your on the money ... travel doesnt mean jewellery wanes as it not a TV...inflation can hit it though as its left over.. Girls love to show off stuff...and some boys..
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your on the money ... travel doesnt mean jewellery wanes as it not a TV...inflation can hit it though as its left over.. Girls love to show off stuff...and some boys..
Hey Mudfish, its really hard to work out looking at the historicals aye. Maybe others have better data. Some years are really out of whack due to the closing of stores and associated one off costs.
2018
HY= $8.7M
FY= $31.7m
2019
HY= $19.5M
FY= $16.5M
2020
HY= $21.4M
FY= $3M
2021
HY= $39M
FY= $45.2M
2022
HY est= $41.9m
FY est= $50.8m
These are Aus$. So if FY22 is $50.8m NPAT that's EPS of 0.13.
At your target P/E of 12 that's current Aus SP today of 12*0.13 A$1.56 (like you say) or NZ$1.66
But remember they had $70m cash at last balance date so maybe $80m today. That's $0.20 per share. Thats A$1.76 or NZ$1.87 target price.
Maybe STU wins the great race to $2 after all.
If you are worried MHJ are selling heaps and heaps and it is never to be repeated they actually arnt. Their revs and GP margin have been fairly steady over last 6 years. MHJ just stopped closing stores and now pull through a much better bottom line.
2022 est 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 Revenue $ 575,898.42 $ 556,500 $ 492,060 $ 569,500 $ 575,539 $ 582,975 $ 551,127 Gross Profit $ 365,695.50 $ 348,900 $ 298,204 $ 353,032 $ 366,882 $ 368,943 $ 351,276 GP Margin 63.5% 62.7% 60.6% 62.0% 63.7% 63.3% 63.7%
As per above. They wont even be selling as much in est FY22 as they did back in 2017!!
Gee heaps of market share to make up huh? Maybe this is the bottom of the cycle?? 2 bucks easy!!
Cheers Rawz. There's my first mistake, I was NZD. I will have a think about where cash fits into all of this. Cash reserves are obviously good but that isn't profit. Awesome you mention STU as I can't get the SP to look any better than MHJ. Going on the information we have today, I'm thinking both companies were good buying $1.30 but these horses have already run. I'd like to buy but don't want to gamble on the unknown. You've motivated me to revisit STU anyway. Thanks
Rawz - aren't you meant to use Comparable EBIT as the real profit figure
Goodness knows what this Comparable EBIT is --- maybe a nice number they pull out of thin year?
I've got it in my spreadsheet but dont really look at it. Not smart enough to dissect it. Leave that sort of stuff to the masters like yourself, W69 ;)
Like you say, can easily be pie in the sky stuff.
A big part of my MHJ investment philosophy is the new management came in to right size the business and build online offering. That as you know consumes a lot of time. Now that multi year part is largely done lets see what they can do to grow sales. They only recently hired a digital guru for the exec team.. Rob Fyfe moved to chairman.. happy to give them a crack.
Seems to be getting hammered on the ASX, any reason?
1.30 ....:eek2:... anyone else ... 1.30 ... it hasnt worked so far.
just cant find a reason for a down grade yet...
chart shows a pullback required...
what say you winner?
on ASX going as fast as KMD
some profit taking winner... the chart says sell if you bought is well under a dollar..
1.30 would be a BUY
everytime we have put a pin on the chart it hasnt come near it for more than an afternoon or less.
yes winner we do but one cant be greedy and the rest of the investor might already be happy to hold and go higher..
1.30 looks like a buy on the chart... 1.40 more likely.
then fill in and build up. Jewellery is often bought when people travel. Not saying MHJ is in this category but other kinds of ethic jewellery has over the millennium been bought as one travels aboard such as the grand tour or the invasion of geographic areas with some looting going on...
Treasure hunters and tomb raiders.. ect ect
the hoarding of trinkets has been going on in the bazaar since traders travelled from one city town to another..
Walltzing, have you just gone a buying spree? Big volume!!!
well we stated here this morning that 1.40 would be a buy. A Zoom meeting last night discussed SKC, MHJ, some local retailers and US big Tech.
