Maybe, maybe not. As a supporter of PEB, I still believe one more capital raising is on the way. Let's see.
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the fact that PEBs SP has dropped during one of the greatest recent upswings in sentiment say a lot. Ignore at your peril :)
Why do you bother with this thread? Can you name me one topic or thread you have made a positive comment about.... anything but not Donald Trump please.
Who celebrated the milestone?
Is that really 1003 pages and 15031 posts on this thread?
This must be the most vibrant thread in all of ST!
23 Nov 2013 : Sp then was $1.29, it went as high as $1.75 in 2014 - after the very bullish comments by the company, especially the Chairman's 'tens of thousands of tests' pre Christmas 2013 interview with ODT.
You will note from the discussions around that time that I, Balance, was one of the posters who did not share the views of the doomers and gloomers.
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...ht=#post444180
So what has changed?
Well, for starters PEB has not met any of the bullish milestones, projections and cashflow comments - in fact, the company has steered clear of providing any follow up data. Instead, it shocked the market with a capital raising in 2015 after telling the market its previous rights issue would carry it through to profitability and positive cashflow.
Any wonder then why the sp is off 76% since the heady days of 2014?
You can try HBL, TIL, THL, SCL to name 4.
Reason why I bother with the thread? Read post #15037 above. Holding PEB to account is imo an essential part of balancing the incessant bullish comments by the company and believers, when the company has not been prepared to front up when there have been delays, costs over-runs and negative news.
Read through this thread and you will read that I accurately predicted their last capital raising, allowing those who followed my assessment to avoid further losses when the rights issue was indeed announced. Call it public service and sharing ideas.
I thought this is part of what ST is about?
Or is it just for those who want nothing but hot air to be blown up the proverbial of the company and its management?
Balance's positive comments on threads such as HBL.TIL and SCL have made a great deal of money for those of us who have followed his advice.
And his negative posts on this thread,NZO,PRC and the many "backdoor" listings, have saved us losing it.!
A savvy investor we can all learn from.
I know where I'd like to shove swann's "SEVERAL tens of thousands...."
Thanks Percy.
Wish what we write as our input could have been of some utility for them in making their own investment decisions and that's their choice as to what they choose to do their own assessment with.
With backdoor listings, we know it's mostly all hype with initial promoters making off with the gains day 1 and leaving those who buy into the hype stranded with cash burning investments - but every bull market attracts a new generation of 'investors' who think they know better. The market is after all littered with the losses sustained by those enticed into backdoors - Plus SMS, CER, Snakk, VML etc etc.
Warren Buffett famously said 'First rule of investing is NOT to lose money."
As usual, DYOR.
Any thoughts on what a Trump victory might look like for PEB specifically?
Nov 2013 : 'The politically divisive ''Obamacare'' health plan in the US also offers Pacific Edge the tantalising prospect of health customers numbering in the tens of millions. Mr Swann welcomed Obamacare as ''an opportunity'', but the legislative changes meant Pacific Edge had to wait longer and make changes to gain CMS accreditation, but he hopes it will be through early in 2014.'
It's 2016 - no accreditation yet and it's back to square 1 soon.
Assessment : Capital raising and rights issue coming up. 1 for 3 at 30 cents?
One small problem(since yesterday) trade tariffs--If trump actually puts his talk into practice,those depending on exporting are going to have a rocky road.
Much remains to be seen. As I understand it PEB has an operating lab in USA and as such could be seen as 'local'. Example; Honda has a huge investment in auto manufacture in USA..... I would think that Honda's treatment will be different from 'foreign' auto manufacturers who don't manufacture in USA.
However it is early days and there will be plenty of discussion on all such legislation.
If you are referring to PEB:
Yes, I can just see containers of pisspots stacking up on the wharf.:eek2:
PEDUSA. USA company employing USA people employed in helping USA victims of Bladder Cancer
Is there any problem with that?
Trump probably hasn't even had time to digest the fact that he has won, never mind what he should try and get approval to actually do about trade, if anything.
No problem at all--but it depends on how they legislate(if at all)--His isolationist attitude is a pretty big part of his ravings--Just something to keep tabs on --who knows whats going to happen--american co.s could still have a sweeter deal (especially if they kick up a fuss)no stacking up on the wharf-just an addition cost. I would agree though that it is not an immediate issue--But all that red tape coming up will most likely slow the process even further---This is a major change in policy. business as usual,with negotiations? I dont think so--Who in their right mind would enter into a major agreement in this new climate with so much up in the air.
