Gosh. Realise how wrong I was. Really important that we only have people on share trader who agree with us, and express themselves in an approved manner. Pretty hard to believe it’s come to this.
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Maybe everyone should just chill. For all you know, it is a temporary ban, as many are. I know no more than the rest of you do, but this forum has rules and we all agreed to follow them when we first signed up. SR has breached at least some of those rules. Sometimes a short term ban does wonders for the "addiction" and stress levels. There is zero point speculating or ranting and raving. This is not our forum and we pay nothing for the privilege of using it. If you don't wish to be subjected to rules, best find another forum.
Having said that, I will admit there appears to be major inconsistencies around who gets banned and who doesn't. So maybe direct your anger at those inconsistencies, rather than the rules in general.
I did answer that in a seperate post, just not in direct response.
The difference lies in how you are informed you are in your predictions, for example if you purchase stock expecting price multiple expansion beyond it's intrinsic value I think that's stupid because I don't think there's a way of assigning a probability of that occurring. Nothing is a given in investing it's just doing the best you can with the information you have available, so like in the scenario you gave with BlackBerry you might lose money despite making a reasonably informed investment decision. There are ways of mitigating these risks though.
"Toxic Combo" Of Recent Events To De-Stabilize Markets? | Luke Gromen – Macro Analyst
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJre24DhRR4
Four Destabilizing things have just happened.
1. The price of oil picked up about 20 percent off the lows
2. You had the bank of Japan widen out their yield curve control on JGBS
3. You had the U.S get downgraded
4. The U.S treasury came out and updated their borrowing estimates. They're going to borrow one almost 1.9 trillion dollars in the back half of this year.
When you put all of these things together they are a very toxic combination.
Last year Luke said that the FED would be forced to resume liquidity injections by the end of third quarter 2022 and that was wrong because Treasury did it. FED kept tightening, Treasury loosened.
Yellen offset more than offset QT by running down the Treasury General Account in the fourth quarter of last year, which bought time for the system e.g. the U.S banking system strains in March.
The FED got a great PR you know this BTFP is not QE. Great they're growing their balance sheet again. They are effectively doing a soft form of yield curve control by writing up the value that they will lend against treasuries relative to the market. So, the FED did get involved there.
"Toxic Combo" Of Recent Events To De-Stabilize Markets? | Luke Gromen – Macro Analyst
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJre24DhRR4
11:28 The mismatch between fiscal and monetary policies.
Fiscal policy - US government saying we have these geopolitical goals or imperatives in Europe with Russia, we need to move away from China, we need to reshore our productive capacity, we cannot produce shells to support an industrial war with a major power because our industrial base has been so hollowed out over the last 25 years. The DOD is like hey great do it. DOD is saying we can't fight a war, we're borrowing money from China to build weapons made in China.
Monetary policy - the Fed's saying I need low inflation.
Treasury is saying I need the strong dollar to try to place this paper.
You can have one of two things you can have a strong dollar, low inflation low rates or you can pursue the geopolitical policies that America is trying to pursue, namely the United States will need to buy components from China to build the weapons to encircle China.
The Fed and Treasury are trying to preserve the strong dollar for the primacy of the bond market. It's no longer in the interest of America.
If we have a strong dollar, if we have low inflation then the bond market has to get killed on a real basis an inflation-adjusted terms because what has to happen is we run 10, 12, 15, percent of GDP deficits.
Will Powell keep raising rates and keep money tight and force the US government to make 40 to 60 percent cuts now permanently to defence and entitlements because those are the only two things you can cut other than Treasury spending to stop those deficits. Nothing else matters, it's entitlements, interest, defence in that order. So Powell do you think your legacy will be helped by cutting entitlements and by cutting defence tomorrow permanently by 40 to 60 percent which is what Stan Druckenmiller estimated needed to be cut in his presentation out at USC a few months ago.
For the last 40 years bondholders and Wall Street and China won, and Washington DC, that's who got richer, and the working class in the middle-class America got poorer.
We need to decide do we want to maintain the real value of our bonds, or do we want to actually compete.
If they decide they want to compete it's going to be wildly inflationary, if you own a lot of bonds you're going to go from eating steak to eating dog food.
Everyone load up on debt
Way ahead of you Rawz :laugh: