Talked to a contact a few minutes ago - he flew from ChCh to Auckland yesterday for one of his bi-weekly trips.
"Flight is normally full but this flight was half empty, and conspicuously absent were Asian passengers."
Starting to happen?
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Talked to a contact a few minutes ago - he flew from ChCh to Auckland yesterday for one of his bi-weekly trips.
"Flight is normally full but this flight was half empty, and conspicuously absent were Asian passengers."
Starting to happen?
I think so. I don't care what anyone else thinks but I would not get on an aircraft or a cruise ship for ANY reason at present regardless of whether I had paid for the trip already in full or not. I noted the pilots of the aircraft evacuating Americans out of China on that special charter flight were fully kitted out with full hazmat suit, goggles and facemask. Look how the ground crew are kitted out too. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/29/flig...-cdc-says.html
My view is this virus will significantly affect AIR.
Couldn't agree more but unfortunately don't have the option of not travelling and am boarding a long haul flight on Monday. Going to South America so not directly into the storm but it will be interesting to see if I notice any notable reduction in passengers on this route that I travel often.
Best wishes mate. Try and get yourself a high quality face mask or two and wash your hands frequently.
And there you have it, some people can postpone flights others can't but a few weeks from now will fly as life moves on. Probably lockdown will lift in 10-15 days after incubation periods over and life returns to normal. Seen on net recently 50K people die from the flu yearly how does that compare to coronavirus ?
We will find out the answer in a few weeks time I suppose.
Has anybody used ASK OSCAR a question on chat thing on their website?
phew no need to worry air nz have a cure for coronavirus
Aircraft have very sophisticated cabin air conditioning systems that filter out organisms such as viruses from the air that is recirculated through the cabin," he said.
Cleaning agents used at the end of a flight were effective against viruses such as the coronavirus.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12304495
thats a relief they just need to let WHO know there cleaning agents kill the virus lol
Crude oil is so low...but flights are all canceled....airport will be impacted...as well as AIR, ..hotels... tourism... hospitality. mainfreight n freighway will be the winner of low oil... especially the petrol price will go down as the government cracking it down
https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/natio...cid=spartandhp
Volunteers are very brave souls. I hope that plane is thoroughly decontaminated upon return before being put back into regular service.
I wouldn't fly anywhere at present, not even domestically. Surely I am not the only person that's risk averse and there will be a material decline in travel right throughout AIR's network. That's how I see it anyway...
I'm not flying and will just accept the hit on a trip to Sydney mid-Feb with family for a concert. Everything does suggest this is a serious virus from the outset and nothing has mitigated that to date.
Noticed on a domestic flight in December coffee dripping off the tray table, I think cost cutting has result in a cut back on cleaning between flights.
With all due respect ... but I think your reaction is a bit over the top.
Based on all we know is this nothing worse than one of the not so pleasant flu strains, and there are most years some new strains (without a vaccine for the new strain) around without people stopping to use planes. And yes - people do die from the flu ... depending on how you count (most flu victims do have preconditions) between 56,000 and 500,000 per year.
Compare that to the 170 or so people who died so far from the Wuhan virus (and yes, most of them had as well preexisting conditions and have been old and weak).
Of course - everybody is absolutely in their right to decide whether they want to board a plane or not ... but I don't think there is a need to repeat in various threads posts describing an in my view quite irrational fear. This clearly won't help anybody (well, maybe the shorters).
Expect though that AIR might go down a bit - and the bottom will be as well a function of peoples hyped up fears.
While interested in picking up some cheap AIR shares at the bottom of this cycle, it wouldn't feel right to hype up the fear just to pick up the shares a bit cheaper ...
AIR reducing flights to Shanghai from 7 to 4 weekly.
Broad spectrum of opinion on how serious this gets BP. I share Raz's concern that cleaning is not as good as it used to be. The Beagle clan don't need to travel for any reason so for us its just a simple choice of delaying any travel plans. Just highlighting that air travel does involve very close confinement with a lot of other passengers where you all share each others recirculated exhaled air. How often do they change the aircraft's recirculation air filters and will they filter out the coronavirus ?
How many people have you talked to who after a long haul flight come down with some new flu ? (I hear this talked about frequently). Spending long hours inside an aircraft confined with potentially hundreds of other passengers is a very unhealthy environment in normal times. These are anything but normal times...just saying...
I am surprised the shares are not < $2.50 and surprised AIR hasn't cancelled direct flights to China already.