I had voiced last year to buy more MHJ but others saw it as a big risk...
Clearly stated 1.40 for a buy... 1.30 for buy a few MORE...
that 2 million is an off market trade. removed it from the vol?
others can comment on if they consider SP as retail daily. Orders are often marshalled by the brokers. A SP is usually i thought not retail but registered off market.
The SHAZ are buying...no chance of 1.40 unless we get a risk shock somewhere..
SKC was seen as the opportunity now and likely to be so if the big sick arrives for a while yet.
So tomorrow s when we find out how much more than 'well above $44.6m' is
Suppose the person who bught share at A$1.75 the other thinks is heaps
back to 150.... no chance...
here we go some profit taking .. 120 G under the auction hammer..
Bit confused --- they say H122 EBIT be more than H121 of $44.6m
Let's say $50m ....but they reported $58.9m in H121 --- so are profits actually going backwards
Must be some adjustments somewhere
Its a typo... H120..
someone typed the wrong year..
its the wrong year someone in media put the previous years number in there...
expect they will correct it shortly..thats the number for H120...still not a good look and everyone much be down with OMI.
Just emailed the CFO.
For you Waltz
Attachment 13398
Hence why Ill just be looking at revenue and profit. much easier.
" Statutory earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) increased by 66.9% to $58.9m (FY20H1: $35.3m)"
"Comparable EBIT1 of $44.6m against $31.6m for FY20H1."
from H Year 21..
H20 had a similar number before i checked back...
Numbers look ok.
21 H1 result.
• Statutory net profit after tax increased by 82.1% to $39.0m (FY20H1: $21.4m).
• Statutory earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) increased by 66.9% to $58.9m (FY20H1: $35.3m)
• Comparable EBIT1 of $44.6m against $31.6m for FY20H1
Well not long to go for big reveal tomorrow re Q2 trading update and more colour on 1H22.
we lightened a fraction today as europe beckons...and hoping for some tech pull backs in the US as the FED has to tighten...
this thing has very little hope of seeing 1.40 again based on increases of EBIT and EBIT1.
we think 2 dollars.
Brisc will get some of our off load as its pulled back from its highs and HLG.
and rebalanced some MHJ for the next leg ...
pretty bloody impressive quarterly update. i'm pleased i bought a whack of shares in 2020 - less pleased its small part of the portfolio though! oh well.
One analyst who did stick their neck out for this was jarden who at the depth of its SP talking about the turnaround and upside to come. I thought ooh thats bold this thing is in dire straights but put a small chunk in - almost trebled my money on a small investment.
Going to be a boomer of 1H22 and some healthy divvies next month when they announce results.
I think I can see Rawz taking a stand in the market for 100,000 shares @ $1.50
Not bad going on the whole...steady as it goes.. under the trading conditions pretty good really.
opposite of the not bad , could do better, terrible , booo....
GO the Canucks !!!!
Stellar even in BAD WEATHER!!!
Hit that PUCK!!
So this Comparable EBIT to be $53m
profit up 19% on sales growth of 2.4%
IMPRESSIVE STUFF
YEP .. got to heading to higher high and lower lows...
only the lower lows lasted about that long... how long? not long..
Sir M is playing Hillary Bach to the sales teams in there sleep. Perfect nights sleep according to Hillary.
Who would have thought that Bach had the secret to deep sleep.
No I am not whale, i am just a small forgetful goldfish swimming around with lots of big fish.. or sharks? lol.
Sales not really going anywhere huh? Just as well its priced on a forward no growth p/e of 10.
Margins might be at peak? If they are 250bp (mid point of guidance) above last year its 65.2% gp margin. Last time it was close to this was 2018 at 64.8%
I agree with Waltzing. "Not bad going on the whole...steady as it goes.. under the trading conditions pretty good really."
I agree Rawz.. any time a jewellery retail chain can move the needle up and keep the sales team and the customer happy in difficult condition its a GOAL and Pucks on the score board.
The team is still in the game.
Div goes up and the crowd throws their scarf's in the air...:t_up:
The low sales growth has really thrown me tbh. I was expecting 10% growth based on the ebit "well above" comment. I didnt know it was going to be basically all margin growth as reported today.
