Be back to record highs in day or so ...and we'll ask what was the fuss all about
$4.50 ...here we come
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Indeed mate. For others here's a free 101 lesson in psychology, well worth the read if you have the time.
https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog...n-self-be-true
"To thine own self be true" There is little point fighting one true belief's. If one prefers real earnings growth to other fanciful terms invented by tech companies you might as well be authentic to yourself...you'll be happier. Plenty of people have speculated where this company will be in five years time...but where will ATM with its real earnings growth be in five years time ?
Absolutely this falls into the speculative area for me with no real earnings. If I bought in again it would be a maximum of 5% of my portfolio which as Iceman knows is my self imposed limit for speculative portfolio allocation. Interestingly the Bible has a lot to say about speculation...don't speculate "invest" is the nub of it.
Maybe this will have real earnings in 5 years time, maybe not. Just a thought...one can create an app out of thin air so too speak. People don't NEED to use an app, they could use another app or not use one at all. On the other hand people NEED protein, there is no escaping that fact and you can't create protein out of thin air...
Sometimes we also tend to overthink things. The real quesiton is "what will its share proice be in five years time?"
My simple answer is "up". So I will continue holding for as long as it goes "UP". If it goes DOWN beyond a certain point then its time to sell. This approach takes a lot of angst out of holding shares.
PPH real profits in 7 years might be $200m
On a PE of 20 thats a share price of about $14
Working back with an expected return of 20% pa that gives a share price of $4.05 today
And thats with slwoing growth as well
Nice to see some larger parcels (100,000, 200,000 and 100,000) going through at $4.035
Easier and faster to scale a software product than specially bred cattle
Getting back to 440 odd pretty quick
Will it reach new highs next week ...I reckon so
$4.40 gets me back to my stop loss starting point. With new portfolio, since its long term, I thought Id put 20% stop loss based on market high on my purchases.
As PPH was plummeting I was thinking maybe I should have set it at 10% which would have seen me out at $4.00. Instead I rode this down to $3.82 (and getting a bit nervous) reminding myself I am in this for the long term.
So now I have ridden this quietly back up to $4.18.
The beauty of it having hit $4.40 is I'm in a "cant loose" situation. Even if it heads to $3.52 I'm in the money. Obviously I dont have the stomach for trying to trade in and out of PPH.
Well. Pretty much back to where it was a couple weeks ago. Humans are funny things. Is PPH now a target for the shorter given ATM has rebuffed their advances? Guess we'll find out soon.
Lead article in NBR Online today is on PPH. Craig Lister from Craigs talking it up. No new info though.
Traders dream this volatility, if only I was a trader :(
Hi guys , absolute newby to the game ... And first post
Like the look of this company. !
Bought in today at 4.10 and now we wait ... :)
How low will PPH go? If the peak was 4.45, then a 10% correction takes it down to about 4.01. Is now the time to buy or is there more?
Down 8% on ASX in early trading
About $3.55 NZ equivalent
Match price 368 just before open. May be a tough day with this one !
Given the current US "correction" and apparent 'ripple' across the NZ Market today ...I'd Be very interested in hearing sentiments from the more experienced traders on here re PPH outlook.
Being an absolute rookie (PPH was my first EVER buy!). last week I bought at 410 and set stop loss at 387 .... hey things were on the up lol. Didn't expect to see my STOP loss actioned at 387 1 day before this US event ---- haha maybe my STOP loss was the hair trigger for the whole thing to unfold ;)
Yes this IS a volatile listing - I underestimated just how much!
I keen to see what others think about reentering again at current SP
Wait it out.. swallow the loss and jump back on the horse. I still have faith the story and fundamentals have remained unchanged TBH
Cheers
:p
Sold mine today. Made $91 in two months with 4000 shares. De risking my portfolio meant this one had to go. Portfolio now has 41% cash. Striving for balance.:)
Sounds like you wanted to go long but got stopped out(The reason why I don't use stop losses for long term holds) If you believe in the company and it's long term success, then just buy and hold them. From a personal viewpoint, this is not a stock for me, even more so at a time like this, with it's high beta and the fact that its not producing a profit at this point in time.
Hi, If you really want to become a good trader... Top down analysis is always your first prerequisit, always watch the dow and S&P 500 to see where things stand as far as the general market conditions are concerned.
treasury yields etc. Thats always No.1 on my agenda,then the stock on a weekly then daily perspective. Always make sure the stock is trending upwards on both those time frames. my 2 cents worth mate.
Speaking of the Dow the futures are currently 207 points negative at the time of this post. https://www.cnbc.com/pre-markets/
Take care out there folks...we are in for a very volatile 2018 in my opinion.
I bought PPH purely as a "high" risk speculative play with a 5 year window. Given I see it as high risk I am prepared to loose money on it. So I set my stop loss at 20%
of 12 month high. In practice this means it has a 12 month high of $4.45 so my stop loss gets triggered at $3.56. Which doesn't leave me too exposed as I bought at $3.30. That's why I like new time highs.
