Who said they're going to sell. They simply said they're retaining the option to sell medium term.... like most of us.
Printable View
Hey kid’s, there’s a new TV ad, just like being back at school,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_NzDrBGN50
If anybody wants to see what Freedom have on the drawing board an updated preso. Thy seem quite happy with A2. And they seem to have little capital gains tax liability if they ever sell A2
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-ite...E=ASX&N=815319
When they sold down 40 million shares a year or so ago they got A$15.4 million, recording a pre tax profit of A$11.8m
So essentially free carry for them eh.
Been a good investment, whether that clouds their judgement about the future use of this $70m asset is anybody's guess
Chairman Cliff Cook says: "The Company today is stronger and better
positioned than at any time previously. Our conservative balance sheet
provides a secure basis for our current growth plans in international
markets."
My current low risk low growth value for ATM now stands at around 74c. Needless to say a higher growth outlook, picking up decent sales in the US and China is somewhat better. Not sure why anyone would be selling at these levels, I am in buy mode... then again I am investing for 1 year or two (or more) out, not short term gains... if the Synalit announcement comes through this month it should have a decent impact short term.
Pure speculation, no links or whatever
ATM Reinvigorating interest in ASX listing .....pump up the interest from Aussie investors who are much less risk adverse (ok they like believing stories) ......what an opportunity for Freedom to sell down or out .....could even dress it as something really special to the instos if ready market of retail nave stores wanting a piece of the action.
That the plan?
Be good, very good, for you guys
Here's Keith Woodford's latest message to the mainstream dairy industry suggesting why it needs to start taking notice of where the science on A1/A2 has been leading.
http://keithwoodford.wordpress.com/2...nce/#more-1119
According to him also there is a large volume of research nearing completion and about to be published from other sources
An interesting write in the UK
http://www.independent.co.uk/life-st...t-9704759.html
ive been using A2 for about a month and most of the symptoms mentioned above have improved for me.. i thought it was glutten problem but seems like it was milk in my cuppa with lunch...have tried not to read to much into the results but i feel much better......had to go to 3 supermarkets yesterday to find any on the shelves
I think this study is more about the benefits of milk whey rather than the difference in A1 and A2.
Curtin University researchers have revealed protein fragments from milk could help combat and reduce the risk of developing Australia’s fastest growing chronic disease, type 2 diabetes.
http://news.curtin.edu.au/media-rele...rtin-research/
I have no problem getting it at Countdown Mt. Wellington and Onehunga, but I do phone first to save a wasted trip. Bought 6 litres last week and gave 4 litres to family to promote it. Have also printed out a few flyers on the health benefits of a2 which I will be giving out to some of my customers in the future. Have a nice day, it is sunny in Auckland today:t_up:
It's really just that at one stage he was the only academic to take it seriously. Remember that the two original brains behind A2 Corporation, scientist Corran McLachlan and agricultural investor Howard Patterson, both died unexpectedly around the same time, leaving the whole A2 hypothesis pretty much without a promoter. Woodford was initially a non-believer, buying the Fonterra line that the argujments for A2 were fallacious, but after reading up on it came to the conclusion it "had legs" scientifically. He mastered the complexities of the subject which involve several branches of science, wrote the book on it ("Devil in the Milk") and has kept himself fully up to date on the research since. He is now one of the very few with a sufficiently broad scientific knowledge in areas as diverse as dairy genetics and human medical health to grapple with the subject, and who has the academic independence and professional reputation to take on the might of the mainstream dairy industry without worrying where his next tranche of research funding is going to come from. From reading his book I think he was quite motivated by his disappointment at seeing the power of the Dairy Board/Fonterra and NZ Food Safety Authority being used to shut down any discussion of the A1/A2 issue, an attitude he saw as both scientifically/medically outrageous and commercially suicidal for the industry.