I guess other retailers (whs & hlg) have reported negative sales growth.. maybe 2% growth is all good then?
NZ and AUS are tough markets with a LOT of competition.
Canada is outstanding and a surprise.
This is the most disrupted period of trading conditions in decades.
it not as if you get to practise rallying the sales team in a war zone every year.
Its a tight innings and they have the runs on the board.
Same store sales and all stores needs a break down in table format and that might brighten up the outlook a bit.
Same store average was 9.2.
I dunno rawz - as you say all other retailers have negative sales growth, so 2% is still #1 in retail. Everything has been shut. Same store sales growth (despite day’s lost) together with margin expansion - that is the holy grail combination of retail.
Hence why the sp trebling over 2 years…might have another 12 months of growth left in the tank…before a new chapter opens.
Same store rawz was pretty good.
AVE 9.2.
score board looks good by any measure.
Guess you guys are right. Wouldnt it be good to see a normal year of trading..
MHJ is going to do about A$45m in npat this half year. Its quite incredible really.
Agree same stores sales growth and better margins the holy grail
But MHJ same stores sales not calculated the normal way. They seem to use days stores were trading in their calculation……whatever this actually means Same store sales reflect sales through store and online channels on a comparable trading day basis and a proportional allocation of Professional Care Plan (PCP) revenue and accounting adjustments, and are unaudited. Same store sales do not include permanent or temporary store closures on a same trading day basis.
Has me totally confused and when I get confused it’s an orange flag. The only ‘correct’ number is that H1 sales were $8m higher than pcp
And when Winner is confused im concerned lol.
This comparable EBIT or underlying ebit is unaudited, pre-AASB16, pre-IFRIC SaaS-related adjustments, and with normalisations.
What's the normalisations I wonder?
Ah well. Top line will be 2% higher and bottom line will be 15.4% higher than last years $39m npat.
Based on bottom line being $45m ish.
This is calculated using $51m ebit (comparable) which is the mid point of todays guidance and then using last years NPAT/EBIT ratio of ~88%.
I.e. ebit $51m* 0.88= $44.88m npat
I'm happy to continue to hold and collect those divvies, as I've only paid buck less than today's price. Not really that fret with numbers for now...
What matters is that the tabulated results are consistent. That they havnt changed the underlying stat method.
I agree that the investor presentations dont have the detail one would desire but as long as they are consistent with the underlying method.
I think net positive for the future...
Being hurt by lockdowns this quarter seems apparent and aligned with some commentary that consumers are not bouncing back from lockdown to the same degree as previous.
Strategy of margin expansion appears to be working. This hurt MHJ when 1st applied, retail teams were used to discounting to get the sales and struggled with the change and management were sluggish getting this right but appear to now have this in hand.
Like for like sales appears to include like for like number of trading days - this is a reasonable approach for retail but has unexpected remifications on metrics in lockdown scenarios - i.e. higher like for like sales when sales are in fact down. I think the positive is less lockdown days will likely translate to sales growth at the higher margin so points to more profit growth.
Would like to see some capital management - MHJ are sitting on way too much capital, higher profits this quarter will have added to that cash pool and they need to do something with it. If caution is still de jour would at least like to see 100% dividends...
So Comaparable EBIT could be up $8.4m on last year to $53m
Assuming a 65.2% GM (up 2.5% points) then
Increased EBIT from selling more is $5.0m and the impact of the increased GM% is $8.1m = Gross Margin up $13.1m .... with expenses up $4.7m
Jeez that margin expansion big contributor eh -- worth $8m ..... and essentially accounts for all the increase
The real half year report will be interesting
the zillions of corporate welfare they received last year interesting .... but then again they don't seem to have had windfall sales after lock downs finished like many other retailers ..... result reported profit down maybe 10% plus
I wonder what actually is the real level of business going forward .... something to ponder over the weekend
But actual ebit is going to be ~$67m. So you would take the lease interest off that wouldnt you?
