Clearly! :-)
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The Bioguard website added this recently: "Currently, BioGuard is available at CostCo on line[,] with expansion plans to begin carrying it in CostCo warehouses in the Fall of 2010." Fall would mean in a few months presumably. That's ambiguous though on whether it will begin in all warehouses then, or begin then a rollout into all warehouses. But it would sound like all warehouses one way or another, wouldn't it? Good news one way or another I'd have said. http://www.imagenetix.net/branded-pr...ced-probiotic/
Are Nature's Plus experimenting with other packaging? Are these aimed at airports perhaps? Or supermarkets?
http://i.ebayimg.com/05/!BqJmbU!CGk~...mLkQhw~~_3.JPG
http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll...=263602_263622
Oddly, currently I can find no reference to this anywhere except on Ebay. So this link may not last. It was dated April 5.
In case you already can't see it, the photo is a collection of small packets that look designed to hang off those little hooks at the counters of stores, like packets of sweets do. The whole thing is described as:
21 travel Packs Mix Vitamins & Minerals - Nature's Plus
2 Gold tablets - 3 tabs each pak
2 Tooth Fairy - 2 animals each pak
2 Green & Red - 3 tabs each pak
2 Tummy zyme - 1 animals each pak
2 Shot-o-B12 - 1 lozenge each pak
2 Red mini-tabs - 6 tabs each pak
2 probiotic - 2 lozenge each pak
3 Power teen for him - 2 tabs each pak
2 Power teen for her - 2 tabs each pak
2 Power teen immune booster - 2 tabs each pak
However, here is another single serve concept from them that does seem to be readily available. http://www.luckyvitamin.com/p-30975-...lavor-39-grams
This is good news. I wish that I had some cash to buy more BLT. There must be a high probability of very good news coming out in the next quarterly report which impact the share price.
That Ebay item is priced at $3.99, and also says, "All Brand new - Less 20 cents each pak". If so, and if that implied they are already on sale somewhere, they would appear to be selling for an average 39 cents a pack [ = ($3.99 + 21 times "20 cents off")/21 packs = 39 cents, or $8.19 total for the 21 packs.] The 21 packs appear to contain 50 tabs in total, or 16 cents a tab. Only some of them contain Blis. Presumably the packets of each product may each have a different price if bought separately, if they are for sale at all. (As always, do your own maths. Corrections welcome.)
In that article Bobby found a few weeks ago, http://www.moosylvania.com/blog/file...ason+quote.pdf , it said, "I’ve seen some of the products our contract manufacturers in the States have put together and they are more akin to sweets." And, "Washington-Smith says a dose of K12 adds about four US cents to a product, be it a lozenge or a pot of yoghurt."
Now, if little packets like that were hanging in supermarkets and/or airport counters for 39 cents each, that could make for pretty handy sales maybe? What a pity I can find no trace on the net of this apart from this one unexpected photograph.
Am I missing something here, or is this potentially a pretty interesting development? What a pity we have no idea if any of this conjecture on pricing and marketing is real. Still, the packets in the photo presumably exist, and that at least is definitely interesting, regardless of whether they are actually currently on sale, cheaply or otherwise.
This Nature's Plus product, Source of Life® Tablets, http://www.naturesplus.com/products/...56&category=15 , refers to a "sample pack" of 3 tablets. So maybe I'm reading too much into that photograph? No photo of that sample pack though, and no reference to one for Tooth Fairy, which appears to be in the ebay photo.
Still, maybe I'm not reading too much into it. These are by Nature's Plus, a fairly similar concept maybe, and selling for around $1. http://www4.shopping.com/xPO-Nature-...g-Energy-Drink They are definitely interested in selling smaller doses for small prices, it would seem.
Time will tell ... as always. Results late next week would be my guess. Bioguard results are due in the next week or two also.
Someone is spending some money on pushing the K12 message in Canada.
Check out:
http://www.npicenter.com/anm/templat...27080&zoneid=2
Here is a couple of bits from it:
Multiple medalist Kristina Groves will open the largest conference and trade show in Western Canada for the natural health and organic products industry, Expo West 2010, May 13-16
While an Olympian opens the trade show, superstar experts will be speaking to retailers in the conference program, May 13-14, preceding the show. Just a few of the stars in the lineup includes the following:
• Professor John Tagg – 'germ warfare' expert and discoverer of BLIS K12, a unique probiotic, shown to reduce tooth decay and gum disease
He is only one of three people to get a mention. A superstar? Hehe, I wonder what Prof Tagg would make of that?
I'm gonna take a stab at the full year results cause I can! I did last year and came pretty close. We will see how I do this year...
Revenue $2,800,000
Profit (after preference dividend expenses) $150,000
Dividend on Ordinary Shares Nil
Anyone else wanna try their luck?
Yes, it's great to see the Canadians going at it with such interest.
But they're one of the reasons why I won't have a guess. The results seem to me to be dependent on a several key things, such as:
Income: How well have the Canadians done in the time available; How well did Bioguard do; Has all Nature's Plus' activity translated into sales, in which case maybe it did pretty well; Are the large number of other manufacturers getting results (Dr Sinatra now sells a 6 month supply, for example); How has Japan gone, given the large population and the relatively high price (it is now on quite a number of web sites); Has Tooth Fairy made a market?
Expenses: Was the GRAS cost in the first half, or is it ongoing, and has the cost grown; Is Europe eating up legal costs now with it's tough regime; What other registrations are on the boil (in other countries, and with more products); Are marketing costs increasing?
Your guess on 2.8 revenue is quite plausible, but requires quite a growth in sales. If so, could it grow even more? And again, maybe it didn't grow so well. ie. The 2.8 requires doubling of sales perhaps from last half, in which case it might as easily have been 1.5 times, or 2.5 times, or some other result. Finding out just how fast sales grew will be one of the most fascinating pieces of the news.
