Attachment 4057Big picture aussie , looks like a triangle on daily,
this is what im hoping could be a ride for 800+ pips to the short side.
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Attachment 4057Big picture aussie , looks like a triangle on daily,
this is what im hoping could be a ride for 800+ pips to the short side.
the final wave higher did eventually materialise but with a more significant retrace than i anticipated , i kept the faith in the count and got another long position on .
the rsi has been a reasonable indicator of trend change when it has entered overbought and is currently hinting at an uptrend that may struggle higher from here .
target was 1.0480 which was touched but i will hang on for a little more then look for a short entry gl
+ 1200 pips
seems like a logical place to close longs , 3 failed attempts to break 1.0530 at channel resistance
closed for 1300+ pips at 1.0520
shorts on 1.0520 stops at 1.0560
i feel there may be more upside into 1.06 - 1.07 but time for a retracement and may be wrong and this could be the start of a more signifcant move south.
weekly looking bearishAttachment 4082
still holding short with 2 shorts on from 1.0570 and 1.0530 + 800 pips
target aroung 1.01 where i would expect some reaction , where is everyone?
Attachment 4110
Nice trades DA :t_up:
Hi DA sorry for the late reply but been busy with other stuff,just fired up some charts and see that EUR/USD has broken to the top side of my north bound channel on the daily and is now also above a fairly long term downtrend line I have.
Always have a look at what you post:),hope all going well.
Cheers
Miner
Just had a look,held obove my lines and up 300 odd pips :).
Spot on and a nice trade. I personally hold a little sceptism about the legs on this move.
It was well telegraphed and with the whole world short usd i like the usd long side , but very
counter trend trade which requires extreme caution.
Gl guys and good to see a few posts
Hi DA,just had a look and put on another 200 odd pips, got to get the odd one right:eek2:,would have taken out a few shorts,with eur/usd it's a bit of a case of which one is further up sh*t creek than the other:confused:,so can get a bit dodgy playing it.
maybe something significant happening to the downside in the aud.
there is a trendline up there at 1.06 , with a potential double top, dailies posted a bearish evening star and some fib lines too.
like i said before the world is short the usd so plenty of fuel for a good run south .
could QE3 be old news, 2 short trades on for 400+
i suspect with a lot of upperward momentum there may be a few more twists but lets see .
Attachment 4134
Interesting article here on what's driving the AUD. A few clues relevant to the NZD, given our close correlation to AUD.
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/...apt=commentary
From your businessspectator.com.au article.
We are not much better. Since 1974 NZ's current account has always been in the red, because even in good years any trade surplus is overwhelmed by the enormous interest and dividend payment.Quote:
For over three decades Australia has persistently run a current account deficit, averaging close to 4 per cent of GDP over the period.
NZD (&AUD) looking heavy, Will add to my shorts with a break of .8180 (apparently a few SL orders at that level)
Anyone else catching any of this?
The NZD is a resilient beast isn’t it. Particularly given EUR, AUD and Gold’s weakness (or USD strength; however you want to view it)
How’s everyone’s trading going? Any trade setup ideas out there?
7.3% unemployment rate, that’s a shocker NZ!!
NZD down almost 1c
Anybody having trouble logging into IG markets this morning?
New Zealanddollar could fall to a level not seen in about three years in the next few months.
I believe NZ dollar will go down sharply due to new development. It is overpriced by 45% against USD. During last couple of years it has appreciated by more than 50% against some Asian currencies. Now this cycle has reversed and NZD will go down not only against USD but also against some Asian currencies. I cannot understand reason behind appreciation of NZD. May be some carry traders including speculators must have parked their money in NZD. Now one by one currency players are unwinding their positions in both AUD and NZD. When everybody tries to take out of money from both AUD and NZD these currencies can tumble to the one of the lowest levels.
Now analysts including global banking analysts are revising their year endtarget and target in 2014 for NZD.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...urrencies.html
Wheeler’s Peashooter Finds Its Mark as Kiwi Slumps: Currencies
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=10889664
Skids go under kiwi dollar - may fall further
http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-n...1-91395e7ab788
NZD/USD continues bear trend
Lower NZD will benefit some sectors in the economy and NZ economy will become one of the strongest economies in the world in the long run.
In short NZD dollar has entered a multi-year bear cycle and the dollar(USD) has entered a multi-year bull cycle. However there can be dead cat bounce for NZD time to time. Intermediate trend for NZD is down now.