The $51m ebit is going on the old way of actual interest isnt it? Or do i have it backwards
$34m npat too low W69
I'm no accountant thou.. I think SB9 has the right outlook... numbers look good. Happy to hold for the dividend
aye. i don't begrudge any retailer (or anyone else) for keeping the wage subsidy when they were legally able to do so. The downside, however, it makes YOY comps harder, assessing what is maintable more difficult, and I dont think it fair to do a multiple on earnings keeping them, as its not a long term or high quality source of income (IE, it is worth the net of tax cash rec'd and nothing else). I dont know how much MHJ has rec'd - loads I suspect. HLG rec;d over 13 million in the 2 years to august 2021. I wish briscoes had kept theirs but handed it all back - the only upside is going forward they won't cycle off them. When doing a deep dive on the underlying economics of each business best to take the subsidy out, so as to see the true underlying profit and implied valuation metrics based on operating earnings. makes a pretty big impact
Canada is the icing layer on the xmas cake here and a special div surely.
Full 2021 audited financials provide interesting reading. Note: tax losses are being held for future use over 30 mill for US and a small amount for NZ.
Nice Vol day over 500,00 mostly retail in all prob.
Discussed on Zoom this morning after Bike ride in the country side around Lake Karaipro...
The thoughts were expanding into US is unknown.
Maybe they will continue to expand in Canada and Rob F will be a very careful custodian of shareholder funds.
Special div more likely or increase in Div as EPS grows.
Good to see Canada sales getting back to pre-covid levels
Good or a worry -- most retailers seem to have a good couple of years with current sales level (annual basis) quite a way above pre-covid levels in spite of lockdowns etc ..... ie they've done well capturing the pent up demand plus.
Checking back Canada sales are much the same as they were at June 2018 .... and margins not much better ....and profit doesn't seem to have improved either
Hey rawz - whats going on with Canada, the icing on the Christmas cake
Suppose you'll tell me ....it's all about the future :eek2:
Not sure tbh mate. What about the store count? I’m guessing it’s shrunk. Maybe the sale of the Canada store finance book has impacted the numbers as well?
CFO said in the agm last year that he watches the store metrics very closely. The theme of the business seems to be make more with less. As long as EPS goes up that’s all that matters
Winner Canada has performed in an country where real men are lumber jacks and girls wear Bear Fur... or used too.
Canada is still not back to 2018 levels. Half way between 2017 and 2018.
Very competitive business world wide.
Got to be a Div increase.
I think its going to be making about the same (if not less) with less from this point of time onwards
My guess for FY22 is EPS to be less than FY21
That 'bet' re STU and MHJ share price reaching 2 bucks --- odds on STU might get there this year but methinks MHJ will never get there
Winner its going to take more efforts for sure but a happy team is a performing team.
STU in a different sector and it will take longer MHJ. Canada will have to expand which means more stores in Canada.
Population 38 Odd million, very big country, perhaps difficult to place new stores which means a very slow expansion but they will have to expand.
No business is static and without the abilities to execute ideas.
Was going to buy more but after pondering where they heading and future prospects I’ll leave those shares for the zoomers like waltz to pick up
"zoomers like waltz to pick up"
my personal account has some.
But the entities no longer as the i stated we lightened already.
The other Zoomers were astounded it got this far...
Personally im staying a bit longer... and have stated 1.30 would trigger interest..
But im with you winner. They will have to expand somewhere to push on to 2 dollars.
They have executed this time and not ready to say that's their game plan over.
If your AVE price is well under a dollar your siting pretty.
The financials are a big job as this company as a few moving parts.
Got a bit of time while i wait for the next release of our software.
Once the new release is fit for purpose a lot of manual data comparisons will be script automated for markets.
Got some MHJ when they were cheap ... only reason probably .... and basically followed the rhetoric and hype since without doing any proper research.
The rhetoric about record Q2 sales and 10 consecutive quarters of same store sales growth and all the big percentages they seem to produce in their quarterly updates plus all the other stuff they rave about doesn't show in the chart below.
Seems a pretty ordinary effort to me .... even allowing for store closures and all that stuff .... and gross margin doesn't seem to have improved that much
The big question is whether will we see any decent sustained sales growth in the next few years - if not MHJ not cheap at moment
Lucky that I've done more than OK but I should have really checked whether rhetoric matches the numbers
Winner they may not have got this wind fall but they are still in the game and the DIV is notGood Yield in question.