And profit, in my guess, will be heavily dependent on extra costs, as I think we have been given clues the cost of sales is quite reasonable. Extra costs could be legal in particular, or just extra costs of expansion.
My wild card would be that Japan has done pretty well, and maybe even Taiwan. (And I would be pleased to hear that BLT is growing outside the US anyway, for strategic reasons.) Other key bits of news I hope: toothpaste, GRAS, Nestle, yoghurt, NZ.
So your guess of 2.8 is quite possible, but I'm optimistically hoping higher. The profit guess of 150,000 (about 0.5m before prefs) is quite loaded with expenses, and I would hope it would be higher with that revenue.
Don't know, Chippie. Given the quiet action on the share price now, probably one week before the results, I'm not sure how much reaction there is going to be after any news either. That award seems to have produced almost no interest, for instance. My worst outcome would be for the BLT shares to remain tantalisingly cheap, and thus continue to soak up my cash more than I would like!
That is one of the downsides of the NZ market; there are not a lot of buyers so many companies are discounted by the market. The share price is unlikely to do anything until they report significant sales or a profit. There is another possibility of a takeover, which happens to a lot of quality companies that are undervalued on the NZX. Fletcher Energy is a good example of a NZ company picked up by a multinational for next to nothing.
Happily, Barry was wise enough to put a lot of work into setting things up last year so that that is now unlikely. We've been very, very lucky to have someone with such clear insight of what needs doing on all fronts.
The current mood of world sharemarkets probably isn't an easy time to release news of any type. Watching reactions to the BLT news at this time could yet be an interesting lesson in how people react under stress maybe.
$2.8M is a good number and it fits in with Grant Washington-Smith's statement - "as much as NZ$3M". I'm picking that he was being conservative and it will exceed $3M.
I still say that M18 is the real growth area and the really interesting part will be an announcement to support a couple of other quotes from that document by Grant
Applications for M18 are likely to include chewing gum, toothpaste and mouthwashes.
and
“Our yoghurt delivery system is well advanced,”
All sounds good but i don't see this translating into revenue any time soon. K12 can't be put in food or toothpaste etc yet in the US so I can't see M18 beating it to market!
And as there aren't any K12 food products in NZ or Aussi I can't see M18 beating it to market either. That is assuming M18 has approval for food use in NZ and Aussi which I am doubting.
Good things take time. Too much time sometimes!
I agree with all that. But surely they must have made significant progress in those areas. An announcement of such is what I am looking for. In the past they have made significant announcements at regular intervals.
As an aside the sellers are drying up. There were some at 17 and 18 cents and they have disappeared today - maybe they think that they will get more in a week or two...
Hi Cannibal - where do you get the info from on the number of sellers and the price of 17 & 18 cents from? I guess share brokers can source this info, but is it available on the web? My FinData web page quotes an "ask" price of 11 cents for BLT today. Interesting how the BLT SP has held given the volatility in other shares at the moment .........
I guess the share price is hiolding up because people are expecting good news. Jut how good is the only point of discussion.
Regarding the 17 and 18 cents, Direct Broking shows me that. The current bidders and sellers are as follows -
BidsQuantity- No. -Price
100,000----https://www.directbroking.co.nz/Dire...ges/spacer.gif---2---- 10.5
100,000https://www.directbroking.co.nz/Dire...pth_before.gif------1------ 7
100,000https://www.directbroking.co.nz/Dire...pth_before.gif -----1----- 4.5
100,000https://www.directbroking.co.nz/Dire...pth_before.gif -----1 ------4
AsksPrice--- No.----- Quantity
11----------- 1----- -1,998
https://www.directbroking.co.nz/Dire...ges/spacer.gif11.1 ---------1 ------2,670https://www.directbroking.co.nz/Dire...pth_before.gif
11.9 ----------2------63,450https://www.directbroking.co.nz/Dire...pth_before.gif
12 ------------3 -----121,353https://www.directbroking.co.nz/Dire...pth_before.gif
Recent Trades
Price--- Volume---- -Time
11--------502------ 11:41
11------ 19,498 ----10:56
We've been talking about the possible financial results quite a bit lately, not surprisingly.
But I thought it wouldn't hurt to just remember the bigger picture here. We're pretty keen to hear if there is a maiden profit, but the overall position will be what most of us want to hear even more than that. A brief history:
2001 - Company listed
2001-2006 Much effort, but winning strategy not found
2006 - Current CEO contracted to review (March), dietary supplements mentioned soon after, appointed CEO August
2007 - Nestle deal announced (March), Pharmabroker take over NZ sales (April), Rights Issue (Nov), Talk of cornerstone shareholder
2008 - Internal work on jobs and costs and packaging, cornerstone shareholder, Frutarom (Oct), first US ingredient product (Dec)
2009 - Rights issue (March), flood of products in US, opened in Japan, Taiwan, M18, talk of yoghurt and food, Costco
2010 - Canada, Korea, Chewing gum, award.
Current position : well accepted in the ingredients market, now on sale in countries with 500+ million population, skill and intent to market to those people a lot more, food and other products in the wings, Nestle progress expected, other unknown deals in the wings.
Corrections welcome.
Just some ongoing progress:
Here's an ad for CulturedCare in the Vancouver Sun, if you're interested. We don't get to see the advertising much on the net. http://akimages.crossmediaservices.c...es/7665633.jpg
Meanwhile, Bioguard is $4 off again at Costco, and now has 5 reviews - the extra one is very positive.
Also, some of you will have noticed the BLT facebook page is getting into gear. http://www.facebook.com/pages/BLIS-T...06885549355004
Great links - thansk again.
Blis released their 6 month figures on November 12th 2009. That is 1 day short of 6 months ago. Not long now...
