All in this waltz
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...908/371835.pdf
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All in this waltz
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...908/371835.pdf
Thats the one not the investor preso...
looks like costs rampart as per OCA.
I'm taking a nice long holiday from any analysis on retirement village companies. Market has spoken today. Real estate is in freefall and the Government are strangling the life out of the care sector. I reckon that's all you need to know is terms of the future share price direction of this sector at present. The higher the percentage of care in your business model the worse off you are and in my opinion that's not going to change any year soon. All are uninvestable for the foreseeable future except SUM who have a very care lite model but with that one I reckon you might as well wait for a new uptrend which realistically, probably won't happen anytime soon.
"higher the percentage of care in your business model the worse off you are and in my opinion that's not going to change any year soon."
the Annual report seems to confirm this.
A farther drill down into operating costs may reveal what MR B alludes to and it seems to be in both sets of Accounts OCA and ARV.
Profitable divisions of the business cover for the loss making.
Staffing issue is now in full swing........
https://www.stuff.co.nz/timaru-herald/timaru-top-stories/300612953/nursing-crisis-forces-closure-of-33-hospitallevel-beds-in-timaru'
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...544/373770.pdf
Wasn't able to attend, but given nobody else has posted about the AGM, in fact about nothing for over 2 weeks, I assume at the very least the sausage rolls were okay?
If they were anything like the presentation, then I imagine they'd taste 'well positioned' and be very easy to digest.
I noticed that the 2H22 dividend payment (3.0c) is expected to be sustainable for FY23 - so if it is 6.0 cents per share for the year, this would put ARV on a fairly decent 4% yield, with dividend growth year on year of 10% - but the yield and dividend increase aside, if this guidance of 6cps dividend is towards the lower end of the 40-60% underlying profit range, given 5.5 cents per share paid in FY22 was 54% of underlying profit, then this would imply ARV are expecting a large increase in underlying profit for FY23... that would contrast with what Mr Market things markedly it would seem
or am I reading this all wrong?
NTA per share is at $1.84, why is the SP dropping a few cents today.
Last November ARV raised $330m from selling shares at $1.96 and $1.85
Those shares are now worth $243m - wow that's $87m down the gurgler .... wonder how many of the keen punters who excitedly mopped them up are still holding
But the stock exchange did its job - a place for companies to raise capital
Compared to other listed retirement villages, ARV has one of the lower unit price to house price ratios (ie wider gap between their unit prices and average house prices = less chance of their unit prices being compressed), more conservatively geared, has a strong continuum of care focus (which makes their villages more attractive to those who don't), topped off by having an arguably more conservative growth path... and despite these 4 key 'defensive' factors, the market is saying the NTA of $1.84 is nothin but fake news and is really more like $1.40 (which is a 24% discount) then one would think things are in serious trouble for sum other listed retirement villages... if not all listed property related stocks on the NZX...
Market is usually right, but I beg to differ. The inflationary process has already increased the costs of new builds and refurbishment costs have skyrocketed. I had an updated quote to reroof from three months ago, up by 40%.
So what does that do to the value of existing property. Has to increase dramatically. Just takes a bit of lag time. It's like the market moves down with future uncertainty and interest rate worries but property goes up with past inflation and cost increases. So it will come and now is the time to buy in.
Bit surprising to have to trawl through the pages to get to ARV's thread all the way back on page 7... last month it won the famed Canstar award yet it seems nobody could care less about such an important accolade...
https://www.canstarblue.co.nz/home-g...ment-villages/
Update looks pretty good
First half Realised Margins look like they are up from 25m last year to 40m ..good indication of Underlying Earnings growth
However paying out a greater %age of earnings to maintain dividend at comparable level as last year implies earnings down …..cost of looking after people going through the roof? That's how I interpret that part of the newsletter ....might be wrong
Man from Arvida on radio this morning sounded like he was close to tears talking about costs and nurse / caregivers situation.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...910/380409.pdf
Yes, ARV report having to flex admissions, pause admissions or close wings temporarily to right size operations to staffing capacity. Winter and the pandemic exacerbated the wider shortage issues.
Despite the 5.5% increase in the Government's care funding rates from 1 September (which, obviously, is less than the rate of inflation, and despite nursing staff overhead escalating even more sharply) ARV has actively pursued a strategy of reducing the number of traditional care beds in the portfolio, in favor of care suites. This will be a national trend among all providers in that space and should seriously concern Andrew Little.