In the old days Rules might be used by investors.
In KISS principal.
Low Long term Debt.
Solvent.
Good Yield.
Good Sale programs that value employees.
Net Profit not Net Loss.
MHJ is now inside this Rule Set.
Shave a buck off the SP and The Hawk may start to feel interested again :)
MHJ seems to be well overpriced now IMO
Unless they record severe losses the SP wont move down a dollar.
Is fairly priced right here.
Is it ?
or just in a low yield goldfish bowl ?
Just one HY less favourable report ahead could change that too :)
What's changed since early 2019 with MHJ ? ;)
The hawk's general gut feeling is there could be a fair bit of slip sliding backwards
to come in many areas of the NZX Board sectors. No further major artificial economy
bicycle pump action expected from the Hill ahead, a bit of inflation thrown in instead ..
and that's before Robertson & mates even consider pulling the chain to suck a bit back in
from the bloated economic bowl overflowing with readies, now worth a fraction of what
they were when poured into the bowl..
Specific to MHJ.
MHJ is AUD dollar dominated and may increase its Canuck exposure we dont know yet.
Add the great new influence in RF and the current results speak for themselves.
You may well have many good points and many that can be added related to NZ economy.
But so far it looks like demand for NZ exports is underpinning the markets and hard work of everyone milking cows to growing grapes in many areas of New Zealand outside its cities and outside wellington.
What's Covid doing in Omacronville across the ditch & elsewhere ?
Peak stats if I'm not mistaken..
Economies stacked to the brim with artificially created inflationary funny money.
Did MHJ sales, prices & margins grow by the same invisible inflationary rate, or not so ? :)
Why not ?
And as for when it evaporates & the money creation stops / gets sucked back in ?
Not a risk I'd take here on current SP levels and certainly not on current Div rates IMO
Points for a general discussion on Macro economics, deficits and QE.
Humans have worn art work since and before the celts.
Dont expect them to stop anytime soon.
So MHJ sales, prices & margins can't have grown by the same invisible inflationary rate, I assume ? ;)
Now they must be heading back to stumping up 100% of staffing etc costs out of margin ..
What will that do to the bottomline, if the economic bicycle pump action stops ? ;)
What will happen to SP, if the Div returns to 1.5 cps a half year sitting ? ;)
Probably a good topic for a thread on the effects off QE , supportive Macro economics policies, rising interest rates on the retail sector.
"Might walk away from Canada just like they did with the States"
short the stock winner.. go on!!
the stats going back 5 years dont seem to indicate they are sledding away..from Canuck land.
really winner... by now unless your under a dollar you should sell now.
Where's the upside with MHJ - Waltzing ? ;)
As far as I can see - if SP slides 3.0 c there's half year div gone
Make it 5.0c or 6.0 c slide - there's the div for a year at 6.0 c gone (assuming that's the case)
I have difficulty seeing MHJ as a $2 buck share or even fair value at current levels
based on recent past performance & the economic conditions looking forward ..
Investors have the option to short the stock.
Its a gamble what happens in the retail sectors now.
Not even considering selling anymore at the moment.
What will a normalised 6 months do Waltzing ?
Let's face it periods closed, followed by periods with bumper windfall sales in various locations ;)
What are you guys using for a dartboard ? ;)
Who knows nztx? what's your dartboard like?
Since new CEO and CFO came in margins have increased 250bp. Debt has gone from -$24m to $70m. SP has increased 110% Its not all bad.
HLG and WHS sales down at half year. MHJ sales up. Common... its not all bad. ;)
You are completely writing MHJ off. Fair enough- thats your call. Could do the opposite of what you say. Not saying I am buying at these levels.. not selling.. happy to see another few reporting periods.
The balance sheets of consumers in each country are not equal and nor are the currencies or the economies.
As stated open a thread of that complex subject. Dont forget each RB runs a ratio for T1 for banks and NZ has a new one coming.
Have clearly stated its a speculative investment for us based on long term thousands of years of business in humans wearing art.
