PEB is in a linear regression channel
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PEB is in a linear regression channel
http://www.computerworld.co.nz/artic..._companies_us/
“The trip is about giving New Zealand companies access to key business people in San Francisco and Silicon Valley, and generating business opportunities and potential investment options,” Adams says.
Bizarrely, this is starting to sound a little like the DIL thread.
What I am seeing is a large investor selling with perhaps a minority of nervous nellies along for the ride. The 6% recovery in the last couple of days is suggestive that the seller may be done or is taking a hiatus for now.
IMO the forward growth story for PEB is just way too strong for any transient weakness to take hold. The closer we get to half year reporting the more the market may well anticipate this growth.
but the recovery is on very thin volume mac, such as yesterday, so a large possibility the large seller has not yet finished.
It could well move into a consolidation period at 49-51 cents, depends on out large seller though eh?
Agree with the story.
Its a great announcement - would love to know by how much cxBladderDetect outperformed cytology in the study. A wide margin sounds great though.
Also liked: "We look forward to having this product more widely used in New Zealand’s healthcare programmes, thus benefiting DHBs, clinicians and patients alike."
It all adds to the saleability of the product in the US - fantastic.
I think you are right AndyLP, there may not be any significant new news in this announcement, but the timing of its release and it's focus suggests perhaps that the DHB's may now be at a tipping point of getting their order books out now that surely all those trials have been done and dusted to some level of satisfaction.
I think it is a good announcement - yes we already know that - but good to hear the User Programmes, linked to DHBs (for credibility) have gone well and that the results will be "published by way of a presentation at the Urological Society of Australia and New Zealand (USANZ) Annual Scientific Meeting in March 2014."
It's all about providing shareholders confidence in the product and I think this helps with that a lot. Perhaps this is what people were wanting out of the AGM and Darling realised that by not releasing the information at that event he injured the share price? Better late than never in providing such assurances. Buy depth is building at 51cps.
It all good but what we really need is a Customers/LUGs to sign up in the US before share price really moves. Mr Market is looking for sales to bring in $$$.
Some big sellers ay....if there weren't this would shoot back up to 60cps in short order I would think. I've been impressed that 50cps has been holding up despite the big seller. I've decided to join the PEB team again.
Is the 90% not quite as conclusive as the American study?
Also agree it will take some sales info for the share price to get back to 60c plus.
Still reasonably high risk because of lack of sales but if the info and results presented are correct, it should only be a matter of time. IMO a lovely spot in the risk/reward scenario and I'm still topping up.
There is an institutional seller or sellers in the market at the moment. Any ideas who?
And could that latest announcement be timed to facilitate said institution?
Also don't see it as necessarily a bad thing as instos sell for all sorts of reasons and very often their timing isn't optimal.
If around 50c is good buying, then it does provide a temporary window of oportunity IMO.
Disc. Hold quite a few so I'm biased.
While that seller keeps loading at 52c should keep the price in check.
I'm thinking the 'seller' finished last week with that 1m trade at 49. I think it went to a brokers account, and it is being sold out as we speak. If I am right, then this 52 line contains the last of the overhang. Notice the 53 line was pulled (possibly added to 52?)
I have been known to be wrong :ohmy: .....make your own minds up, as always
Over the last couple of months I’ve read on this thread, more than once actually, that PEB have not yet made significant sales. I’d like to take a post to add, I hope, some clarification;
PEB’s 20 month schedule (image below) was established during their capital raising in 2011, which allowed for the launching of tests within their planned US laboratory in March 2013. We must all be satisfied that PEB achieved CLIA registration and completed the lab on budget and schedule.
First US sales were achieved on 1st July and PEB advised that they have set “an ambitious sales target for its start-up year in 2013 which it expects to meet” (image below).
So at this point in time, less than a couple of months after commencement, we should not expect a huge sales announcement as not even PEB can sell before they actually plan to do so. This will come, if PEB are true to form, when planned.
The recent volatility in SP IMO is due entirely to PEB not announcing the 2013 sales guidance which we know they have set. Some don’t mind volatility as it’s an opportunity to buy at a discount, probably the best buy on the market at present, but I’d rather PEB just provided the guidance.
