Yes, from an outside observer perspective it certainly does look grim.
However, I think an extension will be granted. The government needs some big gas discoveries if they have any chance of a 'just' and 'smooth' transition (to whatever it is we are transitioning to - they are yet to figure that out :D)
It may well be that an extension only delays the inevitable surrender due to lack of farm-in partners. But it does provide some chance for OGOG, NZOG and Beach to leverage their relationships and secure additional investors.
Though it isn't looking particularly hopeful right now, I don't think we can conclude that it is hopeless...