People might be interested in Sealegs announcing a maiden profit yesterday. http://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX/SLG/...-Maiden-Profit
The share price went from 17 cents to 26 cents on the day, after announcing a profit of $642,000 (before share option costs, 406k after) on 79 million shares (according to the NZX page). So PE doesn't have to be a constraint at maiden profit time.
So, all up, plenty of room to believe BLT doesn't have to be trapped by the PE on a maiden profit. Which makes sense: instinct would tell you that if they announce a maiden profit and a lot of good news for the next result, then surely the share price should rise in proportion, and not get stuck in arcane maths at that point.
It's payday for preference shares today - hopefully for most of us therefore. 5 cents today per preference share. http://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX/BLT/...-Year-Dividend
The dividend is 10 cents pa per $1 preference share, and every 45 ordinary shares owned last year was eligible to buy one $1 preference share. (http://www.blis.co.nz/userfiles/file...%20%20Loan.pdf) The ordinary shares were worth say 4 cents at the time, or $1.80 for 45. By putting in the $1, investors then had a $2.80 investment, with a 10 cent return, or 3.57% return on their entire BLT holding.
In that year, then, BLT shareholders who coughed up for the preference shares have had a 3.57% average dividend and a solid capital gain to boot. Not too bad. I think we forget that this company is already pumping out dividends to shareholders.
Corrections welcome, as always.
We missed this new product, in Australia. Another country using Blis for dietary supplements. It appeared on the net at the end of March.
http://www.phytohealth.com.au/oral-probiotics.html
And here's an ad for it in "The Senior NSW" Magazine: http://seniornsw.realviewtechnologie...ge=page0000055 Its's in both the March and April editions.
Nicely found Simla
GoogleAlerts let me down as I didn't receive anything for this product!
I have completed the form and look forward to receiving a sample, or info, or nothing...
Time for another product list update. Simla, I haven't made it fancy like you suggested. Unfortunately I am too busy of late. Feel free to take ownership of the list and tart it up as much as you fancy.
K12:
Natures Plus - Adult's Ear, Nose & Throat Lozenges with K12 Probiotics -- Tropical Cherry
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/...54&category=28
Natures Plus - Animal Parade® Children's Chewable Inner Ear Support
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/...49&category=12
Swanson - Ultra Oral Probiotic
http://www.swansonvitamins.com/SWU519/ItemDetail?n=0
Imagenetix - Bioguard
http://bioguardhealth.com/
Solaray - Oral Flora
http://www.smartbomb.com/slr12698.html
VegLife - Ear, Nose & Throat Shield
http://www.vitaminlife.com/product-e...+Throat+Shield
LEF - Advanced Oral Hygiene
http://www.lef.org/Vitamins-Suppleme...l-Hygiene.html
Biogenesis - Pro Flora Oral Health Chewables
http://www.bio-genesis.com/productpa...al-health.html
Epoca
http://www.takachanmarket.com/produc...oduct_id=17325
Healthy Directions - Ear, Nose & Throat Defense
http://drsinatra.net/Products2.aspx?ProductID=BL12
True Botanicas - True Defense for Kids™
http://www.truebotanica.com/store/pr...seforKids.aspx
True Botanicas - True Defense for Adults
http://www.mytruedefense.com/index.htm
Cultured Care - Probiotic Gum
http://culturedcare.com/
KSS66
http://www.leonbio.com/goods.php?id=2
Bio-Kick Throat Shield Daily (rebranded Blis Throat Guard Daily)
http://www.lab-avenue.com/product_in...37&language=en
Bio-Kick Throat Shield Strong (rebranded Blis Throat Guard Boost)
http://www.lab-avenue.com/product_in...38&language=en
OralHealth PLUS
http://www.phytohealth.com.au/oral-probiotics.html
KForce
Aktiv-k12
Blis Throat Guard Daily
http://blis.co.nz/?go=Consumers&c=BL...at-Guard-Daily
Blis Throat Guard Boost
http://blis.co.nz/?go=Consumers&c=BL...at-Guard-Boost
Blis Travel Guard
http://blis.co.nz/?go=Consumers&c=BL...p=Travel-Guard
Blis Bio Restore
http://blis.co.nz/?go=Consumers&c=BL...&p=Bio-Restore
Blis Fresh Breath Kit
http://blis.co.nz/?go=Consumers&c=BL...esh-Breath-Kit
Blis Rapid Eze Gargle
http://blis.co.nz/?go=Consumers&c=BL...pid-EZE-Gargle
M18:
Natures Plus - Animal Parade® Tooth Fairy™ Children’s Chewable Dental Probiotic
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/...48&category=12
Natures Plus - Adult’s Dental Care Probiotic Lozenges - Peppermint
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/...83&category=22
Includes K12 and M18:
Natures Plus - Whole Food Total Body Cleanse with Açai (Vegetarian Capsules)
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/...uctNumber=1120
Natures Plus Ultra Lipoic™ Bi-Layered Mini-Tab
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/...24&category=29
Natures Plus Ultra Lipoic™ Bi-Layered Tablets
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/...20&category=29
Natures Plus Ultra Probiotics Vegetarian Capsules
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/...uctNumber=4385
Natures Plus POWER TEEN® For Him Chewable Multi - Wild Berry
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/...02&category=11
Natures Plus POWER TEEN® For Her Chewable Multi - Wild Berry
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/...04&category=11
Natures Plus POWER TEEN® Immune Booster Chewable Multi - Wild Berry
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/...06&category=11
Natures Plus Source of Life® GOLD Tablets
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/...11&category=15
Natures Plus Source of Life® GOLD Vcaps
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/...16&category=15
Natures Plus Source of Life® GOLD Mini-Tabs
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/...14&category=15
Natures Plus Source of Life® GOLD Energy Shake - Tropical Berry (available in two product formats (can or packet))
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/...48&category=15
I was in Melbourne over the weekend and checked out one of the (very busy) chemist shops in the Elizabeth St; I asked whether they stocked Blis K12 products and got blank looks. I wonder how well known Blis is in Australia?