Attachment 4806
Attachment 4807
I’m an investor rather than a trader, so I’m happy to take advice on short term moves in SP from yourself and others. Not that I really mind too much either being in PEB for the five year plan.
What I do see is a significantly undervalued stock, particularly so at present, with enormous potential growth ahead.
First sales results will be available in a little over two months in late November at HY14 reporting.
I'm one of those, today even. The fact remains, no significant sales have been made. Whether they should have been or could have been or are projected to be, is not the point I was making. It's just that as of now, as far as the market knows, they haven't.
My view is that sales momentum may take a while to build, urologists being a conservative bunch, but when underway could build rapidly, hence the present buying opportunity, with some large sellers around and a share price with the lid on it.
Obviously though, still a lot of risk, because for whatever reason, those sales may still not eventuate.
Disc. Hold quite a few, so I'm biased.
"We look forward to having this product more widely used in New Zealand's healthcare programmes, thus benefiting DHBs, clinicians and
patients alike."
I'm another holder who is still sceptical about actual sales at the moment but I did like this comment made by the commercial manager. To me it is a strong indication that user programme clients are strongly expected to take up the test in full. The Canterbury DHB would be a good account to hold having a large population base to work from. I'm like most others though that when initial sales are indicated this thing might go through the roof pretty quick. A bit little Charlie in the chocolate factory breaking the glass ceiling in that wonkamobile.
Very unlikely (but possible). An SSH of 1% movement would have had to been filed by now, indicating it's someone already under the 5% threshold. Sure, it's still possible if there have been a couple of sellers and he hasn't sold 2.8mil yet... I certainly wouldn't speculate that it's him though.
Oh and the sales we are all hoping for will be released later this year (the sales we are expecting would be in line with the forecasted ones...).
Oh, well bad luck me for not having access to non-public registry information.
You are indeed speculating.....speculating that K One W One will continue selling down.
Anybody else whose private dealings you would like to disclose? Thats already Milford and Tindall......
I'd like to speculate...... You are a wet behind the ears trainee broker or fundie with a new toy?
pray do tell us more
Why all the concern about who owns what. I have as many of these as I can afford based on my best judgement, which is probably the same for most others. Disclosure rules are there
to alert any other shareholder to any substantial shareholder who may be acquiring a majority. I believe that the spread with PEB is sufficient to keep things on an even keel at the moment, a good time to watch out may be when it takes off and see who is getting amongst it if possible. Dont think picking up your CxBladder kit at the Warehouse will go too well though but you never know.:)
I cant. And that tells me that what we are dealing with here is an upfront, close to the chest, true to their word company producing planned on time and on budget milestones, exhibiting great confidence in their products both developed and in the pipeline. As they have done all this and are progressing along is there anything in that that gives you cause to think that there will be a less than satisfactory outcome?
The line is being drawn in the sand on this one (seems to be about 50c)-
Dont muck about
you'll surely miss out.
Nuff said
Miner
Well found Hancocks - more grist for the mill so to speak.:)
As the user programmes with the various health organisations get completed, the evidence that cxbladder is a very accurate test will grow. This will naturally gain more attention from third parties, which has happened already. If per chance, Pacific Edge does not get the sales it expects, it will not be down to the quality of the test. More likely due to a small company not getting market penetration. Personally, I think they will get there.
But if the shareprice remains around the level it is, a bigger fish could come along and offer a takeover price at around a 100% premium, which is high by NZ takeover standards, and snap up cxbladder for $300m or so.
Just a thought.
And who is going to agree to all that, current shareholders? I think not,
our underwear probably remains sacrosanct until about 10.00. If it doesn't, then it should.
This has been discussed at length and it has been established that a takeover bid is not in the best interests of anybody given the potential. Why would they after all this effort and planning sell out to some halfbaked enteprise and watch it all turn to custard. Whats the point?
I see each user programme as being more of a marketing tool than as just yet another clinical trial. They are PEB's equivalent of a salesperson jamming their foot in your front door.
The more user programmes in the US, the more convinced, one would hope, that all those LUG account managers will be to sign up contracts. The more user programmes and trials the better, bring em on.