As Harrie has mentioned, there's now a huge amount of research on A1/A2 going on internationally and nothing will stop it. It's establishing the links between A1 and gastrointestinal problems, autism, SIDS, type 2 diabetes, heart disease - you name it. But what it all needs very much is someone like Woodford who can pull it all together, analyse how the pieces correlate, and explain it to medical and health bodies, food safety organisations, nutritional and public health groups, the media, the general public and the farming industry.
Fonterra is unlikely to have such a hold over NZ supermarkets that it could prevent an a2 promotion at supermarket level similar to a cheese and wine type promotion. Could you "feel the difference" as they say by one shot of a2 milk...I doubt it, but if it is promoted along side a leaflet handout going through a basic differentiation of facts backed up by current research then the idea has a lot of merit.
I could see a good angle in the UK: "Do you consider that you are lactose intolerant? It could just be the type of milk you were drinking. Try a2 milk" ....or something along those lines.
A2 want to promote initially to the captive 20% of the market that consider that they are lactose intolerant, but may have that view based on how the a1 protein may have reacted with them rather than the lactose element itself.
Mr Mair 'blind' to recent purchases
Does seem strange this fund seems to invest a lot in a couple of companies he is a director in. Maybe the mandate is simply 'just invest in what David is involved in'
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/forte-f...mair-bd-161795
Has anybody done any figures as to how big ATM needs to get before they're self sustaining in the industry in that even IF A2 turned out to be a myth, they were big enough to just compete as a normal supplier anyway?
Well it seems to me that given that it is still scientifically unproven, ATM have still picked up a sizable part of the Australian fresh milk market based purely on anecdotal "word & Mouth" testomony by hundreds of users. I would find it pretty hard to believe that those people are either phycologically swayed by marketing rhetoric, or just plainly stupid.
IMHO milk is milk even if the science remains inconclusive there will always be a market for it, so I don't see any real downside. The real issue seems to be centred more around ensuring supply can meet the demand.
It won't turn out to be a myth. No chance. Even the critics and doubters no longer really challenge the science, thanks to Woodford. If it was a myth, Fonterra and co would be saying so, and they actually gave that up years ago.
But it will take a while for the global scientific commuity to actually embrace the A2 hypothesis - that will be a gradual process. At the moment they're mostly sitting on the fence, with some aware that something is going on but not yet fully understanding it, and others not even aware.
I would have thought that A2 is already self-sustaining commercially, given that it has reached a stage of high profitability already in Australia even prior to being allowed to make any advertising claims as to its health benefits. Its success there has all been based on consumer experience and word of mouth, plus a very fortunate factor that is seldom acknowledged - a largely friendly media in Australia. In NZ, Fonterra has such a commercial hold over the media that they aren't going to run stories publicly questioning the safety of the milk we're served in the shops. Also, the NZ Food Safety Authority has very firmly (and dishonestly) suppressed any debate on the A2 issue, still insisting in the face of all the evidence that there's nothing in it.
But in Australia there's been a lot of media publicity for A2 based on consumer anecdotal experience. That could only happen once there was enough of the stuff available in the shops for a lot of people to suck it and see, ie people who think they're milk intolerant or who experience digestive discomfort when drinking milk. Australia's the only market where it's readily available as yet. Once it achieves a decent level of market availability in UK and US it should really take off. Articles like the one in The Independent the other day are publicity you just can't buy - they have huge credibility. Consumer experience is leading the way, and the science is gradually following behind, discovering why the consumer experience is positive. There's no science arguing the converse.
agree with you NT...but who is it thats selling shares and supressing share price....
Its may be freedom, but more likely fund managers who are controlled by mandates which set exposures to any one specific stock. As I have said before trustees are governed by the trust deed not by their brain. They really don't have anyinvestment nowse, they just have a legal responsibility to remain within the terms of what has been set down in the mandate. I'm hoping its not Milford because as they depress the SP they may need to sell more to keep the balance right. For those who use their brain its a great opportunity to buy at these prices. The further it goes down the better the value.
There is nothing fundamentally changed in what ATM are doing than they were doing when the SP was up in the 90's!