I'm pretty sure Blis is not sold in Australia under that name, Brucea, although you can buy it on the internet. K12 has been available via Breezecare for bad breath, but their site says, "KForce, Balance and Breeze Products are all manufactured and developed by Dr Speiser and BreezeCare Pty Ltd. These are not commercial products and therefore are not available through retail stores such as chemists or supermarkets. Due to the special nature of our treatments, our products are only available for purchase directly through our worldwide websites or our clinics." http://breezecare.com.au That's why I was pleased to see this new product in Australia.
Thanks for the update, Emearg.
I won't reformat the list, Emearg, as I think on reflection that that makes it less accessible for others. However, here is a copy of that list without all the links, and in vaguely alphabetic format instead, just in case that helps anyone.
Blis:
Throat Guard Daily, Throat Guard Boost, Travel Guard, Bio Restore, Fresh Breath Kit, Rapid Eze Gargle
Natures Plus:
Animal Parade® Tooth Fairy™, Adult’s Dental Care, Whole Food Total Body Cleanse with Açai, Ultra Lipoic™ Bi-Layered Mini-Tab, Ditto Tablets, Ultra Probiotics Vegetarian Capsules, POWER TEEN® For Him, POWER TEEN® For Her, POWER TEEN® Immune Booster, Source of Life® GOLD Tablets, Ditto Vcaps, Ditto Mini-Tabs, Ditto Energy Shake (can or packet), Adult's Ear, Nose & Throat, Animal Parade® Children's Chewable Inner Ear Support
Aktiv-k12
Biogenesis - Pro Flora Oral Health Chewables
Bio-Kick Throat Shield Daily, Bio-Kick Throat Shield Strong
Cultured Care - Probiotic Gum
Epoca
Healthy Directions - Ear, Nose & Throat Defense
Imagenetix - Bioguard
LEF - Advanced Oral Hygiene
KForce
KSS66
OralHealth PLUS
Solaray - Oral Flora
Swanson - Ultra Oral Probiotic
True Botanicas - True Defense for Kids™, True Defense for Adults
VegLife - Ear, Nose & Throat Shield
This seems to be new in Taiwan as well:
http://www.probio.com.tw/big5/news_01.asp?SerialNo=157
http://store.pchome.com.tw/ec_store/M06099621.htm
Throat Guard now seems to be on sale. Previously I'm pretty sure I've only seen the Fresh Breath Kit there, and one says "Release Date: 2010/5/3".
This is being advertised as an oral probiotic, whereas the other was a fresh breath kit. Has there been some regulatory permission come through, perhaps? Or is this nothing more than adding a new product? Either way, it is market development, and that's good.
The 2009 rights issue documentation http://www.blis.co.nz/userfiles/file...l_13032009.pdf said, "A major food company in Taiwan had previously been in the initial stages of development of food and oral healthcare product applications for BLIS K12 but due to a change in the company’s priorities this did not result in the earlier anticipated release of new products in late 2008. However, the Company is now in the process of continuing with these and other projects through Frutarom."
And the 2009 report http://www.blis.co.nz/userfiles/file...ort%202009.pdf said, "While an earlier project in Taiwan has been delayed, additional projects have now commenced through Frutarom. Early progress in this market will be subject to regulatory approval."
So, does the appearance of Throat Guard represent a change in regulatory approval? Who knows. Always fun to wonder though. Perhaps the annual results will tell us something.
But wait, there's more. This web site gives a Canadian address and has Blis Throat Guard for sale too. Is the Blis brand name going to be seen around the world then, perhaps?
http://www.oravitalorders.com/Produc...%20-%20Vanilla
Wow these guys know how to charge for all their products. I can only assume that people must be prepared to pay these prices.
$54 Canadian for 1x packet of throat guard, which must be very profitable! I noticed that it is the standard packaging so assume that BLT will be wholesaling the product for a reasonable price?
I passed through Auckland airport to Thailand this week. There were 5 bottles of Travelguard at the passenger's only pharmacy ... tucked away on a shelf where only someone searching for them would see them.
No effort at marketing them whatsoever ...and with a price of just over $27 per bottle they are rather overpriced I thought.
Results out
http://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX/BLT/...l-Year-Results
Highlights:
The Company made a loss from trading activities, excluding financing costs, of $99k for the full year to 31 March
2010
After deducting financing costs, the total loss for the financial year was $482k (2009:
$488k)
The Company’s net cash outflows from operations increased from $156k in 2009 to $372k in 2010
Whilst cash inflow from trading revenue and interest increased by $718k, payments to suppliers and employees
increased by $772k
Revenue for the year increased by 64% to $1,888k. Product sales have increased by 103% to $1,238k primarily
due to the increase in sales in the United States and Asia
NZ revenue has increased by 31% as a result of the marketing campaign developed with Pharmabroker NZ,
achieving $192k. The New Zealand market is a small but important test market for the Company
Is that announcement all you guys going to get .... thats not a full year announcement .... just another rave to wind you guys up
Don't even say what the revenues were .... they say +64% which suppose means revenues were $1.88m ... you guys must be gutted with that ... some way off $3m
You guys keep on about NZ punters not supporting (buying) companies like BLT on the stock exchange but heck if that it is the quality of information they hand to shareholders as an full year result announcement they don't deserve any shareholders
Ah --- full repprt finally posted
Revenues $1.888m ..,, total loss $482m about the same as last year
Capitalise a lot of their expenses don't they
As you say, some way off $3m. I confess to being somewhat puzzled by those results. Massively positive on the business-development front, and heaps better revenue than last year (1.9 vs 1.1), but the second half revenue doesn't seem to have grown from the first half.
