I think though the basic business structure maybe healthy~ but proves that the industry is very volatile~ and airlines these days quite vulnerable to the environment changes...
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I think though the basic business structure maybe healthy~ but proves that the industry is very volatile~ and airlines these days quite vulnerable to the environment changes...
I see AIR has been sliding for the last three months.
announcements in the last month have included the impending puchase of four 777s, ~7% increases for the period, and the charter revenue.
could this week's slump be ethics driven, with some investors selling in protest over the charters of aussie soldiers to kuwait. To me Air's moves sound like clever grabbing of money-making opportunities.
i guess the prospect of domestic competition my be chilling to some, but let's face it, that has happened before, and when the dust has settled, Air's still flying.
sold half my holding last week, but will be watching to buy back in. Scamper.
Probably more to do with the report in today's Dom-Post (and on www.stuff.co.nz) about looming competition domestically. Story tips Pacific Blue (a Branson creation) to start flying within NZ, followed potentially by Jetstar with Tiger Air (Singapore air offshoot) another possible starter.
My comment: I find it hard to believe that there are 3 possible players looking at NZ domestic market. AIR has seen off all comers -- Ansett, Qantas and Origin Pacific, should there really be worries about any others.
I guess any competition will erode their market share, hence the price drop.
May still be flying but domestic is Air New Zealand's main, number one, primary, substantial, consistent profit centre. Domestic competition wont put them out of business but they will inevitably loose traffic and will be unable to increase yield to compensate. Virgin are cunning operators and even more cunning marketers. It has been a golden period for AIR domestic over the last 12 months but the market knowns things are about to change.
Todays 9% plunge is merely the continuation of a pre-existing downtrend. Technically, the writing has been on the wall for AIR since June, when most of the various indicators plotted here triggered simultaneous Sell signals. This chart is unusual, in that the trendline break was the last indicator to fire. Most commonly it is one of the first to be triggered, generally just after the OBV.
The chart shows how a trailing stop based on the Average True Range is slightly superior to one based on a simple percentage fall.
Current holders of this stock must be totally oblivious to the use of basic technical indicators. The OBV sell signal could hardly have been more obvious, quite apart from the confirmation provided by other indicators.
http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/AIR822.gif
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...t=1088&page=15
I hope that the above should take you to the existing thread scamper
Rob Fyfe is quick off the mark today:
http://www.nzx.com/market/market_ann...pany?id=152463
Air New Zealand Limited (NS)
AIR
22 Aug, 2007, 15:04
MONTHLYAir NZ Investor Update Issue 36 (Jul-07 Operating Stats)
CONTENTS
- July market conditions
- New aircraft deliveries
- Annual results announcements
- Company announcements
JULY MARKET CONDITIONS
July trading was strong, with 6.7% growth in passenger numbers across the Group compared to the same month in 2006.
Within this, our long-haul operations experienced significantly higher activity than in July 2006, carrying 154,000 customers (10.8% more than July 2006). Total Revenue Passenger Kilometres were 1.4 billion, an increase of 11.4% year on year.
Passenger load factor was 82.2% across the Group, an improvement of 6.2 percentage points compared to the same month last year.
Load improvements were equally pleasing in short-haul and long-haul, with improvements of 6.9% and 5.4% respectively. Short-haul load factor improvement against last year continues to reflect the rationalisation of the Tasman / Pacific Islands schedule. Stronger loads for our long-haul operation were predominantly driven by Asian routes, including Hong Kong and Shanghai.
July 2007 group-wide yields were 0.2% higher when compared with the previous period. Short-haul yields were up 3.0% on July 2006, while long-haul yields were 1.0% lower.
A summary of load factors for the month of July follows:
-Short-haul passenger load factor increased 6.9 percentage points to 78.4% when compared to July 2006.
-Domestic passenger load factor was up 2.6 percentage points to 76.3%
-Tasman / PI passenger load factor was up 8.9 percentage points to 79.5%
-Long-haul passenger load factor was up 5.4 percentage points to 85.0% when compared to July 2006.
-Asia / UK passenger load factor increased by 9.0 percentage points to 81.9%
-North America passenger load factor increased 4.4 percentage points to 87.2%
Could the slump be due to Helen Clark's bashing of Air New Zealand over the chartering? Perhaps investors are pricing in further losses due to the prospect of more government involvement in the company.
No, its to do with a very large global player entering into the domestic market as a major player.... Wouldn't read much more into it than that I reckon...
There's definitely room for another player, but will take a while for the dust to settle from this I suspect
Having said that, there are some big sellers in the market at the moment and when they have gone and when AIR announce their annual result and some new domestic initiatives next week,I think there may be a bit of a bounce in the share price. I'm back in for a while at 2 bucks.
Competition!
Pacific Blue to take off with $39 fares
| Thursday, 23 August 2007
Australian airline Pacific Blue has ushered in a new era of competition in New Zealand skies, offering $39 special fare flights on trunk routes in this country.
Flights will lift off from November 15, reporters were told today as more details were revealed about the move, which puts Pacific Blue into direct competition with Air New Zealand and Qantas.
Intitially the carrier will fly on key trunk routes: Auckland-Wellington, Auckland-Christchurch and Wellington-Christchurch.
There would be five direct daily return flights from November 15, the airline said.
The $39 fare was a special sale fare, one-way, purchased on the internet.
Hard to compete effectively with only five services a day and now the market has the facts it doesn't seem so worrried. Nice to see the share price up 4-5% on the Virgin news.
214,000,000 net profit divided by 1,051,682,560 shares = $0.203 earnings per share
804,191,058 owned by the NZ government = $163,639,574.30
divided by 4,233,889 = $38.65 NZD per New Zealander or $27.35 USD
Total GDP per capita of Malawi = $161 USD
Proportion of mean Malawian GDP represented by profit attributable to each citizen or permanent resident of NZ from the just announced AIR NZ profit: %17
I think we're doing ok