Hope Jeff got some magic up his sleeve and deliver another surprise at ASM this arvo..
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Hope Jeff got some magic up his sleeve and deliver another surprise at ASM this arvo..
Extract from CEO's speech. All you really need to know so we can all go back to :sleep:Quote:
However, despite the lockdowns, we remain on track
to deliver a result within the guidance range of $93 - $96 million
I'll get stuck into the sausage rolls and wine now :D
• Sir Christopher Mace will continue in the new role of Kaumātua
Reassuring.
All looking good and as Beagle and winner69 have pointed out, we are in for $96m NPAT this year.
Good to see they have not yet touched the $ 9.6m "COVID overlay" and intend to keep it in place. A good decision.
Jeff talked about strong performance in "asset finance" so looking forward to good growth there from infrastructure, transport and agriculture.
Most importantly, the Chairman stated that dividends will continue to grow so all good. The Chairman has been great for HGH and us SH, but maybe time soon to hand over to the next generation !
A happy holder
A well run company with the management and board having plenty of skin in the game. A consistent performer.
Aussie bank reports so far seem to indicate net interest margins are increasing.
Good sign for Heartland this financial year
Global Dairy Prices up again last night
Should see Heartland share price push on to new all time highs …250 plus here we come
RBNZ in its update said The other banks must lift their minimum tier 1 capital to 14%.
…Westpac apparently already over that
How’s Heartland placed
Not sure mate, time for another one of your fantastic graphs to show how its grown over the last few years ?
From memory they have 7 years (as of about a year ago so something like 6 years now ?) to attain that and with their DRIP program they could get there under their own steam. I've been subscribing to the DRIP for years now.
I'm guessing banks like volatility as much as most businesses when it comes to price setting, after several years of consistently low int rates where there isnt really anywhere for margins to go, the recent sudden changes allow some promising obfuscation opportunities. The slightest unnoticed margin increase can result in a decent profit uplift so some positivity for HGH might come out of growing uncertainty.
I swear every time someone on here mentions the milk price, HGH starts to nose dive :scared:
Solid results in GDT auction overnight - WMP up 1.9% and continues steady rise
HGH share price a bit flat lately but it’ll follow the dairy prices up any day now.
LEK noted on another thread that GDT prices in NZD highest since 2007
Heartland share price will reach a new all time high in next two weeks ...might even get to $2.50
Pretty impressive that there is a 70% increase in the 4 months to 31 Oct compared to pcp :
"At Heartland Bank, the rise has been even more marked.
“In the four months ended October 31, we have had a 70% increase in new business compared with the same time last year,” Ford said.
“So we have seen a big increase in the number of older people wanting to access some equity in their home so they can live a more comfortable retirement.” "
Yeah I thought that 70% increase was very encouraging.
I agree Percy, they have a track record of being very conservative with lending in this area.
I would think if a super fit 90 year old wanted to borrow 50% on some $15m Herne Bay Mansion they'd probably give them a polite talking too rather than approve the loan. You and I would be lucky to make it to 90 and most certainly won't be borrowing if we do ;)
Have you bought that new car yet ?, you can't take it with you ;)
Not not yet...Will wait 26 months until I pass the 75 year old's driving test.
I wonder what HGH's and PAZ's share prices will be then,and if SFF's divie will be enough for a hybrid Suzuki Swift..?
Crikey 4.1 litres per 100 km..Incredible.
A lot to look forward to.
I think you know the dog is considering a very different hybrid at the other end of the scale than a Suzuki ;)
I can't see the point of accumulating wealth if you don't enjoy some of it along the way.
Go on Percy, get something decent to drive while you still can https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ijt1QUopK5c
Spend some of your millions and stop being a Scrooge :p You do realise you can't take it with you when you go ?
There's an old saying, if you don't travel first class, your kids will ;)
LOL - I reckon with the way TRA are going our mate Grant Baker will be pretty keen on one of these https://www.driven.co.nz/news/check-...ampaign=topbox
Overnight dairy auction prices the highest in 7 years. What's that mean again winner?:t_up:
Yes sounds good sir! No worries.
Dairy auction overnight … WMP index down 3.3% ….hmmm
Well it certainly been a very successful investment for HGH shareholders.
Share price was $1.66 on 23rd December last year.Currently up 40.96% to today's share price of $2.34.
But wait there's more in the form of two divies..
Certainly beats the Dow Jones 30 which is up 17.46% in the same period.
I’m very happy with the parcel bought @ 58c some years ago 😋
And wait till HMY takes off :)
In to these for 1.07 from April last year, only wish I’d bought more!
Have been acquiring HMY lately
They sure were a good investment. Looking pretty expensive compared to the big banks these days though.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote...44/financials/
Average forecast is 12 cps in dividends next year fully imputed gives 7.2% gross yield rising to 13 cps in FY23 giving 7.8% gross.
