What heck going on
Now 2000 seems a bridge too far
Only another bad day to 1900 .......jez hope 1900 holds
Printable View
At least the S&P has a green arrow today
Least it didn't go below 1900 ..good sign
Friday morning before market Open: iquidity inflows had improved considerably by Thursday end of trading. Some positive fund inflows from large depositors signalled commitment to stop the market rout.
While positive Fed inflows Thursday were taken out by sheer force of selling, Fridays Fed inflows together with the large fund deposits pushed markets back into positive territory
kind regards
Hi. I came across this article today, and thought it might be of interest to others.
It talks about one of Buffets ways of measuring where the market is at, and has a few interesting graphs.
Also enjoyed the name of the author, Doug Short.
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/d...Cap-to-GDP.php
... large fund deposits confirmed by Al Cashing.
Further, 7,2b junk funds redeemed, some of which gone into government bonds = caution
... but bulk of Cash into the equity markets - small caps outperform currently
... anyway, in front of *1940_*1950 resistance, better be patient
kind regards
There's an old saying in the USA - race riots in the summer; stock market crashes in the fall
History repeating?
S&P500 to reach the magical 2,000 overnight?
Whoopee ....long may the merry go round keep going round and round
Good work Janet et al
19th July...6th August...History repeating?... or... Is it following a script being played out from the writings "There and Back Again" - A Hobbit's Tale by Bilbo Baggins ??
S&P500 closed at 1992...
2000 tomorrow you reckon Winner
Beware of the Dragon ????:mellow:
Probability of a crash is getting higher by the day using this methodology ....about 70% now
An arbitrary crash increment “C” say 25-30% of market value, a finite horizon h (in years), and the non-cyclical trajectory of the log-periodic bubble B (excluding the cosine term). Then p(crash) is the solution to the no-arbitrage condition p(crash)*C + (1-p(crash))*h*dB/dt = 0.
Mr Somette and his log time periodic advances and finite time singularities is an interesting study
Watch this as a prelude to reading stuff. Had been looking at this stuff for a while but this talk is very good. The maths is pretty geek stuff
http://www.ted.com/talks/didier_sorn...risis#t-654776
Moosie better not watch as its about knowing bubbles before they burst
Whoopee, the magical 2000 been hit
The way it's going be 2500 sooner than later ....then 3000
Hope these log time periodic advances don't lead to a finite singularity
Manat got to keep it going up to the next US election
This time it is different. Then 2500 is coming soon
http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2013/12/shiller/
Was written end of last year but still relevant
Quote: For most of history, the Shiller Cyclically-Adjusted Price-Earnings ratio (CAPE) oscillated in a pseudo sine wave around a long-term (130 year) average of 15.30. It spent 55% percent of the time above the average, and 45% of the time below–a reasonable result for a metric that allegedly mean reverts. Since 1990, however, the metric has only spent 2% of the time below its historical average–98% of the time above.
And he goes on to say that it reverts to the mean only when wars or financial disasters happen
Yes that 3000 is coming
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/mo...00-3000-2014-9
A bit wimpish call though ......will be a lot faster than they say
Belgarion, please think again about this, many of your posts are outstanding in quality, and the political threads are decaying into neo-liberal and conservative babble in your absence. Time is on our side, it'll be a different story in the next election, and it might not be three years, if National get back in.
S&P500 hit all time high of 2019 before closing down at 2010
This guy reckons that's the top for the year
I reckon 2050, if not 2100, by Xmas but what he heck do I know in comparison to these anonymous gurus who uses a non de plume based on the 'The Great Bear of Wall Street'
Stock Market Blogger 'Jesse Livermore' Is Calling The Top
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/je...014-top-2014-9
Article heading: Uh oh the credit rating agencies are up to their old tricks again.
Just a general read for those interested. The guy is saying the system hasn't changed much. Wall St only needs one credit rating agency to rate a bond, so the banks go "ratings shopping", and unsurprisingly the agency who gives the best rating gets the biz.
" One way to tell is that Fitch has only been hired for four of the 29 subprime auto ABS deals this year, after telling issuers that the vast majority of bonds did not deserve AAA ratings."