My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security orcurrency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in theabove hyper-linked sites.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=10891827
Kiwi dollar drops sharply on GDP, Fed news
Both NZD and AUD went up in value during the past four years due to hot overseas money. Now this money is flooding out of these countries. That so called carry trade has ended now. Since these countries floated their dollars, Australia and New Zealand have become favourite hot place for worldwide speculative money trading.
Speculative money flows are short term, and will flee at the sight of trouble. There is a regime shift now. AUSTRALIAN bond futures are weaker as hedge funds reacted tothe situation.
There are some benefits in lower NZ dollar and Australian dollar
1. Rising import cost will bring some relief for New Zealand and Australian -based manufacturers.
2. Export sector will expand. A lower dollar makes export prices more attractive for overseas buyers,boosting our domestic output.
3. New Zealand andAustralian companies with significant overseas operations also will benefitbecause the lower dollar boosts the repatriated profit of companies with overseas operations.
My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security orcurrency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.
In the short run NZD can appreciate against AUD while having some volatility.However both AUD and NZD will continually go down against USD while having small rebound and volatility time to time. In the past NZD has traded as lowas 0.39 against USD. In the recent past NZD traded around 0.80 against USD. Now it is trading around 0.78 against USD. Now the currency cycle has changed and over valued currencies will go down gradually. When AUD go down against USD, NZD too will go down against USD in the same manner. We can also see falling interest rate in Australia and New Zealand too will follow their cousin sooner than later just like in Europe and USA in the past.In short still we have not seen biggest drop in NZD against USD. I believe after bitcoin and gold both NZD and AUD can go down dramatically.
My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency.Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.
Worth shorting the NZD with this Fontera botulism issue?
I believe among currencies NZD has more potential to fall against basket of currencies in the coming months. The kiwi mat stay under pressure in the coming years as well. So far NZD dollar was resilient and this situation may change sooner than later. Arguably one of the overpriced currencies in the world. If we compare with basket of currencies during last 10 years it is at the top of the chart.
My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.
WOW...sudden fall in the kiwi
I don't think the market expected the RB to keep interest rates on hold at 2.5%
If I am correct it is true AUD hit 8 Years low against NZD recently. This situation could change during next 24 months. Just like stock markets currencies also have cycles. I believe NZD could depreciate against USD and GBP faster than AUD in the coming months. In the medium run and long run NZD could depreciate against AUD rapidly. It is time to study currency cycles. I consider NZD as number on overvalued currency in the world now.
My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.
Marketwinner - be good if the NZD fell against the Dirham. Would give a better return on me Marakesh Express (ME) shares
ANd me Aussie share would be a good bet as well eh
When Equity markets drop, money flows into hard currency, which is not the NZD but (yes, still) the USD. This happened last Friday night, and will happen again next time (later this week?) that the S&P500 and DJIA fall sharply away.
My pick is that the NZD/USD will fall over the next month or two. The trigger may be tomorrow morning's FOMC statement, projections and Yellen's speech (7am NZT)...although I'm mindful of the modern Fed placing a very high priority on its comms and market manipulation. She's new and will not want to scare the markets or upset the boat (not just consumer confidence but also her Bankster bosses). I'm expecting lots of positive vibes re the US Economic 'recovery' as she talks it up...which may lift the DOW and S&P500 momentarily, but like any good cocaine hit, the hard reality of excessive debt, relatively high Corporate P/E ratios and derivative risks will bring Equity markets back to earth not long after. It's then that I will be shorting the NZD/USD.
Trading to it.
BC
I purchased BEAR.asx this afternoon - only 5% of my portfolio but it's my first parcel, and if it drops under 1800 I'll be buying more.
Re shorting the NZD, I use Interactive Brokers and pick the best FOREX combination before taking a position. I need to analyse a bit more completely but initial impressions see CAD and NZD both weakening against the USD. AUD probably as well but more so once their Reserve Bank Governor talks it down again, as he likes to do - to bolster his tax revenue from the mining sector and delay interest rate cuts.
That's how I'm reading it at the mo' but like I say, I've not yet completed my FOREX analysis. I'll let you know when I've done so, and have traded a currency combo, if you like - by PM?
Dear Winner69
I gave up following markets which are situated very far away from NZ. So Morocco is not under my radar. I decided to follow Asian Pacific markets including their currencies. Only exception is USA market and USD. Because still it is number one reserve currency in the world. . NZD is still stubborn. Some are talking about parity with AUD now. Do you have any idea about this with your number of years experience in this region of market? Thank and regards
I believe sooner than later we could see end of bull market for both AUD and NZD once we see shift in the currency cycle. We could see bigger drop in NZD and AUD against USD especially during second half this year. Thereafter down trend could continue until 2016 while having volatility. In short both NZD and AUD are more vulnerable now.