Can't answer that. I'm moot an analyst, just a happy and contented investor who has followed the A2 story for a long time and enjoys being part of A2's journey. I'm in for the long haul, not worrying too much about temporary manipulations, unless they seem to signal a hostile takeover is planned at a depressed price (or any price), which worries me slightly.
On the subject of SP manipulation, some of us will have just seen an interesting post (no. 11377) over on the PEB thread that could be relevant and a bit unnerving, especially to us non-traders. There are interesting analogies between ATM and PEB of course.
It's not me, i'm still in buying mode, but holding back for a breather. Bit busy with election campaigns at the moment, but have noticed a couple of shareholders pushing sp down. Maybe they have a buy order in at 61c. And you know the story from there. As soon as their buy order has gone through, then their sell order disappears. Or it might be the opposite, I hope not.
Analysts have had a week to digest the results and that strategic growth outlook, and one just has to check on Yahoo or FT to see that revenue and earnings estimates have been revised already.
Valuations are to the upside, just needs a catalyst, dumb as it may seem, some are probably awaiting the Synlait announcement, sometime in the next couple of weeks
I’m not convinced that all have figured out that falling dairy prices is actually a positive for ATM too, the exchange rate dropping can’t be lost on most though.
Converted a pregnant woman in the egg department today, at the super market. I told her which eggs were free range, which she bought. Also told her to drink a2, which she had never heard of. I said it was a healthier choice for you and baby, and google it when you get home. Should all be good in the long run:).
You gotta be just a bit careful about that. I googled A2 milk the other day and the first site that came up was this one, an aussie one absolutely full of BS attacking A2 milk and saying it's a total hoax.
http://www.a2milkthefacts.com/
It didn't give any indication who was behind it, either. The Dirty Tricks brigade is active over there, as well as a lot of good guys.
I see Freedom Foods have been buying up;
Trade Date 01-09-2014 Bought 162,500 Ordinary Shares for NZD 104,000
Trade Date 01-09-2014 Bought 500,000 Ordinary Shares for NZD 310,850
Trade Date 03-09-2014 Bought 180,000 Ordinary Shares for NZD 112,608
Trade Date 03-09-2014 Bought 100,000 Ordinary Shares for NZD 61,500
Congrats on being a parent seaweed:t_up:
That quote from Freedom was misinterpreted by a few. They only said the retain the right to sell in the mid term future - like any investor!
Interesting that they should talk about selling (scaring people) while actually buying.
These shares are just becoming more and more tightly held by big players. MAC is right, it's a rocket waiting to go, it just needs an announcement to push the fire button. Good luck trying to get some when it goes...
Disc Hold
My guess is that whatever their medium term intentions, FF know better than most that the ATM price is artificially depressed at present and this is a time to buy. They also specialise in supplying healthy foods to people who are only too happy to pay a premium, so they understand what lies ahead for ATM, whether they want to stay in or cash up and leave at some stage. JoshuaTree, have you got an updated list of the top 100 in ATM?
Very smart and interesting strategy by FF. Certainly sucked the market in by the "option to sell" comment on their latest report.
Would be interesting to see who the seller was for the volume that went thru recently. I'm picking that it is likely to be fund managers incl kiwisaver providers. Are you still out there Joshua tree?
I could not see any dates for any of the anti a2 commentary via the link that NT posted. I'm wondering how out of date those comments were?
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/a2-corn...tion-bd-161962
NBR's article on the above - its free
That's exactly the point, Harrie. The site has actually been updated slightly in recent weeks, but it's a mess, and there's a lot of anti-A2 stuff which is mostly based on statements issued by food safety authorities about seven years ago.
At that time it was true to say there was insufficient clinical evidence for A2Corp to make any claims of health advantages in A2 milk (other than anecdotal). And more importantly for the FSAs, it was too early to issue any kind of public warnings that might make people scared to drink dairy milk and give it to their kids who need the nutrients.
