Originally Posted by
Hoop
Sorry BFG for not responding quicker..I haven't had much time lately to view ST posts...and I've just found this one I should respond to.
Referring back to my previous chart.. the TA Targets after the breakout is approx 0.955 for the channel breakout and ~0.97 for the broadening pattern. The trading targets aren't resistance points, they are just points or lines in the sand that suggest there's a ~70% chance of the NZ$ reaching that point after the breakout as long as there are no strong resistances in the way...The broadening wedge pattern target has a strong resistance point in the way...so it would be a much less than 70% chance,,,therefore not a useful target point...and the TA target focus would be on the ~0.955 (the point where Technical Traders may offload [sell])
However it not quite "blue sky" yet...I'm working off an interactive chart* so the figures and dates might not be entirely accurate but it says.. back in Jan and March 2014 the previous double tops (just under 0.95) showed how powerful that historic resistance (~July 1995) was to break...With NZ$ breaking that point recently, will it now be a strong support point??..Theoretically Yes...and provide a much less buy in risk area..
To reach blue sky (assuming since NZ$ free market status) the NZ$ has to break above the ~0.958 * area (Dec 5th 2005)..If the previous historic resistance before that was a guide then reaching "blue sky" could be a difficult hurdle to jump..
If blue sky is reached, there is no existing resistances, so chances of reaching parity would be much improved ...At 1.00 (parity) I would expect there to be a psychological boundary (resistance) area