My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.
Over valued NZD and AUD are more vulnerable now. We may have to apply ‘Be fearful when others are greedy” for overvalued currencies such as NZD and AUD. The time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell.
http://www.american.com/archive/2014...eally-numbered
My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked site. Please do your own research.
Weaker dairy prices could drive the New Zealand dollar further down. Now BNZ expects the currency to fall to US79c by year's end. I think it may go to around US70c by the end of this year. I also believe it could go down to as low as around US$50 during next 18 months. As I expected we could see fall in New Zealand dollar against other currencies such as AUD, USD and Asian currencies from the second half of this year.
My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency.Please do your own research.
You are right. I believe in stock market, commodity and currency cycles. There are also cycles for business and industries. Some cycles last for a longer period. New Zeeland lost export competitiveness for some industries due to higher NZD. There were some hot money in NZD and AUD as well. What will happen if they unwind those positions? I was wary about forecast for AUD when it was trading nearly par with USD. Remember AUD became so hot I can remember one analyst forecasted that AUD would trade 1.50 of USD. After that what happened was intelligent top currency investors started to short the AUD. For me NZD is more vulnerable than AUD.
How do you think about following link? According to following link money inflows into New Zealand after the financial crisis helped the New Zealand dollar to go up by 85 percent against the U.S. dollar. Even we find these types of things in other countries as well. These are just predictions. Crisis will come when nobody is prepared in any country at any time. It is not limited to New Zealand. Crisis may come. These crises create opportunities too.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecol...d-in-disaster/
My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked site. Please do your own research.
Just like dairy prices both NZD and AUD also will fall against USD in the coming months.
Both AUD and NZD are more vulnerable to bad news. I don’ think that the carry trade position for European and Japanese investors will be attractive hereafter due to uncertainty situation, potential for depreciation of AUD and NZD and the slowing both Australia's terms of trade and commodity prices. Any speculative leaving in long positions could lead to free fall in AUD and NZD.Fed Stimulus Withdrawal policy will also hurt both New Zealand and Aussie Dollar.AB forecasts predict the Australian dollar at US87¢ for the end of September and US85¢ by end 2014.Three is a concern around the sustainability of Australia's triple-A credit rating. According to some analysts the Australian dollar would fall in line with the dip in the iron ore price to below $US100 a tonne. Consumer confidence is also not that good.
My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.
[QUOTE=SimonHouse;485303]Marketwinner - I genuinely am interested in your forex post above. perhaps you might link to the website that you
Simonhouse-Do you think everybody who buys NZD and AUD are investors? No. There are currency speculators, traders and other sophisticated players who use different types of instruments. They didn’t have place to park their hot money. They found places like GOLD, NZD and AUD. They know everyday cannot make money by betting in one direction. We need seasonal adjustments to our portfolio to reduce our risks. We have to adjust our portfolios and strategy by following market trend, currency trend and commodity trend. Lower NZD is good for the export sector. Unemployed youth will have some opportunities in export companies. Continues higher or lower currency rate is not good for any economy. It is a warning sign for coming crisis.
My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.
I very often Google on topic that I like and then I read them If I find something interesting. The most recent was link from Australia. I couldn’t save it and if I find it I will forward it to you. If you type NZD on Google you can find lot of things. Not everything I read take as 100% correct. However there are some intelligent writings on www. There are lot of things such as 10 year chart on currencies on www.
nzforex
asb securities
http://www.centralbanking.com/centra...serve-currency
ECB sees no clear rival to US dollar as global currency
https://www.igot.com/static/send_money
I haven't tried this & don't know any one who has but may be the way of the future ?
I used NZ FOREX--just make sure your bank doesnt charge to take them out (when your ready) some banks charge 1% --I had a $US acc. at ANZ because they dont charge to move them out (eventually back to NZ Forex and back into $Kiwi.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...-ubs-says.html
New Zealand Dollar Vulnernable to Intervention, UBS Says
Its hanging there moosie .... hang in there you brave little battler
Have a breather over the weekend and come back refreshed next week, I be cheering you on
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11314345
NZ dollar holds at six-month low
Not usually a forex guy but haven't been able to ignore this in 2014. Potentially another big week coming up: GDT and Fed meeting as well. Right now we are well through 82c. Not sure where the next stop is - anyone hazard a guess?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...sie-drops.html
Kiwi Slumps on Wheeler Comments; U.S. Dollar at Four-Year High
http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2014/0...the-past-week/
New Zealand dollar shorts were the best trade over the past week
http://www.mauldineconomics.com/fron...erging-markets
Wasn't that many years ago (even in this century) that we only got 40 cents for our buck
As the man said at the end of the article - It is indeed every central bank and country for itself, and that is a recipe for volatility and financial losses. If you think this story has a happy ending, you are not paying attention to history.