I do agree that PEB won't immediately be affected by this change in government and ideology. It would be idiotic (but I guess anything is possible) for the election of Trump to result in a change to American medicines school of thought specific to bladder cancer treatment of "Let's stay with the cytology/cystoscopy approach and scrap all these new non-invasive innovations so that our best and brightest US urologists maintain their large revenues" or "We'll pursue the technology of American born-and-bred innovators, even though studies are showing a NZ-headquartered company has a superior test, as our new protectionist slant requires us to put American profits first."
I doubt the reactionary wheels of 'sending foreign companies packing' will be turning in a real hurry, considering the long-road and hoops that companies like PEB need to go through to get cut-through in the US system. PEB has already come a long way. There are other companies (US based) that offer similar technologies to PEB, and it would be a madness for a lot of this work to be undone, so I'm not in panic mode. Trump, although abrasive in rhetoric, will be reeled in somewhat by the Republican movement and won't be making the 'insane' decisions many people think he will.
As Minerbarejet said, how can something in the bladder cancer space, with the capacity to assist vast US citizens, be shown the door in the near future just because they were born and bred in NZ?
Not shown the door--not just stay with cytology--but IF it happened ,it would mean an additional cost to bring it to market--The American public,or insurance co.s would decide if its still worth paying more for---It would be down the line,or maybe never(or they may get into the trade barrier thing sooner than we think--It may be his pet project,who knows?..(those rust belt workers are gonna want payback)---Your statement did need correcting though.(dont confuse ethics with economics-they are 2 different things)
The tariffs will all balance themselves out once we apply 35% to Boeing jets and John Deere tractors....:t_up:
http://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/...20161110-00029
http://mdxhealth.com/sites/mdxhealth...Jan%202016.pdf
PEB can learn something from MDxH with its presentation - let's see what happens on 24th Nov.
Its time for some serious research on what affect the Trump victory will have on the healthcare industry--Im not saying either way,but it is without a doubt the biggest factor ATM on where a company like PEB is going--The rule book is going to change (for better or worse)
Most are predicting there will be a period of uncertainty and confusion.How long ,we dont know.
there will be more and more articles coming up on how Trump will affect different industries.
This is a BIG change for American politics and policies---those who keep up will benefit from the knowledge
Constant change is always expected.
I suspect any BIG changes in the USA will take time and be well discussed/signalled. In the meantime it is business as usual. The reality is that the USA needs trade with other countries to remain competitive and to assist its exports, strategic alliances etc as much as we need USA.
If the USA closes doors on trade, it won't happen overnight, and we can be sure other doors will open. PEB's moves in Singapore (and other countries) may now be seen as a positive strength. Canada could become very interesting for NZ as per this article. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...divisive-trump
But in the meantime it is business as usual and looking forward to the update Nov 24.
I feel Trump will benefit Pacific Edge.
Repealing the Affordable Care Act will allow Pacific Edge to possibly charge higher prices for their tests
They are already signaled---Everyone seems to all be making the same mistake,interrupting a move towards protectionism as stopping imports/exports--thats not the case--Its about imposing tarrifs which rather than stop imports,it makes them more expensive.
This is not business as usual imo. how would you like to be in the middle of very lengthy negotiations to get your product accepted ,only to find everything put on the back burner while things become clearer. I personaly thing no one is going to sign a major deal when they dont know just how this redical change in gov. is going to affect things---trump is not business as usual.
I do concede that there is a risk things will take even longer, but I don't think this will stop PEB from being successful. The frustrating inertia in the US medical space may prolong, but eventually a urologist (or many) will be sued for mis-diagnosis and the old dinosaur methods will begin to be replaced by more accurate/better tests. The tariffs are likely to affect the bottom line one way or another, but this will be the reality all foreign operators will be subject to. The better more accurate test will win out in the end in my view.
Not according to PEB. In fact, the exact opposite.
This is what PEB stated in May 2013 : "Significant change is underway within the USA healthcare system under the much-publicised 'Obamacare' (Affordable Care Act) and there is renewed focus on shifting healthcare from a cost plus mentality to a value based approach.
This change is heralded by many as an exciting opportunity for new technologies to be able to be recognised for their ability to increase efficacy and lower overall costs.
Where this is the case, greater value could otherwise be expected to flow from these technologies. Treatment of bladder cancer incurs the highest total medical costs of any cancer.
In the United States this figure is approaching US$200,000 per patient from detection until death. In the USA there are expected to be in excess of 1,000,000 people presenting to their healthcare provider this year with blood in their urine (haematuria).
It is anticipated that the USA healthcare system could invest in excess of $1 billion this year in investigating haematuria."