American Airline pilots just sued American Airline, they want to stop flying to China :)
https://us.cnn.com/2020/01/30/busine...rus/index.html
Suppose all those pilots are just needlessly scaremongering too :rolleyes: Greg Foran who officially starts on Monday next week needs to immediately stamp his authority on the business and cease ALL flights to China effective immediately, in the interests of all airnewzealanders and all New Zealanders, in my opinion.
Maybe AIR should shut down all flights including Australia as flights have plenty of "at risk people" on-board who spent a few days in NZ and lets not worry about kiwis trapped in China or elsewhere that need to get home for work. She will be right.............. I'm OK.
Now you're just being deliberately obtuse. Its about mitigating clear and present danger to flight crews and passagers. Hopefully Greg Foran has a good handle on this and will act decisively.
From what I hear,Greg has been spending a lot of time meeting the troops,who he has impressed already..
LIFE GOES ON but AGREE take all precautions "WITHIN REASON"
Even if half the world is destroyed the other half remaining need to survive.
I will pick on one point, you are simply working from incorrect information, as at today, the medical evidence is the virus infection rates and mortality rate is much higher than common flu strains. Naturally there is a lot of uncertainity and they will have more clarity in the coming weeks.
However no one informed on what is current information can conclude what you suggest.
If tourism and air travel badly affected maybe the government will support industries affected.
After all they seem to support others who reckon they are hurting ...like lobster people who can’t send product to China.
I am more interested in why our govt does not subscribe to a service like this that alerted users ; I believe pre Christmas
https://bluedot.global/
Similarly this guy called it days ago - well worth a watch
https://www.youtube.com/watch?reload...UxTmJsVHw6kwiU
Delta, American and United suspending all China flights
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/31/coro...ing-feb-6.html
According to CNBC a little while ago 31 airlines have now cancelled or curtailed direct flights to China.
AIR needs to do the right and decent thing for its staff and all New Zealanders and cancel all further direct flights to China with effect immediately. Not fearmongering, just good common sense risk management.
agree , its just inviting trouble. better safe than sorry
Poland’s national airline, LOT Polish Airlines, has suspended flights to China until Feb. 9, a deputy prime minister said on Twitter. More than a dozen people suspected of having the coronavirus are hospitalized in Poland, and over 500 people are being monitored by health services.
Iran has suspended all flights to China because of the coronavirus outbreak, according to Reuters. Iran’s semiofficial Tasnim news agency reported on Friday that all flights from China to the Islamic Republic have also been banned.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/31/w...rus-china.html
Imagine the headline -
New Zealand has 3,175 cases and 19 deaths due to the coronavirus breakout.
Guess what will happen?
Princess Cindy so busy dreaming up how to spend money on roads she's fallen asleep at the wheel.
looks like countries are starting to close there borders to all chinese russia has , US this morning now singapore
just in
Singapore closes borders to all Chinese travellers to stem spread of coronavirus
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/healt...ravellers-stem
nz might have to soon
Horse bolted - quickly shut the stable door. LOL.
Not understanding, though why anybody infected would be in your view no problem if they come through one of the transit airports? If you really want to compete with bull, than you need to do it properly: Close all ports and airports. Anybody coming from anywhere could be infected.
Ah yes, and don't forget to stop any movement in good old little NZ. We know about some potentially infected people in NZ, and there no doubt will be more to come. Close all airports and ports and make sure nobody is allowed to leave their home for the next 2 weeks.
Ah yes - and be very afraid - lots of hype, fear mongering and idiotic advise on the internet ...
Surprised as well that people who claim to be faithful are spreading this nonsense. Just remind me - what did Jesus do with sick people? Lock them out and let them die? I read a different version of the bible where he helped them, but on reflection this all must have been fake news ...
This actually happened in 2009 with the H1N1 flu pandemic which originated from North America.
Life continued despite the fact that over 60m Americans were infected, carried the H1N1 flu all over the world for over 1 year which subsequently killed several hundred thousands globally.
I think governments are rightly concerned and the ones taking strong steps to contain the spread like Singapore, HK & Mongolia are doing the prudent thing.
There's too much scare-mongering going on however and that's feeding the sense of panic out there amongst those who are not well read - let's not encourage that BS.
Well, we finally got the answer to Balance's question! I knew you were busting to tell us!!
:ohmy:
Compare & Contrast - China imo has moved decisively to contain the spread of the virus compared to the US doing NOTHING remotely as decisive in 2009.
The economic cost of containment for China is going to be huge but the Chinese are prepared to do it.
Why weren't the US prepared to do the same in 2009? Says a lot, doesn't it about which government is actually more responsible.
Yet the media & the scare mongering mob will have you believe that the world is coming to an end and everyone is going to get infected and die - because the Chinese have allowed the virus to run riot!
