You two are saying the same thing lol
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You two are saying the same thing lol
No Rawz U didnt get it right ...he says if KFL buys back shares at huge discount to NAV and passes them as DRP stock then it doesn't help boost NAV as they not being cancelled ....while I say they are passed on in lieu of NEW DRP shares thus helps keeping overall numbers down so it helps boost NAV ...that was the main point I made in my initial post to which he objected that nothing cancelled so no boost to nav ...in reality its some cancellation as they didnt issue new shares but passed stock bought at cheaper rate instead of issuing new at full nav ...so it DOES help boost nav
I agree that effect is so minuscule that it doesn't matter ...but then he started teaching simple maths ...lol
Now to serious business ...Bull says NAV will keep depleting due to dividends payout from capital .
1. Only 60% cash is paid which comes mainly from cash dividends they receive ...1% shortfall is to be covered per annum via stock sales ...little more DRP participation will diminish that also
2. As per my spreadsheet yesterday's NAV ex dividend reached AGAIN $ 1.324 and it still has lots of time to pay next divvy ...while market has been pretty much stagnant ...so dear Bull it can be done if u have a WELL managed portfolio even on NZX ...while enjoying the safety of a fund with its other enormous benefits like tax and regular income or discounted DRP etc ...free lunch at AGM is added perk which Mr B likes a lot :t_up:
3% roughly new shares issued in yr 23 320m compared to yr 22 320m so this dilutes nav
37m in div's paid out only 8m received in div's from companies owned
4m needed to pay management fee's
where the rest of income come from every body
Latest NAV as per my estimate is $ 1.343 ...SP $ 1.22 ...DISCOUNT 9.2% !!! Wow great opportunity to get into top stocks at 9+% discount
When MFT / IFT also joins the party like FPH then NAV can get further boost ahead ....my base estimate of $ 1.35 NAV after June divi seems easily achievable
UPDATE on KFL performance YTD
NZX50G YTD = + 2.87 %
KFL NAV including paid divi YTD = + 4.73%
ASX200 Index YTD = + 2.41 %
BRM NAV including divi paid YTD = + 6.9%
SP KFL YTD = + 2.73%
SP BRM YTD = + 2.01%
IMO SP will improve or there is scope for improvement when sentiment improves thus discounts will narrow to more normal levels of 1-3% ...
Double benefits possible ...navs goes up with markets and discounts narrowing
Read a post on other channel about LICs by FM ...
His main negative about Fisher funds is high management costs ...maybe he was more MLN specific as compared MLN performance with VOO returns etc
Coming to KFL as thats my focus ...Its adjusted NAV returns on last 5 years basis after all expenses including tax is 6.8% vs Index 4.7% ....so why would one grudge about costs of management if on LT basis it outperforms any vanilla ETF like NZG etc ...even FNZ ...in trying to reduce my cost I would have lost 2.1% PA
https://kingfish.co.nz/investor-cent...o-performance/
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/428639
Almost 82000 shares bought ...thats very aggressive as per their past standards
Are shareholders happy with the returns?
"Kingfish, which invests in NZ stocks, celebrated 20 years as a listed company by gaining 1c to $1.23. Over that period Kingfish has had a total shareholder return of 9.4% a year."
https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/articl...or+27+Mar+2024
All the LT holders are only adding ...so I reckon they very happy with KFL ...it suits my type of investors who need regular income with capital growth as bonus but not top priority ....neither looking for a multi bagger but safety of a known fund with 20 years track record of doing better then general market
Last update was a miss ...today's shud be closer at $ 1.3450 !!! Just lazy to fully update portfolio ...but still its providing very close Navs :p
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/428894
Closer this. time ...still I am over the actuals ...maybe the perma bull in me...lol. Rawz will agree. :D
7% discounted at current SP ...shud improve soon ...Bull shud help more
KFL warrants are 50/50 case of substantial exercise happening ...thus no FEAR of NAV dilutions unlike BRM which will surely get almost 100% exercised and resulting in 4-5 cents dilution ahead
Even chance of that ...IFT and MFT can help hopefully ...NAV of 1.40 and SP of 1.32 ....exercise price of 1.26 ...gives warrant worth of 5 cents + ...possible but need IFT and MFT to help
BTW yesterday's NAV crossed $ 1.35 !!!
SUM seems like a dark horse ...not to be overlooked
Expecting $ 1.34+ ...NAV
At present NAV looking like $ 1.335 and SP $ 1.22 ...ie 11+ cents discount !!!
KFL should invest in TWR. Heck even do a deal to manage their float
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/429794
NAV of $ 1.3366 and SP at 9% discount ...steepest of all 3 . Case for ....??
Important quarter too with IFT / MFT/ FPH plus some more results due
Also its becoming more and more possible that its warrants will not be in the money by July end thus NO DILUTION fears unlike BRM whose warrants will surely be in the money and thus will dilute NAV big way ...imo
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/430059
My estimate after FPH heroics yesterday $ 1.3415 ...steepest discount still 9% !!!