So what they are saying is that the Insurers would move away from more expensive investigative techniques (cystoscopy) to less expensive (urine tests). NOT that the price PEB can charge for their tests will decrease as a result of repealing Obamacare.
Insurers under Obamacare face pressure to source medical costs at the lowest possible price as they are obligated by law to cover anyone and everyone at affordable premiums. Thus there is immense pressure to keep the cost of healthcare as low as possible so that they have a hope of making a profit from insuring millions of people below their actuarial cost of insurance.
Healthcare is expected to benefit from Trump's policies due to less regulation and less restriction on medical cost inflation - evidenced by the surge in healthcare stocks immediately after the election.
PEB stands to benefit because they are no longer under the same cost-minimising pressures as it becomes easier for Insurers to balance the cost of healthcare by setting premium levels they want. Having worked with the US healthcare industry in the insurance field, I have seen first hand how healthcare operates - the hospital bill always comes as an "insured version" and an "uninsured version". Guess which has huge markups on every piece of equipment used.
Under Obamacare,far more people would be insured imo,even if the unit charges would be less.I believe there will be a sizable segment of the population that will fall through the cracks.
It is far better to get a smaller slice of alot of things than a bigger slice of fewer things-(thats just economics 101)-Under deregulation there will be quite possibly many people who will not have a hope of getting the benefit of CX. the ''haves'' are far fewer in number than the ''have nots''(that would still be eligible for Obamacare)----This is not an administration that is going to look after its people.
Of course,you still have to talk those private insurance co.s to jump on board even to get the smaller numbers at a more expensive price
You are only looking at one side of the equation---look at what the formula is for some of the most successful co.s and you will see it is organizations that sell to the multitudes.
It could also be argued that insurance companies ,flush with assets,are going to be able to afford to let urologists have their way and fall back on their preferred option of cytology,which is entrenched in the system.
PEBs battle for acceptance has just been set back like a game of snakes and ladders.---Gunter ,how much evidence of PEB have you seem in the insurance industry you work in?
Economics 101 would be to sell fewer units at a higher price if it maximises your profit over selling more units at a lower price, Skid. PEB isn't in a perfectly competitive market - it has a relatively unique product with high barriers to entry, and is a disruptor in it's field.
I left the medical insurance industry prior to PEB being released in the market, but have specifically worked in cost containment areas in both the US and Singapore
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-us...-idUSKBN1360DC
It is way too early to assume anything re PEB's chances in the USA arising from the likely dismantling of Obama care. Indeed there are already reports emerging (RNZ News) that Obama care won't be axed in entirety.
I doubt PEB were 'guilding the lily' way back in 2013. Merely stating a facts as they saw them way back then, and thank you Grunter for your views.
Times are changing, and good companies will be measured by how they cope with these changes.
Ongoing insurance issue's,
Charging $3000 for a test you can purchase for $350Au is BS.
https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&s...WsnenSE8sQHIRQ
https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&s...OOXfyyFmiKV7kA
Looks good..... still early days and still awaiting financial update 24 Nov.
POSITIVE RESULTS IN KAISER PERMANENTE USER PROGRAMME
Cancer diagnostics company Pacific Edge (NZX: PEB) has advised that it has
successfully completed its analysis of the data from the large scale Kaiser
Permanente (Kaiser) User Programme with positive and compelling findings.
The performance of Pacific Edge's Cxbladder Triage test was evaluated in a
large, blinded study (User Programme) on consenting Kaiser patients, with
findings equivalent to the previously published performance for Cxbladder
Triage. Kaiser is currently completing its own analysis of the data, with the
joint analysis to be submitted for scientific and clinical publication.
The next test is whether or not PEB can secure an exclusive contract, good test results are good, but if it just means they are given access to compete with several other competitive providers, some of whom will be entrenched, some of whom are new and innovative like Cxbladder, than this user programme is worth really very little.
Hopefully they can show some hard ball commercial negotiation skills and make something of it, what are the odds ?
Must admit am surprised 'tens of millions' opportunities not mentioned in the announcement - a big thumbs up to PEB!
Underwriters trying to get sp up to suck punters in? :D
This is very significant news in my mind, although the contract hasn’t been signed yet so a bit of caution is advised. The market sure seems to like it anyway.
If they pull it off the revenue implications are potentially huge, depending on how KP decides to use cxTriage in their clinical process.
A large study of 2000 participants with great results is exactly what the medical community wants and will make them take notice. Don’t underestimate the importance of this.
An endorsement by KP will be great for Pacific Edge and will certainly give them a lot of clout.
Well... from the scaremongering (like that of NBR comments on XRO 4 years ago), to the insto's pumping up the price... seems we've all heard it before...