About fair value now in my opinion. Holding for yield and dividend growth in the years ahead.
Bugger ….Heartland seems to be the most popular stock in Brokers Tips for 2022 …like Hesrtland the ‘hottest’ of the ‘hot stocks to watch’
Often not a good sign
One thing though it’ll help the shareprice over the next two to three weeks and the mum and dad punters do their annual review and start buying the popular stocks.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...5S2BSK4ZUXZME/
This was one of my larger positions back in the day that it was spun out of PGC. I think from memory at $.88. Since then it has increased eps I think every year. Have sold down over the years but still have a good holding. A shame it missed out on UDC but anyway has done well growing the business organically. Still plenty of growth in reverse mortgage side. Also I like the large insider ownership with the CEO and several of the board including Tomlinson having a large stake. For me it’s one of those shares that you put in the bottom draw.
I’ve noticed over the years that these broker picks (esp the more popular ones) do seem to have a fair bit of buying support over the break ….I’ve assumed mums and dads buying while the big buys are on holiday
So more than $2.50 in a couple weeks quite possible ….no, I mean probably quite high
What was the old ticker code these traded under mate ?
Thanks. Doesn't show up in the history on direct broking when you go into one's portfolio and tick all. I'll never know how much I've made out of the group now as I was relying on Direct's digital track record but its fair to say it's a "hearty" amount ;)
I think it will show decent share price gains over the years ahead with fabulous growth in their reverse home equity lending. Gross yields as noted in an earlier recent post are very good so its a good solid hold going forward despite not being especially cheap on a relative basis with its peer group anymore.
I used to use findata until that stoped , now use yahoo free watchlist. It’s like most of them though that if there is a name change you have to transfer holding to new ticker code. It did not allow you to track dividends which I’m fine with as I only measure capital changes.
What's the chances we see a 3 at the front of the price on this?
I'd say pretty high based on their impressive ability to execute. Happy to pick this up at the $1 mark way back during the covid dip.
Home equity release market to go crazy ….only way out of financial stress for many ..inevitiable
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opi...old-hard-facts
Darn boomers, first they ride the biggest and easiest multi decade property boom and then they go and cut my inheritance lunch by giving it back to the banks :scared:
Govt should increase mandatory kiwisaver contribution rates to 6%. What is Aussie up to? 10%!! Common NZ.
This would go a long way to solving the retirement issues we face as a country. It will also help battle inflation by taking money out of peoples pockets.
Then lift the retirement age to 67 for white collar office or light duty workers and keep it at 65 for blue collar workers. I have a mate that is a bricklayer. His body will be buggered long before my right index finger buggers out from clicking the mouse in my office.
Hey rawz …read this good article …..was written in 2007 and now the world is probably even more slanted to the Jagger Generation.
Don’t forget young man we worked hard to make NZ a great place to live….…rawz, you’ll just have to work harder and your due rewards will come
Whatever, have a happy and prosperous 2022
Looks as though the brokers' HGH pick is driving demand, as the current share price is $2.42.
Yeah the buy side shows large numbers of buyers possibly buying smallish parcels. Given the amount of people away at the moment the sell side could dry up quite quickly if this carries on.
I'm thinking $2.42 might be an All Time High? (Just going off the top of my head)
HGH is heading towards $2.75 imo - Jarden & Hobson Wealth have as their top picks which mean that they will be recommending & adding to clients' portfolio in the year ahead. Unlike others (as in MSL & NZSA), they are not allowed to recommend stocks unless they have research or a BUY recommendation.
One of my core holding since I bought the first lot when Georgie Porgie of PGC sold all of his shareholding at 52c back in 2012.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/bu...artland-shares
Averaged up all the way to 82c and have been happily collecting the dividends and enjoying the sp appreciation at the same time.
It surprises me with professional and businessmen my age I know, some of them have been making very good money over the years and yet many have little if anything set aside for retirement despite being on the wrong side of 60. Worse, some of them have received very good advice from me to get on with a retirement savings program but have chosen to "do an ostrich", keep enjoying their comfortable lifestyle and choose to ignore the problem.
As you suggest, they will have no choice but to eat into the value of their homes either through selling and downsizing, perhaps into the regional provinces or a reverse equity mortgage. I think HGH has a bright future ahead.
Got to 250
You have to love those Brokers
Heartland -- the hottest of the Broker's Hot Tips
Its a better choice than AIR for sure. Still the new years rush to go.
Honey, what's this heartland bank that comes recommended by XX. *clicks on site*.
Also- HGH is so cheap its only $2.50 vs $21 for Westpac and $27 for ANZ.
I have had friends tell me this. Sad!
