What are the financial numbers? Not interested in test results and other fluff, more interested to see what they are selling from their current product range.
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That maybe true Sparky, but posting a picture of a large building tells me nothing as an investor. Do they own the building and was it prudent to spend money on this over their obvoius need for sales and marketing attention... or are they refitting 2 rooms/floors etc? What was the capital outlay and ROI?
Since there are three of them and are obvious superstars, it interests me why they chose PEB over other obvious companies that would love to have them due to their impressive achievements.
I see alot of companies fail in the USA and this is because they cant sell. I hope they are an exception.
A little patience will be rewarded Schrodinger.
We are all genuinely interested in seeing PEB prosper, and it should be an interesting watch over the next three months leading up to PEB's first half year report on US sales.
The share market leads sales performance and reacts if that performance does not unfold. We should start to see the market beginning to back the company now and build in some anticipation of an adequate HY14 sales report.
With five years of growth ahead, it's all up from here.
I'm pretty sure it's been mentioned in one of their previous reports that they are one of the people leasing space in that building.
Also it's at the Hershey Research Center amongst numerous other medical companies. Interestingly (to me at least) Jack Atchason who is listed as Director of Strategic Accounts for PEDUSA is actually Executive Director at the Hershey Research Center so while working at PEDUSA isn't his only job he's going to have some pretty solid contacts in the industry and hopefully experience with other companies in PEDUSAs situation. I'd say the fact he chose PEB over "other obvious companies" shows he thinks they have a good shot at success.
The presentation that was given at the agm was perfectly adequate to me. Sure it was'nt some slick glossy piece of spin put out by a comminications division or PR firm, but I've seen plenty of those over the years and I know which I would rather have.
The amount of floor space leased in the Hershey building, the cost of the fitout, potential additional space has all been previously disclosed by Pacific Edge.
I find it heartening reading through the history of the ASX listed Prana Bio (pbt) and seeing the positive differences and same strengths as that of PEB. While the products that companies provide are totally different I do get the feeling that PEB have truly cracked the large hurdles of commercialisation and positive clinical trials. To me this provides the company with a tangible way forward which we are about to start seeing.PEB certainly have kept their cards close to their chest which for me is only strengthening my support.
Todays NBR has an article on Pacific Edge in their Margin Call column written by David Williams.
It does'nt appear to be available online but its hardcopy edition is probably worth a read, although there is nothing particularly new being revealed.
It mentions the recently completed DHB user programmes, Canterbury and Waitemata, and that David Darling has met with Tony Ryall this week for the second time. Also mentions a customer in the US who is about to embark on the user programme and whose size is roughly three times the size of all the NZ health boards combined.
Fantastic news thanks Barney, I'm off to buy a copy.
Hopefully a market announcement will soon follow, they would seem to be market appropriate announcements given PEB's stage in business.
Isn't the market in NZ about 15k tests a year? 3 times this is 45k tests... jeez if PEB pull that one off it will be a massive coup! At that rate they would move their books from being in the red to black and some!
and the Intrinsic Value would be around $3.00 IF it happens
using Johnny the Horses post from way back which had a table that indicated (45000tests x $550.00)
=$24750000 revenue would give an IV above 3.00. I believe this table was constructed from the projected 5 year plan. As far as I'm aware this hasn't been called to task so far.
Sounds good. Any indications of insider trading on the market?
Well, unless the seller of 50k or 100 k each and every open and close since last week is an insider, no.....
User programmes are great and essential to sales but lets not get too excited yet. The programmes can run for extended periods. I'd like to see multiple potential clients before throwing a party.
Lol, yes I thought you already knew the answer Schrodinger.....:t_up:
do you have any numbers of your own for this matter? It would be a privilege to be able to compare them.Again with all due respect I assume you would be taking a much lesser stance .Apologies if this is incorrect
I’d like to offer a balancing view paper tiger if I may for thought and discussion, we all have differing risk appetites after all.
PEB seem to me to be de-risking steadily, first sales achieved, regulatory approvals in place, laboratories constructed on budget/schedule, trials achieved with DHB’s and prospectively now with US counterparts, technology risk is dropping away as those trials in application provide better than anticipated results.
Yes, there are still risks yet to be concluded and some that will be on-going as for all businesses, competitors exist although none are anywhere close to being market ready, saleability and price point, ability to break existing NMP22 technology entrenchment and loyalties.
The only significant difficulty I personally have is not having direct access to good market data so it’s hard to self-assess, but this seems to be an industry issue, health professionals don’t give much away, it’s a patient confidentially culture.
The sales strategy that PEB has revealed seems to be intelligent and comprehensive as does the market research provided by them.