The clinical evidence has accumulated since then, but the FSAs have not updated their advisories. The quandary they are in is this: There's now no real dispute that the digestion of A1 milk yields an opioid peptide (BCM7) which IN SOME CONSUMERS, ESPECIALLY SOME YOUNG INFANTS can get into the bloodstream and trigger nasty medical results including aspects of the autism syndrome, sudden infant death syndrome etc. But these effects still haven't been quantified, especially in humans, and no one is suggesting that the numbers of consumers affected is huge, so it would still be premature to start issuing health warnings about A1. It can be argued that the benefits of drinking milk with A1 still outweigh the known risks, and even the A2 Milk Company doesn't dispute that.
So, under pressure from the mainstream dairy industry the FSAs are doing nothing, just leaving up their old outdated stuff from 7 years ago that said there's no demonstrated health issue at all.
That is now garbage, especially since the Curtin trial but in fact since well before that. But what should they do?
In my view they should inform the public that there is now a growing body of scientific research indicating that SOME consumers react adversely to the A1 in standard milk, and there would be no harm in their trying A2 to see if it is helpful. That would be honest, it would have scientific integrity, and it would be good helpful advice that might in fact enable many consumers currently unable to tolerate dairy milk to embrace it.
The directors were issued partly paid shares so overall there was a dilution. They bought some shares to minimize the dilution. See the number of shares in class.
The dilution is not all one way. these were partly paid shares, so while there was a discount presumably to the market some of the directors and shareholders would have had to front with some folding.
If those shares were issued earlier this year when the price was in the high 80's and early 90s you may find that some of shareholders were partly paying shares based on somewhere around the high 70's or early 80's.
I am aware that over a million shares went to one executive at 0.76 per share. That was a pretty good signal to me that there was plenty of confidence in the future growth of the company.
Thanks for the background on where the FSA's are sitting at the mo NT.
I think that ATM's marketing in the UK to 20% of the milk intolerant is a good one to work on. It may be possible that a significant % of those may not be lactose intolerant, just intolerant to A1.
Harrie - the shares issued were at 55 64 and 72 and in all cases were only paid up to 1 cent in the $ (ie the 5 mil at 64 cents cash paid was only $32,000)
The Annual Report should give you more detail about the arrangements and whether any shortfall when full payment is called upon needs to be paid or whatever
As an aside Freedom got 400,000 free share last year to compensate them for the dilution under an old Agreement
Thanks W69 for that info. Can't see the latest report on all this dilution, but last year there was around 32.5 mil of shares partly paid.(approx. 5% of total shares)
Buried in the 2013 annual report is info about tranches of shares. There is about 9 million that don't vest until 2016 and when they do they are fully paid up at $0.15 per share. I see that the anti dilution agreement with FF has ended now though.
I see also that these tranches were granted back when the SP was relatively low, so I hope that future share arrangements with senior staff are issued at better prices
I see somebody bought another 1,000,000 just on closing.
yes at .63c. A total of around 2 mil shares traded. Who is selling?
a lot of shareholders like NT001 bought into ATM at under 10c years ago sell at 63c still a very good investment, isn't it.
No Harrie, not quite in my 90s yet, sorry if I sound like it.
Don't forget, ATM was damn close to $1 not long ago. I'd be really interested to know who's been forcing the price down and why. Not sure what would be achieved by Moosie's scheme to plunk a 15M order into the market, but I am tempted to buy another block at these prices.
Harrie, can you (or anyone else) tell me how or if it is possible for people to test if they are lactose intolerant or only intolerant to A1 ? My 4 months old grandson has just been diagnosed as "intolerant to dairy products" but I intend to get more detail and info on it.
You could also search www.aboutthea2milkcompany.com
Far be it from me to offer medical advice, but there is A2 formula available, and also goat's milk formula in the supermarkets which is A2. Possibly no harm in giving them a gentle try.