For those who love wedgies - one 30 plus years wedge breakout .... and all hell to break out around the world as a consequence as above linked article
https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/news/bl...024758352.html
Blame the cows: Kiwi dollar may stumble
http://www.fxempire.com/fundamental/...2015-forecast/
NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis January 5, 2015 Forecast
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries...eds-kiwi-dollar
Canadian cut bleeds kiwi dollar
Interesting interview for anyone following the USD
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102376873
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11395988
NZ dollar plunges after Aussie rate cut
NZD has blown past 75c!
Can USD go higher and higher in the coming years?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...ar-even-higher
The $9 Trillion Short That’s Seen Sending the Dollar Even Higher
I have just now bought in at .6711. The AUD is also dragging our dollar down. We usually get a pivot around 11:50 - noon...but today's looks like it's come earlier. Check out the NZD/USD downward trendline. It's just touched.
This NZD/USD rate is the lowest it's been since 31 May 2010 - when it touched 67c before rising sharply. Yes, we rely a lot on dairy, and since the EU took off it's production quotas three months ago, global prices have been sliding, but our economy is not in the doldrums and IMO in better shape than it was back in 2010.
The GBP/NZD this week rose to 2.329 which is the highest it's been since Sept 2009...and it's about to test (bounce-off?) a price close to that again this morning. Support the kiwi...and reap the rewards.
Discl: now long.
Have you looked at the NZD/USD's downward trend-line for this week? The bottoms on 29/6, 30/6 and today line up...which often (not always but often) produce a third bounce...in fact the third (like today's) is usually more pronounced.
Of course there is another downward trendline to be a bit cautious about (which is why I often use stops). Last month's bottoms on 6/6, 18/6 and 24/6 indicate we might get a fourth at around .6705 today...but that's so close to my buy price I won't bother placing a stop.
...now .6712 and looks to be holding, even with the AUD trading weak. If the AUD/NZD cross fails again to reach 1.14 (as it did yesterday), we might find that yesterday's 1.1385 head and shoulder pattern is confirmed.
Should be an interesting day's trading - pivotal IMO.
Hi Bobcat look forward to reading further analysis. I have some AUD from my time living there I am waiting to convert and some USD as well, so am pleased with the NZD dropping. From what I can tell the NZD is falling through AUD and USD support levels quite easily?
I should never have given up my day job. Back to the drawing board....
...edit: Oh, wait a minute - could this be a rebound? If it breaks thru resistance at .6706 then I'll get bullish agin.
A shocking Trade Balance across the ditch (t.b.a. 1:30pm) could stifle any rebound here of course. We'll see in around 40mins. I've just gone short on the AUD/NZD at 1.1410 to hedge against the impact of a disappointing result.
Get in boys - the Kiwi will not be this cheap again for a long time. Time to go long (IMO) against either the USD, CHF, GBP or JPY. Double tops/bottoms are a sure enough signal for me. Not against the AUD, that's come off a lot already over the past 24 hours.
Discl: Now long against the CHF and USD.
Double bottom over what period? It's the lowest against the USD in 5 years.
Yeah I wouldn't be fighting this LT downtrend (No double bottom in sight on the daily charts). Potential hikes by the FED and cuts by RBNZ to come. Might get a ST bounce if Greece sorts itself out.
I'm calling circa 60 by year end.
Attachment 7454
NZD/USD bottomed at 66.60 at midnight on the 2nd then rebounded off 66.75 at 2am on the 4th to close later that day up at 66.90. It may drop a little tomorrow to test 66.75 but don't be surprised if it rises from there throughout the week. The AUD/USD is also ripe for a rebound.
Given Thursday morning's 6% drop in GDT prices, I'd be very surprised if another 25bps is not already factored into the NZD/USD market price.
Also bullish on NZD/GBP.
Discl: long
Have a look at the .6280 double bottom on the NZD/CHF on the night of June 30th and morning of July 4th. The CHF has been strengthening more than the USD partly due to fears about China's equity market volatility these past few days. If and when that settles, there's good percentage gains to be made on the NZD/CHF cross. I'm now long with a stop at .6274.