The immoral of the story, if its "cr*p" put 3 AAA's in the middle if you want the biz.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...-tricks-again/
Rising wedge + falling Volume = your guess :)
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...0019092014.png
My overall sentiment indicator made up of 4 key indicators to show advanced warnings of a possible correction is again showing high caution
Last warning was end July
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...23092014-1.png
Jesse Livermore now denying he called the top last Friday
Hoop - the Russell 2000 broken as well, after 5 1/2 years of going up
http://www.chartoftheday.com/20140924.htm?H
S&P dropped to 1966 -32 -1.62% and yep the GET OUT signal was triggered last night (NZ time) creating a high probability of a correction.....now we have to wait and see whether this is going to be another piddly-assed correction or a more "normal" 10-15% garden variety one (or worse, a cyclic reversal)...so, each day from now on will give us another small piece of info together with America media drama..A bit like a soap opera..huh?
Noodles ..Haven't had much exposure to Wall St for some time now ..due to $US devaluing (now ended?) ..but I always keep the finger on the USA pulse as I've found it prudent to keep tabs on the mental state of the Elephant in the same room as you.
The last few years most of my attention + money has been in NZ stocks..a no brainer really ...NZX rising just as good as Wall St + an appreciating NZ$ to boot...but all good things must come to an end...eh?.... NZ$ topped out? .but so far in the NZX there are many stocks singing to a different tune and holding up well compared to those Globally..so I'm still in until TA kicks me out or better opportunities arise...
... the *1973/*1970 pivot taken out on the *Close suggesting another test in the *1950/*1940 support
... running beside the current sell-off is a 'Dow theory Buy signal' (Dow fresh all time high with IMMEDIATE TRANNY support - a very rare occasion indeed)
So careful out there, this bull has shaken off weak hands many times
... am running this sell-off weighted to the long side with plenty of Cash buying the down side
kind regards
10 days later S&P down 3.5% ....was Jesse a guru with that call
Then again typical log periodic advances shoe more abrupt ups an down as it climbs so could be back to another record of 2050 in a few weeks.
So no worries?
Did read that more than half S&P stocks below their 200MA
There are 47% stocks on New York Stock Exchange above their MA200 yesterday so when Wall st closes today I assume there will be less....this is normal with Bull Market Corrections
The last time over half of the stocks where below their MA200 was nearly 2 years ago when there was a small 7% correction ...just goes to show that Wall St hasn't had a decent correction for at least 3 years...
That last decent Bull Market Correction was that Big Mother (-20%) prolonged 6 month "Cycle worry" period back in 2011..you can see the end of that period on the extreme left side of the chart where only about 10% of stocks were above there MA200.
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/a-2.png
Typical log periodic behaviour
On way back to another all time high
Shucks ....that was a bad day on US markets
Backdown to where it was a coupe of months ago
Was Jesse right after all .....long way down from 2020 is the S&P500
What's going on Hoop
Down 1% plus ...then up 1% plus ....and now almost capitulation?
Everyone who thought they were in the clear yesterday walked in today and got punched in the face," said Michael Block, chief strategist at Rhino Trading Partners.
fromm cnn money site
another quote--
"the only thing Im currently bullish on is volatility at this stage''
Seems like the dipsters may have finally got their arses kicked....eh?
Most of the correction warnings and other fundamentals from market theory have cried wolf these last couple of years... so, human nature says to ignore liars ... and the dipsters did just that and were well rewarded.....Life's a bit like this, doing all the wrong things and being rewarded for it..eh?
Its always after the big crash, we hear from the so-called Genius's that the market was well overvalued and all the signs were there,... "so what were you thinking????? Why did you get clobbered by the market??? you are an experienced enough investor not to be caught up in it at the time...so why why why???"...
When the market is roaring ahead and ignoring all the Laws of Market Physics ...do you really want to watch from the sidelines?..especially if you are a funds manager..eh?
And if you are managing funds and "all in" reaping the rewards of the roaring market, yet, knowing deep down the market is crazily overvalued...do you tell all your clients in a newsletter to sell?....No of course not, because it will take weeks months? to divest the fund..so until the divesting is complete you keep telling everyone how good the market..eh?...