Finally, at least the Board seem determined to maintain at least the current dividend level for FY23.
Things clearly not that bad, yet share price would imply otherwise... First time price targets have been included I believe - really highlights just how undervalued ARV is...
If you find Andrew little quoted in todays herald his biggest worry is the large companies making a profit. True left genius, as long as the people are suffering everything must be going well.
Yes, I remember the publicity when he made that comment in February and thought at the time what a fool to put down the one sector in the health care industry that actually delivers for everyone.
ARV share price plummeted into the 130's
Seems the market has interpreted this extract as a veiled profit warning / maybe cut in dividend - after all it did start with that ominous phrase 'However, with headwinds ...'
However, with the headwinds encountered over the first half, in order to retain the full year dividend at a
comparable level to FY22, a payout ratio around the mid-point of the distribution band is forecast based on
the current trading conditions
A complicating factor for F23 is they gave a huge number of extra shares. Back of the envelope sums says a 5.5 cents dividend (same as last year assuming comparable means same) at 50% payout implies EPS 11.0 cents v last years 12 cents..... is about an increase in $ terms of 10% though
So EPS less then last year .... wasn't acquisition to be eps accretive?
Nice of them to give an update but being rather obtuse has created uncertainity. A pity really because ORA sales are going well .... but those costs must really be hurting
Hopefully they will be more specific (and upfront) when half year result is announced in November
i agree with winner. potential cut in div and potential headwinds announcement
I interpret it as an oversold signal and time to start buying in more, very soon. I read the announcement a little different. They are going to maintain the same quantum of the dividend, but as their profit will be more, the percentage of dividend covering profit will become less.
Or am I wrong. I am no longer trading so as a long term holder, it makes no difference. Waiting for inflationery pressures to boost the SP within the next two years.
Hey Winner, your back of envelope maths are pretty good and sadly I fully agree with your summary too.
I feel sorry for ARV, they have been caught out pretty bad by Govt underfunding.
OCAs shuffling with their rest homes have gained them ~$8m in extra premium fees over the last 2 years . This large gain hasn’t even kept their care operations treading water . Compare that to ARV which has gained only $0.7m in extra premium fees.
of the ~1600 beds they own they have only 10% as care suits. Most seem to be just conversions as opposed to new deliveries. Just not enough to offset the Govt damage.
Luckily , or through brilliant management, ARV bought loads of good quality villas and have enjoyed a housing boom since. They have done really well on that front but with the extra shares issued to do it and the now millstone of their rest homes, it has made it a pretty neutered EPS result ( very generally speaking.)
These poor guys really have been screwed by the Govt with underfunding. So they divest 4 rest homes this year , what else can they do? No doubt each divestment also comes with a negative sale price.
For a $3.4 b company, building 250-300 villas and care units is the only option left available but is not going to get them out this lower growth situation in a hurry.
ARV are run really well and are rolling out SUM style villages , generally single level, which is a great model. But owning all these care beds is now problematic. Unfortunately doing more care suit single level conversions won’t work well enough either to compensate as there just isn’t enough profit in those (they don’t sell for that much and they can only be done in moderate numbers), as opposed to a full high density rebuild in a premium area.
ARV will still grow slowly for now and just maybe the Govt will increase funding but the poor buggers have really been rogered through no fault of their own doing.
Really sorry TJ , I know you love this company. Todays report , to me, paints a clear picture of how dire the ordinary rest home side of the industry currently is. That even the great stuff happening in the ARV villas , high sales rates, prices and margins seems to be barely sufficient to compensate the care for now.
On the positive , there will come a time when their village developments will grow past the anchor of their care but I don’t follow this company close enough to know when that might be….maybe we are already there.
Arvida getting into the habit of talking really positive and setting high expectations and then not delivering on them.
Like at the time they announced the Arena acquisition they indicated FY22 Underlying Earnings would be $67m plus 5 months of Arena. FY22 proforma guidance for Arens was $32m-$34m so lets say Arvida would have got $14m giving total group profit of $81m
They delivered $73.5 Underlying Earnings - a miss of $7.5m. Arena contributed $14.9m (a better than expected) which means the rest of the business contributed $58.6m - some 13% short of the expected $67.0m though was 13% more than the FY21.