A no vote in Greece tonight could see more risk off & potential further sell off in NZD & AUD as there is flight to the USD.
On the slippery slope again b!oody Greeks .6650 !
There's the double bottom you chaps were looking for @66.60. It went lower to 66.54 for about 2 mins before shooting up to now sit at around 66.80. That's a bullish bounce in my view. Even the Greeks can't push this one down now. Onward and upward.
I'm also now bullish on the AUD/USD - anything under 75c has to attract some psychological support given that a) this past week it's dropped from a high of 77.40...and b) this is the lowest it's been since Feb 2009 in the depths of the GFC. And so I also bought into it this morning before it bounced up to now sit at around 74.88.
Go you good thing...
Struggling to find much significance in movements up and down over such a small time frame versus the 25% down trend running since September last year. There must have been hundreds if not thousands of such double bottoms/tops etc over the last 12 months.
The Reserve Bank wanted to get the NZD down to protect the economy in light of its exposure to dropping GDT prices. A lower than expected CPI/Inflation figure also paved the way for a cut. Since their 25bps OCR cut last month, the NZD has dropped a lot against most major currencies. This is also thanks to the plummeting AUD ahead of tomorrow's RBA interest rate announcement (which more analysts are now forecasting to drop).
The market has brought the NZD down to about where the NZRB hoped it would go after their OCR cut (down about 8%). Why cut the rate again already when they would be wiser to instead do that later after the NZD has lifted a bit? I liken it to the gopher arcade game where you wait until it rears its ugly head before hammering it down. There's no point in hammering it down again until it's lifted.
IMO a second 25bps OCR cut is already factored in, and we may well see no change until later this year. The contrarian in me is trading against current market expectation.
BC
Ballsiest move I ever saw Mav ....
BC they are not just cutting the OCR to lower the Kiwi , and therefore lift the return on exports . They are also cutting it to ease the repayment burden on the over leveraged dairy farmers, not to mention a few hefty Auckland mortgages ...Best way for a central bank to operate is to get ahead of the curve , not behind when it's too late . What's a little bit of inflation between friends .
Big lift over the past 12 hours for the NZD against most currencies, esp the GBP and AUD. Dropping back a little today but that was a momentum shift and so expect another rise over the next few hours. The worm has turned.
...it looks like it's starting now off around 67c - get in.
Now 67.40 (almost half a cent lift in just half an hour) - did you get in?
AUD also lifting off some good employment numbers and Chinese CPI lift. Go you good thing(s).
Make that 67.55. I've just now sold...to ride the next wave.
Nice trade BC, although I would say its a dangerous game to play the wrong side of a very strong trend and any bounce like we have just seen is a good opportunity to sell.
You're behind the times, Daytr - take a look at the graph. Downward resistance was broken yesterday (8pm NZST) at around 66.70.
Attachment 7469
It's onward and upward from here. You won't buy the NZD cheaper against the GBP, CHF and USD than it was yesterday, for a very long time...IMO.
Big call & maybe you are right, but not into bottom picking & would rather see a clearer trend.
The Kiwi has come a very long way. In saying that if you look at pre EURO which caused massive weakness in the USD this level would have been considered high for the NZD.
Perhaps the Kiwi maybe seen as a bit of a safe haven as so far away from where the chaos is, however history is against it.
I think the RBNZ will lower rates by another 75-100bps yet & I would suggest at most half of that is factored in.
You may see more upside tonight after the FED as I think they will be kicking the can down the road on interest rate hikes, but its a bit of a guess.
I'm with Daytr on this one. seems like a solid downtrend in the kiwi. 88 to just over 66 with no higher lows or higher highs in all of that range that I can see (depending on your time frame).
What's your target BC? will be interested to see how far this corrects (or trends as the case may be).
What data are you looking at? There have been higher highs with all of the NZD/USD, NZD/GBP, NZD/CHF and NZD/JPY four times these past two days. Bother to do your research before you post.
Here's the NZD/USD chart for this week:
Attachment 7472
I'm looking at the daily chart BC (as shown). and just NZD/USD as the thread is titled.
Thanks for the chart. I see what you are saying, but lets keep this friendly eh. we all have different time frames and TA.
I'm curious on your long target though. I cant tell if you are expecting 68 or 88.
I'm still targeting 63c in the medium term - i.e next 3-6 months. (just my "research")
I wouldn't mind seeing a little higher before I short. I think its possible we see high 0.68s and that might be a nice level about there.
Nice break below 66. Looks like the trend lower will continue. Poor gdt reading this morning.