I remember the beagle telling everyone sum was a sell under 6 bucks then it doubled in value. In a short time. Thinking for yourself is good.
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I remember the beagle telling everyone sum was a sell under 6 bucks then it doubled in value. In a short time. Thinking for yourself is good.
TA is only good for entry/exit. But largely irrelevant if you are a long term investor. I have recently learned the very basics based on that thread that Beagle use to reference (post from KW was it? I can’t find it now hope it wasn’t deleted..?) It was a great post for newbies.
Based on that post HGH is not a buy right now. But then I don’t know how a cap raise changes the TA rules?
TA.
I have bought shares when their chart shows they are "a buy",only to have a profit warning a few days later.
I have sold shares when their chart shows they are "a sell", only to have a takeover [at a premium] announced a few days later.
TA is just another very useful tool to an investor.
However the best "tool" is following companies "that do as they say they will do."
HGH has passed this "tool" test for years.
...and don't forget the meltdown he had with respect to Heartland and exposure to agriculture, dairy in particular. Don't recall the exact details....and he did I think eventually apologize to one and all. Everyone makes mistakes. Wrong predictions, wrong ideas, wrong knowledge suite, no one manages to get it right all the time.
This forum is not as vibrant without his posts, that's for sure. Wish he was still posting here.
It's far from ideal having two forums with many of the same posters on both.
Pity IMO.
Quote Originally Posted by KW View Post
I thought I might start a little discussion on the usefulness of TA for timing. Now I do NOT advocate trading based on TA alone (tried it, lost a lot of money) but if you have used FA to identify a select list of good prospects, TA can be quite useful at knowing when to buy, when to top up, and when to sell. The following are all examples of some of my recent share purchases and sales.
1. When to BUY
I only ever buy companies that are in an uptrend. (Tried buying downtrends, lost a lot of money). The trick is to know when to enter. Get in too early, and the uptrend may turn out to be a dead cat bounce, or fizzle out. Get in too late and you may miss most of the run. My favourite entry point is when the 50 day moving average crosses above the 200 day moving average and the share price is above the 50 day MA. While you miss the early run, the risk of the uptrend not continuing is somewhat abated. I have tried entries based on just the share price crossing above both MA, but 3 out of 4 picks fail to continue on. I confirm the trend by watching the MACD (needs to be in positive territory).
Example: CGF - entry was in early March, when the share price moved back above the 50 day MA and the MACD turned up ($3.64 - $3.81)
Attachment 4517
2. When to TOP UP
Companies that are on exponential uptrends often present difficulties in deciding when to jump in. I have found that many pull back to a moving average, providing excellent entry points while the stock pauses and gets ready for the next leg up. Again, I use the 50 day average and MACD to confirm the uptrend is continuing, rather than the price decline being the start of the new downtrend.
MFG - has been in a strong uptrend for ages, but it took a breather and retreated to just below its 50 day MA. Entry point would have been end of April when the MACD went positive, and the stock price crossed back above the 50 day MA ($6.94 - $7.14)
Attachment 4518
Another great example is SIV - entry point is end of February ($5.90 - $6.28)
Attachment 4519
3. When to SELL
The first warning is when the share price drops below the 50 day moving average and the MACD turns down. This should put the stock on a watch list - its either a good time to top up, or a sell signal is going to be coming up shortly. If the price drops below the 200 day moving average I usually sell (I say usually, because its not uncommon for traders to try to drive the price down that far in order to trigger a bunch of stop losses, so you need to watch out for this little trick as often the share price rebounds immediately. IIN and CSV are good examples of this manipulation). If the "death cross" occurs (where the 50 day moving average crosses below the 200 day moving average, this is a signal that the downtrend is now firmly established).
ALQ - I bought into this thinking it had turned the corner and was heading back into a strong uptrend. Alas it was not to be, and in mid-March an exit was signalled ($10.50 - $10.80). Even though the price has rebounded recently, its still a death cross situation, and its more likely than not that the downtrend will continue for a while.
Attachment 4520
I hope others find this useful - its how I make decisions at the moment, its very simple, but pretty effective. Its part of my "get rich slow" investment strategy :-) If anyone else has any examples of when they enter or exit, then please post them.
SPP shares are now trading in Australia (and NZ from last Friday) so any need to sell off/profit take will subside soon. Already the share price is well bid at $1.85 so will be interesting where the dust settles by, say, the end of the month. My guess is $1.95.
Just had an email to new shareholders offering a special TD rate of 4% for 6 months and 4.3% for 12 months.
According to a comparisons website I checked that 6-month offer is the best with any of the main deposit takers, albeit the 12-month offer is less of a standout. The comparative HBC rates are 3.6% and 4.2% respectively so the offer is advantageous in that regard also.
A good and simple marketing ploy anyhow.
Anyone else having trouble with missing dividend of shares sold on 25th August ie first ex dividend day ?
I sold some ex dividend on 25th August and didnt get dividend for them ...I claim that dividend from ASB Securities ?