Personally I wouldn't be a seller at around one dollar , but I know that fund managers & large shareholders don't tend to have the same attachment to shares that small holders often have. Harbour Asset Management , Superlife, etc will sell if they are sitting on large profits and can achieve a quicker return. Masfen has already taken some profit . I'm not saying it would be good, but I wouldn't be surprised if it happened .
What's your thoughts on this Brighton? As far as I can see, CxBladder is the most accurate test on the market and should take over and be more successful (because of its accuracy and ability to grade cancers) than NMP22. The market sizes are quite large, around 2 million potential test per year in the US, possibly 1.5 million in Europe (similar sized, but healthier market, this is an estimate) plus the rest of the world once they get their act together. At $550 a test in the US and possibly a gross profit margin of 50% (which is what Alere, the makers of NMP22 report as obtaining), you are talking about big $$$.
Like others have said, @ 10% of the US market only we are talking about $110 million revenue, $55 million profit, 19c EPS. And if its as good as it appears, we could be looking at 50% market penetration in a few years, requiring of course substantial expansion on PEB's behalf, but translating to $550 million revenue, $225 million profit and 75c EPS.
And that would just be the US figures. Add in Europe and we are talking a third more again (assuming less profit margin) if it grows at the same rate....
I understand it's all potentials until people start buying. That there are politics involved which could get in the way. But competition appears to be years behind and accuracy over current methods is miles ahead. Once patients know that the product exists I am sure they will start demanding it.
Excellent post Bobbles, great to see something backed up by reasoning rather than emotion. Clearly huge potential for this company.
I find your comment about politics getting in the way very interesting. It's no secret businesses will try and protect their income. Could this be a major hurdle for them - more powerful companies spending big dollars to maintain status quo or hold PEB out for their own products?
A novelbladder cancer detection test an entrant in the NZ Innovators Awards .... along with the innovative cardboard pet casket range
http://www.idealog.co.nz/blog/2013/0...lists-revealed
There is a peoples choice award as well ... you guys better get organised
A novel bladder cancer detection test an entrant in the NZ Innovators Awards .... along with the innovative cardboard pet casket range
http://www.idealog.co.nz/blog/2013/0...lists-revealed
There is a peoples choice award as well ... you guys better get organised
We look set for a move up today...seller has not appeared....well positioned....
Yup, should've hold onto my parcel... dammit
Let's not forget that health professionals will gravitate toward superior medical solutions that ultimately improve a patient’s health. There is also the power of patient demand, and word of mouth that we must not underestimate.
Price point is important and health professionals will pay a premium for a product like cxbladder that ultimately both better benefits the patient and also reduces overall work up costs.
This link provides an example in application, it independently compares cxbladder to the existing market competition NMP22. Alere the maker of NMP22 claim was that NMP22 was the only FDA approved non lab diagnostic test kit.
http://bladdercancerfight.blogspot.c...omparison.html
Yeah that's them:
Innovation in Health and Science
Sponsored by Ko Awatea CMDHB
Bodystance Ltd - Backpod™
Footfalls and Heartbeats Ltd (FHL) - Footfalls and Heartbeats
Pacific Edge - Cxbladder; A novel bladder cancer detection test
Texus Fibre Ltd Helix Non - Woven Natural Composite Materials
University of Otago - X-imm24
Attachment 4811
Attachment 4812
This is the very basic modelling I have done at the moment for PEB. There are just way too many unknowns for further analysis as far as I am concerned, but it does go to show you that if they are successful, they should be very successful!
Note that the market sizes are estimates based on comparative population sizes. The only market size we really know about is the US at around 2 million, the rest are extrapolated, but assume the US is unhealthier by 25% and therefore the rest are smaller even after considering population size.
Ignore the blue column, this was part of another analysis.
This does not take into account growth, year on year etc, it simply is a model which has % market penetration. I have assumed a lesser amount in NZD for the tests than they may actually be sold for and assume the penetration in each market to be the same (obviously it won't be in reality but you get the idea).
Those figures look fine blobbles and are in rough alignment with PEB’s own provision of market penetration gross profit estimates.
We must be cautious in anticipating too much at HY14 reporting. PEB commenced sales within the US on 1st July 2013, thus there are 3 months of sales accumulation to the end of the reporting period on 30th September 2013.