Until more ECO information comes to light about the consumers balance sheets across all 3 ECO's not throwing darts anywhere.
Retail has always been a cyclical investment. You can fill your DASHBOARD of data from the countries published economic stats.
Here the one for the US, lots of reading here and who hasnt been reading this site.
https://www.bea.gov/
AUS has one also and thats where Winner goes to fill his DASHBOARD.
Rawz - I reckon H122 NPAT will be about A$36m and H222 about A$7m giving full year about A$43m v A$45m in F21
That's an EPS of about 11 cents/share so currently trading at a PE of 13
My pondering over the weekend and looking at numbers says that in light of no real sales growth and marginal margin increases over the last few years the current share price is pretty fair.
OK doing about the same with less might be OK but where's the growth coming from post all this rationalisation and transformation is the question. I see profits hanging around these levels for a while which isn't that exciting - means MHJ may have become a steady as she goes company with (hopefully) a decent dividend.
Market sentiment is reasonably positive (although that outrageously good announcement the other day didn't excite the market) so I will keep holding in the meantime - one never knows sales might start going through the roof.
Seems MHJ share price not far off all time high (sept 2016 reached 181)
That's good .... let the winners run they say
Calculation of Comparable EBIT for FY2021 (AR2021 p35)
Statutory EBIT $72.398m add Canadian credit book revaluation $2.986m less Government grants received ($14.593m) less Impact of AASB16 leases ($4.197m) equals Comparable EBIT $56.594m
Question: How is the impact of AASB16 lease adjustments calculated?
Answer.
1/ Go to cashflow statement statement (AR2021 p57) to get an estimate of rent payments made on the day to day running of this business.
Leasing Interest Paid (Operating activity) ($6.653m) Principal Portion of Lease payments (Financing Activity) ($40.997m)
It is slightly awkward to estimate the excluding GST value on what used to be reported on as 'rent' for MHJ, because the GST rate varies according to which territory the MHJ stores are in (New Zealand 15%, Australia 10%, Canada: a composite federal and state system that varies between 5% and 15%). However, I consider that 12.5% is a reasonable estimate of the average.
Generally GST is not charged on interest payments. But the 'Leasing Interest paid' is an accounting construct for reporting purposes, built around what would have been in the pre -AASB16 days called rent. So I think I can best estimate the pre AASB16 payment of rent as follows:
[ ($6.653m + $40.997m) ]/ 1/125 = $42.356m
2/ Find depreciation of the 'Right of Use Asset', a category of depreciation that did not exist before AASB16 (Refer AR2021 p62)
Depreciation of Right of Use Asset ($35.357m) Consequential Covid-19 rent concessions ($3.902m)
Adding together these two opposing effects of AASB16 the net result is:
[ ($35.357m+$3.902m) - $42.356m ] = ($3.097m)
OK that figure is a little bit different to the figure quoted in the annual report. I put that down to not being able to pinpoint the overall GST rate accurately ( I don't think MHJ disclose sufficient information to allow me to do this). But I feel my method is right nonetheless.
SNOOPY
I see average of 3 broker targets is A$1.25 (marketscreener)
Hope they are wrong
After the US invasion and unproven performance who could blame them for being conservative.
That why always described it as speculative..
So far the team is seeing the puck pretty clearly.
Wonder what the DIV will be.
they are still buying winner..
Good volumes too on both markets, could get to 1.70 at this rate...
Winners projected EPS would probably have to come in at >13 and DIV MOW up a bit.
Well priced at 1.70. But every other retailer report sales going backwards didnt they? except this one but BRIS is yet to report.
Dont think table earnings > 13 is coming this H1YTD.
Winners last projects was 11?
There is some snuff going through you wont see in the depth....and trades.
3RD QTR going to be very interesting stats.
sold off ... then bounced back...did not get to 1.30...
the SHAZ are buying... fearless...
Strong opening bid at 1.45, looks like MHJ is set apart from rest of retail stocks.
Speechless......in amongst La Mer of retail doom and gloom
Well we're (NZX) on our own today, no guidance from ASX as its closed for Australia Day.
Nice volume flow today with buyers and sellers in equilibrium.
yes great to see for players.