I thought the share registry set the price.?
Printable View
Real investors (not boring guru brokers) are saying that banks that do a good job in prioritizing high-demand products and services and profitable customer segments will see the market rerating them in the next few years
Heartland fit the bill
Good idea....something to do after lunch and then you can come back with your usual comparison with NTA premiums. I can't recall ever being this bored in my life before for such a long period of time and I have never been so happy to have such a large home for plenty of social distancing from Mrs Beagle. This says it all lol https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7d1_mBBmOZg
33 cases today...Covid prison sentence for at least another 2 weeks in Auckland...you read it here first and there's no need to listen into Saint Cindy's endless ramblings from her throne this afternoon.
My heart sank when I listened to the numbers. Cabin fever is starting to set in but at least I heard my first shining cuckoo* of the season, so Summer is coming! Or maybe I have gone cuckoo!
However I may regret not to have participated in the DRIP, although it is still one of my top 3 (out of 15 holdings.)
*pīpīwharauroa
Beagle - here's the price to NTA numbers of HGH and its peers
All the banks have been 're-rated' upwards since January
Ignoring CBA as they are so special Heartland has the highest Price to NTA of all their peers - by quite a margin as well
Being a fintech helps eh
Ticker Jan 21 Aug 21
CBA 2.31 2.51
HGH 1.73 1.95
NAB 1.40 1.61
WBC 1.35 1.54
ANZ 1.21 1.34
BOQ 1.12 1.21
BEN 1.22 0.98
"Thanks" for that, as if we don't have enough challenges to deal with in Auckland...you reminded me that this week we get to enjoy even more extensive amounts of Te Reo being forcefully rammed down out throats. I'm so "thrilled" :rolleyes:
Winner mate...I was going to do a PE comparison but I've slid even further into a malaise of discontent. I can't be bothered.
What a nice sight/amount :t_up: Divvie money on the bank!!!
Closed the day on market at $2.35 probably boosted a bit by the very strong GDP number that came out today confirming the economy was running very strong. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...E4W5PW3EQAR5E/
Jarden have a target price of $2.46 which seems about right to me although it wouldn't surprise me to see this up around $2.70 in due course.
about to have another go at breaking through that resistance.
3rd time lucky! ?
Financials generally do very well in a rising interest rate environment and that's certainly what's coming.
Big trades @ $2.37 after the close
Equals the very recent all time high it traded at cum the 7 cent divvy. Now trades ex divvy, (so "sort of" another new all time high in adjusted terms, $2.44). Like you mate, I'm a very happy holder. Outperformance of this one has lead to it being 11% of my portfolio and makes me Attachment 12976
Very well fed and contented.
Jeff always says Heartland’s fortunes are dependent on general economic activity and employment numbers
Record high GDP and pretty low unemployment at the moment …good for Heartland
Thanks Grant Robertson for a masterful display in guiding NZ economy through the covid crisis
Agree.
HGH in good shape,
NZ in good shape.
"We don't know how lucky we are."
ps.A few years ago I paid about $230 for a shingles jab.Then about 3 years ago I had the Govt free one.
Just wonder the cost of these Covid jabs.?....$300 or $400 per jab.?
If I had to pay I would have.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/pol...ost-14-billion
"On those numbers, the cost of the entire vaccine roll-out will be about $273 per New Zealander, on latest Stats NZ population estimates."
And if the vaccine costs say 20 a pop then there is an awful lot of overhead
NZ banks made zillions in June quarter
Here’s KPMG report - see how the minnow Heartland performs relative to others
Is only Heartland Bank in NZ …not Heartland Group
https://assets.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg...-quarterly.pdf
1/ Increase in interest margin of 30 basis points over the year (Table 1) exceeds all (except SBS, but we all know they are really a building society so not really deserving of the bank monicker).
2/ Increase in gross loans over the June quarter up 3.11%, right at the top (Table 2). But on an annual 12 month rolling period basis loan growth is near the bottom of the pack. Maybe Heartland more affected by competition from government loans than the others?