What this also means is I can sit today out totally oblivious to the panic around me - until it gets close to $3.56. Curretly its on $3.91
I think your 6%(?) stop loss is way too low. You can get that sort of movement over a month - but recover in future months.
(you'll see on another thread I made a few recent purchases. All with 20% stop loss. My aim is to be up 10% per year for the next 5 years. )
Thanks to you all for the decent feedback ! Makes good sense and Ill be learning from this :)
Cheers Dean007
My take: stop-losses are an essential discipline. Trailing a stop so that you raise it if the stock goes up, to lock in some of the profit is even better. You can split eg bought at $3.30, price moves up 10% - raise stop for 50% of position etc. tricky to get the distance right - too close and you get stopped out when the trend hasn't changed; too far and you give back too much money. Some will sell part of a position on upwards euphoric extensions, hoping to buy back on retracements. And the %s can reasonably change too - tight stops initially and then wider as more profit is made.
Those are general trading rules / tactics but more generally, I like PPH a lot - big market and apparently good management. However, the change in volatility in global markets has reduced my risk appetite, so I sold a good portion of my holding yesterday. Despite any fundamentals, the price could be driven lower, back to $3.30 or $2.40 area quite quickly if things continued to go badly globally. (Previous Dow dips have been shrugged off by the local market but the global nature of the reaction to this move, concerns me). If that happens, it can be very quick and difficult to get out of a position. Spreads widen and the pain and reluctance to enfore a stop-loss can be harsh (or an auto-stop-loss can get really bad execution).
And I think this guy makes sense generally:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-chart-reader-who-called-this-stock-market-selloff-says-its-not-over-yet-2018-02-07-1210308
With regard to PPH - seems like we have a lot of speculative bulls in this stock and they've mostly been very quiet the last few days (including me!) which is not a good sign. I hope I'm wrong and if I'm right, I can still see PPH at higher levels in a year from. Is bit it may be painful in the meantime. It is horrible watching counted profit leech away in a grinding, drawn-out correction. I've been there.
Good luck.
Hope those who do the tithing thing through Push haven’t lost heaps on the market crash ....might reduce their giving meaning less ACMR for Push
I'm actually pleasantly surprised how well pushpay has been holding up since the announcement tbh
You read these threads and you actually can see people talking themselves into buying high and selling low. As Warren Buffet says, "if you're right about the "why" of a stock, don't worry too much about the "when." By all accounts, the way Pushpay measures progress is in a steady line going up. This method of measurement pushes the stock up when the company reports good progress and good news. This company will almost assuredly continue to do this in 2018. Nothing has changed about this thesis.
I'm with you on this cymonger. Clearly a stock like PPH and many others will be severely affected when panic hits the market as we've seen in the last couple of days, even though it hasn't been anything like the silly screaming headlines in the media. I'm sure, as others have pointed out, we will have more volatility in the sharemarkets this year than last. But with Japan and Europe having joined USA and China with positive economic outlooks, I think we can chill a little. As long as PPH continues to deliver, I'm content. Of course one has remain vigilant, watch the market and consider one's position if stoploss markers are hit. I should add that I don't regard myself as a trader as I always invest with a longterm plan in mind.
Discl. Not losing sleep
Hi W69
Consider the following facts:
1. The US economy is doing well and trending up for average joe bloggs
2. Their share market acceleration has overstepped the rate of economic growth.
3. The US is extremely religious - even the notes have "in God we trust".
4. Most US churches have expanded since 9/11.
Consider therefore that PPH is currently well placed to capitalise on all of the above.
Regards
-dodgy
Holding over 20,000
Sad to say my stoploss marker was hit yesterday and I reluctantly dropped 1/3 of my PPH holding. Still up 31% on my average buy in price so not sure if this "discipline" was a good thing or not :confused: Still holding plenty
This is such a feel good stock, by investing in PPH I'm enablng more people to give to worthy causes. Every $ I invested is geared by PPH to help millions give. It's like I've brought the proverbial fishing rod, I'm empowering the generous. Capitalism has never felt more righteous.
Ohhhh, and I was feeling so good for a while... :(
Over the last week every time the Push share price looks really weak and on the verge of collapsing strong buying comes out of the woodwork ....hmmmm
Hmmm - my expectation was that PPH was going to take a significant hit with the unfolding of recent events. Instead it has steadily risen... Share price creeping up again today and some big numbers going through 250K at 392 and 2 lots of 100K at 392.
Does this suggest that the positive sentiments that make this a high PE company remain at large intact?
Cheers
Dean007
Personal opinion is that the correction isn't over yet so I have been selling quite a few of these. Have been in since early last year and have a pretty low buy price so am up quite a bit. Love the company, love the product (even use it to donate to NZ charities) and think they have a great future. But remember "a rising tide raises all boats" and the opposite for an outgoing tide. One look at the NASDAQ chart over the past 30 years or so gives me the creeps for the immediate future so I am mostly cashing out of all tech stocks. Will look at buying back in if these get undervalued (currently more than fully valued IMO).