Only when the divestment is complete it is safe to tell your investor clients your news...then short the market...eh? ..Carl Icahn has always been a Media bad boy but at least he's not afraid to tell his story...even though that story implies he should not be trusted....but he's not a Investor Billionaire for nothing...and these people get a lot of trusting clients...so as an untrusting fellow I ask the question what is his motive in coming out in the media now with his correction opinion??
For these answers maybe we should go back to basics and remember the fables we listened to back in Primary School... I'm not kidding!!!!
Fables are so valuable, as they are written by very wise people (ie Aesop) who knew how people behaved under various situations after experiencing these life experiences and gaining that wisdom probably at some considerable cost to themselves and then applying their wisdom to print free of charge for generations to benefit from.
The whole idea about fables was/is:--We were all told these stories by our parents grandparents or at primary school so that when we grew up we would have this wisdom which was granted to us and benefit from it without having to live through life painfully to gain that wisdom which usually is expensive ....Wisdom granted to us when we were young kids was free but sadly we gave it no value and we either forget or chose to ignore it .....and so we repeatly do (reinvent the wheel) and follow the herd to earn that same wisdom that we chose to forget the expensive way.
The fable that been visible for sometime is the S&P500 rising without a decent correction that the disciplines keep signaling these last few years is The Boy who cried Wolf (Aesop No 210).
The fable that sprung to my mind when I read the Carl Icahn article was Chicken Little a chick that believes the sky is falling when an acorn falls on its head. The chick decides to tell the King and on its journey meets other animals (mostly other fowl) which join it in the quest, and along the way a fox invites them to its lair and eats them all.
Media noise (the acorn) causing investor paranoia (Chicken Little and the cumulative group) and I will let you guess who the Fox is :D
I can see why you would rather think of Bathhurst than the DOW
This will be an interesting week coming up--i think alot of the more in the know chartists believe we are in for a correction,but that doesnt mean the worst case scenario collapse.
I think some day it will have to come though (with all the debt etc) Just depends how long they can keep patching things up to put it off for longer.
Cheaper oil ATM for you V8 fans
Yes 1910 is a long way from 2020 when Jesse called the top a week or so ago.
We hope a crash never happens but if on occurs we should not be surprised ...signs have been there for a while.
Whether his is just a 'healthy' correction and down 15% to 20% or just the early stages of a 'crash' and down 50% or more who knows. Market sentiment is a funny thing.
NZ and Aust are not immune
Just need to manage what's thrown at us on an individual stock basis. Fundamentals mean squat all in these times so capital preservation is my objective and squiggly lines will help me in this.
Here is an elliot wave perspective on where we maybe are at. i think there is a significant top in at 2020 and we will see a deep and swift correction of a major third wave 1074 - 2020.
Even if its a shallow correction we could be bottoming around 1800 if it goes a deeper could be 1650. the correction is probably going to be of 3 significant waves i think wave A will bottom quite soon around 1850 then a B wave 30 % retracement rally back up before a major C wave down into its conclusion. As the waves evolve the potential bottom can be determined more accurately.
The bull is still alive though and once the correction concludes its off to new highs, a deeper correction should allow the bull market to run longer.
Attachment 6338
possible bottom in around 1970 , maybe time for a counter trend rally back up into 1900s before another big drop.
playing with fire but worth a long !
Great article with good pictures
All about what hoop and I have been on about with these secular bulls and bears
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/lo...-ratio-2014-10
That post was written on the 26th September...
So what has happened during the last 3 weeks?....At last a decent unrestricted correction..... this time...the Dipsters acccumulating "cheap" shares in the dips + the Feds re-assurances failed to apply enough buy pressure to create an early arrest of this correction (and create another cry wolf with the correction indicators) thereby this correction has so far been allowed to continue towards its normal completion ....
Today we have seen the first upward move creating a "bottom"..The S&P500 closed at 1887 up 24 (1.30%).... So what now?....
Firstly I will mention this rare event,,,,,,,,,,a large slow moving Flash Crash, they ignore supports and resistances and all the others Laws..They have a predictable V shape behaviour .....