My view is that the projected sales and $100M revenue curve is looking more and more achievable and attractive every day that goes by.
My present fully de-risked valuation on that revenue stream is $1.25
It may now just take one good US contract announcement and a five year uptrend may commence.
for those watching this debate with Paper Tiger the posts in question are peb 654 through 661
This fascinates me, it appears we are on the cusp of good sales in the US and NZ, yet the market response is to sell!
I am guessing that not many people read the NBR article then?
It is interesting blobbles. It seemed that what we saw last week was a strategic breakdown of technical levels on no news, also we’ve seen sell downs at the close each day this week. Could well be a large player forcing the market down for a better entry point, just because they can. Still it's just short term noise, with fundamentals like these a positive announcement will turn matters around real quick.
Crumbs, I hope you picked a few of those up at the time Hancock’s, they’re only up 110% ?.
There's not actually been a lot of volume in the selling in the last few days, no disclosures, not much on the morningstar site either.
http://investors.morningstar.com/own...&culture=en-US
still silly old them
Attachment 4769
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Below job add posted today - note highlighted new products " state of the art cancer management products". Seems a natural progression from the diagnostic tools - not sure if this has been disclosed before (surprised if it hasn't).
Ref /Job ID: 88386796438C02E7 / 5952385 Industry: Science, Technology, R&D, Biotech Company:Pacific Edge Limited Location:Australia Australia 0 - 0 Type: Full Time Advertiser: Agency Posted: 31-08-2013 Closing: 07-09-2013
Pacific Edge Limited is a Dunedin-based biomedical company specialisingin the development and commercialisation of diagnostics and prognostics for arange of cancers including bladder, colorectal and gastric. The Company hascompleted a successful international multicenter clinical trial for its bladdercancer detection test Cxbladder. The Company’s colorectal cancer prognosticgene signature has also recently successfully completed its clinical trial inEurope. Pacific Edge Limited has nowmoved to commercialise these products into global markets. As part of ourdevelopment and growth strategy Pacific Edge Limited has formed aninternational network of collaborations and alliances with research institutesand companies in Australasia, North America, Europe and Asia. The Company isnow seeking to appoint a top-level scientist who will be considered critical indeveloping and implementing the Company’s clinical program for moleculardiagnostic testing and contribute to thevision of developing state of the art cancer management products. Thesuccessful candidate will join a commercial, product-focused team in anenvironment where communication and collaboration are essential. You will beinvolved in all facets of the clinical program development including buildingline extensions to existing products, implementation of product pipelines andevaluating novel molecular diagnostics tests in a commercial laboratorysetting. Specifically applicants will have: • PhD in a relevant sciencediscipline with a minimum of 4 years post doctoral experience • Proven abilityto plan, execute and report scientific clinical studies • Experience with therunning of human clinical trials • A knowledge of or strong interest inclinical diagnostics • Ability to communicate fluently verbally and in writingto a wide variety of stakeholders, including physicians • Ability to performwell as a member of a team as well as showing leadership in areas of primaryresponsibility • Flexible can-do attitude • A willingness and aptitude to help turnscientific ideas into commercial reality. It would be advantageous forapplicants to have: • A knowledge of the regulatory environment for clinicallaboratories • Experience with bio resource collections (Bio Banks) We areoffering an exciting and challenging job with a competitive salary commensuratewith experience and skills. Pacific Edge Limited is based in Dunedin in closeproximity to the University of Otago and the successful candidate will beworking with a professional team in a great working environment.
Perhaps someone from the health sector can assist ?
At the AGM David Darling advised that PEB are presently selling in the US at a price point of $550 per test, and I’m still trying to interpret what this actually means. This is at the lower end of the 2011 capital raising guidance of $550 to $630.
A common sales and marketing strategy is to offer ‘trials’ at a lower price, once both parties are satisfied with the results, sales may continue at a normal (higher) price point, let’s say $630 per test.
Or, is this not a customary sales practice in the health sector ?
So we may also have some sort of a wholesale / retail thing going on also ?. I guess that may mean that direct sales to the US insurers may then come at a higher price point.
I'm actually very encouraged that PEB are presently "in discussion" with their first US customer, the fact that PEB are prepared to publicly declare this suggests they are confident it will indeed happen. And, being roughly three times the size of all NZ DHB’s combined, well need we say more.
I'm increasingly becoming more bullish, it seems that after years of kicking around the lab we are at the tipping point of sales exploding now.
Even just having a few LUG's under trial would represent huge sales volumes.
Don't wait too long baller... not sure how long it will be before the general public realise they are on the cusp of big sales. Hopefully a bit longer (and the price falls a bit more!) so I can top up at stupid prices too!
