Looks like OG are going to get control at a bargain price-more than 20% fully paid and 50% partly paid shares acquired and 5 weeks to go!
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There is an interesting item in the Otago Daily Times about exploration in the Canterbury and Great South Basins.
It includes a map showing previously drilled exploration wells.
https://www.odt.co.nz/business/oil-g...s-data-release
Boop boop de do
Marilyn
thanks for the link
clearly a massive area of potential in a known petroleum system
Galleon flowed at 10 million cu ft/day and 2300 bbls condensate
Clipper also showed hydrocarbons but I have been unable to get any details
Looks like these where at the periphery of the canterbury basin
Brent oil price over the past month has been steadily climbing-around 10% in the past month.
I feel a revaluation of NZO would now be much higher and my attitude to this offer has changed more in line with digger.
I also feel OG will be struggling to get 50%-a change to how I felt last week.
Is the development of the canterbury basin going to be affected by the new coalition?
There are a lot of much needed potential jobs and revenue if it goes ahead so my feeling is it wont be stopped.
The 1 in 5 figure chance of success depends on the oil /gas price as we already know hydrocarbons are there and a lot more research has gone on since clipper.
I cannot help feeling we are selling a big asset and under valuation
I wish I knew
I doubt if Zeta will sell if it looks like the offer will be unsuccessful and the oil price keeps rising.
Dont you think they are unlikely to sell if its below fair value?
It must be below current value considering the fall of the nz$ and rise in oil.
They still have 4 weeks to make a decision
I dont know the rules but is it possible they could secretly negotiate to get a better price during this period?
Maybe, but the rise in oil one could argue is negative for NZO as they have a bucket of cash, have sold their oil assets Kupe and Tui. So they would be hoping for a fall in the price of oil to be able to get cheaper entry to new investments?
I have no idea what Zeta will do, but ultimately it looks like it will hinge on whether they go in or not.
Not too sure about negotiating a better price, I guess O&G can always up their price but it has to be to ALL shareholders, not just some. So if Zeta did negotiate we would also be the beneficiaries.
I agree it now looks as if the offer success hinges on Zeta.
I feel OG were motivated to make the offer to get the hydrocarbons off canterbury.
This could be a massive field and we know hydrocarbons are there.
They say the chance of success is higher than normal and tell us the chance of success is greater than normal-they estimate at 1 in 5 .
The higher the price of oil the higher the chance of the field being commercial.
A lower nz$ has already made the bid cheaper for them.
The answer to your question as to og hoping for a fall in the value of oil in my opinion is most unlikely.
Past experience tells us we should not trust all that we are told-particularly when it comes to money.
Zeta is in the game for money and they will want to get the highest value out of this deal which hinges on them.
We dont know how they are going to play their cards and I dont know all the rules of the game.
If they accept the deal many more may follow and then the shares bought may be scaled down leaving Zeta with a small useless parcel that might fall in value.
Its logical therefore that they will want some sort of deal that assures them that they can get maximum value out of this parcel.
How can they ensure this?
I do not buy into the arguement that if OG gets the holding they are after the SP will fall afterwards.It is certainly what OG is putting out but not what I am accepting. I got a phone call to that effect from the company and an offer to receive one from OG which I said no not bother as I will be making up my own mind and not following the company line on where value lies.
The canterbury hydrocarbons have been studied by the company now for more than a decade and i believe they now have as good an idea of the possible success as is possible to accumulate. This I feel is what OG is after. Sell and you might miss out on the drill of the century.
In the meantime if the SP does fall I will be buying more.