A healthy Bull market correction exhibit the same behavioural patterns (Laws) as Bear market cycles except the duration is much shorter term...
The Elliot wave discipline presumes this investor behaviour with 3 waves ...initial "worry" correction such as that the price is overbought. .. "relief" rally .... followed by an "uncertainty" correction, and so on as this investor behaviour cycle may repeat....repeated "uncertainty corrections can produce enough investor fear to create panic selling..
So Questions...
Has the Bull market Cycle ended? ...too early to tell.
Has the bull market correction ended?..too early to tell....This correction is 10% so far ..it's very possible it can be bigger than this...
Is it a flash crash with its acute V-shape recovery signature...too early to tell ...(easily busting the 1895 Fib and 1905/10 resistances are the first requirements)
Not much help..huh?...so how can we evaluate this situation?....
Remember corrections are mini-me bear cycles, so this present market should follow the behaviour as mentioned above...relief rallies in bear cycles are sucker rallies so beware..Why???..When traders find and enters a near bottom and ride the rally upwards they all have preplanned exit strategies..the most simple viewpoint for us Plebs is to remember how significantly important the Support and Resistance lines on a chart become..Therefore all eyes will be on that 1905/1910 resistance line...If the S&P500 fails to break through that resistance point, then the traders will be exiting here and take their quick profits as this is the only way for them to make profits in a bear cycle by using those Bear Market investing disciplines...
This of course makes for a self-fulifilling sucker rally prophesy and the Fundies are quick to argue this and that the market has then become irrational and running due to the technicals...During Bull market corrections however traders realise this all could be temporary,,but if there is any cyclic reversal doubts lingering in the groups sub-conscious then the traders may view this bull market cycle correction as a much longer event, at least until those doubts are extinguished..which could take many months or longer..
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...0017102014.png
Hussman still convinced a crash to come sometime
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc141020.htm
I mention large down-days for a reason. A market crash comprises of a series of one-day losses that may be large, but are not particularly extraordinary in and of themselves. The problem is that they tend to occur in sequence rather than independently
On fire today
2000 beckons ------>>>>>>> then on to 2030 an a new HIGH
That scenario Winner is looking increasingly likely..
With the S&P500 at 1942 The technicals have showed resistance break throughs...this indicates that this rally has a good chance of being a genuine rally and not the sucker type ..So far this implies that this correction is more likely another one of the bull market variety...The most significant resistance lines that were broken was the bull bear line 1905/10 and its confirmation line at 1925/30 (dashed orange line)...
Why the v-shaped correction?...These are stampede type actions and can be triggered by any small insignificant (may be unrelated) event(s)...It shows the market had (having) an underlying nervous feeling..Flash corrections can settle the markets anxieties when it can be seen in hindsight that the fear invoked action was an unwarranted and a quick rally fills in the correction..At the moment the start of good earnings news has settled some of those overvalued market anxieties for now...and the complacent feel good factor is returning..
As this market seemed to have reacted with irrational speed (stampede), the Fibonacci (instinct behaviour) indicators become more relevant...The 61.8% fib retracement is at 1945 so care is still needed as 61.8 is a major life number
The tech traders will still be in as they have watched each resistance break...their eyes will now be focused on the next 2 hurdles,, the 1945 Fib then the 1960/70 area...any resistance problems will see these guys take their profits and exit the market and the index will tank..Us plebs knowing where these anxiety index levels (resistance) are, gives us valuable warning sign areas so to be careful, alert and have better information to assess the longer term direction of the market...A bit like road signs on a highway..eh?
Its a day by day thing at the moment...and so far the S&P500 is looking good..
Thankyou ..It alway a great to get a comment like that from a Psychic ;):D
Well...maybe I posted one day too soon....as the S&P500 not looking that great today, but, still odds on being bullish....just!!! ..Hmmm ...Dead cat bounce?.. I do like doing dead cat trading ..its fun...but I have only done it in the NZX...