Yes, human breast milk is naturally pure A2, same as all other milk in the animal kingdom except that from some European breeds of cow which were affected by a genetic mutation several thousand years ago. However, recent clinical research has found traces of A1 in the breast milk of mothers who drank A1 milk, and without wishing to scare you, this is being linked with an increased SIDS risk and slow psychomotor development. Your medical advisers may well be unaware of this as it's very new, but you can see more about it, clearly explained in layman's terms, in this article on Prof Woodford's blog which actually advises that lactating mothers should drink A2 milk:
https://keithwoodford.wordpress.com/...eath-syndrome/
This is a trick I learned from another thread, thanks Santiago for that;
http://www.google.com/trends/explore...9%2070m&cmpt=q
Nice to see a steady, albeit lumpy, increasing awareness and attention to A2 milk.
Interestingly, Dani Minogue seems to have created that spike in February 2013 when she said what she said on ITV, hmmmm, perhaps ATM should have kept her on board after all.
But, take a look at the spike following Lion’s efforts to mislead and the effect of the Curtin study results.
Debate ---> Awareness ---> Sales
regards, Mac
Did anyone read the write up in the Sunday Star times bussiness section today about a1 and a2 milk? Good exposure.
Got an online link See Weed?
It's the final article in a three-part series by Woodford in the SST, and will probably be available on his blogsite tomorrow or the next day at:
http://keithwoodford.wordpress.com/feed/
The first two articles, which are already on his site, described the new clinical research that is confirming the risk factor in A1 milk, and the commercial danger this poses the NZ dairy industry. This third article in today's SST discusses why the NZ industry has failed to switch to A2 - largely due to industry politics and Fonterra's scaredness to admit there is anything wrong with the A1 milk it has been selling all these years.
Today's article has some interesting info about ATM's patents on testing cows for A1/A2. The patents don't actually apply in NZ and will start to run out in overseas countries from 2016. This helps explain the urgency of getting A2 milk on the market quickly in the UK and US.
It's a good series that in many ways sums up where the whole A1/A2 issue is at. Essential for every ATM shareholder, regardless of whether or not they already have Woodford's book.
Im wondering if, with the patents running out in 2016, how much of that is factored into the current price?
No I have not but then most of the "sellers" may not have either MAC. In other words its just the perception (like mine) that could be holding back new investors.
I would doubt whether investors are aware of all this, Harrie. I've been following A2 for years but am not familiar with the IP details (though I probably should be). Anyway, in addition to the tail-hair test to verify whether a cow is pure A2 or not, on which A2MC gets a fee (offshore), there's also quite a lot of trademarking around whether you can market your milk as A2 even if you know it is. There may of course be ways around this like saying it is "A1-free" - not sure how tight the restrictions are pr whenthey run out.
This is why I was asking the question the other day seeing if anyone had done the sums to see if ATM could make it as a 'standard milk producer', meaning if the whole a2 premium thing 'comes to an end' via clever marketing etc, are ATM big enough (or when will they be) to just compete as a me too company (worst case - unlikely I know but not my point).
Cheers,
NBT
Well that is the issue NT. Nobody really knows or understands how relevant the IP and patents are to ATM's value proposition both until 2016 and thereafter.
All any investor reads about is that offshore patents run out in 2016. There is no qualification to that statement, so I for one have no idea how that will affect ATM's future prospects and therefore future SP. MAC seems to think that it is not an issue because of the multi level patents which exist, but I wonder if the market is aware of all that.
Based on the headline that patents expire in 2016, I'm just putting it out there that with that doubt, maybe new money is staying out?
No, Woodford did not say offshore patents run out in 2016. What he said was (and I'm sure he won't mind this being reproduced here, so that we are getting our facts right, bearing in mind that he is talking ):
"Most countries are currently constrained by patents held by the A2 Milk Company which are perceived as controlling the right to select herds free of A1 beta-casein. These patents, which are not effective in New Zealand, run out in most other countries starting in 2016. So we [i.e. the NZ dairy industry] have less than two years to build our lead. Thereafter, other countries, and particularly the USA with its mega-sized herds and the use of sex-selected semen, can quickly catch up.
"From a purely business perspective, the other key issue is the role of the NZX-listed A2 Milk Company. To date they have used their patents to good effect outside New Zealand to keep others at bay. They have made spectacular progress in Australia, but have yet to transfer this success on to the world stage."
