It's gonna get messy. . .
I think it's become clear that Russia cannot win a "conventional" war in Ukraine.
And history tells us that dictators who lose wars do not survive their failure..
What will the peace look like when it finally comes?
But with the current and ongoing moral panic, will it be politically acceptable for "the West" to come to the economic rescue of Russia?
I Watched Doctor Strangelove Last night
A small tactical nuclear (or chemical?) device on on Ukranian soil on one of the main Poland/Ukraine roads - say to the east of Jaroslaw in Poland, which is the closest "main" road to where those western cargo planes are landing.
Followed by a strident disavowal.
No overt act of aggression to any NATO country.
Imagine you're the Russian dude "on the ground" asked to "pull the trigger". What are your choices? A bullet now vs a starring role in the St Petersberg War Crimes Trials of 2028. Which path will you take?