But did you get express permission to do so
He bit touchy on this in the past
Printable View
Can't see why he'd be touchy about it Winner, its a public page on their website.
I think Mike summed the situation up perfectly....just another misjudgement by the boys at S&P
I find Mikes commentaries refreshingly good to the same degree as I find Chris's diatribes boringly repetitive
as I said on the day, keep calm and carry on you HNZ loyalists, the S&P saga is a storm in a teacup
Oh well, thick hides on here Winner.
I was neutral wasn't I? Brick for one, offset by bouquet for the other?:D
Maybe Heartland should get its rating from Fitch. Problem Solved.
Of course Chris Lee would.
He does not like the truth, and cannot handle the truth.
And the truth is that he is actually ignorant about financial matters when you consider how wrong he was with finance companies. He had his own rating system and that blew up big time and he quickly removed all references of the system from his web-site.
Having said that, the world will be a less entertaining place if the Chris Lee's of the world are not around!
KIWIGOLD I would go with S&Ps opinion over Cris Lee's opinion any time
S&P at it again (Kiwibank this time): http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indu...gative-outlook
Negative watch means a risk of reduce rating sometime within the next two years - ie. I am pretty sure this is standard for a negative watch the world over.
Interesting they they think the Ozzie banks will prop up their NZ subsidiaries if the sh!t hits the fan but the government wont prop up Kiwibank. Ozzie banks would cut and run, unlike the government.
As CJ states..a negative watch is,,,
I don't know what all the fuss is about putting blame on the S&P...From my viewpoint these S&P Moodys Fitch negatives are warnings that allows the relevant Sectors plenty of time to formulate contingency plans and other improvements...
There is only one thing worse for the Marketplace than a credit rating bombshell without a warning ... that is the public scoffing of a warning by that sector(s) involved and doing nothing about it.
Hoop the problem is that there is nothing the banks can do to help their situation. They could hold more capital than required or reduce their exposure to property but Heartland has already done/does this.
All that is left then is to determine how correct S&P are that there will be a major property crash in the next two years (unlikely in my view - no growth or slight fall dont count) and if so, who much the banks will be effected. Heartland isnt writing high LVR house loans so will only be impacted by trickle down (if you cant pay your house, you cant pay your car either).
Good to see HNZ is recovering in the meantime. Nothing wrong with stating a position, but I can't believe that S&P still exists after their performance in the years leading up to the GFC. Or that anyone gives them any credibility. I have some shares in IMF(ASX) who are financing a class action against them in Australia.
They have been saved so far by their extensive use of disclaimers but the day of reckoning is coming :
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/0...n_2621561.html
US$5 billion in fines should just about make them wake up to the corruption and fraud so prevalent in their ratings.
I throw my Australian made sandals at them.
Balance, stop being a wuss, bugger your japanese slippers and australian sandals, toss your dutch wooden clogs first, then clip them round the ears with your north korean jackboots
Ok, I throw my well worn mountain climbing boots at them then.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VFX-dKpcDz8
They should be trying harder...going from BBB- stable to negative does not sound like an improvement to me.....next step down is guilt-edged junk status.
Disc hold HNZ
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...sMarch2013.png
Percy. Did Heartland go up to close at 80 cents today due to a Percy Intervention in the market?
If so, many thanks.
But what can Heartland do?, (except to deny any rumours of spare capital distribution?)
We can all sleep a bit sounder tonight, even Percy with no alarm cat.
With them on negative watch, they are atleast 3 announcements away from an increase one would think as they would have to go through stable, positive watch, then finally upgrade.
Didn't quite get low enough for me to top up (though I am trying to de-leverage at the moment)
Yes the much loved cat is greatly missed.
What Heartland can do is keep up with what they are already doing.
They are clear in what they want to do,and they do it.
Coming back from a very successful selling trip to lovely Dunedin I past HEARTLAND HOUSE in downtown Ashburton today.
I thought the one in Tauranga looked impressive,but the one in Ashburton was outstanding.!!
A very bold statement.I look forward to their expansion into Timaru.!!!!
The SP.Well anyone who read Heartland's reply,and the the Cameron Bargie article I referred to in an earlier post,would have realised just how far Heartland Bank have come,and how positive the outlook is for NZ over the next three years.I am pleased I backed myself and brought more.
Anyone reading the S&P report on HNZ would rapidly come to the conclusion that S&P now shoots before asking question.
Don't under-estimate the impact that the US case against S&P has on the psyche of the fraudsters in there - issuing AA to issues which collapsed without so much as a headwind!