Bringing up the 'tried and true underwriters pumping up the price card'...when you have to pull out this card you really must be running out of ideas to bring PEB down... not surprised, all the other 'cards' seem to have been pulled out multiple times recently... the continued momentum and steps PEB has been making in the past 6 months is looking very promising, so resorting to reaons that are year(s) old isn't surprising I suppose ;) (oh and there have been no SSH notices of any major institutions selling down, in fact the last SSH's notices I saw was of these insto's buying more, at the expense of the retail seller panic that occurs every now and then)
Volume is pretty good so if the insto's must be doing a good job (if the are in fact dumping) of making people pay above 20% premium to Friday last week ;)
Aside from this oustanding endorsement, I like the "negotiate a commercial relationship" part at the end...
At the end of the day, todays announcement does not justify the increase in share price.
Take it away Diana:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4GtyMeEcPPE
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
One thing that occurs to me is that CMS may very well have been waiting for the results of this User Program too.
Validation of 2000 tests on their own population would likely score enough points for CMS to take some action.
Good to see over 1m in volume and a bit of blue sky in view for a change.
Agree, some folk are mistaking study results with a conversion to commercial transaction, there's an awful long way to go for that to happen, and PEB need that contract to be exclusive for it to be a meaningful contribution to revenues.
Hopefully they can drag it across the line, it's all down now to senior KP urologists and whether it's worth moving away from the status quo treatment, and the relative cost benefit of Cx above what the status quo already adequately provides them.
Quite an innovative co though KP, they might just do it.
Pacific Edge convinced KP to do a trial of cxTriage over all the competing products out there. Give them some credit for that. No one else has managed to do it so far.
The fact that KP did a large study (time + money) suggests to me that they already would have done some homework on the cost benefits should the study confirm the performance of the product .
The contract negotiation would be for cxTriage. For a competitor to come in at this point they would I imagine need to convince KP to do another study and that their product is so much better and cheaper.
I fully agree that caution is advised until such time as a contract has been signed. I fully expect one will be but it remains to be seen how advantageous it is for Pacific Edge. I think KP will be skilled negotiators.
Whatever the outcome a published study of 2000 participants with the endorsement of KP is fantastic. To get bodies like Blue Cross and the Urological Society of America on board this is exactly what is needed as they continue to cite the lack of published results as a barrier for acceptance.
Well said Bing
We also shouldn't forget that KP has been looking for something like CX bladder for years. Even to the extent of putting their own venture capital into that Predictive outfit that later went bust after CMS refused them coverage basically for not being good enough.
The question therefore still remains: Will KP adopt cx bladder?
If it is satisfied with the results then the huge savings over cystoscopy in Triage become obvious for a nonprofit organisation.
https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/pac-ed...trial-b-196675
Net cash outflows to operating activities according to annual reports :
To 31 March 2016 - $16.95 million
To 31 March 2015 - $12.54 million
To 31 March 2014 - $9.52 million
To 31 March 2013 - $6.71 million
Yeah well NBR, ODT, Sharechat and every other Google alert so far have been unable to spot the glaring error that is obvious in that article.
PEB has not traded anywhere near 9 cents recently so I wont be putting too much store in publications that cant even check the facts and just pass it on.
If in doubt, check it out.
Don't forget what David's idea of "successful commercialisation" really is
I can proudly acknowledge those who have written on this forum and via PM thanking me for my contributions which have saved them from losses and/or more losses, and for assisting them to make gains.
Can you say the same for yourself or other PEB(lers)?
I don't doubt that Balance. I can't deny you've made some good picks in the past, that people have followed and benefited from. However when a poster starts denigrating even good news, which I feel some of us are including yourself, their views go from rational to caustic (for the sake of drama it seems).
Let's all raise the level as STMOD puts it (myself included), however a little vent is necessary sometimes. I don't apologise.
A lot of good news for Wynyard over the years as well. I am cautious about PEB and when they will get into positive Cash Flow.
And, it's looking increasingly likely PEB will need a CR next year. But, will they any longer be able to raise capital on the NZX after so so so many failed commercial goals and expectations, I reckon the next time around will be challenging for them, and they may fall short of what they want at any price.
If only they could gather revenues to a timley plan all would be rosy, they are making progress, it's just too damn slowly to prospectively remain solvent.
Harbour still have around 9% of PEB just like they have around 9% trapped in WYN.
Remember this expectation;
Attachment 8450
Interesting watching this from the sidelines. What is the general feel about operating cashflows? If it is near or above the -$17M this year they will have to have a stunning increase in sales to stop another raise. Also to avoid a "Wynyard" they will have to show good governance if the sales dont match up. Could be a discounted raise if thats the case...who will invest and at what price?