I suspect you're dead right again mate but it might take a "little" while to get there ;)
Got thinking this morning on past successes (as us old dogs tend to do at this time of year) and back in 2017 at $2.14 it was trading on a forward PE of just on 18 but the ten year rate was a lot higher so would need to be on a forward PE of about 20 now to be similarly frothy. Mid point of 2022 forecast is 16 cps but could be 17.5 cps for FY2023 and the market is always a forward looking beast.
I think $3 is not totally out of the question in late 2022 or early 2023 (total shareholder return of 25-30% is possible including dividends) but that's a forward PE of 17 on 17.5 cps for FY23 and is getting right up there in terms of fair value in my opinion.
Yeah good call winner 2.50 :t_up:. Been saying it for a while
Fintechs have a minus PE.
If the market decides that's what it is then we can expect over 5 bucks.
At $2.50 still a healthy gross yield of 6.5% :)
13 cps forecast dividend for next year (FY23) = 18.05 cps gross / 250 = 7.22% gross prospective yield for next financial year + dividend growth in the years ahead. Stock is in a confirmed long term uptrend. Happy holder.
One of my core holdings now too. I bought a small holding back in 2012, and steadily added until end of 2020. It has had its ups and downs as it fell in & out of favour with the market. Perhaps being a small financial/bank stock (a rare entity on the NZX) it is more prone to sentiment? However for a long term investor, the downs became opportunities to add.
Digital mortgage battle to erupt as fintechs eye home loans
https://www.smh.com.au/business/bank...13-p59h7l.html
For NZers of that age group, they were behaving rationally. There was no KiwiSaver (although its incentives are weak too) for much of their working life, no tax incentive to join private superannuation schemes. Investments, bought out of taxed income, that produced income were again taxed - and at one stage had extra tax imposed, if you had income over a certain level when you reached government pension age. in inflationary times you're taxed in effect just on the inflationary component of the yield on many investments. So perhaps there was comparatively little systemic incentive to build up a portfolio of income producing assets.
The biggest tax incentive was to pour as much equity as possible into leveraged real estate ownership to get untaxed capital gains. And the NZ governments, both Nat and Lab over the years have indeed delivered them healthy capital gains. It has been the best tax incentivised pension plan. So HGH, along with the retirement villages offering ORAs, have a big potential market in NZ.
I have been a landlord and hated it, so have chosen equities as a form of savings - for the (potential) dividends of course rather than with any intention to avoid tax on capital gains!
But I think it is a perfectly rational strategy to live at a level you are comfortable with during your working life and then draw down your capital in your declining years. We have been on the cusp of that situation for the last few years with me almost completely retired, and my wife easing back. The fact that Covid has prevented our usual expenditure on travel (diving, walking, local culture etc) is all that has stood between us and progressive selldowns. If it wasn't for our equities we would certainly be reverse mortgaging.
Our deal with our accountant is that he is free to do his job by giving us wise and prudent financial advice - and we are free to ignore it! Im sure he does not approve of our portfolio choices and weightings!
We are happy holders.
In some countries, the object of pension policies and private contributory pension schemes is to provide an level of income in retirement that would mean that income-producing assets and the family home especially would not need to be disposed of in retirement.
Happy holder too. I use the Smartshares NZ top 50 ETF as a benchmark. Over the years so far my investment in HBL/HGH has exceeded that by a considerable margin.
Definitely agree with that. With houses in many regions now over $1m moving out of big cities into regional N.Z. is not going to free up as much capital as it might have a few years ago so reverse equity loans are going to be a MASSIVE growth area for Heartland going forward and many will trade down into a smaller comfortable apartment and free up worthwhile capital that way so the retirement sector also stands to reap the rewards.
Fresh all time high. Probably the first of long series of new all time high's this year in my opinion.
These new lending rules (the credit contracts & consumer finance act - 'CCCFA') that came into effect 1 december certainly have caused a stir
Rawz whats your take on how this could impact our favourite clutch of NZX lending orientated firms - HGH, TRA, HMY?
Todd Hunter commented on this in the TRA thread recently. No worries for HGH either as I think most old folks looking for a reverse equity mortgage make their own avocado's on toast ;)
Global Dairy Trade last night prices up 4.6%
Prices been strong inbreçent months …as has HGH share price
Bodes well for more all time highs in lead up to heartlands half year announcement
Who would have though PGC would be where it is today.
US banks a bit trashed lately but US oil is now months into a surge upward.
yep, we held it.. only sold HGH recently. Did not fit the profiles but has done better that the international pros..
what a shocker it was. Everytime walk past the HGH shops they are like empty little show fronts.
Be interesting to see how they handle technology going forward from here.
Inclined to agree. Its been a stellar performer over the last 12 months in what I consider my nzx blue chips.It's a long term hold for me. Growth plus respectable dividends. I'd buy more at todays prices and I expect soon will. Simple math.