Excerpts from articles on the litigation against the rating agency :
"A lead S&P analyst on the deal, according to the plaintiffs, said in an email to his boss that the default rates the agency was using for asset-backed securities were guesswork. "From looking at the numbers it is obvious that we have just stuck our preverbal (sic) finger in the air," the analyst wrote."
"Of course, S&P is knee-deep in the Justice Department’s civil fraud suit in California federal court, which builds upon evidence and legal theories laid out in the Cheyne and Rhinebridge CDO cases. The agency moved to dismiss the Justice Department’s suit last week. S&P is also facing deceptive trade practices claims by more than a dozen state attorneys general; in the most recent development in the AG litigation, a federal judge in Connecticut rebuffed the rating agency’s attempt to remove Connecticut’s 3-year-old case from state court, where it has already survived a dismissal motion. (The Connecticut AG has brought an illegal trade practices suit against Moody’s as well.)"
I throw my friend's moldy shoes at them.
A Bill recently introduced to the US Congress, if passed into law, would make S&P and the other rating agencies irrelevant - at least as far as the "Too Big to Fail Banks" are concerned.
From Mauldin Economics:
The broad strokes of the TBFA Act:
●Mandates a flat 15 percent capital requirement for any institution with more than $500 billion in assets
●Does not rely on ratings agency grades
●Removes off-balance-sheet assets and liabilities as different classes — they are treated as if they are on the balance sheet
●Requires derivatives positions to be included in a bank’s consolidated assets
●Requires that the capital cushion a bank holds be liquid
(Note that these five elements are much stricter than Basel III regulatory requirements. Brown-Vitter renders it irrelevant to U.S. banks).
OK, I know Heartland's not quite in that league!
:cool:
Just received a letter in the post from Heartland Bank, an exclusive offer for shareholders for term deposits.
5 months 4.50% and 15 months 4.75%.
Unfortunately I have just pumped the remainder of my cash into Chorus (long term outlook) so can't help out but if any of you shareholders have any cash you are looking for a home why not put it somewhere we can all benefit. :-)
Warning of "low-ball' offers mailed to shareholders ... seems to be a pro-active warning rather than a response to a specific threat
"Heartland New Zealand Limited (HNZ) is aware that new unsolicited offers are being made to shareholders of listed companies to buy their shares for much less than market value. The Board of HNZ is concerned to ensure that you are not misled by these unsolicited “low ball” offers."
https://www.nzx.com/companies/HNZ/announcements/236659
I assume they have received a request for their shareholder database which by law they have to provide.
Easy target since some people would have inherited these shares from a previous investment so not know much about them. Not an issue unless you are dumb enough to accept.
Announcement re non-core property assets due this week, credit to Percy!
This appears to be a low ball share offer, albeit the statement does not explicitly state they are aware of low ball offers for HNZ ! This is what Heartland says today :
27 May 2013
Dear Shareholder,
WARNING NEW LOW BALL OFFERS IN THE MARKET
Heartland New Zealand Limited (HNZ) is aware that new unsolicited offers are being made to shareholders of
listed companies to buy their shares for much less than market value. The Board of HNZ is concerned to ensure
that you are not misled by these unsolicited low ball offers.
Keep that new Kitchen on the horizon K1W1GOLD... Retain as many shares as possible..
If the worst comes to the worst.. No speaky times.. :-))
Have an early Sh** Shave.. Shampoo and Shower.. Go to bed .. Leaving... And this is the critical part..
One ROSE HEAD on her pillow..
She will turn to putty .. Absolute PUTTY.. Heheheheh.
Great result for 9months.
Non-core property announcement will now be next month.
NPAT of $17.3 for 9 months is on track.
Bond Repayment; Will be repaid from existing cash resources.This will result in a huge saving.
Operating expense ratio much improved.
All proceeding according to plan.Well done Heartland.
Perhaps the uncertainty created by these couple of paragraphs needs to be resolved,
"Impairments
Impaired asset expense for the Bank was $7.9m for the Current Reporting Period, up from $6.1m for the Previous Corresponding Reporting Period. The higher impairment expense came from the non-core property book.
NON-CORE PROPERTY UPDATE
As previously announced, a review of the strategy of managing the non-core property book is being undertaken for the purpose of testing the current exit strategy (being a managed exit over a five year period beginning in January 2011) against alternatives with respect to value maximisation. It is currently anticipated that the outcome of this review will be determined and announced in June 2013. If the outcome of that review is to change strategy, this may impact currently anticipated full year financial results for the Bank and for HNZ."
