Yep me too fredd;)
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Yep me too fredd;)
In my opinion these people are making a mistake. Private Equity has often done very well in NZ. Ryman, Summerset, Scales and NZ King Salmon all came from private equity. Imagine if you said soon after Ryman was listed "I don't touch private equity." Well you've been made to look a fool!
I'm sure this Macquarie thing is no big deal. In fact if you just keep your eye on the share price and don't worry about any news you may not even know when they sell down - that's how much impact I expect it to have.... zilch!
Check out what happened when Quadrant sold their last remaining 50 million shares of Summerset in October 2013. Shares traded at $3.14 when a trading halt was announced to let the sale proceed. The sale went through to local institutions at $3.10.
If you want to worry about something like that, go right ahead, but this result today tells me that this has the makings of being a wonderful investment opportunity for those who choose to get amongst it.
Disc: I doubled my holding today, so that this now represents 15% of my total portfolio and I plan on having every single share I own for a long long time!
Top marks for that post. I couldn't agree more and also approximately doubled my holding today and I have more dry powder if the price gets even sillier. I reckon the smart money was buying this afternoon at the rock bottom forward PE of about 8.2 at $1.10 knowing full well the huge overhang is effectively giving them a free lunch as long as they are patient holders. Pleased to say I had a decent piece of that action.
Surely a good time to buy must be when Macquarie starts to sell ?
When an entity has such a signficant holding like this they will most likely sell to other large organisations so as to not flood the retail market. They have the most to lose if they flood the market with shares.
Neither large organisation (the buyer or seller) wants to fluff around buying small holdings when they can do so more efficiently privately and negotiate with one counterpart.
That's the way I see it anyway, we just saw something similar happen with Eliot Crowthers significant holding in Pushpay, a cool $100 million worth.
Of course you're not casting aspersions against anyone in particular as that would be actionable but to allege the books are "suspect" is to effectively imply that there is the possibility that under instructions from Macquarie the company's accountant, CFO and CEO all colluded to produce a set of financial statements (that the directors have to sign off on so they must be in on it too) that are created to assist Macquarie to window dress any potential sell down process. All this pre-supposes that not only have they all colluded but they are all confident that the auditors won't pick up anything untoward. I for one think you are drawing a VERY long bow. I am not so naïve as to suggest that this is completely impossible but I think its highly unlikely. I get it that you don't like the fact that PE is still the major shareholder but as Bobby Morocco has pointed out not investing on that principle has cost others plenty with other floats in this sector. Each to their own investment methodology though but as foe me, I didn't get enough volume in the early days of RYM or SUM and certainly won't be making the same mistake again.
Keeping some powder for an opp if the sell down happens, there is a chance of averaging down , no drama or worrying going on anywhere i can see, so we will see limmy and fredd, im prepared.
OCEANIA HEALTHCARE CEO EXPECTS MACQUARIE TO START SELLING DOWN CONTROLLING STAKE
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/f...ing-stake.html
also ryman pay increase will put pressure on oceania to match , funding doesnt cover it.
Well, the sooner the better, if everyone thinks their overhang has held back the SP, then we can get the SUMesque lift that followed Q's exit. The insto's here will be underexposed, just waiting for the day the broker calls, looking for an expression of interest.
So will I
Positive start to the day
A 100,000 transaction a while ago