Some details about ATM's IP suite including patent expiry dates were given in its 2012 strategic plan, pages 15-17.
http://thea2milkcompany.com/wp-conte...-Plan-2012.pdf
NB the annotation shown in very small type, that the expiry dates shown are the first that apply anywhere, and do not apply to all markets.
Actually there's a lot more in that strategic plan that's worth re-reading, including the section that makes clear the Australian model will be adopted in other markets - in other words, no more mucking around.
It’s all a bit hard I think for we non biotechnician patent lawyers to get a happy one line summary out of a zillion overlapping quite complex patents. ATM had Simpson Grierson review the patent suite and they provided a positive review.
Perhaps though Harrie, if it is a concern for you, you may wish to ask at the AGM in November if there are any commercial implications, that might provide you and perhaps the general media also with a better public statement than just ‘the first one expires in 2016’.
NBT, do consider that the a2 milk company operate within the premium milk market, the products are value added irrespective of patents, similar to soy milk or lactose free milk.
Interesting observations, and great work on supplying it to him Snapiti.
From a research perspective two findings can be drawn - A) Not drinking milk for 8 years has allowed his immune system to mature and retract against such consequences he previously encountered or B) A2 works!!!!
I'm in Wellington for work and I have struggled to find A2 in the CBD, anyone know where I can find some?
Unfortunately Countdown doesn't have outlets in the CBD. Possibly the closest is in Newtown, at 3 John Street. It's on the main road leading to the public hospital, just before the hospital.
I'm in Queenstown and have never seen it. Is it only north of the Bombay Hills ? JAFA land.
Dunedin Countdown stocks it, an extra row of 2L bottles has appeared in the last two weeks.
Hundreds if not thousands of consumers in Australia have had the same experience as Snapiti's friend. That's why the word has got around despite Dairy Australia and some nutritionists still saying A1 and A2 are the same so there can't be any difference and it's all an illusion.
As regards Queenstown, we couldn't find it there. I don't think there's a Countdown there, but there is a Fresh Choice supermarket which seems to be owned by the same company. They didn't have it when we were there but sounded interested in ordering it. It comes from Northland - long way to the deep south.
I know the owner of Fresh Choice. May have a word in his ear. ;)
Snapiti - how good friend is he? Would be great if he took the experiment further and now drank the same amount of A1 milk (or lesser if reactions begin again).Maybe coerce him with some good stock suggestions.
As an aside, went to buy A2 at one Countdown store in Napier last week and there were only three bottles left all expiring the next day.Asked if they had any out the back- no not until deliveries the next day. Walked over the road to the Countdown Store (used to be woolworths I think) and they had plenty all with expiries 2 weeks plus - assume they had just had their deliveries.
Hope A2 yogurt is in the horizon.
In terms of the patent discussion, there is just as an important IP in terms of their trademark of the A2 name.
Even they some of the patents expire, surely competition can't use the term A2? Then any competitor would have to then rename a fledgling product, and re-educate consumers. Of course ATM are only in a few countries and can't chew and swallow the world in one bite.
Absolutely MAC. At the moment they're protected there by IP etc. I just like to consider a few possible scenarios and see what the company would be valued at then. In this case I'm wondering what would happen if thanks to some clever marketing from cashed up rivals and the expiry of a few key bits of IP, their competitive advantage was eroded and they were then in a situation where others could sell and market 'a2 only milk' too and the premium'was lost, so A2MC just became another 'me too' company. I'm not saying this is going to happen and if it does they have at least a three year head start. But if it did, how big do they have to get before they can compete. It's kind of like a worst case scenario situation, if this were to occur and they had to bring prices down closer to 'normal milk', how big would they need to get and how much could they still make. Figure this out and you know the worst case price to pay (which might equate to say 80c a share) meaning if you buy in at say 65c you're guaranteed to print cash even in the worst case. Then you can put the farm on it and still sleep easy.
Hope that makes sense.
Fair enough, a good investor must consider the consequence of risks. One must also consider the likelihood of risks, and as importantly also mitigations, both in place or ongoing.
