I'm taking the piss with my last post mate.
I already said I agree that fundamentals appear to have little relevance ATM.
But i don't subscribe to oil being the sole driver.
Like I said on the previous page, I think it's much wider than oil and based on whichever theory is making the biggest "noise" at the time. I listed a few of them that have at various times been assigned as "causing and/or contributing" to market volatility.
Take Greece. their situation is worse now with thousands of refugees, but I can't remember any recent comment on this causing the current market jitters. Last year Greece was going to exit the EU, which was then potentially going to fall apart
How about Japan. 3 arrows seems to have failed to stoke demand so they are also worse now with more government debt. Again, no association with current market volatility
US rate rises in 2016 aren't being associated with volatility anymore either, we had 6 months of will she - won't she jitters last year. We still don't know if she will raise rates next month or not, but this is apparently no longer the driver of market volatility
China's recent data releases have been as "poor" as previous releases, but again the association with calamitous market falls worldwide are no longer being drawn
Russia's deteriorating economic troubles (rampant inflation) isn't the cause either
Oil is just the latest association that "professionals" are drawing when they try and explain what is causing the volatility - it seems to align, sort of. And a feedback loop is created as other people listen to the latest theories as being solid fact, and then react to them
Kind of like looking at the death rate of doctors. Finding the data shows that all doctors die. Then saying "being a doctor is the cause of death". Sounds fine until you sense-check and realise the hypothesis is flawed
Why is oil suddenly the cause of market volatility? Cheap oil has always been a precursor to rapid world growth. I don't think it will be any different this time around. Oil is used everywhere, everywhere. If most things become cheaper to make because the raw material(s) and/or transport costs are lower, prices don't need to rise, may even fall, and more units will sell = growth almost everywhere. I definitely spend less at the pump, so I can use that "not spent" money elsewhere in a discretionary way. A sale for another company that wouldn't have happened if I spent the money at the pump. That's my sense-check
I believe the market is volatile because we are in a world where "professionals" economic models don't work properly, so uncertainty of outcome rises, leading to some occasional unexpected outcomes = volatility
But I definitely don't underestimate the danger of volatility. My portfolio is skewed towards companies with tangible hard assets, captive markets, well capitalised, solid earnings, long tenure, with good dividend yield in case the SP does temporarily dive in sympathy with offshore market gyrations