -11.5% below the same period last year despite April / May COVID-19 lockdowns significantly impacting the sell-in period, with Rip Curl -15.0%, and Oboz +3.8%.
During the half, trade at a number of the Group’s stores continued to be disrupted by COVID-19. 60 Greater Melbourne stores were closed for over 11 weeks during the second lockdown, and 14 Auckland stores were closed for over two weeks. Trading in Greater Sydney was affected over the Christmas period by the Northern Beaches outbreak. Airport stores in Australia as well as Rip Curl stores in Hawaii, Bali and Europe are still impacted adversely by either COVID-19 related travel restrictions or government mandated lockdowns and closures.
Commenting on the result, Group CEO Xavier Simonet said:
“Our improved first half operating profit underlines the resilience of our Group and validates the diversification strategy, launched through the successful acquisitions and integrations of Rip Curl and Oboz.”
“Rip Curl’s record first half performance highlights the strength of its brand and quality technical products. Rip Curl’s direct to consumer business will now begin the Northern Hemisphere summer with strong momentum. Forward orders for the Rip Curl wholesale business are above pre-COVID-19 levels, with encouraging early indications for future seasons.”
“Kathmandu enjoyed robust sales growth in camping categories, with renewed interest in local travel and adventure activities within Australia and New Zealand. However, its performance was heavily impacted by low demand for insulation and rainwear resulting from the lack of international travelers to the Northern Hemisphere. To put the first half performance in context, Kathmandu’s profit weighting has historically been heavily weighted to the second half year, when winter in Australasia drives demand for insulation and rainwear.”
“Oboz have delivered sales growth year on year, with the product innovation strategy pursued by the new Oboz management team reflecting in the forward order book, which is tracking well above pre-COVID-19 levels.”
Following the resignation of Group CEO Xavier Simonet, the Board has initiated a search process for his replacement. Mr. Simonet continues to work through his six-month notice period.
The Group intends to release the full result for the half year on Tuesday 23 March 2021. An announcement regarding dividend resumption will be made at that time.
- ENDS -
Update seems to say without Rip Curl and Oboz and wage subsidies Kathmandu would be in dire straights
*Sniff* "Dividend Resumption"
Hahahahaha .. Yeah right cobber -- less bits in the very bottom of a larger pot being spread twice as far .. ;)
but then most already suspected that would be the case .. ;)
better in the second half eh? (from Kathmandu itself)
Bought some today and looking for more later this week if removal from ASX300 causes dump
Rod Duke doesn't seem that excited about Kathmandu
Jury out on whether Rip Curl is working and with the managing director going ne questions if their focus and capacity to compete exists ......and he is a bit coy and what Briscoes are going to do with their holding.
From Businessdesk
Stellar result and great buying last week
we had a pile on sale and had to BUY BACK IN.
we love this stocks liquidity . And RIP CURL polar neck tops were the best,
Opening a stall in sweden in 2023.
Not sure I would call it "stellar", but yes, it was promising and so much better than the year before. Looks like they got the corner, and hey - they are even back paying a divie, even if it is (in NZ) not imputed. Positive outlook - winter is coming and tourism no doubt will improve compared to the year gone by.
Discl: happy holder;
SP up two to 140... consolidated, looking stronger
Closed up on high volume, almost 6m shares... someone is accumulating
yes we dont have enough of them.
well done to those who bought big at the cap raise and average 70 and under..
you are the BRAVE ONES!
(CNBC Brave Ones).
Travel will return and you will see people from all over the world come here. Of course i may well be going the other way and passing them.
Of course the girl from Czechoslovakia wont be bringing her friends back as she got shot at in gisborne that night, but others will and they will shop at KMD.
Rod Duke Dreaming of surfing the rip Curl wave. is he a long board man is he?.
Maybe time they got it on with Papa Surf from AFT.
As I thought -- double the number of shares translates into half the Prior Interim div 2.0 cps AUD
with no imputation credits (the standard KMD Interim pattern)
Not bad in the circumstances I guess .. normalised FY I guess Final 4.0 - 5.0 with Imp Credits
assuming post covid trading bubble effects have been shaken out of the rug to get there .. ;)
Clearly - Yarra Capital management do see value at this price - they bought themselves a wee parcel of 8.36%:
https://announcements.nzx.com/detail/370718
Good memory! However - this does not make the picture clearer.
Yarra submitted last December a change of interest notice saying that they now hold 72,436,067 shares.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...430/336728.pdf
Today they submitted a "notice of initial substantial holder" claiming a holding of 59,277,176 shares.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...718/344244.pdf
WTF? What happened with the 72 mil odd they owned last year?
Well, yes - but this was before they said that they hold 72.4m shares on Dec 1st, 2020.
No later notice after that (like end of substantial holding or change of substantial holding) until they report today an initial public holding of 59.2 m shares.
Funny that - did they just forget to notify the market that they first sold down below the 5% threshold (if that's what it was) after Dec 1st ?
Gut feel for SP breakout today or in the near term .... heading up on volume. Hitting top of intra-day range. Chartists what do you think.
Not a chartist ... but its Golden Cross time today!
Attachment 12487
The two analysts on market screener are exuberant as well (consensus forecast $1.73, straight BUY rating), winter is coming (traditionally the better season for Kathmandu) it is getting colder today and the sun is shining (which will drive customers into the shops ....). What can possibly go wrong?
Interesting:
Attachment 12488
Blue Line: KMD
Yellow line: HLG
I didn't realize that these two are that strongly correlated. Interesting as well, if one of them was lagging in the past, the other typically caught up in a matter of months. Currently HLG is significantly higher - this the time for KMD to catch up again?
Kathmandu (brand) doing a bit of strategic branding etc etc
One retail guru said - Pretty interesting strategic shift with Kathmandu now aiming to become some hybrid between Hallensteins and Glassons.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/125...s-on-under-35s