Question: was the prospect of this cap raise/underwrite bought up at the AGM? If not, why not? These things take a while to sort and the Board must have known.....
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Question: was the prospect of this cap raise/underwrite bought up at the AGM? If not, why not? These things take a while to sort and the Board must have known.....
The only ones in the loop are the board, C management, organising broker(s) and people who get info through 'chinese walls'. One or two on these threads in that category. Shareholders are the last to find out, as they are just 'flies' according to FB
Having said that it was patently obvious that this was coming, despite the Sergeant Schultz denials of management
https://www.odt.co.nz/business/pacif...enty-questions
Seems like plenty of good questions were asked but no real answers were given.
The question as to why Dunedin's Southern Health Board has not adopted CxBladder for use is very very very telling. Big red flag.
https://www.odt.co.nz/business/pacif...se-213-million
Some choice quotes in the article!
Excerpt 1 : "On the question of ``shareholder fatigue'', Mr McIntyre said if shareholders opted not to participate, they would see the value of their shares further diluted, given 66.6 million were being issued."
Comment : Bad advice! Shareholders would have been better off not to participate in the other capital raise as with every raising, the overall values of their shares keep dropping!
Excerpt 2 : "Forsyth Barr broker Lyn Howe said the cash injection was necessary and investors continued to require patience with Pacific Edge."
Comment : Patience? What wonderful advice from a broker!
Excerpt 3 : "Yesterday, Mr McIntyre said it ``came as no surprise'', Pacific Edge had to again go to shareholders, noting some ``earlier stage'' shareholders would be ``suffering capital raising fatigue''."
Comment : Wonder if he and his firm have been advising clients to get the hell out given 'NO' surprise.
Why buy @ 32c when you can get them at sub 20c?
I am trying to figure out the motive of the underwriter... the last one, but also this one. Surely they are taking a huge punt at 32 because I think many are going to let their rights lapse, even if the sp is above 32 come "money" day. And trying to prop up the share price at 32-36 is just digging a bigger hole for yourself in my humble opinion. Or they do believe the story and think that 32 is a great entry point.
I have a feeling insto's will be doing under cover unloading to reduce exposure.
Well at these prices and the way it is going some of the instos will be selling under 32 to buy at 32 later in the underwrite. Not looking good at the moment but quite possible some larger orders come later at the 32-33 mark, well they did with the last capital raise.
I always though the convential wisdom was that if instos held it was good news
Oops - 32c!
FNZC will be looking closely at its underwrite agreement for remedies to get out of this disaster.
The fat lady just got out in front of the microphone.
Underwriter will suck on this one.
There is no way that any half sane investor or shareholder cannot see through the 'support' from the underwriter leading to the closing of the rights issue.
Post issue, sp will most likely go to well below 30c when the rights issue related support is gone.
Panic selling - we've seen it before, as defined by the relatively small volumes
like after most cap raise annoucements, PEB shares will start to rise after a few days... but who knows if that rise will continue or if another cap raise will be on the way.
The insto's are going to end up owning even more... and lets hope David pulls his finger out (fourth time lucky is it?)
Balance did you put in a bid @ 1c?
Does page 13 imply that tests are now selling for circa $1000 each?
Content holder, have manged my holding correctly,
Very interested in PEB developing other markets (Singapore, Japan).
Its a pity guidelines are so slow. One only has to look at MDXhealth change of performance once their prostate product was included in the NCCN guidelines.
Some Insures are still requiring FDA approval before covering bc diagnostic tests. Not covering LDT sucks.
Some big lawsuits currently underway regarding Vets and exposure to chemicals and bad water. Hopefully VA can utilise Cxbladder to save some money and lives.
Wouldn't mind seeing Tolmar/PEB getting behind some of the 20k Qld firefighters in fighting bc. Changes in work cover laws now cover bc for those who have served over 15 years i believe.
Think ill look to add to my holding over the next few months and trade into positive announcements.
Good luck indeed, Carpenterjoe.
Always good to have a believer or many believers in a speculative stock like PEB.
Officially, doing 8,348 tests (including user programmes) - so just 54% less than what you thought they were doing in 2016.
You are right about abother CR - in fact, two so far and I suspect this one will be the last.
Fat lady is in front of the microphone.
Guess when PEB made this comment to NBR?
"Pacific Edge says that it has enough cash to continue operating at its cost base for another 15 months and hopes to secure sufficient sales to breakeven before that cash runs out".
