Originally Posted by
Maverick
That’s a logical idea but my record of doing “fancy footwork “and also watching others suggests that doesn’t seem to play out well. Plus there’s the tax implications.
As stated yesterday , it all comes down to when the broader property market turnover normalises . My opinion is that is not far away. Plus with the NZX being forward looking by 6 months, then the property turnaround could happen by Christmas which would affect share prices now. Perhaps that’s what drove the recent sector rally.
Im a big fan of Tony Alexander’s work on all this . His work is strongly pointing to the property market bottoming about now. So I thinking the recovery of the Share price has already begun.
Also the Helier starting is starting to be occupied now , even in this depressed property market , next report will still have a very nice lift . The analysts are saying it, my work is clearly saying it too.
Then at some point property will flow again, then we have a very powerfull concoction for things to get really good really fast. IMO stepping out now is the dead wrong thing to do. This is the time to step in.
If I came across a bit negative yesterday , I didn’t mean to. OCA were going to have a doozey 1HY24 which has now been dampened somewhat by a later delivery time of Helier and Bellevue (Chch) and more significantly, by the broad property slow down . But it will still be a VERY good result, and then onwards . It’s just that things won’t really race ahead for OCA untill the overall market normalises activity to unlock that backlog of unsold stock.
IMO that seems highly likely somewhere in the next 6 months.