The recent big buying I think is still a hang over from their inclusion on the NZX50 - funds buying in. Gives a good chance to sell if you are jittery like me!
Nice to see PPH touching $4.00 today
In all the excitement with ATM, SML, FBY, CBL we seem to have forgotten PPH. Time for a bump. After a bit of a flat patch 600,000 shares crossed at $3.90 today. Time for people to get back on this train.
Interesting stats for the month of March as of today from trade volume point of view.
1st Mar - 916k
2nd Mar - 1.85Mln
5th Mar - 627k
6th Mar - 773k.....so far
agreed that this volume is significant. just not sure of what! i recall such high volume and low movement being called Price Acceptance. eg $3.90 is the new anchor level. 10% below the highs, 6% below the index-entry highs.. on balance, I think this is positive. nervous big Longs are happy to quit up here. new Longs are happy to instate - either because they have to buy (more index buying..?) or because they know something.. one month until next market update IIRC, so a little more time to assess. meanwhile a break below $3.70 or above $4.00 would presage a further move in the same direction..
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/315341
PPH on ASX being added into ASX All Ordinaries eff Monday, 19th Mar 2018.
This kinda explains the reason behind all those high volume trading days this month.
assuming $4.00 holds now, next target is $4.70 area (Jan $4.40 high - Feb $3.70 low = 70c. $4.00 + 70 = $4.70..). given it was almost 3 months of consolidation (mid-Dec index entry, to mid-Mar), should be quite a strong move...
Just pushed through its four week high of $4.15 to $4.18. Next stop 12 month high of $4.45
Nice move last couple of sessions. Interesting thought about stopping at 5$.I would guess good solid numbers this time, then some really big numbers later this year, then the listing on the Big Board at the end of the year. Would guess that would all add up to 6+ based on how this company moves with the news.
One of the main things to pay special attention to in the upcoming AMCR management team will be its cashflow.
Another day so far of steady increases on very good volume. It will be interesting to read the April update and see what effect it will have on the SP, but looking strong and well supported.
Unbelievable. More volume traded on PPH than A2 milk today. Wow
ASX closed up at 415 = 446 NZ
By rights, This would be in for a new high tomorrow.
Sold half my (overweight) position, down to 100% free carry now. With ACMR and ARPC decreasing over the current quarter and then only "steadily growing over the rest of the calendar year" i'm not expecting too much good news to support the price. Might raise with market sentiment, but it could also be a volatile six months! Will look to re-enter before the 4th quarter and the real rocket with listing + Christmas numbers.
Currently Pushpay trading at about 11 times revenue (or if you take Visa/MasterCard share off revenues it’s about 16).
Clare Capital have an interesting chart in latest Insights publication. It is below.
Seems to show that listed payments SaaS companies trade between 4 and 8 times revenue.
Does this mean a fair bit of future hype still in the Pushpay share price ..like waiting for revenues to catch up with current price.
Still holding ....chart still OKish
850,000 just traded at $4.37. Someone has confidence.
Or they finally realised the staggering amounts people give in the USA, especially via religious and churches:
https://givingusa.org/tag/giving-usa-2017/
Wow....look below, VWAP, Volume and Value in that order so far...
$4.39 3,590,000 $15,760,635
there must be some good news on the horizon.
well i hope so
To my mind, this is either 1) funds recalibrating or 2) someone has crunched ancillary data (eg. USA transactions on giving etc.) from somewhere and is taking the punt
There has been very good turnover recently, with today being very significant and about 1.3% of the PPH's shares traded so far on the NZX but slow on the ASX. It looks to me like the addition of PPH to the All Ordinaries on the ASX on Monday may have drawn some attention and sparked interest
But it highlights the HUGE opportunity for Push eh ......only a small percentage of that potential will make Push look cheap as at todays price (even though it is priced at 18 times revenue)
Will be another good day for Push on the markets I reckon ....unless punters are spooked by what happened over in the US
Not sure I wont to rain into the parade ... but does this look to anybody else like a double top at $3.39?
Nah - relax, I am sure this is just an unfortunate coincidence and the SP will rocket up from here higher than the steeple of the Ulm Minster
http://www.europeanfocus.com/the-wor...-church-spire/
Found that bit interesting.Quote:
The Church of England receives about £200 million ($281 million) in annual donations. The vast majority comes from automated bank donations set up by church-goers, but a small amount comes from collection plates.
Good to see our staff working really hard even though it’s Easter
Going to be AMAZING set of numbers in a few weeks I reckon
Might even get share price to 5 bucks
Chris Heaslip (@ChrisHeaslip)
31/03/18, 8:45 AM
So incredibly thankful for Pushpay Sales team. Working hard on Easter Friday to close out the fiscal year strong!