The truth is actually the exact opposite - the US was the one which allowed the H1N1 flu to go riot and killed hundreds of thousands of people around the world, including NZ.
Some posters here are going to hate the truth - hard potatoes.
Air NZ suspends daily flights to Shanghai in wake of coronavirus
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/a...ectid=12305195
And Customs have suspended Smartgate processing for arrivals until further notice - all incoming passengers will be manually processed.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/a...ectid=12305377
im surprised air and aia have not fallen a lot more considering the impact on there profits next half yr report
I would think a lot of discretionary air travel will go on the backburner and not just from the Chinese. Frankly, flying long haul is not looking like a very attractive proposition at the moment. A share price < $2.50 in the near term is highly likely in my opinion.
your dead right and heres how your affected
A Chinese man with coronavirus shared a flight from Melbourne to the Gold Coast with 171 others when he was sick, and four fellow travellers have already fallen ill.
https://au.news.yahoo.com/up-to-200-...065733445.html
I see the Australians have made a travel advisory to their citizens not to travel internationally. Interesting trend, so that will invalidate for certain any travel insurance they hold on this issue. Chances are if you get caught up you will be paying quarantine or health care yourself and if you don't appreciate that you may well appreciate how much of your trip could end up in quarantine in any any jurisdiction you travel, especially in countries that now have random checks at airports.
Sitting at AIA. Interesting to see about 1/3 of people wearing masks and many glasses as well.
But the suspension doesn't begin until the 9th of February, i.e. after service has been completed for the busiest time of the year (lunar new year/Chinese spring festival).
That is also when some airlines have tentatively planned to lift their suspensions that are already in place! Many airlines announced suspensions last week with immediate effect, and planned to initially suspend service for least one week. FinnAir is an exception in that they have taken the same approach as AirNZ, not beginning their suspension until Feb 6th when most of their ticket holders have returned.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-c...-idUSKBN1ZT1RZ
Good point. It is a wonder this Government didn't do a buyback of all sharp Chinese cooking utensils when the virus went deadly.
I wonder if the move to bigger planes like the new 777x might not be such a good idea if the travelling public gets jumpy about diseases. Might be better to fly with fewer and reduce the Russian roulette risk of catching something from a fellow passenger.
Except they haven't:
https://www.smartraveller.gov.au/new...virus-outbreak
I think you may be right.
Bull posted on another thread the infection rate is much higher, about 75,000.
If that's true, 425 people have died so that's only a mortality rate of .56% which is just like a bad flu season.
And according to some reports 80% are over 60 years, and 75% had pre existing conditions.
It's certainly to be taken seriously, but not panic hysteria level serious.
We don't stop people travelling from the Northern hemisphere in their flu season.
OMG Lets hope this nasty virus does not enter into any rest home villages as could decimate the residents. Would probably affect property prices more then the next interest rate rise. Imagine NZ economy could collapse as we rely on China and AUS to do well but the fear of this virus may completely shut our borders which everyone would understand as the right thing to do eh!! ......... Wonder if the current $1.49 Gallon jet fuel price would assist AIR's profitability compensating in a small way.
Just adding to the scaremongering business as looks like the DOW is moving on with 400 plus increase overnight.
All US carriers have announced they are stopping flights to HK sighting lack of demand. Big and profitable market for Air NZ, much more so than Shanghai.
https://www.scmp.com/news/world/unit...us-flights-and
But you still have to keep in mind the RR engines issue still not behind AIR. Last week two RR engines meant to ship to Auckland for AIR via Qatar, however, both failed the test, and the retrofitting problem has been delayed. In addition, currently the route is operated by a wet-lease agreement between AIR and CX. And that lease cost is much much more than the previous wet-lease with SQ.
The first announcement by AIR regarding the RR engine issue mentioned that they hoped to have the issue resolved by about April-May 2018, (issue first arose in late 2017 if I remember correctly).
WOW....talk about a problem dragging on !
Agreed the engine issues ironically will act as a buffer as will the drop in the oil price and NZD.
Lack of demand is not a good sign though. Any airline is highly vunerable to a drop in demand as they have high fixed costs and slim profit margins. Even currency and fuel costs are hedged to the high side. Air NZ used to be king at right sizing capacity to demand but they have been a bit slow under Luxon. Lots of costs you can't cut quickly too - staff, planes etc
The drop in demand could come from multiple angles.
* No Chinese tourists or students for a while obviously.
* General avoidance of flying and especially of long distance flights.
