I entered about an hour before the news. Typical me push buy button too soon:mellow:. Never mind, might join you and buy more on any dips.
Printable View
"Most investors wouldn't even know if those criteria were being met. Whereas just a couple of good news stories in the Aussie media about sales in the UK, US, China or Australia or a new scientific finding could be enough to lift the SP. And once the Aussie listing goes into effect, I would have thought the market there might develop a self-generating dynamic that's not reliant on such specific analytical details but driven more by broader investor/broker perceptions and sentiment. Not to mention perhaps some news from the company itself."
Thanks for your reply NT but we are talking about what will make the SP rise.
There will not be any good news stories unless there is good news, and that will come about if some if not all the criteria I listed come about. The more that come about the higher the SP will go.
The fact that most investors wouldn't know about whether the criteria was being met is irrelevant really, they will if and when it happens
Harrie, short term the market will swing about all over the place, in this case it’s due predominantly to the AMP overhang and their new portfolio policy requiring them to just sell at any price.
Over the long term the SP will always gravitate back toward valuation, it requires no other reason to do so.
Do remember Ben Graham;
“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine”
Analyst price targets are very much to the up side, valuations will be higher than those again. As I understand Craig’s recently increased their price target to 92c. First NZ have recently offered a spot valuation of up to $1.24.
AMP will be working in the background with their broker right now, the Australian funds and insto’s will be running their valuation models right now, and the overhang should dissipate concurrently with the listing.
It is an IPO in any other name with AMP very probably about to release up to 20M shares onto the ASX.
Watch what happens to a very tightly held, presently very undervalued, and low liquidity stock when such an overhang ceases, and there are suddenly not one but two markets to facilitate a move.
Not to mention enthusiastic Australian retail investors buying shares in their favourite product.
Patience is a virtue, just relax, sit back, pour yourself a nice glass of a2, and watch.
Yep, agree with that Ratkin, even Craig's told us such also last year when they first initiated coverage at 90c.
Growth companies are harder to value than cyclical's generally though are they not. It is difficult too with ATM having so many new products in so many new markets.
Management though have offered a long term numerical goal ($230M FY16 revenues) to focus the investment and marketing machine that ATM has become.
They tell us they are on track, and despite an adjustment for long run exchange rates, three years into the four year strategic plan their revenue growth curve is on track too.
When I value that FY16 goal as being achievable, I've no problem establishing a relatively conservative valuation of FY15 $1.10.
Although at the end of the day it is just another growth company, sensitivity analysis is important too for that reason alone.
the market is saying it does not agree with these broker or analyst valuations - anyway at this rate we may be hitting under 50c by eom
The point I was making Harrie was that there can be things other than the specific six items on your list that could give the SP a boost. Such as improved sales/profits in Australia. Or a favourable recommendation by Aussie brokers/analysts, which could be based on prospects rather than actual achievements.
I agree that "good news" is important, but not that it has to involve the six specific items on your list. I note you have now softened that assertion a bit.
Not looking for a big dispute here, but I think that once the dual listing takes place, the SP will be dictated largely in the Australian market, and will be determined not so much by precise statistical measures of current company performance as by broader consumer and investor perceptions of the company's future. And investors won't wait a year or two to see whether the six targets on your list are achieved. They'll respond to shorter term news and commentary. [/QUOTE]
Can anybody tell me the a date for ASX listing ?
I don't think a2mc or Goldman Sachs have yet advised an exact date, perhaps they are awaiting a 'good to go' signal from AMP. It should appear here when they are all ready to go.
http://www.asx.com.au/prices/upcoming.htm
I notice the ASX has a list for A2M, just no data yet.
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/company.do#!/A2M
[/QUOTE]
We are probably talking about the same thing here NT.
A2mc probably have more prospects than you can point a finger at. The market has discounted that already into the price. Its the price that after weighing up the risk of the prospects being fulfilled, or not, that the market is prepared to pay. The longer the prospects take to come to fruition the longer the SP will drift. The trigger to make the SP go higher is some of the criteria I outlined above coming to fruition, because as the probability of success becomes more apparent it starts to whittle away the probability of performance objectives not being met. Improving perceptions = less risk = improving SP.
Talking about perceptions, why would Chinese bureaucrats at the border not want to ban imports of formula into China from NZ even if there was only an infinitesimal chance of 1080 mixed in? why risk your job. What do they know about NZ food safety mechanisms anyhow? If in doubt stay out? I think this one could really blow up. International trust in NZ food safety is diminishing big time. One of the big growing markets for a2mc is exporting baby formula to China. If this goes tits up as a result of the 1080 scare its one of the drivers of growth which is under threat = more uncertainty = declining SP. I hope I am wrong!
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/6725...tortion-threat
sales slumping so they say
Yawn, … no impact to ATM much at all really,
HY15 China segment revenues: $1.0M
HY15 Total ATM revenues: $74.8
Not all China segment revenues are NZ produced and exported infant formula, it also includes Australian fresh milk exports and Australian UHT exports to China.
Assuming $750k revenues is for NZ infant formula export, then any potential exposure from a prospective 1080 nutbar represents only around 1% of all company revenues.
Practically very little risk of disruption to ATM’s overall business.
On that one, Harrie, I think we should take some reassurance from the way a2MC is now turning itself into a multi-product international company rather than just a NZ one or just an infant formula one. It's exporting a lot of product into China now from Australia, and that will expand. Even the company that processes infant formula for it here (Synlait) is very much a Chinese company now. It's contemplating UHT sales into the European continent from its UK subsidiary. It could even export out of the US.Quote:
Originally Posted by Harrie
The point about A2 Milk is that it's not specifically a NZ thing. As its UK CEO Scott Wotherspoon has said, the plan is to move on into other countries once it is well established in the UK, China and the US. While a2MC could get caught up tangentially in issues like the current 1080 scare, and its SP will inevitably fluctuate, it should be regarded as a longterm investment with bigger horizons.
Anyone know what % of a2 milk powder is manufactured in NZ and what % manufactured in Australia?
Mac believes that $750k worth in NZ, therefore on the basis of $1m revenue from this market, we have to assume $250k from Australia? seems a lot smaller than I had assumed.
Having said that I would have expected this market to grow exponentially so its the perception of growth opportunities being compromised by the 1080 scare which may depress the price somewhat even though the milk powder market is currently not a great contributor to total revenue.
Harrie, I think you may find that the forward prospects and size of the Australian fresh milk export to China is a significant market, very probably much greater than that of infant formula potential. Characteristically there are lot’s more adult consumers than infants at the end of the day.
It’s likely even IMO that the fresh milk and UHT market exports alone to China may well make the China segment profitable at FY15. If ATM pick up some growth from infant formula exports also, well great, some icing on the cake.
Fresh milk “could be pushing toward three million litres for 2015, according to its Asian general manager, Phil Wohlsen” and “expects demand to at least double each year.”
http://adf.farmonline.com.au/news/ma...2/2713426.aspx