Generation Station Utilisation: FY2016
The following information I have taken from FY2016. I have chosen this as a representative year because:
1/ It is the first year in which the closure of Otahuhu was expected, so is more likely indicative of future station use patterns than previous years.
2/ The hydrological conditions appear more 'normal' than FY2017.
Contact Energy Hydro |
Station Generation Capacity |
Annual Energy Generation Capacity (B) |
Actual Energy Generated (A) |
Station Utilization (A)/(B) |
Clyde |
464MW |
4234GWh |
2289GWh |
54.1% |
Roxburgh |
320MW |
2920GWh |
1802GWh |
61.7% |
Total |
|
|
4091GWh |
Contact Energy Geothermal |
Station Generation Capacity |
Annual Energy Generation Capacity (B) |
Actual Energy Generated (A) |
Station Utilization (A)/(B) |
Notes |
Ohaaki |
48MW |
438GWh |
337GWh |
76.9% |
Te Huaka |
28MW |
256GWh |
196GWh |
76.7% |
Completed FY2010 |
Wairakei |
145MW |
1323Wh |
1075GWh |
81.3% |
Poihipi |
65MW |
593GWh |
407GWh |
68.6% |
Te Mihi |
166MW |
1515GWh |
1282GWh |
84.6% |
Completed FY2014 |
Total |
|
|
3297GWh |
Contact Energy Fossil Fuel |
Station Generation Capacity |
Annual Energy Generation Capacity (B) |
Actual Energy Generated (A) |
Station Utilization (A)/(B) |
Stratford Peaker Gas Turbine |
210MW |
1916GWh |
506GWh |
26.4% |
Stratford Combined Cycle |
377MW |
3440GWh |
334GWh |
9.7% |
Te Rapa Gas Turbine |
44MW |
402GWh |
221GWh |
55.0% |
Total |
|
|
1061GWh |
Thus we have a representative grand total generation figure of:
3297GWh + 1061GWh + 4091GWh = 8449GWh
SNOOPY
CEN valuation FY2017 adjusted for 'thin air capital'
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Snoopy
Thus we have a representative grand total generation figure of:
3297GWh + 1061GWh + 4091GWh = 8449GWh
The budget for constructing Te Mihi (166MW) back in FY2013 was $623m (refer to my post 617).
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Snoopy
Using the scaling factor I derived in post 1514, we can now work out the 'thin air capital' that should now be 'off the books' at Contact Energy:
$494m x 0.74 = $366m
If we assume 45% gearing then Contact could borrow 0.45 x $366m = $165m against that sum.
This means the the money available to construct a new power station, using Contact's off balance sheet funds, is:
$165m + $366m = $531m
It doesn't look like Contact have accumulated enough thin air capital to construct another Te Mihi. But I reckon there might be enough in the kitty to build a 100MW geothermal station. Assuming that station had a utilisation rate of 85%, by how much would the power generating capacity of Contact Energy increase?
Energy Generated by New Station Over one year:
(100MW x 0.85) x 25 x 365 x (1/1000) = 776GWh
776GWh / 8449GWh = 9.2%
So this is the multiplication factor we need to increase the value of CEN shares by if we are to include in that the earnings value of the new station that 'could be built', without recourse to raising new capital from shareholders.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Snoopy
My normalised 'eps' figure for Contact Energy is a whole of business cycle figure. I have deemed FY2009 as the start of the representative electricity market from here on in.
Financial Year |
CEN Normalised eps |
2009 |
27.0cps |
2010 |
25.3cps |
2011 |
22.4cps |
2012 |
24.6cps |
2013 |
27.5cps |
2014 |
27.1cps |
2015 |
22.0cps |
2016 |
22.2cps |
2017 |
18.7cps |
Multi Year Average |
24.1cps |
CEN Business Cycle share Price Average Value:
= 24.1c / ( 0.72 x 0.06) = $5.58 (based on a 6% gross desired earnings yield before tax). This is the 'fair value' as published in the adjacent table.
Note the above normalised earning valuation of the previous post does not make any allowance for off balance sheet 'thin air capital' that has been accumulated by Contact Energy. Making this adjustment I get a fair value for Contact Energy of:
$5.58 x 1.092 = $6.09
Given that Contact is trading well below that figure, it looks like an 'accumulate' at current market prices. Yet, ever the bargain hunter, I would be on the look out for 20% discount to fair value. That equates to $4.87. I say Contact would be a 'strong buy' should the current market volatility see the share price drop to that level.
SNOOPY