What I found interesting in the report was "According to Costco, the Oct-Nov 2009 trial in 54 stores was
successful and a full launch is now scheduled for this product throughout the US chain of Costco stores, later in 2010 to coincide with the start of the fall-winter season." So I am not giving up on BLT any time soon...
Yes, I'm certainly hanging on to my shares regardless of no profit.
The sales market is developing very strongly.
- "In the North American market, more than 25 products have now been launched"
- "In Taiwan, Singapore and Malaysia the first products have been launched in the market."
- "Further progress has been made in Japan by Frutarom Asia. There are now two products in the Japanese market with several products in the final stages of product development. It is anticipated some of these new products will be launched in the next twelve months."
- "...business development projects are in progress in the Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam and in India. Early progress in some of these markets, such as Indonesia will be subject to regulatory approval."
- "[GRAS] is now anticipated in late 2010."
- "The clinical trial undertaken by Nestle Nutrition is scheduled for completion in 2010. If the outcome of this clinical trial is successful, it is anticipated that royalty payments could be generated in 2011, with the commercial launch of an infant formula product containing BLIS K12 as an ingredient."
- Progress in China
Obviously we were hoping for higher sales. No getting around that. Nevertheless, Blis products appear to be manufactured now in US (309m), Canada (34m), Japan (128m), Taiwan (23m), Singapore(5m), Malaysia (28m), Australia (22m) and NZ (4m). Its got to add up to a fair profit sooner or later.
Trading loss=99k less stock adjustment 73k= 26k loss. Last year $463k loss.
Debatable if costs associated with Convertible Preference Shares is purely an expense item. Dividend on ordinary shares isn't. Makes sense to look at trading loss.
Its really worse than 'doesn't seem to have grown from the first half'
Look at sales of the stuff they actually sell (leave out all the licensing R&D and interest) and H@ sales were $574k against H1 sales of $663k .... and the $574 isn;t that much more than the $450k in H2 of last years
Half year product sales trend (last 4 quarters) is $158k, $450k, $663k and now $574k ..... results that don't seem to match the hype - how many amazing success stories can you fit into a annual report .... BLT must have set a record
All smoke and mirrors .... fancy a company with corner dairy takings even being listed
Sorry guys but the best of wishes
Trading revenue (excluding licensing, interest) increased from $608k to $1,237k.
No, this isn't smoke and mirrors. The product is great, as most people agree when they use it. The demand is there, too. The manufacturers are snapping it up. And if NZ sales (with minimum advertising) were scaled to the over 500m population it is now spreading to, then sales would be over 25m already. And the company is definitely highly competent. And Nature's Plus wouldn't be going with extra products if they weren't selling the old products. But, yes, last half sales are a puzzle.
Total cash burn for Y10 $1.3m thats after revenue of $1.9m :ohmy:
Notes to the Accounts >$3mil future cash flow savings from tax.
A clue from the Operations Report: "In January 2010, BLIS Technologies and Pharmabroker Sales undertook a detailed market research assessment of the top selling retail brands in retail pharmacy for the oral health category, from the research company Synovate. The data showed that the Throat Guard brand held the 5th ranked position in pharmacy, for products in the medicated throat care and preventative throat care category based on dollar sales."
trader ... obviously somebody who knows the ins and outs of BLT maybe you can enlighten us what the future P&L impact is from amortising the $1.7m of capitalised development costs currently on the balance sheet
Also is it fair to assume that the rate of increase in development costs will continue so another decent lump will be capitalised in 2011 or are the research people working to full capacity and that sort of caps the cost at somewhere near this year level
One other question - who is the customer who buys ~$750k a year .... if not related to research agreements a fair chunk of real product sales goes to one customer eh
Which is not to say that most people like the product. I don't, and don't know anyone who does. Sorry to seem negative, because I wish all the enthusiasts well; but this stuff is nowhere near off the ground, and I can't see anything that shows it ever will catch on. There are heaps of snake oil products selling well, and even highly questionable junk voo-doo stuff with no proof of anything (magnetic blankets) that sell well. Blis just hasn't hit the consumer spot yet, and may never do. This in spite of the fact that Blis seems to be a legitimate health product rather than snake oil, but that's not what sells this sort of stuff.
Personally I swear by the product. For years I have had chronic halitosis and not even my Dentist had any ideas on what I could do. Now I use the fresh breath kit about 5 times a year and never ever worry about bad breath anymore. This is a massive benefit to my confidence when talking to people now.
Now our whole family uses K12 whenever we start to get the sniffles and I believe it does help our health in the winter time.
Read Notes to the Financial Statements #1. It explains all about criteria for capitalisation and amortisation/depreciation.
Are you left speechless then, Emearg! Have faith. This is the first real speed wobble we've seen from Blis in two or three years. The Board will all be keen to see better sales, if only because they all have substantial holdings in the company.
The company still sells great products, has quite a bit of cash, has excellent abilities, and is making terrific business progress. And everyone is free to clearly express themselves directly to the company with opinions and suggestions on the results, as I have already done and I'm sure others have too. Obviously we shareholders will now be much more cautious in our expectations on sales until we see more evidence of sales growth, but everything else was nevertheless good news.
If a large % of sales are in the USA during their cold seasons should we expect one ½ of the year to have larger sales than the other
Chippie, I agree that the Blis products do work. I used to use the fresh breath kit but found it rather a hassle with the protocol of mouthwash and taking the lozenges at set intervals during the day. For the past year I have switched to taking the daily Throatguard lozenges and they have been great! Also easier to make it part of the daily routine. No problem with bad breath and no complications like sinusitis that I used to get with colds. When I do get a cold I get over it very quickly since taking K12. I suspect Blis will come up with some more interesting applications for K12. That is why I continue to believe that Blis will be a success story, but accept that this may still take time. Maybe those of us in the "Blis fan club" were overly optimistic this time around!