Come FY23 Arvida still talked growth etc etc etc setting expectations of Underlying Earnings of at least $105m. This assumed modest growth as well as 12 months of Arena.
The news yesterday showed that first half realised gains on sales are likely to be 70% up on last year - so good start to the year but then they gave that veiled profit 'downgrade' for the full year.
Working with those statements about dividends etc it seems that FY23 Underlying Earnings will be about $83m (my workings)
Jardens reported that what was said could imply $86m and reduced their forecasts from $101m to $88m
Whatever eventuates its clear that Arvdida missed FY22 earnngs expectations big time and are on thrack to miss FY23 expectatons big time as well.
Not very good record Arvida - no wonder your share price was in the 130's yesterday
Goodness gracious me - Arvida share price closed today at $1.28 .... and looks like it's going to fall further
Glad I didn't get seduced into buying those cheap shares they hocked off a year ago - $1.85 not a bargain after all. And even more glad I quit the few I had at the time around $1.95 when the market reaction to the Arena acquisition wasn't all that enthusiastic.
What's incredible is that the current market cap of $926m is $187m less than what it was at the time of announcing that acquisition .... and that's after raising $330m of new capital - massive loss of market value eh
Probably a case of no worries - it'll be all OK one day
Have to accumulate.
$1.18 now. The market is being completely merciless with this share.
What will the half year result to 30 September signal on 29 November except a known slowdown in completion rate for new builds (many deferred to this half) and poor outcomes for the rest homes (although the subsidy rate increased by 5.5% from 1 September, less than the rate of inflation, and that rate in this sector will be even higher!).
The market is being completely merciless with this sector ..... profits from building and selling things not sufficient to 'subsidise' the cost of running villages and caring for people - that cost is spiraling out of control,
More carnage to come ... across the sector
The
That's what happens when reversal of revaluation growth threatens meagre dividends.
Factor in rising interest rates, RRE on the way down and imaginary inflation running rampart
courtesy of Robbo and head RB Dreamer's hands inspiring further pull in of the strings
(These blundering high level twits will spin us into a recession if they don't wake up soon)
And that's before another bunch of quazi Govt meatheads want to take a knife to dividing up
gains on units between Operators and occupants.
The smart money can see it - a turning of the wheel and value starts evaporating
Time to value the sector on basis of negative real growth and Nil Dividends going forwards
Also high risk of discounted Cap Raises to sure up balance sheets
Anyone still interested in the sector or do other sectors look more attractive in a higher
inflation economic environment ? ;)
Buy too soon BP on the current Sector Market sentiment, and one could land a pile of red too ;)
The Fundamentals may be good, but that hasn't stopped a slide from 2 bucks or so down
to $1.13 today.
Had some of these when the last Cap raise came through at the top of the range
$1.97 which signalled start of the recent slide. Was that 12-18 months ago ?
The Revaluations may be out the window headed deeply red, dividend flagged, a bit
of balance sheet therapy needed to sure up the show needing a reverse dividend
back from holders pockets, and no sign of relief on the horizon for next 3-5 years ? ;)
Absolutely - and I didn't try to predict the bottom. Not my area of expertise (unless you give me the benefit of hindsight).
Think however that the downside risks from here are much smaller than the upside opportunities ... and given that I am not particularly good in picking absolute bottoms (s. above) do I normally buy when a stock looks (based on fundamentals) attractive.
A good strategy might be to buy in similar sized parcels over the coming months.
I wonder if something has been leaked. Hit lows of $1.09 but has some legs at $1.15 now. I feel that next week may be a surprise. Better than expectatoons.