As I understand, it would take the expiry of multiple overlapping patents within the supply chain for your scenario to play out, and a2MC are continually enhancing the patent suite.
No one it seems on the thread is a patent lawyer, including you or I, and no one has raised any specific issue with the IP or patent adequacy aside from some general media sound bites. The company lawyers have reviewed and I don't think we are in a position to do better.
Judging from the interest on the thread though, it does seem to be a good question to raise at the AGM for some confidence and guidance from management.
From the 2012 strategic review;
A2C’s Intellectual Property (“IP”) includes patents, trade marks and trade names (“brands”), proprietary processes and know-how that is codified in the A2 System©
• The IP has been subjected to an independent legal review which concluded that the portfolio is strong and well balanced to deliver commercial value in both the short and long term:
“A2C’s intellectual property is balanced across a variety of rights, with strength throughout the supply chain. Chain of title and rights are well documented, allowing a solid basis for exploitation and enforcement” Simpson Grierson
• The strength of A2C’s intellectual capital will increasingly be driven by brand and know-how, in addition to patents
• A2C has rights to seven families of patents and patent applications in various combinations
• Ongoing R&D is continuing to enhance the scope and duration of existing patent rights
Cheers MAC,
I guess the simple/ very crude way to answer my own question is to just take the predicted profit in the future for the likely outcome (great success:t_up: ) and discount it by the same percentage as a bottle of 'normal' milk is discounted to A2 currently. This would then simulate a worst case, still operating scenario.
Like I say, if they're going to print money worst case then buying up large now is a no brainer.
I think NBT is simply raising a concern about IP and patents which we are all grappling with, and that is to protect our downside risk.
I don't think that raising it at the AGM is going to give us any more info than the company line which MAC has clearly outlined above and that mainly is that Simpson Grierson has reviewed all the IP and had it independently checked. It is strong, balanced and has both short and long term commercial value.... but then they would say that wouldn't they?
When you look at the brand and knowhow, the seven families of patents and their on going enhancements, and the length of time A2 still has with a number of these, its pretty hard to see that ATM could ever have other than growing revenues both from the supply side and IP side, in fact if the science becomes compelling enough a takeover would be more likely rather than other producers needing to get around all the legalities and challenges that would be required to get their A2 product onto the market.
I'm wondering though, why ATM does not just go to the market, raise some cash and get right into it, rather than just growing organically. This maybe is where the ASX listing murmurings are coming from? but maybe there is a supply limitation?
Ive been catching a few a2 tv ads here and there, in aussie recently. a2 are slowly hammering in the difference between a1 "normal cows milk", and full a2 cows milk - with digrams in cow format! Im never watching near prime times however, so cant comment as to how extensive the ads are. The main point is that im seing them and notice increased exposure, market eductation as well as great replies to cheapshot marketing!
Also, im continuosly having to ask coles staff for a 2 ltr bottle from out back - because they sell out, more regularly than the milk shelves are restocked. Happy to be a holder and watch them chip away in the background.
The article by Prof Keith Woodford in the Sunday Star Tijmes two days ago (the third in a weekly series of three on A1 and A2) can now be viewed on his blogsite at:
http://keithwoodford.wordpress.com/2...1-and-a2-milk/
Like I said, these three articles are all essential reading for ATM shareholders to understand the current situation and to get some insights into the future - upside and downside.
And here's more great publicity - in a major British trade newspaper, The Grocer.
http://www.thegrocer.co.uk/buying-an...371344.article
Great to see A2MC is using an academic from the Curtin University clinical trial in Western Australia to push the message in Britain. If grocery and supermarket managers get the message that they can possibly help solve consumers' intolerance problems, that's a huge credibility boost. I wish Countdown and Fresha would push that message here in NZ. Maybe Fresha's not yet capable of meeting increased demand - that could be an issue to raise at the ASM. Can we hire Snapiti's friend to do publicity for the company?