It seemed the market struck Fib resistance problems and started a technical sell off back to the 1927 close..This 1927 (1930) is the bull bear confirmation line so the S&P500 has thrown back to test this now support area...Throw backs are common events that test recent break through S&R lines or chart pattern breakouts.. it gives investors a second chance to enter the market....... however today the timing (the close) has interrupted the momentum so we have to wait until tomorrow to see whether buyers (having 16 hours to think about it) will return and create a bounce off this support area...
Ananda..best of luck going long..and being bullish for the next 18+ months...you may need it:)
Hmmm..The more I think about this rally the more downbeat I feel about it...Dead cats and all..
Not that clued up on Elliott Waves...Could this rally still be the B wave?.. Dumbass?
i think we are still in the B wave and this is most likely just the first leg of it, intermediate A of a 3 leg major B.
i think this rally ( intermediate A ) is going to end pretty soon around the 1950 - 1960 area and then down to 1900 or 1860 ( intermediate B ) then the final wave up intermediate C to
complete major B, before all hell breaks loose, 1600s.
still following this trading plan until its wrong !
Yes it does ...waving around the middle of the SD(2) channel with small changes (corrections)..If this correction is over it will be another unhealthy small correction although this one was more dramatic..eh?..
And yes as you say Winner 2050 by Xmas seems to be the way its projecting to be..
I'm searching for short term technical tibits for subtle very early signs of a cycle reversal...there's probably none and I'm just seeing imaginary demons.... but searching for them at this mature stage of the Bull market cycle is fun....
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...0022102014.png
ahh haa...yeah I did interpret your original post differently.....so you think there's a topping out of the cycle close by?
Well we are nearly there (1950-1960) with the 1949 close today (resting on its new support)..Interesting thing on my day chart is it topped out at 1962....there's not any charted resistance here so why turn around at this point (1962)... did it tested and failed a near MA50 (1966) area or wave top?...
Well you Plan A is still operating :)..if Plan A stays on track then it will break Winners log chart upward channel..He won't be pleased.;)
Don't forget these log periodic waves end in finite time singularity (fancy words for 'blow off' / crash I think)
Didier also said this early this year "equities are expensive, and prices have been propped up by central banks’ easing policies. But the big correction, when it comes, will be triggered by a major political or social event induced when bubbles, driven by the QE everywhere, reach maturity and global instability rises.”
I just keeping close eye on things and if it all does happen like this get out quick
I agree Winner...we have said this and outlined many systemic points of view on the other thread..In theory ..much of the global system (major powers) looked warped due to a few sub systems hijacked by the Central banks..QE is the Fad this century ..QE is regulatory so it blocks communication channels among some of the overall systems nervous system...the longer those channels are blocked the worse the mess ( Overall system correction..Equities is only a small cog in this systemic wheel) when these sub-systems unblock...It would surprise me if the Butterfly Effect happens...
Yep, realise it early and get out quick...thats what is taking up my time on this thread..finding early indicator warnings...never know this researching time may become very valuable at some point in the future..eh?...
Until then lets party :D
Yes Hoop, I think the SPX500 topped and will bottom out in 2016. This is why I think current rally will re-test the Highs but fail to make new Highs. Big buy opportunity coming up
kind regards
Hi Hoop
... of course, the market can power through to new Highs in which case the current long weighted strategy remains unchanged - the rest is playing around with different long/short exposure levels
... important really was not to change the long weighted set-up into the drastic sell-off
kind regards
A screenshot from MarketWatch today with a 2 page summary on its site
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...0029102014.png
S&P at 2000 tomorrow .... great
IMHO cheap oil has replaced easy money (QE) Right now its a stand off ,but sooner or later someone will have to blink (as the price is below production costs)and when oil goes back up (with no QE to fall back on) we could see some speed bumps in this easy ride.
...the NDX and SPX500 and ASX200 >super, super overbought in the daily (amazing in a period of just under two weeks) - amazing volitility
...good value in the Asian markets (STILL today)
...would be careful into the weekend, take some profits and run a more balanced trading portfolio - at least after a potential run -up to new Highs tonight. the market needs some sort of consolidation
...JUST IDEAS
kind regards
Hi Karlos
Naughty naughty..you can't claim that credit and can't claim knowing other peoples emotional status either...but it was a try Karlos :D..As a consolation prize You were right this time on your longer term outlook as it reached a new high so the recent action was a correction rather than cyclic reversal...