It's mainly the Government announcement of $200m additional funding support for nurses in these facilities. All listed RV operators up this morning.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/403208
Highlights:
• IFRS Net profit after tax of $89.2 million, up 18%
• Underlying profit[1] of $38.9 million, up 46%
• Gearing ratio of 28%, retained at low end of target 25-35% range
• Operating cash flow of $77.4m, up 12%
• Total sales of $168.2 million, up 31%
• 51 new units delivered, on track to exceed FY23 development guidance
• NTA increased to $1.93 per share
• Interim dividend of 2.5 cents per share
ARV is now very clearly in a league of its own - or at least in a league above RYM and OCA (which both had patchy results)... hopefully Mr Market will begin to recognize this as currently ARV's price to NTA is borderline appalling at just above 0.6x... appalling because ARV has proved the naysayers wrong yet again by produced a pretty stunning result, especially given the market conditions/doom and gloom etc... topped off by this positive comment: With strong demand for retirement village living, an improving aged-care environment and a lowly geared balance sheet, Arvida is well placed to deliver improved performance into the second half of the financial year. They already had a great first half, so to improve again on this will be truly amazing
solid! profit up, sales up, op cash flow up. strong balance sheet.
how do they do it??
Seems they have donw OK on the sales side but day to day costs are hurting them. The difference between realised gains on sales and Underlying NPAT is a negative $4.8m - over the last few years its has averaged positive $5m
I call this the 'Operating Surplus from Day to Day Operations'. How much they make from non-property stuff - running villages and caring for people etc. Recent numbers ($000) have been
H119 6,179
H219 5,396
H120 5,466
H220 6,964
H121 5,250
H221 4,388
H122 3,258
H222 1,624
H123 -4,822
The last half is bad and follows a weak H222. I think these recent numbers are the impact/cost of all the things like wages/costs/govt subsidiies they keep talking about - they are becoming a real drag on earnings
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...185/384548.pdf
Disclosure notice on day of results announcement for on market purchases 23 & 24 November. They state:
Acquisition of ordinary shares on market,with the acquisition completed by PeterAmbrose as trustee of the P T AmbroseFamily Trust without the involvement orprior knowledge of Michael Ambrose(independent trustee and non-beneficialowner)
Tui...I'm not really buying that with the timing, it seems a tad 'wrong' to me.
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/blob:h...d-be898d9f20aa
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/blob:h...7-6654bfc01b00
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/blob:h...0-813af985fcdcAre you sure this is valid? Ugly picture if it is. Wheels fallen off in H123, is it recoverable H223?
Attachment 14359Attachment 14358
Yes and even that was to like: With strong demand for retirement village living, an improving aged-care environment and a lowly geared balance sheet, Arvida is well placed to deliver improved performance into the second half of the financial year.
No wonder the share price will (hopefully) be back in the $1.30's by the end of today, if not by lunch time.
Confirmation bias is an amazing thing.
I was more thinking about that bit:
Quote:
With a difficult economic outlook, delivery targets for FY24 have been retained at the level of 250+ new homes per year.
Funding for aged care continues to materially lag the actual cost of care that is now resulting in the loss of care beds throughout New Zealand.
This was from May (when full year results were announced):
Commenting Mr Beverley said the environment for the year ahead included many uncertainties and some significant challenges for the New Zealand economy and property market.
Funding for aged care continues to materially lag the actual cost of care, which is resulting in considerable financial pressure for traditional aged care operations. Acute nurse shortages in the healthcare sector are also challenging the continued provision of services in some regions.
Not saying it isn't true, it is, but 6 months later, ARV continue to perform very well...
No idea if ‘valid’ but for years I have done these sort sums on all in the sector to get a feel for how ‘profitable’ the day to day to stuff is.
A few versions of this ‘Operating Surplus from Day to DY Operations’ -
1 One can take Reported NPAT and deduct Fair Value/Revaluations to see what’s left
2 and Underlying NPAT less Realised Gains / Development Margins
Generally the result is +ve (surplus) but lately with most in the sector it’s become less +ve and in some cases -ve (shortfall.)
This 'Operating Surplus from Day to Day Operations' metric of mine was +$3.3m in H122 and has turned into -$4,3m in H223 - a turnaround of $7.6m (adverse / not good)
Maybe best summarised like this -
H123 v H122
Fees / Income Up $15.1m
Employee Cost Up $11.2m
Other Costs Up $11.5m
Operating Surplus day to day Down $7.6m
Realised Gains Up $19.9m
Increase in Underlying Profit Up $12.3m
So great work on the sales/development side by making $19.9m than last year but as expenses have gone up $7.6m more than revenues Underlying Profit was only $12.3m up
The expense problem summed up in interim report 'Operating expenses increased $19.9 million when compared to the prior corresponding period. This included the addition of the Arena portfolio that was acquired in November 2021. We also once
again supported our front-line teams with a Covid bonus payment and pay increase. Higher leave provisions and roster covering were again a factor in higher employee costs.'