Earlier I speculated that maybe Fresha Valley is unable to supply Countdown and other outlets with enough A2 milk to meet demand. That’s NOT TRUE.
Being a strong believer that getting the facts can often be quite useful, I just picked up the old telephone and had a very interesting and constructive chat with the owner-manager of Fresha Valley, which is the sole NZ supplier of A2 Milk.
Several things emerged.
They supply basically every Countdown store in NZ, plus a few New World stores (Porirua is one) and other outlets including health food stores.
They have plenty of A2 milk available, tonnes more than they have orders for, and won’t refuse any supermarket that asks for it. If any supermarket is running short it’s because they aren’t ordering enough, and we should tell them that Fresha says so.
They’re located in Waipu, in Northland, but they deliver to outlets in the whole of the South Island the day after processing.
They’re quite a big outfit, one of the only non-Fonterra firms in the country with their own big processing plant for domestic supply. A2 milk is just a small part of their total operation and they have quite a chunk of the Auckland market for standard milk.
They have a contract A2 herd which supplies them, and surprisingly the entire herd is Friesian, but of course every cow has been tested as A2-A2.
They are well aware of what the science says about A1/A2 and what’s going on in Australia and England, and would like to promote A2 milk here for its health attributes. But whenever they do they get heavied by big lawyers (he won’t say who for, but one could guess) and they can’t afford the time or expense to get involved in bigtime litigation. So they leave it to Keith Woodford to make the case for A2 in NZ.
Also they have to maintain good relations with Fonterra because they live and do business in the same world as Fonterra and there’s quite a bit of milk trading between them although Fresha is independent.
Hope that’s helpful.
Thanks for sharing this NT001. Very interesting !
Thanks NT, that is highly revealing. Vested interest on multiple levels. So we know its not a supply problem in NZ.
Thanks NT for that info. What I have done is printed out some a2 info and give a copy to people I see buying milk at the supermarket. I make sure I have a few copies on hand wherever I go, to promote it. Sometimes petrol stations ask if you want a coffee with your purchase, and I say has it got a2 milk in it, if not I will give them an a2 info copy. So if all us shareholders did the same, it would not take too long before word got around about the benifits of a2, plus mention Keith Woodford and his Devil in the Milk book. Any other ideas of promoting a2 is welcome, please let us know.
Thanks SW, I think every little bit of pushing the message can be useful. But I'm rather thinking of whether we can come up with something that reaches a broader public in a slightly more professional way. I have some PR and journalistic background and in principle it's not too difficult although there is a financial cost, plus the need to avoid antagonising mainstream dairy. I rather think it might be an idea to contact A2MC, which I'm happy to do - we don't want to do anything in an organised way that actually cuts across the company's own strategy. From what I see happening in Oz, it seems that A2MC is ready to be bolder than in the past because it has a basis for making clinical claims, which it has never had until now. And with Woodford's articles plus some of the stuff from Oz there's really no shortage of material to work with. It would be really good, though, if we could get real-life NZ stories about "how A2 changed my life", like those that have been appearing in Australian media and like the story of Snapiti's friend.
I think it would probably be very difficult to get any of the supermarkets to make material available to customers - they would immediately come under mainstream dairy pressure. So the big question is how to reach consumers, knowing also that the mainstream NZ media are fairly reluctant to run stories that (they think) might displease Fonterra. Real-life examples are a great starting point. Any thoughts and suggestions would be welcomed.
I was at a clients house yesterday, they live in the Northern parts of Sydney, opened the fridge for a cuppa and here's the A2 bottle looking out at me.
One suburb up I have another Client who only drinks a2, had along conversation about it, she won't go back to ordinary milk.
Thought holders might appreciate this,
http://www.theage.com.au/business/re...09-10cxhb.html
Something to be aware of.
Fair comment. Two Countdown stores I went to yesterday had sold out, so I bought Soy milk to go on with. Did notice fresha valley had about 8 rows of the a1 version , and the blue label looks just the same but without a2 on it. Nearly bought the a1 brand by mistake, also noticed they were selling the 2litre bottles for $2.