There was continued selling on the close Friday, this time with a 500k parcel lobbed out.
probably the same seller we have seen all week. Watch the open and close to see if they are still exiting in 50, 100, and now 500k parcels
my concern is it must be one of the larger holders (who still lobbed out after the NBR reported comments) What do they know?, but then what do I know, lol
the 60 cent capper has come down to market I suspect, but it's only conjecture on my part.
would that buyer of 333,333 the other week like to step up for another 555,555. Lucky for some.....
Two good unreliable indicators of stock market probability this morning, much more light and agricultural aircraft traffic recently and hemlines are definitely on the rise.:)
Sparky, I'll bet your nose was pulsing like a strobe light :t_up:
Came across this during surfing activity.
Dont know if it actually is of great interest to everyone, however it does mention Pacific Edge and assisting them with a number of third party health organisations.
www.bowieyorke.co.nz/Ourwork.aspx
That is interesting Major
“Preparing and negotiating agreements relating to PEL’s expansion into the US market, including services agreements, consultancy agreements, and website and privacy terms”
Lawyers can’t negotiate agreement(s) unless it’s all actually happening behind the scenes and on the cards.
As mentioned, someone is clearly selling down. Parcels of 100k being released right now. At a guess I would say they have sold maybe 1.5 million so far (assuming there aren't a few large sellers). Would be interesting to know who it is, anybody have access to a shareholder list?
Could be BT Funds, all the others seem to be buying ?
http://investors.morningstar.com/own...&culture=en-US
Not too sure if I am correct, but 50 cents always gets filled at the end of the day.
I'm topping up at these levels
I am wondering if eventually the big seller will go under 50 cents...
Probably until the first batch of outstanding news from the US.
re#2152
Yes and why not. Its a good gain -take it. We dont mind if you leave lots on the table.
Heres another bit I stumbled over,
www.ebdgroup.com/bts/presenters/prs_comps.php
Have had a quick look- Biodesix, Bioniche, Diagnoplex and Kinemed seem to be in a fairly closely related area. There may be others but most in the list seem to be concerned with treatment rather than diagnostics. Seems there is another showcase January 2014 in San Francisco.
Could also be any one of the overseas holders who might be selling NZ Inc due to the currency falling. Doesn't have to be PEB specific.
could be Hancocks?
Could be me? (but its not)
perhaps Balance would care to divulge........he has stated its a single huge seller in post #2152
Suppose we can look at a we find it you fix it partnership along the way- there is a lot going on out there.
Sorry about the minor problem but I made it miner(as I have NTL) to stop conflicting with MVT. Vince was very helpful in sorting this out. Perhaps I should have made it mynah or perhaps birdynumnums which I use elsewhere. Peter Sellars was the tops.
Disc: me neither, are you out of your tree, last man standing, roll on 2015
I doubled my holding today, time will tell if it's another bad decision, I know one should not average down. I seem to have made a lot of bad decisions re NZ sharemarket last couple of months.
Can I suggest not to reflect too toughly on yourself. I believe if the Company you are investing in is fundamentally sound, with great prospects on the horizon and is making all the right commercial decisions, then go ahead and invest.
I also believe a lot of the problems with the NZ sharemarket stem from it being so very small in size. This makes it possible for deep pocketed entities to influence what happens in a particular Company's share price. Also QOH, there seems to be a lot of very small investors/traders who are very risk averse and/or nervous nellies who have their finger on the sell trigger. They can also unwittingly (or wittingly) influence the share price. IMHO, these people should go back to a fixed interest investment as they do more damage than good. This is further demonstrated when you see investors/traders (buyers) hanging out for .001 gain.
I have had a good size holding in PEB for about the last 3 years and see no reason to sell. They tick the boxes for me and like all investments ... time will tell! At least PEB looks like it is going to make some decent money ... when the share price I am sure will then reflect (in that order) ... unlike others that have it round the wrong way at present.
if you are referring to dil and xro then I quite agree ,Dentie. It seems the potential of PEB is by no means built into its share price currently. Once a few main players cotton on things could look a little different.
Relax, holders.
Think of those who went into the IPO, had faith and rode this company to where it is today.
Do i sense that anyone of them are rubbing their worry balls with vigor?
I do sense however that PEB has shifted its focus to getting the business now underway and allowing the sp in the short term to find its own level. The right thing to do but could be bumpy for the stock as there are many traders now in the stock.
No shooting to be done here Turmeric. For me, sales is one thing BUT profit & cash are the important factor. I have witnessed plenty of firms with heaps of sales...but if there is no cash & profits following, then there is an inevitable implosion that follows. Look at the revenue Bear Stearns was generating and unnamed insurance companies .... plenty on the top line, but nothing of value on the bottom line.