It was Nov 2016.
https://www.nbr.co.nz/subscribe/197140
15 months to me means February 2018. But maybe, we are (as W69 often points out) we are in PEB time?
Feb 2017 - $8m capital raise.
Oct 2017 - $21m capital raise.
Not a company whose words you can trust - AT ALL!
Yup.
Latest update via the latest cap raise is that 2019 ACCRUED revenues are projected to be $27.9m - only 72.1% less than the $100m revenues, reaffirmed by the excitable excited David Darling with his trans-formative exciting inclinations towards user programs and the millions of exciting test opportunities in the US.
"could be a last-chance opportunity for the bladder cancer diagnostics company because it has already raised $111.6m of equity, has had total commercial revenue of only $16.0m since inception in 2001 and losses of $94.5m over this 15-year period."
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/personal-f...ectid=11932876
wow total revenue of $16m since inception. That is astounding.
Gaynor is not making one very critical pertinent point re the capital raisings imo - which is that DD has made all kinds of incorrect, misleading and plain mistruths to get hold of the money to keep PEB going.
https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/pacifi...ement-b-199506
No other way to explain this BS statement from him in Feb 2017 :
"While the company has sufficient cash of $9m to meet its immediate growth requirements, the new investments provides additional support for Pacific Edge to drive its commercial growth."
When did cash required to keep the company alive = growth?
Some seriously big fat stupid institutions out there who funded that 'commercial' growth?
Actionable I believe if someone has relied upon that statement and foolishly invested in PEB at that time.
http://www.targetedonc.com/news/new-...c-surveillance
Time marches on - yet new tests developed by others as PEB burns through its cash (and yet, more capital raisings) with a cost structure which includes over $7.5m of salaries to the top 35 employees last YE.
Hats off to DD for his ability to 'mine' the 4 institutions (Devon, Salt, FNZC and Harbour) who now own over 50%. Johnny come latelys pick at the bones?
Add on Tindall, Masfen and a few other original shareholders (who to their credit obtained their shares at well under 30c) and over 65% of the shares are owned by them.
CxBladder has the edge and we continue to wait patiently for the likes of Kaiser to agree buy a lot of tests. I wasn't pleased by this recent $21m but expected that it may happen. Originally the many significant insto's would have agreed, by legal contract, to continue to hold their stock until company success, and to not crash it. It does appear one major player may have sold out as shown by the selling pressure on the price and the size of a few trades - yes, it is reasonable to assume there are frustrated insto's who want to move on.
I think it is fair to say PEB are being held up, and they want to get going. I think the recent raise was more driven around ensuring the going concern of PEB, particularly from an audit perspective. That is why I intimated the reasons behind this latest raise were not exactly the same as per previous raises. Whether they needed that full $21m is debateable (in my view), but that's just how the mathematics panned out.
One theory could be that it is a specific timeframe delay, in that there are utterances about a time Kaiser may be coming aboard and that the amount to raise is going to take them to that point. i.e. $21m.
Disclosure: I have upped my holding recently at the 34c mark.
Not for me to recommend but the users - ie. not patients but actually, the urologists and GPs.
Remember the old Beta (Sony) vs VHS (Panasonic) - all the experts agreed that Beta was the more superior technology but VHS won the day by getting onside with content providers and industry players.
PEB's strategy of going it alone is costing it plenty - not only $ wise.
There are 3 possible scenarios as I see it:
- Fail to sign up Kaiser and don't get their LCD from CMS - disaster
- Agreement is signed with Kaiser by March next year (although maybe not at the price they want given that Kaiser must know they are desperate). Short term surge in the share price. By May next year still no sign of the CMS agreement despite talks "progressing well", share price drops again, eventual disaster
- Sign with Kaiser followed by CMS a month or 2 later. Everyone happy.
From their presentation it is evident that without CMS (50% of their revenue) they are sunk. They obviously have an estimated date in mind for when they are expecting to sign them up and have modelled the effect on revenue of a 4 month delay in doing so. They also state that the actual date is "outside of Pacific Edge’s control."
I am reasonably confident they will sign up with Kaiser but not so CMS given that every year we have been told an agreement is imminent and every year we have been disappointed.
For myself I am waiting for the Kaiser agreement before selling the remainder of my holding. Should the CMS agreement come through in time I’ll jump back in.
In May 2015 (when PEB was raising its 'take us to profitability' $35m capital at 61c per share), PEB stated :
“Process underway with key customers Center for Medicare & Medicaid Services (“CMS”) and Veterans Association with conclusion expected in 2015”
Well, it is 2017 and still no CMS.