The five US sales staff are both new to the company and the technology, and during this 3 month period we should regard them as being in training. Customer relationships will also just be starting to be identified and formed.
Based on nothing more than PEB’s achievements in the NZ and Australia market to date, a HY14 sales figure of just a couple of hundred tests would be an exceptional result in my opinion. Although we should expect the ramp up to start in earnest in the second half year to FY14.
My FA of the forward revenue stream to $100M provides me with an understanding that PEB may well be a $5 stock in FY16, however, it will not be a straight line, a ramp up is required.
I agree that it is more difficult to estimate early revenues without better guidance from PEB. My efforts in tracking and following PEB over the last 12 months, and anticipating sales from the information we do have, provide me with a FY14 valuation of $1.25.
Seems like our seller has left the building..
I see from your posts that you suggest a Gross Profit of 50% and I believe you use those figures directly to determine EPS. I have a vague memory that the projected Gross Profit for PEB is actually higher.
Gross profit is generally based on the direct cost (manufacture) of sales but will definitely exclude a number of possibly significant items: Income Tax, Interest, Depreciation of Assets etc and may include much more.
I believe your EPS figures would be a lot more realistic if you work on a 20-25% profit/revenue margin in a few years time.
I seem to recall a comment from PEB that it would be two years (FY 2015?) before they had a positive cash flow.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
It was a block crossing Moosie, not part of the auction. These are usually just shifting across nominee companys or such like.
ST is giving away flags in SF at the moment, and there was a distinct lack of selling pressure today, as predicted on this channel yesterday.
whether what his 'broker' is saying is true or not, time will tell, but for now I am very happy being long
If my memory is right, it looks like it's pretty much the exact same size as the two off market transactions the other day combined.
My prediction after talking to a J & J executive - PEB will be taken over soon.
$1 will just about do it. for the first 50%.
5 - 10% is probably the worst prediction possible... (no offence intended)
A product like CX bladder will have a seemingly binary outcome, success or failure. You only have to look at other healthcare diagnostics/prognostics or even CX bladders penetration in the NZ Market to realise this.
Rough NZ numbers, obtained from DHB reach by population and a little bit of algebra!
Mid Central on board, (3.8% of NZ market ,400 tests, pop'n reach 166,000). Add Canterbury (11.6% of NZ market ,1210 tests, pop'n reach 502,000) and Waitemata (12.2% of NZ market ,1274 tests, pop'n reach 528,500) and you are up to 27.6% of the NZ market that PEB has established (Not bad penetration in 2-3 years). Canterbury and Waitemata not gauranteed but in my view highly probable.
I posted previosuly about the success of other diagnostics and prognostics and their ability to penetrate their products respective markets. Once again, a seemingly binary outcome, where you obtain high market penetration (circa 80%+) or failure (0%)
This is the game PEB are in and I like it.
If you are on top and have the best product you will win, until the day your IP gets surpassed... (however long that is I dont know but is a risk that must not be lost on everyone)
Anyway may it be onwards and upwards and lets hope for US success where I am expecting small USD figures to be flowing in through H1 FY15!
Disc: Holding A lot
Why? Please include your own analysis.
I thought we could show each other our respective analyses, or should we just say "YES" and "NO" and "MAYBE".
I completely accept that over 30-40% penetration maybe pie-in-the-sky dreaming which is not likely to eventuate. But please someone offer some backed up evidence to the contrary. Why only 5-10% Brighton? It appears to be the best test available.
I would prob start to try and fine tune your numbers a little...
Who are the current incumbents and what are their financials/market share/pricing structures/partnerships etc...aim is to understand the current market situation.
Who is PEB selling to. Are they distributors who supply the market/hospitals etc or are they going direct. Direct sales to clinics and hospitals will take decades. Selling to large distributors will potentially give market access but hurt margins.
I am skepitical a hospital/distributor/clinic etc will just dump a tried and tested product for an unknown kiwi product. However if the product is so revolutionary then this can possibly be ignored. Most of the health system in the US is slow and traditional and won't willingly buy from an unknown company.
Another piece of information I would be looking for is a "sales announcement" indicating they have secured a large distributor and/or the product is flying of the shelf and they can keep up. If I don't hear this quickly I would doubt the market potential of the product in the US.