The last Edison report (June) estimated FY17 outturns as 11.3m in revenues, EBITDA of -6.7m, NPAT of -7.5m, with 20.8m cash on hand. Although, every report Edison produce they tend to downgrade their estimates yet again, and that EBITDA estimate just seems very optimistic to me. But lets see, we get HY results on the 24th.
We had some good news in regard to the KP study, but it's unlikley that would translate to meaningful revenues in a meaningful time frame.
Personally, at this time, I wouldn't be buying PEB above 15c, but lets see, perhaps they will surprise us next week for the first time in three years or so, I genuinely hope so for shareholders.
having already a lost substantial on PEB, I would probably take another punt if the SP falls below 10 cents.
I got caught up in all the hype and hysteria towards the end of 2013, when Chris Swann was on record saying that they expected to complete "several tens of thousands of tests" in 2014. I ended up buying without doing my own research and entered near the top of its peak, only to sell out about a year ago at 40 cents.
After buying in, I started to do a lot of research on the company and its governance. Then, I attended a meeting with DD at the Ellereslie race course in Auckland (after which I warned others here that things were looking bad).
Not only was I really pissed off by the hype spun by Swann, but I was hit by the fact that DD had very little commercial nous/experience, particularly in the US market (which my own family successfully penetrated years ago). I also realised that DD knew very little about simple economic concepts like demand elasticity and that PEB's pricing strategy was largely arbitrary and unlikely to be optimal. Quite frankly I was shocked by just how bad the commercial side of the business was, and held on in the hope that they would succeed anyway. Fast forward to early this year, and became clear that it just wasnt going to happen. So, I exited and took the loss on the chin.
Lesson learned - DYOR!
Well Old Guy, you have impressed me with your honesty - so my hat goes off to you sir!
Although accurate analysis is easy to put together retrospectively and hence easy to make sense of previous decisions (good or bad), it is very much harder to do it in a predictive manner.
You are correct when you say DYOR - and it is especially important to do it prior to buying in.
I genuinely wish you better luck with your future investments.
Thanks Dentie.
While it sounds totally cliche, I would actually be over the moon if my confession helped others rethink their own investments before things (potentially) fall apart.
To me, that is the whole point of this site. Shame that all the angst and stupid posts have eroded it...
Unfortunately Old Guy...although there are some very educative and well meaning tips and information that gets posted on ST, the site also suffers from those who fancy themselves as share guru's who have planet sized ego's to match. These are type's who gleefully love to say "I told you so" etc. The important trick is knowing how to filter the latter out!!
The bottom line is, as you have stated, "DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH".;)
Thanks Balance, me too,
I have seen the light at last. After these current revelations and lessons from Bishop, sorry I mean Balance I have decided to sell off my One million shares in PEB, take a small loss and move on. Thank you from the bottom of my heart.
The important thing that people lose sight of is that there are several types of investors in this stock. Those who buy large for the very long-term (5-10 years) (as a way of supporting the biotech industry), those who buy say 10,000 - 50,000 shares as part of their wider portfolio (and give it 3-5 years) and those who buy a small speculative hold (below equal weight) as part of a wider portfolio. There are also those that actively trade of stocks daily such as PEB, make a small gain, and move on. And any number of different investors in between.
One posters advice cannot possibly have "blanket" take-up across all PEB investors, because there is a wide range of motivations as to why someone has bought PEB, when they bought into it (baggage or no baggage), the average price they bought it for, and the different perception of how successful or unsuccessful the stock will be.
If you buy 100,000 shares at $1 each and panic/sell when the share price drops to $0.60, then that is horrible decision making. Your original motivation for buying the 100,000 in the first place, raises questions. Were you under the false pretence (that so many NZ'ers are) that shares are always meant to go up?
Always review your motivation, timeframe to invest for, and long-term perception, before going into any stock. This goes for MFT. This goes for FPH. This goes for WDT. This goes for PEB.
I contributed $20k cash to Pacific Edge's cause a few years ago (cap raise)
Wonder what they did with it
Disc: that contribution allows me to comment on this thread eh
Mr Bass, you are very boldly assuming PEB will even be solvent in 3 to 5 years from now, I strongly recommend a read of the balance sheet in conjunction with knowing PEB have fallen short of analyst revenue expectations at each report for three years or so now.
The investment risk in PEB is ever increasing, and some long term investors (3 to 5 years) will indeed undoubtedly take the opportunity of this bounce in share price to exit, who knows when or if there will be another, in my opinion that seems very much a fair decision for a longie to take.