Originally Posted by
Fortunecookie
I have read his earlier stuff as well and follow his posts on twitter. It is difficult to say what his post GFC performance has been like. The only thing I can find is on Datarama. But only that is a best guess what his entry price is and it is only his US holdings. I have to say I am more interested in the rationale in his pick of stocks. On occasion I will try to assess the company he's picked.
I think he has been right in alot of cases but never exactly right on the timing. More recent examples are his Tesla and Cathy Woods shorts.
I do see merit in the principle in that as humans we display repetitive behaviour. In terms of the impact of computers on TA. l can't really say because I have no knowledge in this space. In saying this I read the book, the front office. Which is a great read about the world of hedge funds. I vaguely recall that the impact of TA now is very different to a decade or two ago. That is quite possibly due to the use of computers. I guess how quickly do those opportunities close up.
I can only speculate that hedge funds have yet to setup shop on the NZX. Based on observation there is certainly less volatility when comparing the movements of some individuals shares on NZX to the likes of US.
I couldn't agree with you more. My interest is aligned with value investing. I think it suits me in alot of ways. I think in some areas we have an edge over institutions i.e level of capital deployed, time horizon, investing mandates just to name a few. There's the relationship that institutions have with the clients. In a paradoxical way that can limit the returns that can be achieved. Fortunately we don't have to deal with that.
Personally I try to look at things where is considered unpopular. Potentially buy at a 25% to 30% discount depending on the company and the likelihood. You are right low P/E and PB shouldn't be the only reasons. Payback period is important too.