Sorry, guys. I usually try to contribute something, but this time I still can't think of anything more to say than "puzzled". One thing's clear, however, and that's that there are limits to what you can learn from the net. We get data, but you can still interpret that data in many ways. It looks like Emearg probably correctly interpreted the effect of the seasonal withdrawal of Bioguard on sales revenue though.
Very clearly, though, the company has a ton of momentum. The only logical thing we can do is wait to see what transpires next. AGM on 30 July is presumably the next source of news.
Yep - puzzled is the word.
Everything is tracking along nicely and it does not seem to compute.
If the seasonal Costco has that big an effect on the sales then I can't wait for it to be in every store - ka-ching!
Who else had heart failure at the recent sell at 3.5cents? An error by the NZX apparently.
I had a suggestion here to gather info, but I withdraw it as too complicated. Back to watching what develops next.
By the way, I boldly declared that I will certainly be holding my shares, while simultaneously declaring I'm puzzled. That's not strictly logical is it, so I would just like to defend my sanity and say that naturally I have always kept my options open like any investor and naturally I always will. After that aside, back to waiting for more news, the basis of all investment decisions.
There's the usual customary silence here when there's unexpected news.
The situation is other than we thought it might be, but time mercilessly moves on and our job as investors is to each look at the actual situation and form a fresh view, as always. The company never promised strong sales growth, we just assumed it from the evidence of new product issues. The company did promise to deliver new outlets and product formats on the other hand, and has indeed delivered, as they do on pretty well everything they say. The company report remains upbeat, and the current share price is still so low that only a small eventual profit is needed to justify it. The surprise is that sales growth may take a while yet, and in an increasingly nervous world. Yes, we will be more cautious in our expectations on sale growth, but don't the low share price and the enormous momentum and ability of this company still make for a pretty promising investment? I'm still puzzled, but surely the main impact of this news is just to change expectations of timing.
simla - see if trader can solve your puzzle - he appears to be the unofficial (or maybe official) investor relations guy at BLT with the inside oil
Set out why you are puzzled ... you might be surprised what the outcome is
where was the unexpected news?
some posters have been comparing numbers of internet web sites to sales figures.
some posters have been hyping this company up way beyond what the company actually is......... at this stage.
some posters have only recently invested in the company and don't know or don't look at its long history of promises unfulfilled.
it took ten years to get to this stage, it will take a while to get back to positive territory..... (we all have different views of positive territory)
in my view i expected nothing more........
when m18 becomes mainstream, or k12 is in general foods will i expect real sp movement.
until then, holding this stock is a waste of investment money....
there are a few of us out there that have been holding for donkeys years waiting for blis products to go mainstream,
those few of us long term suffers hold millions of shares, waiting for a chance to off load for a profit or a break even.
having said that, the lesson i learn't from investing in blis 9 - 10 years ago has been a valuable one.
many seasoned posters on share trader have a blis type company in their investing history.
as long as you hold a promising but non producing share for endless time, you are missing out on investment growth on producing shares.
im still holding volumes of blis, because there not worth dumping now, after what i paid for them, and i still have an optimistic hope that one day............ k12 and m18 will hit mainstream.
That's probably a pretty good summation of things Neopole.
Those of use who invested in Blis a long time back will see Fridays result as same old, same old.
I agree that Blis won't make any real progress untill they get there product into the general foods market as an ingrediant. Then they can get some bulk sales going without having to bear the costs of marketing,distribution,etc.
It does look like that is where they are heading so hopefully in the not too distant future some results might start coming through. But it would take some real evidence of this before I would jump back in.
Nice to see you guys, and thanks for the feedback. Me, I definitely don't have any inside oil, and have always seen this group as discussing publicly available information. I've always said that, as I've always made clear I'm never advising anybody to buy, sell or trade anything - each must make his own decisions.
I started posting two and a half years ago because I could see that the company had changed direction and I wanted the advantage of discussing the situation. Since then the company has made massive progress and really couldn't be any better poised for success than it is surely. That doesn't make it a dead cert, but it would be pretty hard not to say this is an exceptional company now. The big question now is whether it will hit big sales, as pretty well all others issues have been dealt with. What I'm puzzled about is why sales did not grow last half given that it was available from quite a number of manufacturers by then, although pretty obviously times are tough out there these days, and markets take time to build.
Yes, clearly we've taken the number of websites and products to mean too much progress in present sales. Or some of us have, and others have disagreed over the same time period, and that's the advantage of group discussions. But hyped it up too much? No, I don't think so. They're making great progress and it's not like the share price is miles ahead of the results or anything. But yes, some of us over-hoped on sales progress last half as it's turned out (although I also expressed quite a few reservations for those that were looking, as did pretty well everyone I think, there's no certainty here yet.)
I built up my position over that two and half years, but haven't done much since the price went up. But it hasn't been a waste of money at all over that time. The price has gone up and so have the sales figures. It's still well ahead of having bought a bond during that time, for instance, or heaps of other shares. I know a lot of people regret buying in to the first few years. I think NZ really hasn't had much startup experience before, and we're all learning just how long these things take. Quite a few companies haven't made it, of course.
No, I'm not an insider of any sort. But, yes, I've got a lot of time for Blis. It's a battler and it's always great to see a battler winning. To judge by the comments here over time, I think even the most cynical posters here feel the same way. It's good to have BLT on the market.
Well done Simla!
Wow, checking back into this forum for the first time in over a year (and having since sold my BLT shares at 33% of what I bought them for), I'm surprised not to see the euphoria simla and others used to spread in this forum when I last logged on....what's happening? Just seeing the latest result, I think the sales figures, after so many years, are still pathetic considering how many mouths this company has to feed before shareholders see a cent (which is years and years off, guys, unless the company goes bust before....let's hope it won't). Anyway, just wanted to wish you good luck - hopefully some of you might break even....