Still buying own shares
Neighbour asked me if they have spare cash why don’t they buy more FPH or Vulcan shares if they think those companies are so good?
I said ‘financial engineering’
Hecsaid what to benefit the managers by making themselves look good
What do I really tell him …please …in simple words
A easier answer is that they do not have alot of cash on hand. And if they tried to exit a nzx stock in their portfolio to release cash then it would probably put extreme pressure on that price.
Yes, the head shares represent fantastic value. So investors would prefer to buy the discounted head shares and receive the next dividend. Win win.
It is difficult to say why the discount is so large. But in the meantime what a bargain for this lucky enough to have cash to invest.
The discount to NAV is about $35m
Some might say that’s the present value of future management and performance fees
Those same punters would say that seems about right só discount is warranted
Hey alokdhir
As you master of all things Kingfish you wouldn’t have any historical data as to what the discount has been over the years would you
I was happy enough to pick up a few this morning.
Ive got a mate buying $50 of these and BRM each week via sharesies ($3 brokerage cost per month on one of their plans).
If the SP goes to par or above NAV ill tell her to stop.
Good value here and easy peasy investing imo.
I have been invested from April 2010 and SP was average 91 Cents with NAV around $ 1.10 ...thus huge discount ...at that time buy back kicked in after 10% discount ....it took a while for that discount to narrow ...many years I reckon ...but then it became normal for SP to be few cents discount to NAV and discount widened only around warrant exercise time ie around a month before and few after ...ONLY after Covid times we saw huge premium ...very unusual and very unhealthy ...but I reckon money lost total value and anything else was better ...people just wanted to get rid of cash at any price .
Also maybe market in its wisdom sees this as a Bond of some sort thus repricing its discount / premium compared to current rates ...its portfolio of well established blue chips can give some level of security to treat whole portfolio as a Bond !!!
https://kingfish.co.nz/investor-cent...announcements/
From above u can get NAVs and discounts since 2007
Buyback is only for OPTICS ...its value is minuscule to alter SP on any day ...its just trying to signal to potential buyers that its good value at current prices ...
I wanted them to control premium during covid fundays when it was trading over 20 cents to NAV ...but being close ended fund ...they can only buyback but not issue new shares as market maker ...thus many got burnt badly but maybe they still better off then buying Bond funds / treasuries at that level !!
This cud have been true if all 3 ie KFL / BRM / MLN traded at same discount as all have similar fees structure ....at present discounts are 9% / 4% / 5% ....
PS : Also this explanation doesn't fit premiums to NAV which were present for almost 18 months !!!
If u invest funds with ANZ Private kind of wealth managers ...then they upfront charge u portfolio establishment fees ...where as if u buy KFL ...u get great and established portfolio at 9% discount
Friend had some old monthly data and I’ve updated ……..discount/premium to NAV last 10 years. It’s month end data
The red line is the important one …..others are average abd std deviations. These are used to calculate a thing called a Z-score which funds dealing in trusts etc use as buy sell signals.
KFL definitely a buy at current levels based on these numbers.
Is interesting what’s happen over the last 10 years it generally trades at discount to NAV but highlights that like many things over 2020/2022 got out of kilter …..and KFL was no exception and like many reverting to a more normal state.
I also tend to agree with alokdhir in that KFL is seen by many as a ‘bond’ and as such divie yield is a key driver of share price….probably stay that way for a while.
" The issue of new Shares on exercise of the Warrants may result in a consequential reduction in the net asset value (NAV) per Share once the new Shares are issued. The extent of the dilution effect (if any) on the NAV per Share will depend upon the actual number of Warrants exercised and the final Exercise Price in comparison
to the NAV per Share immediately prior to the issue of the new Shares.
In order to illustrate the potential reduction in NAV per Share for those who do not exercise or sell their Warrants, the dilution effect associated with prior Barramundi warrants over the last twelve years has ranged from a 0% to 5.3% reduction in NAV per Share "
As current buyers of BRM dont have the luxury of free warrants coming with BRM thus they open themselves to above risk ...ie dilution of NAV ahead ....with exercise price most likely to be 63 Cents compared to current SP of 71Cents ...they will surely be exercised majorly . Maybe thats why its discount to NAV is MORE warranted then KFL ...where as its higher at present for KFL then BRM ...must be demand supply mismatch as KFL clearly offers more value at current SPs
Yes, KFL offers a great discounted entry price for those wanting more exposure to the NZX.
BRM offers exposure to Australian stocks and the warrants have time on their side.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/430364
NAV still $1.3371
Trading today $1.23 - 1.24
Action around Vista should boost Kingfish NAV
Hope they didn’t sell into that 18% somebody took
What’s your read alokdhir
As per last portfolio discloser they had 4.5 % position in VGL on 31st March ...currently NAV around 1.33 .