The optimists in this forum will no doubt read that as meaning it (CMS approval) must be getting close. The realist will read it that PEB has absolutely no idea and has been stringing the market along to raise the funds required to keep the company alive.
PS. In fact, go back far enough and the company expected CMS in early 2014!!!!!!
Crystal ball time..... Hear me out.....
I agree that CXbladder as a technology has a viable future and will provide positive health outcomes for many.
The cost base upon which they have chosen to launch this test (own testing labs etc) is burning alot of $$$ which is not value adding and/or could be better used to support other areas of the company.
I see the following happening....(within a 3yr term). The sales dont eventuate like PEB want, the sp is suppressed, DD resigns, a US based CEO with diagnostic background is appointed who develops a new strategy to close the testing labs, slash the workforce and license out the testing either as a manufacturer or as a purely IP play to an incumbant.
Flame me if you must, but IMHO
I don't see DD resigning. He'll guts it out to the bitter end, although they would probably be better suited getting a fresh CEO at some point, and move DD into a technical role. Negotiation skill is a must from this point. I would not be unhappy with a $2.50+ takeover offer for the shares if a big player likes the technology and can scale it up far beyond what PEB can do, ofcourse in the medium/long-term.
Indeed!
Best example of planet PEB : https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/267494.pdf
Page 8 - Lab throughputs
FY14 - 168
FY15 - 3910
Chris Swann in Dec 2013 : "Several tens of thousands of tests" in 2014! Guess that means at least 30,000?
Note : Lab throughput included user programmes and commercial tests!
https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/308860
"Team punches well above its weight in the global market' - PEB sure does! $7.5m of salaries for top 35 executives last year to produce $20m loss and no tangible progress on the 'transformative' customers!
And of course, in PEB's parallel universe, 168 plus 3910 tests = several tens of thousands!
In PEB's parallel universe, 16 years = 2.17 years so PEB is in its infancy (you need to do the maths with actual vs 'several tens of thousands of tests')
He will indeed be beside himself with transformative excitement at pursuing the 'high growth' opportunities after being identified as a TIN(pot) company!
More user programs in the pipeline to boost the test numbers?
Observe the underwriter's gallant attempt to dress up this morning's opening quotes to open at 34c?
Presumably underwriter (as only a prize buffoon) would pay up to get stock at 34c knowing full well there will be plenty of selling at 33c at least.
Maybe underwriter is feeling sorry for long suffering PEB shareholders so giving some who are not intending to put in any more money to make 2c by selling at 34c and buying back via the rights at 32c.
6.25% return over a month is not a bad return!
Oops - wrote too soon. Stock being offered now at 33c and underwriter has retreated to 32.5c? Hardly worth the hassle now.
FNZC in their wildest most pessimistic dreams would not have picked a 30% drop in share price from the rights issue announcement. What's wrong with investors? Do they not know a good high growth company recognized by TIN (pot)?
FNZC normally would lay off some of the underwriting risk with sub-underwriters, principally the large existing institutional shareholders like Salt & Devon. In return, the institutions who participate get a cut of the underwriting fees and first shot at taking up the shortfall by being invited to participate in bidding for the shortfall.
What could be different this time is that some of the institutional shareholders did not participate in the last capital raise (eg, Tindall) so are unlikely to this time round.
So FNZC could end up sucking on this one although they have done well out of the last 2 capital raisings.
I suppose with their underwriters fee of $2 million?? (don't know how much it is but presume it would have to be a lot, can someone clarify) they would have a bit of a buffer if things turned south. Still they could end up with a lot of stock that they do not really want. Does the house hold the stock as a long term investor or will they be looking to sell it all and get rid of it?
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/267919.pdf
Some interesting conditions imposed under 7. Underwriting Agreement - eg. FNZC obviously do not want any further issue of shares to leave the way clear for 6 months in any shape or form by PEB in case they get caught with stock.
Underwriting fee of 1.5% ($319,500) plus management fee (within range, they say, of deals of this type?).
If 2015 rights shortfall trading is any indication, FNZC will hold the stock and then, trade the stock out - as in buying shares (when appropriate) and selling shares (especially when there are positive announcements).
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/216091.pdf
Fun and games ahead!
Obviously TIN people don’t take into account bad debts when counting revenues
Well, positive announcement on being a top 10 hot emerging company lifted the sp by 1.8%.
Was actually more but a seller dumped 260,000 shares (33.5c) at the close so poor ole underwriter must have been rather miffed after massaging the sp at 34c whole day?