Loan book decay is faster than writing of new business....no-ones borrowing, or they don't like the credit risk
deposit taking strong, but will be a loss maker on the books...this is the price one pays for liquidity buffers....repaying the bonds is a good outcome from this, and IMO is the right outcome
NCPA comment....I read this as 'is taking a hit now, and a further writedown in this years accounts better than having this drag out another two n a half years, with no certainty that it will prove a better outcome?'
you will find out in June
a fair result so far, but not setting the world on fire, are they
The question is, how much will that 'hit now' affect the share price.
I could also read it as not exiting those assets...and that's how I did until saw Forex's comment. But maybe I'm way off track there.
I think the last sentence of that paragraph suggests they are debating an early liquidation of those assets.
I was a bit harsh with my loan book decay observation....the decline was in those areas they want to decline, namely NCPA and house mortgages, so core business saw a small increase
This one ?
"If the outcome of that review is to change strategy, this may impact currently anticipated full year financial results for the Bank and for HNZ." "
Wouldn't either course of action potentially impact the full year result ?
Thanks for the clarification re the loan book.
Well, I liked the result enough to buy some more today :-)
yes, but to varying degrees. There is clearly a trade-off being assessed at the moment, between a bird in the hand (someone has made them an offer), and two in the bush (should we hold off and see if things improve)Quote:
Wouldn't either course of action potentially impact the full year result ?
now, now percy, don't exaggerate, core only grew by 53.7m, a growth rate of ~2.6%
Not saying thats a bad thing, just keeping it in perspective, and I agree with you, cleared decks will underpin the share price
http://www.interest.co.nz/business/6...rvices-company
Lost biz for heartland the story says
Jeff not responding to the journos ....seems to be a habit of his
Wonder how much involved?
Didn't read it properly .....reads as if heartland lost 2 bits of biz .....Suzuki and Nissan
Maybe wasn't profitable for them ....but obviously UFC thought the Suzuki business was
It could be that both vehicle companies wanted to lower their finance rates to buyers to give an incentive to purchase a new Mazda etc. Or even a used one! Plus there must be lots of cash sloshing around in Japan looking for a home. It will have an impact, but so will paying off the $100 million bond. They could end up neutral.
Cash is to be made in financing the contractors equipment for the Christchurch re-build. Heartland could have more requests for cash than they can deal with. We are looking at a finance company that has been redecorated and converted to a Bank. (But is still a finance company!).
Suzuki offering cars @ 0% too atm.
Was just browsing through RBNZ's latest Financial Stability report (May 2013). Is littered with warnings re potential instability resulting from house price rises and how it's effecting the banks... HNZ's move out of mortgages keeps proving the smart thing to do (and brave not following the herd).
Also notes that kiwis credit growth is starting to creep back up there... trust HNZ is getting some of that. However does mention concern about growth of debt within the agricultural sector amongst those already operating on high debt levels :( particularly in the dairy sector. Although it does say that amongst the 8 banks the asset quality of agriculture assets has improved over the last two years. Link below... Had a bit of trouble trying to insert the graphs??? insight would be appreciated.
http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/finstab/fsreport/fsr_may13.pdf
Attachment 4559Attachment 4560
Testing.....
Joshuatree - there are no free lunches from the motor industry. 0% finance is just a way of discounting without bastardising the retail price.
All importers of Japanese vehicles are currently flush with extra margin gained from the stronger NZD vs JPY. It's moved from 65 to 85 over the past 4-5 months which translates into plenty of dosh to throw at the market one way or another. If you're buying a new car now's the time to negotiate hard - though you can expect a bit of downward pressure on the value of your trade too.
Percy - read Chris lee this week. He agrees with you, so much so if I didn't know better I would think you are mr Warrington himself
Agree Pierre. Still a good deal for buyers. Have never bought or leased a new car myself and dont intend to as im not in situ to claim writedowns on it for one. Less/ no % margin for Heartland/ banks in no int loans but i guess banks are playing the exchange rate too..
HNZ taking the RECL assets in house and accelerating their disposal and writing off $18m up front. Now expecting full year pre-tax and pre write off profit of $24m and forecasting a healthy NPAT of $ 34-37m for the year ending 30 June 2014.
Also proposing an on market share buyback. Good to get rid of these loans/properties and hopefully all this will lead to a firmer SP
seems to be getting that so far
Will be one of the cheapest growth stock in the Australasian finance sector if they achieve 2014 forecast.
