I too beleive the options will worthless by June 30th, however Nita is still on the fence with the possibility of jumping in for more.
Wait for it...
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I too beleive the options will worthless by June 30th, however Nita is still on the fence with the possibility of jumping in for more.
Wait for it...
Some excellent points made, in various perceptive postings above. I came to the conclusion several months ago that the chances of the options being worth anything on expiry date were looking exceedingly unlikely, and I took my profits.
Put me down as a member of the zero brigade.
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More loot for the head holders when the re-rating finally comes after a full year of Tui production ......
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Shrewd, good point about the price a the pumps. $US100 per barrel works out at about 70c NZ per litre of crude, so refined product probably still comes in under or around a buck a litre at the pumps. The extra 80 cents is added value for aunty Helen's troff.
I am not a big risk taker, hence most of my decisions are based on fundamentals investing for med/long term. I dont have a crystal ball and have no idea if NZO will be $1.50 or not in 5 months time. If these were "in the money" options I would take a punt, but "out of the money" options are far too risky for me.
The Doc prefers to stick to head shares.
http://www.aip.com.au/pricing/marketwatch.htm has 95 Octane at A$113 say NZ$129 a barrel, wholesale, untaxed, ex east coast oz refinery. Our wholesale prices should be much the same in as much as they actually exist.
Add to this, the distribution costs and the retail markup (and our retailer provided all our kids with their first work experience) and you get the cost of petrol. The price of petrol on the other hand includes, as Arjay notes, a contribution to the shieks of Wellington. Blaming Arabs for the price of oil is a bit rich when you see what our own kith and kin are doing.
Currently refining margins on petrol are under $US10 per barrel, say 7c / litre so the Wellington cut may be even bigger.
IMO currently, the Oppies will be in the money, just. Too late, too much cash required. But this is probably the worst outcome as they will still be worth nothing as the company hasn't got anything more worthwhile to spend it on than what they currently have capacity to finance.
The best option then will be to look for an amalgamation with an Ozzie oiler. I won't like to be putting in my share of NZD150M for that prospect...so my Oppies will still lapse...
The Directors have stuffed this up bigtime, only extreme luck can save them now. There was never a need for these Options, as there is no need for dual listing, and no use for yet more capital...they should have offered to buy them back for 10cps (or at market which was very close to 10cps) at the AGM. Instead they chose to stuff their shareholders around to the tune of 150M x10c or NZD15M...
The decision to do nothing was a mistake...time will tell
Indeed Manxman, from what you say we'd only be paying around 65c/litre if the stuff wasn't taxed etc. Even so, apart from metred water at the gate, is there any other commercially supplied liquid that is as cheap as $1.80/litre petrol? The stuff's still ludicrously cheap for what it is.
Why do you suggest that the directors "stuffed up bigtime" by not needlessly giving away $15M of shareholders funds?
How did they "stuff their shareholders around"?
The options were given away, and have provided takeover protection and an opportunity for taking profits or extending exposure during the extensive 2006/2007 drilling program. They have done their job well. The drilling program came up empty, so the options probably won't be in the money. Pretty much what was to be expected in those circumstances.