Yup, should've hold onto my parcel... dammit
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Yup, should've hold onto my parcel... dammit
Let's not forget that health professionals will gravitate toward superior medical solutions that ultimately improve a patient’s health. There is also the power of patient demand, and word of mouth that we must not underestimate.
Price point is important and health professionals will pay a premium for a product like cxbladder that ultimately both better benefits the patient and also reduces overall work up costs.
This link provides an example in application, it independently compares cxbladder to the existing market competition NMP22. Alere the maker of NMP22 claim was that NMP22 was the only FDA approved non lab diagnostic test kit.
http://bladdercancerfight.blogspot.c...omparison.html
Yeah that's them:
Innovation in Health and Science
Sponsored by Ko Awatea CMDHB
Bodystance Ltd - Backpod™
Footfalls and Heartbeats Ltd (FHL) - Footfalls and Heartbeats
Pacific Edge - Cxbladder; A novel bladder cancer detection test
Texus Fibre Ltd Helix Non - Woven Natural Composite Materials
University of Otago - X-imm24
Attachment 4811
Attachment 4812
This is the very basic modelling I have done at the moment for PEB. There are just way too many unknowns for further analysis as far as I am concerned, but it does go to show you that if they are successful, they should be very successful!
Note that the market sizes are estimates based on comparative population sizes. The only market size we really know about is the US at around 2 million, the rest are extrapolated, but assume the US is unhealthier by 25% and therefore the rest are smaller even after considering population size.
Ignore the blue column, this was part of another analysis.
This does not take into account growth, year on year etc, it simply is a model which has % market penetration. I have assumed a lesser amount in NZD for the tests than they may actually be sold for and assume the penetration in each market to be the same (obviously it won't be in reality but you get the idea).
Those figures look fine blobbles and are in rough alignment with PEB’s own provision of market penetration gross profit estimates.
We must be cautious in anticipating too much at HY14 reporting. PEB commenced sales within the US on 1st July 2013, thus there are 3 months of sales accumulation to the end of the reporting period on 30th September 2013.
The five US sales staff are both new to the company and the technology, and during this 3 month period we should regard them as being in training. Customer relationships will also just be starting to be identified and formed.
Based on nothing more than PEB’s achievements in the NZ and Australia market to date, a HY14 sales figure of just a couple of hundred tests would be an exceptional result in my opinion. Although we should expect the ramp up to start in earnest in the second half year to FY14.
My FA of the forward revenue stream to $100M provides me with an understanding that PEB may well be a $5 stock in FY16, however, it will not be a straight line, a ramp up is required.
I agree that it is more difficult to estimate early revenues without better guidance from PEB. My efforts in tracking and following PEB over the last 12 months, and anticipating sales from the information we do have, provide me with a FY14 valuation of $1.25.
Seems like our seller has left the building..
I see from your posts that you suggest a Gross Profit of 50% and I believe you use those figures directly to determine EPS. I have a vague memory that the projected Gross Profit for PEB is actually higher.
Gross profit is generally based on the direct cost (manufacture) of sales but will definitely exclude a number of possibly significant items: Income Tax, Interest, Depreciation of Assets etc and may include much more.
I believe your EPS figures would be a lot more realistic if you work on a 20-25% profit/revenue margin in a few years time.
I seem to recall a comment from PEB that it would be two years (FY 2015?) before they had a positive cash flow.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
It was a block crossing Moosie, not part of the auction. These are usually just shifting across nominee companys or such like.
ST is giving away flags in SF at the moment, and there was a distinct lack of selling pressure today, as predicted on this channel yesterday.
whether what his 'broker' is saying is true or not, time will tell, but for now I am very happy being long