I wonder if there will be funds in the budget for care beds / care suites
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I wonder if there will be funds in the budget for care beds / care suites
I seriously doubt Labour has given any thought whatsoever, to addressing the current funding situation, or any other aspect of the aged care crisis we are currently in. I have zero expectation of anything in the budget.
But before the usual players decide to make that about Labour, don’t waste your breath. I don’t for one minute believe this will be on National’s radar either. Aged care is simply not a priority for either party. They have both dumped it in the “too hard” basket and I have zero confidence in either of them to address it.
I hope I am wrong but I am not holding my breath.
I don't see there being any change, however I will be interested to see how much the Covid costs have depreciated
Habits…”careful what you wish for”. ..
It all comes down to what hat you wear. Are you an investor, a participant or involved at the coal face?
For me , obviously a huge investor but I'm also a participant ( as a spoiled child watching my inheritance fall). My mum is in a RYM dementia unit through whom I've learnt such MASSIVE respect for the amazing ladies( sorry lads, that's how it is) that dedicate themselves to her care. So 2 very opposing hats.
My first hat ( but not the most important) … Investor;
The current underfunding that has been happening for about 4 years now is playing progressively into OCAs hands. Rest homes are closing and absolutely no new bed construction.
My -NZ 3rd most-affordable town - Whanganui, just lost another older rest home that's been running for decades.
If you are mortgage free, sick and need assistance now, what are you going to do? I tell ya..around here , you pay the price asked by whoever is still operating.
OCA average caresuite sells for $310k ( that's both new and resales-no difference). Think about that for a moment, some will be less but others much more.
Taupo , for example, a pretty benign place real estate wise, is selling theirs for over $300k and there's a waiting list .. Auckland now has some for sale for $500k!
So the dearth of options means pretty well anyone mortgage free has a real easy choice to make. Care suite or your place.
Commercially , this is shooting fish in a barrel. That's an awful term to use but remember we are just talking purely commercial.
Next point is that Government funding is asset tested.Here's something some will not be aware of. If you choose to go into a care suite you will almost certainly NOT qualify for any Govt assistance. Your ORA is considered an asset by DHB. Fun fact…Helier aims to run completely outside of any govt framework.
So regardless of potential budget Govt help increases this week, if you buy a OCA caresuite, you will still most likely be paying the full unsubsidized cost of everything until you're down to your last $200k ish.
Heads up Habits-may as well buy that Mustang or Surtees now…. fishing emoji here.
Continued Govt underfunding will cause even more traditional care bed home closures. Remember OCA have 1000 care suits with 700 to come. Thats a sh*t load , let me calibrate that, ARV - its closest cousin-has only 100 to date.
Now the homework part- OCA gets 15% DMF for the first year. 10% yr 2 then 5% the 3rd year. ( tenure of a care suite is 3 years) If you do the math on an industry standard $600-800k villa that the tenure is 8 years at 30% then you easily work out caresuites are nothing to be sneezed at. ( if you have the scale,infrastructure and human care component to make it all work)
Last 1HY23 the headline was ….”Care suites premiumization delivering results.”
This is one of the 3 drivers to look out for in next week's result. Brent was right to identify it. It's something that is material and increasing in a slow juggernaut kind of way. I'm expecting about care-$2-3 m increase in 2hy23. This will underscore an increasing bulletproof cash flow. That's almost regardless of government budgets and HPI falls.
I've always said OCAs 10 year transformation / profits is about the apartments- that hasn't altered. The caresuite strength is just a really nice booster - the real show is the apartments that are being built and being sold down…again speaking purely as an investor.
As a son of a mum in RYM dementia care;
WOW,.. I was there again today with mum after 6 months of this , and seeing the real , human , genuine, caring interaction with the nurses, carers, whatever their rank…just WOW!
If you don't have a parent with dementia then you wont understand. RYM and their team are doing a stunning job. These women genuinely care for mum and are doing a job that I am not capable of. I can show up with a mothers day thingy…oooohh, ahh , but they are there every hour until I choose to call in next.
Jusk A Kiwi…you guys are legends.
Thanks Mav. Appreciate what you are saying My Mums in Rymans as well been from Townhouse to Resthome then Demntia Care now Hospital Care.Looked after every step of the way with great care and compassion not thinking you will need all those stages along the way but one never knows taken a load off family and much appreciated.The system if needed works well if on board with Resthome. You’re right people like Just A Kiwi are legends.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/1320...id=app-android
Wonder if this will have any impact on OCA
This article is about an OCA care home where patients where supposed to be supervised at all times, they weren't, resulting in two residents fighting, one of which was killed by being punched, falling over and hitting his head on the ground.
Sometimes events like these can trigger other articles and further reputational damage.
I don't know the details of this incident obviously - none of us do. But what I can tell you is this. It doesn't matter which rest home/care suite/dementia unit/hospital wing someone is in, the reality is that no provider can ever guarantee that incidents will not happen. We, as caregivers do our very best to keep a close eye on our residents, and our focus is always on keeping them safe. But unless you have staff ratios that allow one-to-one supervision, we cannot possibly supervise every resident 24/7. It literally cannot be done. This is not an OCA "thing" - it is the reality of aging and living with other people. When you add dementia into the mix, it simply increases the chance of an event - a fall, someone wandering off site (not everyone with dementia is in a secure unit), wandering into places they are not supposed to be such as other resident's rooms etc, or even an altercation/fight like this one.
The fact that (according to the article) the OCA policy is for one staff member to always be in the lounge, is impressive. There is no way we could ever meet that requirement in the rest home I worked in, nor was it possible in the secure dementia wing my Mum used to go to for respite. An emergency call bell may alarm, which in most cases means all staff have to respond initially, and if they are not required they can return to what they were doing. There are so many possible scenarios that could mean a lounge is unattended for a few minutes. In actual fact, it makes very little difference. That particular incident could have occurred while a staff member was in attendance. We have training on how to de-escalate these kinds of situations, especially with people with dementia, but I can tell you, it is damned difficult to step into an altercation, and it is also very scary. We had no male staff. Places like OCA most likely do, but smaller homes are generally staffed solely by women.
I am not making excuses for what happened here, and it may be that the staff member concerned, made an error of judgment. But she also may not have. The fact that she no longer works there means nothing - if that happened on my watch, I would not come back to work either. We do not know. But of course the media had to jump on it, sensationalise it as always, without any consideration for the realities of aged care. As long as the media focuses on the negative, and rarely bothers to report on the "good news" stories, the general public will always have a misguided and mis-informed opinion of aged care providers.
The fact that I am no longer working as a caregiver, but here I am still posting about aged care (and not from an investor point of view) shows just how passionate most caregivers are about the work they do. The expectation that we can prevent every incident, and if we don't, it is our fault, is completely unrealistic.