.......but did you know that when the indexes reach new highs yesterday..it was abnormal.... historically speaking a record index highs normally sees the majority (80%+) of stocks above their MA200....so far with this new index high the majority of Stocks above their MA200 is only at 58%.....Therefore so far this latest rally is not (yet?) broad based...
.
Me Worried??..No..I just watch the market moves and post it...My discipline is Technical Analysis which is void of emotion ...Theory says Emotion Kills... and worry is an emotion.
Hope your weekend is still good..
ohhh.off topic..Have you seen the movie Stretch...I loved it..full of black humour and some bizzarre characters...The "Hoff" played himself as a fictionalised "very rich hit man type "heavy" in a 5 minute appearance..Loved his non stop threatening rant.."..........and do you think I got to where I am now today by starring in Baywatch????.............":D
Still looking good
2100 beckons next week
Hoop, 2050 next week,a bit of a dip to 2000 and then 2100 by xmas?
That's how I see it anyway
It seems that way Winner...Mr Market is in a exuberant mood so its still party time...and...they say you're gotta be in to win
Well Hussman is continuing to wring his hands in despair as his fundamental analysis (assuming cycles and mean reversions) is being ignored by Mr Market
While Mr Market ignores the Fundamentals..Hussman is resorting to use this well worn statement "...Over the short run, market returns are driven by mindset, but ultimately, they are driven by valuation..."
Back to Market Sanity and common sense...Hussman's results are very very scary...and as cycles are cycles there will be at some point in time a mean reversion...
His ending paragraph... ".... under current conditions, we view the investment environment for stocks as being among a handful of the most hostile points in history...."
and as it's always the case in an exuberant phase within the last stage bull market cycle ..no one listens or cares..
Hussman Funds Weekly Market Comment 10th November 2014
What Secular Bull??
I'm still in the Secular Bear Market Cycle camp ..I'm one of the unknown plebs within some esteem company..Hussman Shiller, Mauldin and co :D...This secular bear market cycle is 14 years old now and it's secular traits is an overall downtrending annualised PE Ratio back to below 10...The ending of this Secular Bear is due to distance back to below 10 it is not time related nor measured by the trending movement in the S&P500 price index ...The Secular Bear Market Cycle is solely measured by the long term trending movement of the annualised PE Ratio...now at 26 and due for the next move down,,,eh?
OK Hoop, fair enough. Next time am not gonna mention 'secular'
kind regards
...all markets feel very artificial at present - all over the place to put it mildly
... difficult, if not impossible to follow any sort of technical set up
...re: strategy: not blinking, keeping detached, exploit differences in market potential
... the market will move one way or the other opening up
kind regards
Hoop, I see we got to 2050
This guy usually a bear but he reckons next stop is 2250
http://www.gmo.com/websitecontent/GM..._3Q14_full.pdf
Read Bubble Watch article
Hoop 2100 beckons next week
This is amazing stuff
If this was a stock would you buy it?
It's interesting if you look over the S&P 500 Index over a 20 year period:
28 Nov 1994: 454.16
28 Nov 2014: 2,067.56
Period: 20 years
That gives a compound annual growth rate of 7.87%, which is not over the top. If anything, it's pretty ordinary. It's when the commentators shorten the time frame to the trough of the last stock market fall does it look like the market has had over-the-top returns:
28 Nov 2008: 896.24
28 Nov 2014: 2,067.56
Period: 6 years
This timeframe gives an annual compound return of 14.95% which would seem very heady indeed.
Now I have no idea whether the market is at a top or not. Being a long-term investor, I just want to own excellent businesses that pay ever-increasing dividends. If the market crashes (as it will inevitably do in the future, just like it has in the past), I'll still sleep tight knowing that the majority of my investment funds is invested in businesses such as Johnson & Johnson, 3M, Procter & Gamble, Colgate Palmolive, American Express, Wells Fargo, McCormick etc.
I found this interesting --another of the many points of view
http://money.cnn.com/2014/12/03/inve...sks/index.html
Boring .....sometimes he return over 30 years is zilch ....ayb the next 30 years
http://www.theburningplatform.com/20...et-bah-humbug/
Hey Winner, in my 25 year long-term investment career, numerous articles just like these get written and circulated.