Considering that revenue increase also had the benefit of Arena to me it looks as if things are a bit askew at the moment with their control of day to day operations
Make of this what you will but then again i might just be looking at things the wrong way
Result OK by me....
Well, better than OCA :p
Would have been happier if they kept the DRiP on.
Good they earned enough money to be able pay for their latest building problems:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...LBQGDSFJWA45E/
(possibly paywalled)
I guess making Santa's main route into the house unsafe is clearly a NO-NO ...
This share was discussed at the Sharetrader get together at Oyster and Chop on Sunday. I decided to add another 10k to my investment portfolio today at $1.25 but cum the 2.5 cps unimputed dividend. A little late on the scene as it was quite a bit lower not that long ago and pre the half-year results announcement, but I reread all the detail, and the other recent announcements.
One point that took my eye this time is that ARV has 257 registered nurses providing care. The Government has stated it will fund pay parity going forward, although exactly when hasn't been specifically identified to the industry. This will surely add $3 - $4m pa directly to ARV's bottom line when it does occur, and additionally the daily rate subsidy for care bed occupancy has increased by 5.5% from 1 September. So the least profitable sector of ARV's activities could contribute a little more in future, although any private sector activity which depends on government funding is doomed to mediocrity at best.
Interestingly, despite delivering only 51 new units in the half to 30 September they still maintain they will reach the original full year target of 270 units built and delivered. I have seen that asserted twice in written form notwithstanding that slow build rate, so management/the Board must be at least reasonably confident about that, which in turn suggests that if sales momentum can be maintained the year-end outcome should be solid. And dividend guidance is to repeat last year's 5.5c in total. The yield isn't startling at around 4.5%, but at least there is one.
As Percy points out, at current prices you are purchasing at a substantial discount to NTA so longer term that should demonstrate value. Let's hope so.
Finished on $1.09 today... astonishing, and not in a good way, the share price has almost halved over the past year, yet profits, cash flows, you name it are on track to exceed the previous year (ie records will be broken!) with an extremely solid 1st half recently confirming this
The surprising thing in all this is ARV is one of the least leveraged of the listed stocks (ie least vulnerable to interest rate rises), makes some money on the care side of things (unlike SUM others) + produced much better results than OCA and RYM recently, including being the only one to actually see an increase in profits (both IFRS and underlying).
With an NTA of $1.93, recently increased profits and cashflows (which are expected to continue), topped off with a very solid 8 year track record of steady growth in dividends and earnings per share, a share price of $1.09 (44% discount to NTA) would seem unreal... yet that is ARV as it stands today...
We live in crazy times, but crazy times can throw up unheard of and rarely repeated opportunities.
The details of the pay parity agreement are still not yet known, but Andrew Little stated that employers who are already paying their RNs at the DHB rates, will not receive this extra funding. I am aware that some providers have been meeting the additional cost of paying their nurses at the higher rates, which, if Little is correct, means they will not benefit at all from the pay parity agreement. Whether Arvida is one of those providers I have no idea.
We need to wait for further details to be released before we can factor any "extra income" into the equation.
Don’t worry t_j
As we all know - the markets are in the short term a voting machine and in the long term a weighing machine ... it’s just that Arvida isn’t the prettiest contestant in the beauty pageant …her time will come when they get to the intellectual part of the contest
summerset putting on hold there building of retirement village in parnell
say rising building costs and falling property market make the project not viable
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...I6JBCEPNZUZDI/
wonder if arv being affected by same
major event next year add's big risk to sector
Review of Retirement Villages Act begins in 2023
At a high level, the review is set to consider whether the current Act and all its parts remain fit for purpose
https://www.hud.govt.nz/news/review-...egins-in-2023/
Paul Ridley-Smith (Director) has given notice of the acquisition of 100k ARV shares on-market on 23 December at $1.16, so at a minimum that's encouraging support for current price levels.
Today's "Australian" newspaper has run a significant article stating that 7 in 10 nursing homes in that country are currently running at a loss, concluding that the future of Australia's residential aged-care system under critical threat and noting that occupancy rates are also falling.
Given the length of time the sector has been underfunded there is a need for "structural change".