3/ Impaired asset expense down 94 basis points for the year = way ahead of the competition. But on a June quarter basis Heartland the only bank to show impaired asset expenses increasing? (Table 4)
Good to see Heartland in that elite top nine list of 'Major Banks'. But when you look at the ensuing graphs Heartland drop out of the major bank picture. So is there some doubt that Heartland is really a 'major bank'? We better keep it quiet that Heartland have outsourced the banking side of their business to Westpac. Still KPMG believes they are a bank so that is all that matters. Long may the marketing con continue. Geoff, still the man!
SNOOPY
Heartland's Annual Report over 140 pages this year .... pretty thick
Beagle - you going to the Hui ā-tau - lockdown be over by then
The boy on the cover of the AR looks rather sad .... probably a hidden meaning which I don't get (from photography angle a good photo though)
Hidden on page 13, one obscure table showing how HGH is heads and shoulders above the others.
Attachment 12999
The lad is obviously a thinker. Contemplating the Chairman’s address - expecting npat for 2022 year increasing from $87m to $93/96m. What will that do to the share price and future dividends :)
There are no free lunches - right ? So this reflects more risk I guess. And if there is a meltdown, then those chickens may come home to roost. Or at least some of them. Will it be sustainable going forward ?
For now....good news for holders.
Disc: Holder, biggest % of portfolio.
For now
It would be nice to think we'll be able to attend in person and partake of some kai (food) together but I suspect that Covid will have a long teyel. (tail)
Certain ethnicities mainly in South Auckland are not doing enough hard mahi (work) and sticking to their mirumiru's. (bubbles).
Apparently if you listen to all the politically correct do-gooders, saying the same thing twice in different languages is very much on trend.
Thankfully there is mate. Analyst presentation here. Everything that's really relevant in only 34 pages :t_up: Cuts out the almost endless ESG nonsense too.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...825/352948.pdf
"bubbles"
got an order in with a local german to find some older style champagne crystal glasses with etchings. She said she might have to look outside ANZ. Better not call it the HK as thats probably enough hysteria for the week and its only monday.
I dont think either WHS or Bris will have these rare items in stock or would be shocked if they did.
Getting ready to toast $5 real soon ?
Wrong thread of course, but if MR B thinks WHS 5 dollars on the horizon soon we would have to ship a crate to his castle :eek2:.
Looking forward
• Higher growth in Reverse Mortgages,
Home Loans and transition of
Harmoney to on
-balance sheet model
will result in NIM contracting
.
• However, this will drive an offsetting
benefit of reduced impairment
expenses, reflecting improved lending
portfolio quality
.
• Continuing to extend best or only
product reach through digital
platforms, providing frictionless
service at each stage to provide better
customer experience.
• CTI ratio trend downwards expected
to continue, as a result of ongoing
digitalisation and automation.
Noting uncertainties associated with the
ongoing impacts of COVID
-19,
Heartland expects NPAT for FY2022 to
be in the range of $93m to $96.
\
Page 12.SHAREHOLDER RETURNS
• Return on equity (ROE) of 11.9%
(up144 bps vs FY2020).
• Earnings per share (EPS) of 14.9 cps,
up 2.4 cps compared to FY2020.
• Final dividend of 7.0 cps, up 4.5 cps on
FY2020 as pay-out ratio returns to
historical levels with easing of RBNZ
restrictions.
• Dividend yield of 7.1%.1
• Five year total shareholder return (TSR)
of 107.2%, compared with the NZX50
Index TSR of 81.9% in the same
period.
Excellent summary, thanks Percy.
The Beagle has never been known to be a politically correct animal :cool:
You'll find what you call 'politically correct', many would just call casual 'racism'.
I'd really appreciate if you gave this a watch;
https://youtu.be/g9n_UPyVR5s
What a load of crap. Always the same in this country. One side can say what they like yet the other is called a racist. Its called segregation by stealth. Happy to hold HGH regardless that they use 2 languages, 1 more helpful than the other.
Edited...let's get back to discussing Heartland.