In many instances (but not in the one you've posted), they're perpetrated by Wall Street institutions who push their case forward for timing the markets, generating churn and lucrative trading commissions. Other times it's just to get eyeballs on the page (or site). For those who have a passion for long-term investing and get a buzz out of owning a portfolio of sound businesses, it's not a cause for concern at all.
This is because:
1. The data points chosen in these articles have been data mined to perfection. In this case, the S&P 500 index was used between periods 1954 to 1984.
2. In real life, achieving a 0% return over 30 years in the market is highly improbable. That's because it's very unlikely that you make a one-time lump some investment in the markets during times like 1954 and hold until 1984 without ever investing a cent more during that period. Most long-term investors make periodic investments throughout their investment career, hopefully putting money to work when markets are both historically high or low.
3. The indices quoted are capital indices, so they don't take into account the effect of dividends. Dividends account for a significant proportion of total return in the markets. According to S&P, dividends account of about 33% of total equity returns. Excluding the effect of dividend returns over a 30 year period by quoting a capital index is misleading.
4. Even if a newly retired individual sunk their entire savings into the market (e.g S&P 500 index) in 1954, they still would have at least gotten a cash return from dividends. The dividend amounts from many top blue chip companies usually increase year on year. In practical reality, this scenario wouldn't happen anyway because retirees (with a clue) spread their investment holdings across shares, fixed interest and cash.
So these types of articles are an interesting academic exercise only.
for those long-term investors on this site, the real key is to just get out of your own way. Become successful despite your own judgemental and behavioural biases. It took the first 10 years of my investing career to really come to terms with that. I can now appreciate Charlie Munger's words "Investing is where you find a few great companies and then sit on your ass".
I will admit that long-term buy and hold investing is not for everyone. You really have to have a passion for analysing business models and financials.
Maybe that's why I'm hooked on watching "Shark Tank" and "The Profit".
S&P500 closed this morning (10am NZtime) on its lows at 2026 (-34) -1.64%
The media are making bear noises again.
My correction indicator shows no warnings yet
1990 down -12 all 4 correction warnings indicators fired......Get Out warning triggered....
Will it be a shallow, mild, or severe bull market cycle correction .......and/or a reversal to bear market cycle......you pick:mellow:
I found a recent photo of Hoop for those of you who follow his posts.
https://static.fjcdn.com/pictures/Be...385_769380.jpg
...market likely to jingle rock into *2030_*2040 resistance before exhausting
...after that, not sure but possible, another down leg to test the *1970 support again
... after that it's jingle bells, jingle bells all the way into January 2015
... bite me if am wrong, but these days traditional indicators are quite useless as said before
... please be careful, high risk in progress
kind regards
Merry Xmas and prosperous New Year
.... make sure to lock in those sweetie prices at the pumps
kind regards
You wrote this post when the S&P bounced back to be up a huge 2% intraday.....whats your take on TA now Ananda that the +2% has capitulated into another near -1% down day as I type..
Many investors that dived in this morning (on the European relief bounce) ignoring their Wall St TA correction warnings just got their arses flamed big time...
My Correction warnings is still 100% accurate..its just the corrections in the past have been shallow (Stage 3 bull market signature) and the correction indicator therefore perceived as worthless..
As this Bull cycle progresses my and other TA correction warnings systems should be still viewed as a period to operate with caution, not a sign to continue playing Russian Roulette...by once again diving in with the first glimmer of light as happened today...
All TA correction warning systems alert that the market has developed elevated risk..this was ignored today...so serves them right...
Unfortunately for the overall market this will remove some buying pressure as there has been an evaporation of available money today..... and available money is needed to drive a market higher
No Probs from me Ananda...I enjoy your views and we all learn from differing viewpoints....
Have you noticed the FED has once again become vocal and talked the market up yet again...Crafty lot these FEDs, they chip in when the market hits weakness and talk it back up though key resistance areas.(S&P500 just broken MA50 resistance)..Will the market fall for this FED ploy..again?