Cross reference this with PEB sales forecasts then combine the two to get a more accurate investment picture.
It's nice to see a bit of cxbladder discussion on the US bladder cancer blog sites, this one has a fair question to ask;
http://www.inspire.com/groups/bladde...tream-already/
They have indeed. I came across the below image last night from the 2011 capital raising. Shows how they get to $100m in 5 years.
Also gives us something definitive by which to compare how the company thinks they will go with how they actually go. We know sales started 1st of July, so for the 1st of July 2014 we want to see 9,128 tests sold for the company to be 'on track' for their $100m in 5 years.
Agree that this year's end of year reporting won't give us any real indication as to how they are going, as sales momentum takes a bit to build up.
Attachment 4819
Yes those figures are for the US alone; I haven't seen figures for other regions. Certainly if they achieve anywhere near that kind of success in the US we could all be holding an absolute goldmine, both in its own right and when you start to think about global prospects.
If PEB can close at or above 56 today it is excellent news TA wise, so here's hoping for that as well.
that was a quick recovery..
wow 57 cents...
Once 59 and 60 c sells are taken....( about 170,000 shares ) there are practically no other shares to be brought.
That can change in a instant though.
First sniff of sales at or above expectations... this stock will fly.
Just gone 59cents . nice
59c... being nibbled
Currently 77330 available at 59c 108230 at 60c 833 at 61c 8333 at 62c................that's it.
Any one pick up some at 48c? Nice work if you did...
Trading good old linear regression channels seem to be working these days ... DIL and FBU good recent examples (at least 2 I am interested in)
PEB looking promising for a breakout of a quite a long term downtrend (nearly 9 month so far) .... 63 cents is needed for a breakout
The bounce of the bottom of the channel sub 50 has been profitable so far ..... hopefully this might turn into a long term trade ..... but out of the top of the channel proves to be resistance
I picked some up on Tuesday at 51cps...pretty happy that I did so!! Watching this rise is great entertainment, and very distracting! Looks like a great upward breakout....up and up she goes where it will stop nobody knows.....
You prob bought my parcel at 51 cents blake... sighs....
Well all of my buy signals are going off, but as Moosie said the afternoon can change things. A break past the 58-61 cent range would be a HUGE buy signal.
Oi, settle down everyone, we havent even got back to the previous high ,YET, but the way things are going it might not be too long.:):):):)
Good point Balance. I don't see the sellers lining up as of yet at the 59/60cps mark, perhaps people have these kinds of issues in mind? There just seems to be so much potential with this stock - I'm happy to have purchased and will hold on now, unless something changes.
Moosie - the pros must be a long lunch today ....or just not interested in PEB because of low volumes
Agree completely. Virtually all the technicals are indicating BUY, however at this point I suspect most traders would wait for a break of 61 before getting in as they have missed the boat. The sellers at 59 and 60 will be traders exiting their positions with a nice healthy profit for the week (and good on them). The big question is whether there are any large sellers left that will start off-loading at 59-60. There has been a good shake out on large volume so it's possible they are all gone for now. If they are gone then I suspect we may see a break of 61 and a nice wee run as all the traders pile in. I watch with interest!
Disc: Holding.
I bought yesterday morning and will hold. This is not the sort of stock to day-trade or even week-trade. It goes into the bottom drawer along with NTL, ERA, WHN, JPR and PDN.
If it continues to climb as it has today to approach $1, I will be offering all positive contributors to this thread a beer of their choice.
BC
Just a feeling that there's s big buyer out there as there's a Mexican standoff at 58/59c.
No crossings happening.
Will buyer pay up?
Good steady progress in the right direction based on some solid news regarding the Nz perspective.
Just a thought Baller- if you really must trade this share why dont you get a cushion ie buy a few and put them away in an investment portfolio. Then put the rest into trading- could be wrong but I get the feeling you may make more out of the investment block in the long run- but I guess there is always the thrilllllllllll of the chase.
This doesnt appear to be a short term share to me especially with other products coming along. If they are all equally non invasive and accurate then 58/59 cents is more likely to be the dividend than the share price- that may be a slight exaggeration but you never know:)