Sorry to hear that you got burnt on BLT - a 67% loss is the pits.
"hopefully some of you might break even.... " Not a case of hopefully - I am 150% ahead and looking forward to increasing that. Great company going places and it has got my long term vote.
Heh.
I bought a bucket load at 4 cents. Sold batches off at between 10.5 cents and 14 cents. Enough to pay for my original "investment". Now happy to hold my "free" shares and cash them in in 2-3 years time for a dollar or so. Dreams are free but the company is heading in the right direction and I think that will not be far off the mark.
I wish that my other decisions were so fruitful - getting pasted on Aussie mining specs shares lately.
FinData recently updated their web page and much to my initial dismay shows the following for my BLTPA holding!!... obviously a glitch in their system ...but let's hope it is not some omen.....
Symbol Exchange Last Change Price (Avg.) Shares Cost (NZD) Value (NZD) Gain/Loss
BLTPA NZX 2.9000 0.0000 0.00 1.9000 6,000 $11,460.00 $0.00 -$11,460.00 100.00
The tabs in my previous post don't quite match up but it shows a net value of zero and a 100%loss ....ah well....some of you guys will chortle over this!
Sorry to hear you've been bankrupted due to computer error, Brucea. Good to see you taking it with sang froid. Not enough of that about these days.
Let's go fractal. Many people will be be aware of the beautiful mandelbrot pictures, which are a specific subset of fractals eg. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ma..._tail_part.jpg
Snowflakes are famously fractal in shape, and so are share price movements. Everybody is familiar with share prices lurching up and down randomly all over the place, while nevertheless forming trands over periods of time. Basically for our purposes, fractal theory says that a share price will get somewhere via a series of jagged movements. I'm assuming sales growth should follow a similar pattern, as they are both markets. (I apologise for my loose use of fractals here, for anyone who actually understands them properly!)
Secondly, add in the fact that Blis has multiple products in multiple market segments and multiples countries, cities and regions. I think we haven't allowed for that at all. It is a unique feature of Blis that is otherwise only seen in quite established companies with established sales volumes.
So now we're presented with sales volumes being the sum of many fractal movements, instead of a single figure increasing vaguely linearly. In addition to each product market, we also have the fractal movements of the world economy. Thus sales volume is the sum of fractal movements in the world economy, each product, each market, each product format and future probiotic developments (such as M18 already.)
Demonstrating this (?), and by my maths anyway, corrections welcome, these are six-monthly figures for some markets : New Zealand .. 134, 58 United States .. 325, 368, 392 Other .. 161, 122. Each market is seemingly doing its own thing.
Now, each product/market has its own natural character, chiefly comprising of scale and volatility. From a fractal point of view, we would say: how big will any sudden movement be, and how frequenty might it happen. The world economy presently has large lurches and they are happening very often, so they contribute heavily at present. Individual product outlets will have different features too. Costco sales might expect to have occasional large movements because of its size, but we don't know how often that might happen. Some of Blis's smaller products might be expected to only move up or down by quite small amounts, on the other hand. Some countries will probably be more stable than others. The food ingredients market might contribute large movements but that might be often or rarely. And so on.
Sometimes, the sum of these fractal movements will produce negative growth in total, as just happened last half, when world volatility has been very high and with a negative trend. Fractal implies randomness. For instance, opening in 400 Costco stores will not necessarily produce simply 8 times the same result as opening in 50.
If this view is relevant - and I only put it forward as a possibility - it means that investors face a very difficult task in guessing what sales volumes will be over the next few years. They may blossom very quickly, or take much longer, or go with fits and starts of sudden growth between slow patches - any outcome would be completely consistent with fractal theory! Except that a trend will emerge over time. Those who like to time their entry will find that challenging.
Anyway, it feels okay to me. I'm still cautious about sales volumes expectations, but I'm dropping "puzzled". Fractal theory says a few blades of grass will come up randomly first in a new lawn and others won't, but the rest will follow later anyway - the randomness of the first blades does not imply the others are not coming. The blades are coming up, and I'm content to sit back and watch. Progress is increasingly rapid now. But each investor must make his own decision, of course, as always.
Having now worked through my initial puzzlement, I can belatedly remember what I should have done a week ago: publicly thank the company for all its very hard work and enormous enthusiasm. The achievements of these talented people are very impressive, without doubt. Thank you.
God I enjoy reading this thread.
It just puts a smile on my face.:)
If you mean that literally, then yes, why not be happy. If enjoyment from investing is entirely conditional on profit, then we're just putting our happiness in the hands of random events. What's the point of that? I aim to enjoy regardless. And I'm certainly not going to be phased by unexpected results from Blis, which has way to go before it reaches the low risk category! I have money on the line here, but I don't let money rule my emotions.
And if you are being droll, then don't worry, I'm not rolling over on on this stuff. The current management has only been there three years. The first products from that rolled off the blocks only 18 months ago, and virtually all of the current revenue is new since then. In addition, literally dozens of business deals are now in place too. I can't see the logic in thinking things are going badly when so much success is evident.
So either way, thanks!
I don't think we realise in NZ just how grim it is overseas. Recent quotes about the US:
"It’s frightening," said Professor Tim Congdon from International Monetary Research. "The plunge in [US] M3 has no precedent since the Great Depression."
"The [NY] Federal Reserve considers the record rate of mortgage delinquencies, foreclosures and their impacts on communities an urgent problem."
"The number of defaults for loans of more than $20 million is increasing rapidly for all product types, including office, industrial, retail and large apartment complexes...Phoenix is at the front end of a major crash."
"32 States Borrow $37.8 Billion Total to Make Unemployment Payments"
"Since 1986, 15 million high-paying manufacturing jobs have left the US and American workers."