My own view is that Government cannot fix this issue, especially given the inexorable demographic tides, and that society will have to accept that ordinary people will need to contribute significantly more than at present from their own resources towards supported living in aged care. Reduction in subsidy will need to be accompanied by deregulation and a lessening of control over these facilities, whatever the consequences of that are.
There is scope to increase taxes and to introduce new ones. However in NZ that is politically unpalatable at present.
What do you suggest in addition to the current asset and income testing for the subsidy? Do you think that the partner, of a person in care, should sell their family home to pay for their partner's care?
By reducing regulation of facilities are you accepting that some old folk will have to live in squalor?
Well - they could tax the Retirement Operators on Fair Value gains in their Reports, if they seek
to include it as a Revenue (and effectively are operating as Property Developers)
Taxes then paid by the Sector's listed companies = Imputation credits attached on any dividends
Happier days for Holders of Shares in the sector :)
What's not to like about that adjustment ?
Nothing like a bit of getting the Sector back to the same level on the level taxpaying playfield as other taxpayers
and their investors who have to play on the rules set down for all :)
A very real taxing risk if Ardern & 'Shoot from the Hip for the Cash' Robbo manage to stumble
or fumble their way back in, in late 2023. No Sector is safe from these clueless clowns :)
new lows tomorrow ?
111 pennies close today .. why not more of the same in line with times ? ;)
Div not all that exciting in rising interest times, no Imp credits, Market pressures
and an economy turning to **** .. best stay a safe distance away IMO :)
to think this came down from 1.60 approx a year back, and still declining with
nothing really exciting on the horizon for the company, sector or economy.
I know where my dough is staying :)
Just to put that into a perspective: If people would put in the effort of looking at industrie trends instead of beating up arbitrarily some randomly selected stock (though nice difference it is here ARV vs the usual suspect OCA) , than they would see that over the last year ARV performed pretty much in the middle of the pack of the retirement industry.
Same as OCA, roughly 15% worse than SUM and roughly 15% better than Ryman.
I guess the much more interesting question is - when will the retirement industry bottom out, or are we already there? This question is obviously closely related to : When will real estate bottom out? In my view - this year it will be ... and it might be a good time to start placing ones bets.
But hey - obviously we can keep beating up stocks until the cows come home.
had to revisit some of my thoughts on the sector following hipkins comments and the big rebound in the sector over the last week. also the fact it didnt make a new low ( which some consider bullish )
considering the other stocks in the sector are up double digits % wise last week/ytd all except arv im wondering if there is a reason for this or is this a geniune play on arv playing catchup to the others in the sector ?
if arv were to catch up to rises of the others in sector it would need to jump to 1.25 - 1.30 to match the sector rise , if the sector keeps rising it would need to go higher.
if arv fails to rise at all you might have to question why ?
Indeed you have to question why, but you also have to look at the past - being the most undervalued stock of the listed retirement operators on every metric, and one of the most undervalued stocks on the entire NZX, is nothing new for ARV - in the past it can last for months before Mr Market catches on... given ARV's impressive track record, including most recently having the best results of the listed retirement sector by quite some margin, it is certainly surprising to see it is 'back to its old ways' as of right now, but this should 'fix itself' in due course (as it has done in the past where there are these unusual "lulls", also known as "buying opportunities"), which in this case means (ceteris paribus) a 10% or so uplift from the current $1.19 should be easily expected quite soon... unless of course there is something material that ARV is not disclosing in which case that would be extremely serious and the NZX should investigate.
Trader....that is indeed an heroic post...I could go on...
My mother resides in one.
The care ..staff are out standing...I was a nurse for over 4 decades...(psychiatric).
Bjauck - I hadn't realised you had responded (#1471 above) to my earlier post. There is an article in today's NZ Herald titled " Aged Care Crisis: The soaring costs hitting kiwi families " well worth a thoughtful read.
I don't think taxation will fix this. And the ratio of working taxpayers to each elderly person is well known to be moving in significantly the wrong direction, not to mention the many competing demands.
Do I think the partner of someone in care should sell the family home to pay for that care? Yes, that's preferable to the taxpayer directly subsidising those who stand to inherit in due course, which is in essence what occurs. And there are options such as reverse mortgages, downsizing, and so on which can mitigate the impact.