Edit: Shareholders will only keep tossing in their dosh to make up the numbers for so long!
so based on that can we assume that if PEB can factor in not only sales, fast growth, more potential AND turn a PROFIT then the bar will be raised from high jump to pole vault:)
You are right. If PEB can start making sales, its price may rocket ahead, much like DIL and XRO factoring in their US facility running at capacity.
I think PEB has the ability to increase quickly, if it shows some early big wins. Wait too long and you may miss out - risk vs reward.
.........ah NOT made sales yet??............what planet did you get that info from Tumeric??........PLUS they wil be making making these sales (naturally) showing a GROSS profit......otherwise why would they bother........NET profit well that's another thing entirely. HOLDER.
......exactly MOOSIE......runs on the board.......possibly hundreds already I would be picking??
er, not quite , moosie - they made a milestone payment of 1,084,622 shares in PEB for the start of the sales drive in the USA on July 1st. I dont think that means a sale has to have occurred. Royalties will be paid semi annually from that point as I understand it. Will be watching the Cellmid site as well from here on in.
1,084,622 shares in PEB in addition to royalties has a nice ring to it dont you think?:)
Disc:Holding both
A couple of more points Turmeric...
1. My comment about Shareholders tossing in dosh was more about the likes of XRO relying on selected big s/holders (eg Thiel) putting in large amounts of direct funds to provide working capital until such time as the business can generate its own working capital - through profits hopefully. Whereas PEB is being supported by a wide range of smaller shareholders - meaning their capital base is more diversified and not as risky. That is, what would be the result if Thiel & his ilk lost confidence and pulled everything out?
2. The point I am trying to make in terms of sales revenue vs profitability (& cash), is that if PEB currently had the amount of (relative) customer base that XRO is currently trumpeting, they would be very much more profitable than XRO. It is on this basis that I can't understand the difference in the share price between the two.
I think PEB are going to be very well placed once their customer base and revenue stream has begun to get momentum.
Do all the buyers now know the big seller dumps his shares at 50cents?
Is that why no one is buying today?
Hi TUMERIC.......yep sorry might have been reading that out of context! My sales figures are confidential (as Ive made them up) but I guess I can tell you (confidentially of course) that they have sold more than one test so far.....keep it to yourself but I always talk in hundreds......you work it out!......AND on top of that figure I believe the sales growth will be exponential........ie hundreds and hundreds then quickly thousands per annum..........MUMS THE WORD!!
I'm not overly sure if we are going to see any sales at all from PEBUSA in the next report. "User Programmes" aren't regarded as sales surely and I think one of the reports stated that "user programmes" were conducted over 6-12 months. I'd be happy if PEB were to report on a steady uptake of the test in New Zealand with more word waiting on usa pathways. The difficult thing would be the market all ready factoring in large potential turnover on word that USA clients have agreed to take on the product.
Might I suggest that if Messrs Darling et al read these posts they would be having a quiet chuckle but I bet they are too busy getting the show on the road.
Such is the difficulty isn't it Hancock's.
PEB neither provide numerical guidance, nor do they provide adequate information to the market for confident independent analysis.
I don't think it's a case of too many scientists and too few business folk, it's just a part of their management and company maturing from being a provincial laboratory in Dunedin to being an international going concern.
One of the potential issues for PEB in not being open is that the SP going forward may become very volatile indeed as the market starts to anticipate forward sales in the tens of thousands over the next couple of years rather than in the hundreds as at present.
I suspect the company will stay undervalued until we see year on year sales growth. As this is the base year (half year really) for the US, I would also suggest guessing sales numbers is like throwing a dart at a dart board three times and multiplying the numbers together - in other words pointless!
Right now all we have is market size numbers and very positive sounds.
"PEB neither provide numerical guidance, nor do they provide adequate information to the market for confident independent analysis." (Mac)"
Not quite,
Page 19 of 2013 annual report quote "We have estimated that this business could generate gross revenue for pacific Edge in excess of $100 mil by the end of our 5th year of trading in the USA."
At the AGM David Darling confirmed that PEB is on track to reach this expectation.
I know 5 years is a long time but this company is aiming for great things.
Is there another big seller dumping their shares at 49cents?
Does this year count as the first year?
As I understand it the first sales have been made in the US. After the AGM I had a conversation with David Darling and a separate conversation with Chris Swann (Chairman) and I can tell you that both gave me confidence that this company is likely to accomplish what it is setting out to achieve.
I questioned them about the balance of scientist and more business orientated direction of the company and was happy with their answers.
