If you are remotely serious, then this isn't investing as I know it.
Sheesh, why don't they just have a conference on the moon? Imagine what that would do.
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Nope, no XRO shares here.
I like a lot of what they're doing, and am not down on the company - just the valuation.
Frankly, it is the sort of company I would buy at a price in theory, but it has never been close to a buy for me.
Remember, they only had a million or two of cash left in the kitty when Winkler bought in - this has been a high valuation, high risk ride all the way. It could easily have gone broke in other hands - management really has done it well.
I sort of accept missing out on XRO as a function of my personality. In hindsight, great money has been made here, but, we all have to invest to our style, in the moment.
At every moment, it hasn't met my investment criteria - frankly, most of the rationale from day one has been faith, and that is fine if faith is your thing, and it has definitely been rewarded. Maybe the faith is not misplaced in this case?
For me, I know if I'd have faith in this one, I'd have to offset my profits with the ostrich farms, finance companies, tax based forestry schemes, loss making mining companies and ex wives that I'd also had faith in.
I guess faith just isn't my thing!
Thanks Stranger, I thought I was alone! My post from another thread ...
"Xero certainly appears to be growing everything on an exponential basis: customers, revenue, cash in the bank & its annual losses ....ummmmm something is not conducive with the other!! Thank goodness it has shareholders with deep pockets."
This is certainly not "investing" ...it is tantamount to "gambling" in my humble view.
Most of the shares are/were held by a select few ...who only released them to carefully selected recipients who had very deep pockets. The daily volume for ages was below 50k because the balance were being held by the selected few.
Can't wait to see the profitability figures once they hit the 1m customer.
(Now I'm off to keep my head below the parapet......)
I noticed growth rates had slowed. We should watch with interest to see if it was just a pause before another spurt. Not sure what the tipping point for accounting software is but a 20% market share of Intuit's is very large business for Xero with further potential for international expansion. Saas can be a great model for market deployment if done correctly.
Of particular interest is the chance of a takeover or merger.
If everything goes Xero's way we could be looking at a very large NZ business.
Slightly. But if they pull the US off, and we should see within the year now that they have started ramping up over there, then it should take off again, and get another boost in the US when they add payroll.
NZ and Aust, growth will naturally slow but UK has been a bit disappointing though they have shifted their focus to the US.
What they need is that key break in the US market.
It could be a "tipping point" event that puts Xero in the customers minds and then its a foot race between the two options.
Not sure how to do it in such a large market. Maybe state by state.
From what I read it is an accounting distribution model. I guess it is getting enough accountants to switch over.
Having Theil pulling the strings in the background is very important.
Hi guys - is it likely that Xero will do a 2 for 1 share split given the price per share is so high? Maybe this question has been asked before?
Thanks CJ - I had forgotten about the issue of NASDAQ; I bought my initial 18,000 Xero shares some years back at an average price of $1.46. Am facing redundancy in two months time, so they are an important part of my nest egg. I had hoped to make my fortune with either BLT, RAK or SNK ... but enough said!!