* Less tourists in Aus and NZ so less trans tasman passengers
* All combining to reduce the load factor on domestic routes
Disclosure: I sold down 2/3 of my stake, first time I've sold since I first bought in at $1.08 in 2008. Been a good trip, 37% return per year according to sharesight.
Drop off in demand could make the special jet setters happy
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/ind...y-heavy-demand
Aircraft where people sit jam packed together like sardines and breathe each others air for hours on end are the "perfect" breeding ground for this new virus. Don't be shocked when AIR finally come out and admit this is having a profound effect on their entire network.
I would think its quite likely that AIR will cancel its Hong Kong flights in the very near future or dramatically scale them back as what's the point of flying with near empty aircraft ?
I think AIR is a "SELL" at the current price in this environment. If I was into shorting stocks, (I'm not), of all the stocks on the NZX I would choose this and THL.
AIR took a jump yesterday on ASX and currently up 9.5c today wonder if GS transportation earnings report had anything to do with jump............
$2.85 today...you'd want your head looked at paying that. Fabulous shorting opportunity as partial insurance against the rest of one's portfolio.
One more drama for AIR to endure. Massive landing fees paid and they get this... https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12306688
Seems that perhaps AIA have been investing in all the other 'stuff' for a better "customer experience" while all the time their main asset i.e. the runaway, is neglected, won't help any any airline AirNZ included - do AIA compensate them when they close the runway and aircrat have to divert??
Discl: holding neither at present
The "standard" of the domestic terminal is also a disgrace.
"One of New Zealand's biggest travel agencies says coronavirus FEARS have resulted in FEW CANCELLATIONS from clients, although consultants have been busy rebooking new flights for others who had been flying through China." ............ $2.50 if you want to read more NZ Herald
Seems not everyone fears flying
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/07/coro...oll-rises.html Wonder how many will cancel cruises this year ? which will have a roll on effect on the air travel involved.
We were all set to go on our first ever cruise in Sept this year...just as well it was a P&O Oh Buoy $1 initial deposit sale at Christmas. Its looking very unlikely we'll be paying the 25% deposit due next month. https://www.pocruises.com.au/campaigns/oh-buoy-sale
For anyone interested, their marketing, print and T.V. shows a slim young lady encouraging Kiwi's to get into lots of New Zealand natural ice-cream...the only thing is that its clearly implied that this is included in the cruise price but it isn't. The Ice-cream parlor on board is not one of the included dining facilities in the cruise but an optional extra. I'll leave you to judge for yourself if you think this is disingenuous marketing or not. I think its pretty "sharp practice" especially using large imagery that's highly appealing to a hungry dog that likes that ice-cream. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5B6BE0qFTA
Easy enough to reschedule a cruise for when it is safe and will probably be at a better price. Not prepared to bet money, (aka pay a sizeable deposit next month) in the hope it will be all over by Sept, although I do hope it is !
True, though don't forget that the infection risk in the winter hemisphere (skiing) is probably higher than in the summer hemisphere (cruise ship). I think I'd take the summer, agree however with beagle that he will get probably better prized cruises closer to the time.
Wondering however when the first specials for Queenstown come out ... always wondering whether the place is worth a visit .. and might be actually nice with lesser tourist around?
If people have not paid and can reschedule then they may well defer, if they can, still people do have limited opportunities in busy lives...wife wants to change Europe trip to September...worst part of that is that is my time in Queenstown every year, like couta I think it is perfect time to be there. If people have paid and committed they will try to find any reason to feel it is okay to go...
Deleted post and put it on the correct thread
Something positive - I think :confused:
Amazing: Air New Zealand’s Singing Flight Attendant Wins Praise (click me)
Thanks for the trade idea Beagle
i got a cheeky little short in @$2.835 Stop just over $3, with target $2.55
let’s see how it goes
You're welcome. I think your chances of getting stopped out are extremely slim lol
Anecdotally talking with a few mates yesterday, none would choose to get on a long haul flight at present no matter what the destination.
People are risk averse, and worried about the unknown.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/ind...us-on#comments
A good start however they need to hear more than the business class offering is not competitive anymore and given most in this group do not pick up the tab themselves (their organisation is) the value proposition is often not viewed clearly in this group.
Please tell them to stop wasting money on fancy safety video's filmed in exotic locations, like the money spent on filming in Antarctica which must have been quite considerable and was very insensitive considering what happened there.
I think history will show Luxon wasn’t all that great at Air NZ
Might have achieved record profits early on but that was more luck with fuel prices than good management.....and most of the increased profits fell away and his final year wasn’t that much better than his first year.
I get the impression he just let things drift along