Why do they all dump it at the end of the day? So it doesn't look bad dumping it during trading hours?
[QUOTE=Hancocks;425928]Why do funds or people sell, no conspiracy theory, just business?
I reckon that those who sell think their money will be more productive elsewhere. In that circumstance they have decided they should not piss about, and sit pat hoping for a dead cat bounce or some other stroke of luck, and be fatalistic and get what they can right away.
NZ Central Securities is owned by the RBNZ, and acts as a custodial trustee for thousands of local and foreign holders. So, Hancocks, I think you would probably be right in guessing that's where they are coming from. Unfortunately, that doesn't help much!
not to worry, they will be going to good homes. There was another block crossing at 5.05 pm at 49 as well, but that may have just been the bulk of the original parcel being flicked on to a final buyer by the broker who likely took on the parcel in their own name (we will never really know, but I like to hazard a guess)
baller, most funds and institutions like to execute orders in the opening and closing auctions, as it allows true price discovery with better liquidity than can be found during the day
but note, this trade today was an offmarket transaction between willing buyer/seller for a good volume (4.04pm)
Yep, we've been commenting on it every day, 50's, then 100's, then 500, and now 1mill
more volume as the price goes lower
my take is buyers happier sub 50, seller has urgency?
IMHO, there are those who earn their dosh in a respective way and understand what it represents and there are others who come into money without having earned it and therefore don't respect its value. For some, money is a kind of toy that they have fun with and when they've finished playing with it, they simply get rid of it and move onto something else. They don't think in terms of yield, capital gain or loss etc..........they just make decisions in a haphazard way. For the rest of us, who are trying to eke out a comfortable living for ourselves - in some sort of methodical and rational manner...well, we just gotta either suck it up or get out and do something else.
I gave up trying to understand why people make the financial based decisions that they do - a long time ago. In this current round of selling, I just think the positive way and thank the seller for providing a good amount of liquidity for those that see a great opportunity not too far ahead now. Maybe the seller is being philanthropic and doesn't need to make more millions?
understand this, price and volume action has shown those who care to observe, that someone is a keen seller. Buyers with any commercial nous will wait for the seller to 'come' to their price, and not pay up to the sellers offer. Hence a lot went through at 50, not higher, and then an offmarket buyer was only prepared to pay 49 for a 1m parcel
thats the market
works the other way when buyers are keener than sellers
Always remember Brian Henry offloading millions of DIL shares at under 50 cents -m scared the hell out of the traders and nervous nellies, but Milford and a few other shrewd investors took the opportunity to load up.
People sell for all kinds of reasons - the initial reaction of the market to any aggressive selling is that there's something the seller knows which nobody else does. And fair enough too - I saw how Feltex was hammered by a few informed sellers before it went under.
What investors must look for when there is a selldown is whether buyers step up to the plate and take the stock. They do not buy 1m shares without doing their homework.
Have a look at GPG - sellers were heading for the exit door in panic a few months ago. Out came a few big hitters and they moped up every available share, and then once they were set, started paying up to increase their stakes.
Thanks guys!!!
If some folk are selling shares acquired at 9 cents.....then they are probably quite happy with 50c or 40 or 30 or......
https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/228757
Pursuant to the exercise of options to acquire Ordinary Shares at $0.09 per share.
That’s entirely true of any stock. Equally, if they held for another three months they may be selling at 90 or 100 or 110 cents.
There’s no telling why folk decide to sell rapidly. But for whatever reason, one could speculate that they may have wanted to sell down for sometime and didn’t get any strength to sell into after the AGM.
I agree. Sellers will sell when they sell - for whatever reason - and the same goes for buyers. What happened previously is historic and can't be influenced ... and what is yet to happen is unknown to all of us, but may be subject to influence. I can't see any point in trying to second guess why the market does what she does. The bottom line is she will take us wherever she wants and will do whatever she wants to us - because everything being equal, she is an efficient beast. Willing buyer and willing seller acting on all available information. If both sides of the market had the same interpretation of the available information...there probably wouldn't be a market.
And so ends my philosophical viewpoint!
Nice quote. I'm involved in a harness racing business (wagering) The tote is a market. "the pool" (total turnover on a race ) is generated by differing opinions between people wagering on different horses at different prices. They all have ways of coming to their own conclusions about who will win/place in the race. All individuals can do is trust their study/instincts and back with confidence. A interesting market in itself to study.
Another article concluding on possible detections of cancers through urine analysis, and linking back to the previous article about Odoreader: http://www.popsci.com/science/articl...whats-your-pee
Would be interesting to follow.
Disc: not trying to freak peoples out, holding PEB myself.