"College Grads about to Flood Labor Market; Class of 2009 Still Without Jobs in Deep Trouble "
"I can tell you that around here, the commercial space that was empty a year ago is still empty today. And I’m talking even about the prime locations."
Real unemployment 16-22% according to shadowstats.com
House prices down about 30% nationwide, case-schiller
There is an interesting quote that the author Susan Jeffers makes in her popular book "Feel the fear and Do it Anyway". She writes that "fear about money often persists regardless of how wealthy we are" and recounts hearing a great line in a Grade B movie "Security is not having money; it's knowing you can do without it". All the doom and gloom that is about - I am sure we have heard it all before.....and the world still turns and the sun comes up in the morning. Maybe there is something in the Blis lozenges that makes me feel optimistic!
We're agreed that we wanted second half sales to be higher, and that we do not know why they weren't. All we can do is react to the facts we have. I've explained my own thought patterns, and welcome other's thoughts. That's the point of group discussions on publicly available facts. However, obviously I cannot create new information, and I think we just have to wait now. That the company is working very hard can surely not be doubted. I'm sure each investor is deciding what their own reaction is anyway.
Another new product - hopefully!
http://vitanetonline.com/forums/1/Thread/1642
Thanks Cannibal for that quick find! Info to the history of Now http://www.nowfoods.com/AboutUs/HistoryofNOW/000395.htm They have a UK site and a partner in Canada called PureSource.
My wife pop into the local chemist this morning and ask for some BLISS. The shop assistant looked on the shelf which was empty and said “I will check in the back as there has been demand for it from the radio advertising”. We managed to purchase a packet. Good to see it selling. Hopefully they will kept the shelf's stocked.
Yes, thanks Cannibal. It sure is an interesting time to be launching products. Happily the company now has roots down in a large number of distributors and countries. A larger number of Costcos will be carrying it again shortly, and we get to find out what's happening with food and Nestle in the not too distant future presumably. And hints of some development in Australia?
The last year has certainly shown us that the company has the firepower to implement their very ambitious plans, but also that we have to wait to find out when the cash flow will catch up, and we'll all be happy to see that point I'm sure. At some point, the sheer expansion of outlets must outgrow the world's nervousness. Presumably NZ is supplying some of that cashflow right now, with their second winter of resumed marketing.
Let's be accurate. The question is not "not selling", because it certainly is selling.
The article http://www.moosylvania.com/blog/file...ason+quote.pdf suggested "a dose of K12 adds about four US cents to a product, be it a lozenge or a pot of yoghurt." If so, then we might round that to around NZ$1 a bottle of lozenges, in which case the year's trading revenue of $1.238m is hardly "not selling". And further, they are definitely selling very well indeed to the target market of manufacturers and distributors. The question is only why sales did not increase last half noticeably, which is a different question. Even there, US sales did increase by a margin second half anyway, of course. And the trading loss was still very small.
Promise me you realise I am not here to champion the company, but in fact to discuss investment decisions! I did put a bit of work into finding those quotes as to the dire economic situation in the US, and I'm not sure it's entirely fair to just dismiss them without discussion. I think people would be pretty despondent here if house prices were down 30% and real unemployment was hanging around 20%. And of course it takes time to establish in a market in the best of times, anyway.
Investment is a matter of probabilities, and personally I read the probabilities here as looking good. I don't dispute that the outcome is unknown, and I totally respect that there are different points of views here.
But not in any real quantities. Look at totally unproven products that get associated with 'health'. A current favourite is Resveratrol. I don't know how well it sells in NZ but it's popular worldwide and has no scientific approval. Some bee or honey products are similar. It's largely a nonsense market, but if anything catches on - there's no stopping it. I'm not saying Blis is rubbish, or that it's not rubbish. I'm simply saying that for the number of outlets etc, the turnover is very very low. It just hasn't flown yet, so possibly it never will. Something just ain't working!
Well, by way of comparison, the 2001 report for Comvita, a successful company surely, http://www.comvita.com/annualreportsarchive_1.html reports sales in 1988 of 8.3m and in 1999 of 9.7m (p6). But they then set about a new strategy, "Comvita’s principal growth strategy is to shift from being an exporter to an international marketer of natural health products and health solutions" (p8) http://www.comvita.com/annualreportsarchive_1.html# thus reaching $18m in 2002, $71m in 2009, and $84m in 2010. That's a 17% increase in that first decade, but nearly ten-fold increase next decade after changing strategy.
Comvita wound/skincare honey, by the way, is a superbly effective product to go by my own experience.
What does that tell us? I'm not sure. Things can take time to establish, but on the other hand can grow quickly with a change in strategy. I would have said Blis's strategy was aimed at faster growth still. Also, the same percentage growth is small at first in dollar terms, but ever more effective in dollar terms later on, which is likely to be the case with Blis as well presumably. The uncertainty with Blis at present is surely about trying to sense a stable initial level. Maybe we got that last report, or maybe it will change quite a bit over the next year or so. My guess is the latter, but only time will tell.
Of course, although that's interesting to compare to, we haven't got an actual probiotic ingredient's history to actually compare to. Only time will tell ... as we keep getting back to.
It may or may not be a nonsense market but it is certainly a burgeoning market - http://blog.taragana.com/pr/marketsa...-by-2014-6686/
An interesting read. US$32,600,000,000 is a good number...
On a more tactical level - this from CulturedCare's FaceBook page -
"Hmmm. We noticed a lot of visitors to our website this weekend, plus one of our retailers had a spike in Probiotic Gum sales. Were we on TV or radio or something? Anybody see/hear something?"
"Ah yes... Professor John Tagg interview for Australian TV is generating a LOT of interest!"
Was in south australia this week and a big deal was made of k12 gum on the news .Positive advertising thats for sure.