Good thread here for discussing the things those above appear to want to do. https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...cially-divided
Deleted for being childish
Edited - Off topic
And before we get into more South Auckland bashing, it makes sense to look at the spread of COVID in the three major affected Australasian cities:
Melbourne - first recently detected in St Kilda first, moved quickly to the poor areas in the North and Northwest of the city
Sydney - first detected in the Eastern Suburbs, moved quickly to Liverpool, Canterbury, and Mr Druitt in the South West
Auckland - first detected in Devonport, moved to Grey Lynn, then quickly into South Auckland.
There are a few confounding factors here. Firstly, those in the lower paid service and labouring industries tend to take the virus from a wealthy suburb (where they work) to one less wealthy (where they live). Secondly, it spreads best in damp houses with overcrowding.
I don't know where you guys all live, but I suspect a lockdown is a lot harder in Mangere or Otahuhu than it is in Parnell or the Eastern Suburbs.
I think we need to encourage and support, not vilify, South Auckland here. Or to put it another way - this outbreak is taking longer to settle because of inequality.
That has a lot to do with HGH. Really go start a Covid Thread.
Good to see some upwards action today:t_up:
Quick update on comparison group FY22 metrics and expected average growth rate looking ahead and some comments.
NAB 15.0 3% average expected growth rate
WBC 15.8 (I need to look into the growth rate some more with this one)
ANZ 12.9 5% average expected growth
CBA 18.2 3% average expected growth (This one is consistently the most expensive on forward metrics)
BOQ 15.0 3.5% average expected growth
BEN 12.9 -3% average expected earnings contraction, (sizeable discount to NTA, price to book, could be a few issues with this one)
HGH 14.4 6% average expected earnings growth.
On those metrics ANZ and HGH look like the best value to me and I am happy to hold HGH for the fully imputed dividends that none of the other banks provide, (only very partial imputation credits, at best, with Australian banks)
Comment - I think HGH will need to use its Covid provision this year, Auckland business's are doing it very tough.
Rating Hold. Disc Holding a decent sized stake but have reduced it somewhat.
Work in progress...I need to look into WBC's future growth rate some more.
ANZ is has been a BUY for while now but CBA is the darling of the group.
Best to buy on the AUS market to take advantage of there AUS carbon climate position.
NZ banks will soon become subject to the hold excess capital requirements of the terrified RBNZ.
A few days ago I reassessed the risk and reward of the market in general and rebalanced my portfolio with a much higher cash allocation. Still hold a good sized position in HGH. Its gradually got more and more clear as the weeks have dragged on that many Auckland business's are not going to survive this lockdown and there's less and less chance of any write-back of HGH's earlier Covid loan provisioning. If anything, I am wondering if its enough ?
What many who don't live in the Auckland region don't realise is that by the end of this week, in 2021 the Auckland region will have been locked down more weeks than not ! (21 weeks locked down, 20 weeks not). That brutal reality is really confronting as is the reality such an appalling situation is a real business killer ! What's even worse is that in the last week its become clear there is no early way out of this prison sentence as the numbers in the last few days have headed northwards. No way for others to truly understand how incredibly tough the situation is in the Auckland region without living it.
I read last week that over 13,000 business's shut their doors permanently in September, (just in that one month). Sorry don't have a link.
Opps sorry, it just feels that way. I've almost forgotten what its like to enjoy normal freedoms. I misinterpreted this article that said we'd had 20 weeks so far with no end in sight.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...7PRXPJ2FZMWTY/
20 weeks includes the weeks we had last year. My point about the effect on Auckland business's stands. The Auckland region has been the sacrificial lamb with its abundance of MIQ facilities for the rest of the country. Impossible to overstate what an exhausting thing one lockdown after another after another after another after another with no end in sight for this one is like. Its just drains your batteries day after day after day after...
I've always encouraged my clients to have money set aside for a rainy day but nobody ever expected it to keep raining like this. Those without extensive back-up resources will fail and the numbers who have done exactly that are already confronting and probably just the tip of the iceberg as most will be trying to cling on by their fingernails to any glimmer of hope they can see. Will HGH's existing Covid overlay provisioning be enough to cover expected losses in the Auckland region ? That's anyone's guess, I have no way of getting a read on that.