Guess the seller is happy to gain 1.5c arbitrage on 32c? That's $3,900 - buys a couple of new iPhone X anyway. :D
Underwriter will be pleased they do not have to take 260,000 shortfall from this seller - but then, they have just given away their underwriting fee (and more) supporting this trade?
Love the way the (presumably) underwriter is trying to dress up the depth?
Buyer at 34.5c - for 13,000 shares! May just scare away the sellers, see?
Well, if that's the strategy, it appears to be successful. Not much depth on the sell side.
But yes, given PEB's history of broken promises and given the terrible TA would I think that only people with dead certain insider information should buy in at this stage ... ;) unless - they want to (on the balance of probabilities) lose their money, but for the second group I could imagine more pleasant ways ...
On the other hand ... this time it will be different - won't it?
there are still people with faith in the product who dont seem to realise the product can be good but the business can still fail.
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...Limited/page34
See how Salt Funds actually increased its stake in VIL, the company which has just been pinged for non-disclosure of very material information.
Yup, there are believers out there alright.
Had a good laugh at this post. So true, the seller gets 1.5 cents on the 32, but yes underwrite does not have to take 260,000 shortfall but has 260,000 shares at 33.5 themselves now that they have bought that they might have to get rid of at prices less than that. If a few "smart" mischievous instos got together they could sell a shed load to the underwriter (who is obviously propping up the price) and then see what happens post rights. Fun and games indeed.
I think what t.resir may be implying is that FNZC is the seller and somebody else is the buyer.
Could be - just as there are those out there who are still happy to pour more money into PEB when the pattern of raising capital at ever lower issue prices is one big waving red flag of where it is heading.
Ah I see, that thought never even entered my mind. Its patently obvious (well to me anyway) that the larger orders at the 32-33.5 mark are the underwriter propping up the price. But yes, it could indeed be some retail or other institutions getting some cheap shares.
Anyone know what Chelsea thinks about PEB and their high regard for the company? Amusing how they pumped the company. DYOR.
Dont mean to be a downer but the equity research advice in this country is terrible.
Nah, at one point he said 'that's a GREAT question Chelsea'
:D
Check their valuations/recommendations from the past. Very amusing reading. They have no concept of the US healthcare system and have cost their clients millions.
Speaking of that Tim Hunters NBR article was great. Hes one of the few that know their stuff.
PEB up a little bit today. Intriguing.
wow the underwriter must have been working in overdrive today!
Suddenly, out of nowhere, the buyers are lining up again and the sellers are diminishing - I have to say seems a bit suspect, then again, if they actually do achieve what they say they will achieve (that is cash flow break even in well under 2 years time), then 38 cents is still ultra cheap.
Yep 38 cents is quite cheap. I think this is a $2+ stock, or possibly $2.50+, when things start to happen.
Be very cautious Ive seen this before when without real reason the share price of a issue rising close to the close out of a funding date in order me thinks to get it across the line ( read underwtiter here ) then once that was out of the way the S P falling back in some cases to below the issue price, very strange , circa BIL from the 80's !!!!
http://mendonjournal.com/medical-new...-steps-closer/
"sensitivity of 95 percent for higher-risk cancers and a negative predictive value greater than 97 percent".
PEB's road to commercialization may have just encountered a landslip?
Market manipulation is buying and selling on the market too so when does “engineering” become market manipulation? When does it cross the line?
I believe there is a lot of “engineering”. It’s certainly not a level playing field and small retail investors often feel they don’t get a fair deal – plenty of comments on sharetrader about that.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/9002...e-market-twice
FMA chief executive Rob Everett said the market watchdog was pleased with the outcome.
Market manipulation threatens our core objective of promoting fair, efficient and transparent financial markets.
"For investors to participate confidently in our markets we need to target and respond to misconduct.
"That is what this case was about."
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indu...t-manipulation
He also admitted to placing multiple orders for buying and selling Diligent shares without completing the trade, in a practice known as layering.
The process gave a false impression of trading interest in Diligent shares, forcing other buyers to bid at higher prices and affecting the market closing price.
Agree looks a little dodgy. Smokey room deal to trade shares to maintain a price? The depth chart is the give away orders all they way down uniformly in .5 increments.
A reminder of the closing date , is that a sign of panic ?
Standard process from what I have experienced.
Last day today for the issue, who is in ?
I decided against it.
I hold a few at an OK average, but was not prepared to donate any more money based on the lack of information and vague time lines outlined in the offer documents. Might top up if and when there is any actual positive news, with regards to the transformational customers or any real progress.