By reducing regulation am I accepting some folk will live in squalor? Well, the problem is that economics is dictating a failure to build new beds and/or adequately maintain existing ones. The public statement by Ryman that it will no longer provide additional spare capacity at its facilities is a real canary for the sector. And care suites require a capital contribution and need payment over and above available subsidy. And there is ample evidence that charities running rest homes have already cried " enough". So what options will remain to cope with the inevitable rising numbers?
You will get what you can pay for. And families/next of kin will have to do more. And folk will have to age " in place " until they absolutely cannot do that. And don't under any circumstances get dementia!
This Arvida village sounds a bit munted
At least residents OK even though some have lost everything
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/300...rement-village
Just curious...Has anyone just rung them and asked some questions.
Im not overly invested to care that much.
Remembering of course that what they dont say often means more than what they do say.
Seriously has anyone just rung them and asked for why the SP is plunging to new lows.
Ok Im ridiculous..fair call.I havent rung them because im not overly invested to care that much.
justakiwi...have you ever rung a PLC and asked a few questions...it can be quite interesting...
A wee hint ..ask the person you are talking to how many shares do they have.
OK, I was a little harsh so I apologise for using the word "ridiculous."
I was just pointing out that the company does not control the share price, although of course, company actions (such as capital raises etc) can temporarily influence the share price.
The share price is only relevant to me if I am wanting to buy or sell. Other than that, it tells me very little about the companies I am holding. From what I have observed lately, it seems to me that drops in share prices that make no real sense, are often the result of two things. Profit taking and fear. For share prices that are simply lower than one would expect or like them to be, fear seems to again be the common denominator. Very few people actually remember to think for themselves, in my experience. They follow their chosen investing "guru" (as many here have openly done often) believing that their guru is smarter than them and has some kind of magical powers. The truth is, nobody does. It is all calculated, informed guesswork in the end.
NZX listed companies have to abide by continuous disclosure rules with respect to material information.
https://www.nzx.com/regulation/nzx-r...guidance-notes
I am also curious why this SP keeps falling so dramatically.
It can't be concern over insurance for the flood damage to one location given ARV has stated it is comprehensively insured.
Additionally gearing was said (in the HY result to 30 Sept) to be only 27% after sale of the residue land left after the Waikanae development. NTA was given at $1.91 per share and on the face of it the profitability and build rates were reasonable albeit some completions were deferred to the HY ending 31 March, and embedded value had increased. So have either builds or sales/resales fallen into a black hole?
Does anyone have a good feel for this?
think the price wants to catch up to oca ... time will tell
There were signs of slowing sales last year. General weakness in residential market leading to longer time frames to settle rv sales. If you listen to the advertising you can see some operators offering extending settlement terms..move in now pay later..
Also some operators have said they will slow build rate or mix of build type as market demand changes.
I think SUM report this Friday..there meant to be the chosen one in the sector so be very intersting to see how they got on.
I bought my first ARV on Friday. In short term if residential stays soggy ARV might drop a bit more but I think there some long term value here and so I’m just starting to build a long term hold but not getting too excited on qnty.
It could be awhile before the tide turns. I’m not expecting great results from anyone in the sector in short term
Whole sector out of favour…the smart people sold when all the ceo’s of major companies all seemed to leave at the peak of market a couple of years ago…maybe they could see what was coming ..lol
Perky...."the ceos of major companies.. all seemed to leave"....what about main institutional investors.
Like surely this sector is long term investment yes...
Since I posted #1490 above I have asked NZX to issue a continuous disclosure letter to ARV, but if that is done by NZX, and to my mind grounds exist to do so, I am sure that will elicit the usual "nothing to see here" response.
Tongue in cheek comment troydh…but there was certainly a changing of the guard of ceos in a very condensed space and time now let’s us look back to see that things haven’t gone so well in sector since…it’s just a point a time.
Some left, some moved sideways..from oca to met, Julian cook went to Winton, Arv and Rym changed, sowry went to Q town airport
Agree this sector is long term. I’m not sure what institutional investors do when ceo,s leave. I guess they do their homework like all of us and decide if they rate them or not but I wouldn’t expect they change their investment style until given reason to.
Thanks Perky...a point of time indeed...the sharemarket is a weird beast.
cheers.