$320m market cap = PE of 8.6x to 9.4x
Mr Market appears to like it !
Great stuff ; all we need now is a great buy up at the FieldDays.Onwards and Upwards.
The Aussie banks do not have that kind of profit growth profile.
I expect funds to switch some exposure from Aussie banks to HNZ now that the last of Dodgie Porgie's deals are out of HNZ.
RECL is such a rip-off as per usual PGC's deals - Get $11m upfront from HNZ, underwrite $30m to be paid out in 7 years' time etc.
Funny how quiet Snoopy has been.
He is still waiting for HNZ's banking license?
Sorry, Snoopy, just pulling your leg.
Thanks for engaging us all in the robust debate on HNZ - markets desperately need individuals like you with your robust analysis and healthy skepticism. Sincerely meant.
On the way up again. May even hit $1.00 by the end of this year. Brilliant situation.
Had a most enjoyable trip down to Ashburton this morning.The mountains looked wonderful,beautiful day.The highlight off course was looking at Heartland House, home of Heartland Bank Ashburton.What I did note was the use of bank in all of Heartland's signage.Heartland Bank appeared in all signage.
And I'd like to offer thanks to you all as well....although I only became convinced around 77.
Great discussions on this forum, much appreciated.
What's next ?:p
Cheers, RTM
Sincere thanks from me too. I purchased in September and November at average of 67. Currently sitting on a nice 25% gain plus a couple of divvies. Looking forward to watching HNZ continue its upward momentum over coming months.
Thanks to all at Heartland for their efforts and to contributors to this forum - especially Percy for his enthusiastic and well-founded advocacy for HNZ.
Yes .. It was good of percy to stand tall on this one.. convincing Sparky et al to join.. belatedly in many cases..
Do not worry .. There is still plenty of upside to come for them..
Kudo's must also go to those that hung in there from the PGC fiasco.. Thus holding the price up when many were nay saying.. ..
Disc.. Veeeeery happy holder.
Looks good. My valuation moved up to 95cps with that forecast - and I would expect that to rise further at half year.
HNZ at present Stockness Monster time 5 05 pm... is... 0.85.. Ho Hum.. :-))) Enjoy... :-))
As per the announcement earnings [on going] of approx. $25 mil,this year, which is your 6.4cents.
Then next year either 8.75cents [$34mil] or 9.5cents [$37mil].
That is earnings growth of 36% [$34mil] or 48% [$37mi].
Either 36% or 48% EPS growth and paying a divie means your 14.8 PE looks about right to me.So I agree with your $1.41.as I think they will achieve their $37mil goal.
Being a gentle peace loving tiger I don't wish to cause unrest but...
Coming up with a pair of valuations based purely upon two sets of results is pretty poor modeling, you need to make assumptions about future years.
Going with the tiger defensive model and normalised profits of 2013: 6.4cps and 2014 9.0cps then if I assume a 15% growth rate after that I can get $1.40 for next year but that gives a current value of $1.20.
[My figures of $0.9 and $1.00 are based on 10% growth tapering off over subsequent years]
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Maybe.???
Future growth rate.?
The $34 to $37mil is either 13% or 23% higher than the $30mil I projected.So I am no good on future projections.
15% pa growth rate maybe too low.HNZ are coming from a small base and may grow at 18% to 20% over the next few years.Could be 25%.?
Trust Bank showed us how quickly a locally owned and operated bank can grow.Heartland are gaining momentum.The branch I looked at in Ashburton today is a bold statement.On the front window it showed Ashburton's history together with Heartland's history.Local pride.I was impressed with Tauranga branch too.We have recently seen UDC post a huge profit increase,so the business is there.
New Zealanders will be proud to support NZ's only listed bank.
Heartland have stated they intend to grow.Timaru and Invercargill are only two I can remember. Timaru they will do well.
Not into disagreeing or agreeing with your numbers Percy..
Do think that you have picked on the angle that HNZ ( rightly ) will be playing..
My first bank account on arrival ( 1959 ) was opened up with the Auckland Savings Bank.. I still have that account..
I opened it with them because I wanted to be an Aucklander. A Kiwi..
So many people today have had enough of foreign take overs..
HNZ should now be giving my Grand children money boxes that the OLD ASB used to give out..
Building a saving habit and a pride in a NEW ZEALAND BANK..
Now stopping saluting the flag and wiping the tears from my eye's..
I still remain convinced that HNZ can be NZ's.... First Bank..
Winnie will love that.