Maybe its good for HGH and will generate heaps more loan demand as they support Auckland business's through this like HGH supported dairy farmers though the dairy crisis ? On balance it can't be a good thing lending more money to troubled business's unless the underlying security value of the assets put up for security is rock solid.
You're not wrong. You either have extensive reserves to weather this seemingly endless s***-storm or you don't. Thankfully I do but vast numbers don't.
Fortunately you can now catch up with a mate for a drink or two and a good chat so that's definitely a meaningful improvement on how it was just recently and helps to keep sane.
I do feel for businesses in general and landlords. Everyone has bills that need paying and mortgage holidays still mean the mortgage needs to get paid back. However businesses that closed down so quickly, were they ever actually viable? I find some businesses survive off the smell of an oily rag.
In saying that and I hope I sound kind with this little bit…… I have owned very successful businesses and had enough capital that I could survive for over 6 months without any injections. I always feel people draw too much money out of their business to maintain their lifestyle. If anything, businesses never learn to budget properly and I hope this is the catalyst required to make businesses owners wake up. Hopefully I am right.
You're a prudent person as I would be bold enough to suggest are most of us on here who are trying to build a decent level of financial security into their lives. Unfortunately what you say is right and the majority of people regardless of whether they're in business or not live very close too or right up to the limit of their income and then some others live beyond their income and their homes become like an ATM machine and rising prices an opportunity to make another withdrawal. In my 40 years experience as an accountant I have observed that very few people live well below their level of income.
I think for so many business's to close permanently in September this tells you they were already very badly weakened from the previous 4 lockdowns in the Auckland region and simply couldn't go on. I fear for the mental health of these people. The ones I feel sorry for the most are those that invested their life savings into opening a new hospitality business in recent times, often investing hundreds of thousands with fitout, fixtures and fittings and a new commercial kitchen. They've put everything they had on the line and have had no real opportunity to build any reserves. Very sad times for them. The hospitality industry in Auckland will be gutted out by the time this is over.
Big parcel @ $2.35 been taken out
From all accounts it’s getting harder and harder for businesses getting credit from the big banks. ANZ Business Outlook survey results say This month the worst/hardest/most difficult month ever
P
Hope Heartland and their touted ease of business lending is creaming it ….a bank that provides the needs of businesses easily
Once CCCFA is fully implimented good luck anyone getting money off the banks!
No place for fear in this market. Letting go of a few HGH the other day at $2.35 has already cost me money :blush:
Got to keep my paws off the sell button.
Oh dear. Fair point
Interesting to see Simply Wall Street https://simplywall.st/stocks/nz/bank...m_source=yahoo posting that at 2.35 HGH is undevalued by 13% = fair value guestimate of 2.70.
Was having a peruse on market screener yesterday of the aussie bank price to book ratios. Then had a look at HGH and it was a bit higher, 25bp-30bp higher. (Aside from CBA which was 100bp more than the rest.)
HGH a bit pricey?
Waiting for your dairy price correlation comment W69?
Cheap on an earnings basis, especially relative to average expectations of earnings growth in the next few years compared to their peers, see post #14,970 but as noted in subsequent posts they will take a hit from losses with Auckland business's.
Probably very close to fair value all things considered at present.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...VOUQBEGAGAANI/
Heaps more funding for Harmoney. Lending more than $100m more on an unsecured basis during a Covid crisis...what could possibly go wrong lol
Well they just sold $100m of loans taken out in a covid crisis to someone else. Now they can relend that $100m into a market emerging from a covid crisis. With libra those new loans are far cheaper to process and offer less risk of default. Sounds like good business to me.
The banks buying into HMYs securitization program is really them waving the white flag and realizing it’s better and easier to get further consumer lending exposure via HMY than going to the market with their clunky 5 day turnaround manual process.
Much the same reason why HGH securitization program is so popular (and the countries largest). Banks can buy in and get asset finance exposure without investing big into a proper asset finance division