If my memory is right, it looks like it's pretty much the exact same size as the two off market transactions the other day combined.
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If my memory is right, it looks like it's pretty much the exact same size as the two off market transactions the other day combined.
My prediction after talking to a J & J executive - PEB will be taken over soon.
$1 will just about do it. for the first 50%.
5 - 10% is probably the worst prediction possible... (no offence intended)
A product like CX bladder will have a seemingly binary outcome, success or failure. You only have to look at other healthcare diagnostics/prognostics or even CX bladders penetration in the NZ Market to realise this.
Rough NZ numbers, obtained from DHB reach by population and a little bit of algebra!
Mid Central on board, (3.8% of NZ market ,400 tests, pop'n reach 166,000). Add Canterbury (11.6% of NZ market ,1210 tests, pop'n reach 502,000) and Waitemata (12.2% of NZ market ,1274 tests, pop'n reach 528,500) and you are up to 27.6% of the NZ market that PEB has established (Not bad penetration in 2-3 years). Canterbury and Waitemata not gauranteed but in my view highly probable.
I posted previosuly about the success of other diagnostics and prognostics and their ability to penetrate their products respective markets. Once again, a seemingly binary outcome, where you obtain high market penetration (circa 80%+) or failure (0%)
This is the game PEB are in and I like it.
If you are on top and have the best product you will win, until the day your IP gets surpassed... (however long that is I dont know but is a risk that must not be lost on everyone)
Anyway may it be onwards and upwards and lets hope for US success where I am expecting small USD figures to be flowing in through H1 FY15!
Disc: Holding A lot
Why? Please include your own analysis.
I thought we could show each other our respective analyses, or should we just say "YES" and "NO" and "MAYBE".
I completely accept that over 30-40% penetration maybe pie-in-the-sky dreaming which is not likely to eventuate. But please someone offer some backed up evidence to the contrary. Why only 5-10% Brighton? It appears to be the best test available.
I would prob start to try and fine tune your numbers a little...
Who are the current incumbents and what are their financials/market share/pricing structures/partnerships etc...aim is to understand the current market situation.
Who is PEB selling to. Are they distributors who supply the market/hospitals etc or are they going direct. Direct sales to clinics and hospitals will take decades. Selling to large distributors will potentially give market access but hurt margins.
I am skepitical a hospital/distributor/clinic etc will just dump a tried and tested product for an unknown kiwi product. However if the product is so revolutionary then this can possibly be ignored. Most of the health system in the US is slow and traditional and won't willingly buy from an unknown company.
Another piece of information I would be looking for is a "sales announcement" indicating they have secured a large distributor and/or the product is flying of the shelf and they can keep up. If I don't hear this quickly I would doubt the market potential of the product in the US.
Cross reference this with PEB sales forecasts then combine the two to get a more accurate investment picture.
It's nice to see a bit of cxbladder discussion on the US bladder cancer blog sites, this one has a fair question to ask;
http://www.inspire.com/groups/bladde...tream-already/
They have indeed. I came across the below image last night from the 2011 capital raising. Shows how they get to $100m in 5 years.
Also gives us something definitive by which to compare how the company thinks they will go with how they actually go. We know sales started 1st of July, so for the 1st of July 2014 we want to see 9,128 tests sold for the company to be 'on track' for their $100m in 5 years.
Agree that this year's end of year reporting won't give us any real indication as to how they are going, as sales momentum takes a bit to build up.
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