Ha! Well, you know by now I am not into the 'predicting' game regarding when a SP may reach a certain level. If one thing is clear it is that I have absolutely no idea how the market will behave!
And I am not alone. Early 2019 Greg Smith predicted the SP would lift to $2/share by the end of this year. Ha! He now predicts it will hit 55c/share post CR in a couple of years. From where we are now, that would be a whopping Market Cap north of $900M!
So with regards to your question about MC of $600M. I have no idea - clearly any continued optimism in Sky's future prospects are going to depend on a number of factors, including:
- Return of all Live Sport, including live crowds in stadia
- Successful release of the merged Lightbox-NEON offering. June or July 2020.
- Successful release of broadband offering. I know the newspapers say 'next year' but the presentation says FY21. So that could be anytime from 1 July 2020. The sooner the better.
- Return of some kind of a dividend - possibly in FY22. So that could be in the second half of next year at the earliest.
- Retaining more of their key entertainment rights
A PE of 15 would be not bullish nor bearish. So to achieve a market cap of $600M, in theory GAAP earnings of $40M would do it. I don't have a crystal ball, and the business is still spending a lot of money on repositioning for growth...but building back to GAAP earnings of at least $40M in a 'reasonable timeframe' does not seem completely lunatic to me.
Though my critics will will say that I have been optimistic about Sky for the last couple of years and the market has disagreed with me the whole time. They would say that only a nut would give me the time of day at this stage!