They dont sell so easily as they take position in companies they think will keep doing well ...at least they try .
PS : This week is important for KFL nav ...FPH / MFT results shud have major impact either way ...fingers crossed ...MFT can move a lot imo
Transport is surely a leading indicator of economy trend ...maybe MFT had that bump last HY ...MFT drives 80% of revenue from outside NZ ...so fingers crossed they may surprise us ...at least FB thinks so ...we will find out in few hours ...consensus estimates $ 2.79 eps ...anything less then $ 2.65 should have flagged a negative trading update NZX notification early April ...similarly anything over $ 2.95 ...but mainly the future outlook commentary will be most important for the SP
KFL has 17 % FPH and 14% MFT ...thus almost 1/3 KFL portfolio reporting tmrw !!!
Yip, someone must have read your post and bought up cheap on MFT. I probably should have earlier in the day but was distracted elsewhere. Roll on tomorrow! KFL already up.
Good results from both FPH / MFT ... both expecting good growth in FY25 ...bodes well for their SPs thus KFL ...FPH / MFT / IFT ...doing well in FY25 ensures KFL will do well in FY25 . :t_up:
KFL is an active manager but not really active aye.
If the warrants end up being a dud then they have no new big capital injection.
Questions.
If the warrants do get across then line then what stocks do you think the fund managers will invest the funds in.
If the warrants are not exercised, then will the fund managers go again straight away and issue a new round of warrants.
warrants are most likely dud this time ...they just invest the new funds in original portfolio ...new money doesnt mean new stocks
Yes then after few months we will have new warrants issue and which will be more attractive like BRM ie surely to get exercised types
From original holder's perspective warrants not getting exercised this time offers reprieve from NAV dilution ...thus makes KFL currently more attractive then BRM if all other stuff being equal
KFL cant do things like some small investors here do ...most small stocks like TWR / TRA / 2CC etc are too thinly traded
With other steady yield stocks like SPK / GNE / HGH etc doing badly ...KFL still is offering regular income while SP being steady ...surely have some SP upside also in 2-3 years time ...but KFL investors are mainly income seekers not mainly capital gains hungry ...but that possibility is surely there eventually
PS : But if u opt for DRP then it grows like a growth stock ...attractive DRP rate too 3% !!
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/428684
This shud satisfy your query ...outperforming index over 20 years period even SR will appreciate ...lol
How does the tax work.
Say if I buy KFL with capital, the sp goes sideways but get I get paid dividends from the fund manager. So effectively getting my own capital back.
Therefore in this example I would be paying zero tax?
https://kingfish.co.nz/investor-cent...nt-strategies/
This shud answer all your queries about dividends ...KFL dividends are tax free in the hands of investors always .
Nz farmer these days. UK when I started on Share trader. FX rate was 3.6 to one.
For the record I try to limit paying tax. So KFL sounds like a good fit.
The way the dividends work is that the majority is tax-exempt as it relates to the capital gain. The part of the dividend that relates to the dividends paid by the underlying investments is taxable but because it is a PIE it does not have to be declared in your tax return (unless you want to) and is taxed at a lower rate than many individuals personal rate. This is what makes the FF trio attractive to many "hands off" investors especially those who want a simple income.
The way some big investor buying up for last two days ...seems tax relief coming for listed PIEs ...lol
He maybe buying for 2.65 Cents divvy on offer ...goes ex next Wednesday ...so last few days ...makes sense to buy now and reduce cost by 2.65 cents coming back in few days !!! How about u ?
Attachment 15130
Latest KFL portfolio ...what not to like about it ...Great for yield or growth depends on cash or DRP option ...most tax efficient way to convert capital appreciation of NZ bluechip growth stocks into income ! :t_up:
Now good news from CEN. You might hold onto faint hopes for the warrants.
Agree, its a good buy today. Personally, I would like to see the warrants successful and new capital put to use in what looks to me to be a buyers market.
I hope u know it doesnt help existing holders of head share in any manner if warrants get exercised ...on the contrary it dilutes their head share NAV ...so I am not very concerned about warrants going dud ...surely who sold theirs made some extra buck ...Next warrant issue will be for the keeps till maturity ...so cycle running late by 1.5 to 2 years I reckon ...rates cycle ...but that happened in 2010 also ...took some time for KFL to take off from flatish
Yes I know but I figured if they get more ift mft etc we all benefit in the long run. Haven't done any math on it. I figured it would be like averaging down.
When ever they provide us with current NAV ie weekly ..thats the day 1 of all portfolio stocks prices ...it doesnt matter if the corpus is 100 Mil or 500 mil ...when they put new money in the portfolio ...only corpus increases not anything else ...only they get more fund management charges as they are based on corpus value ...we head share holders gain nothing from increasing corpus ...maybe better liquidity is our only gain
" Corpus is the total amount of money that a company has available to spend. This can include income from sales, investments, and loans. Corpus can also be used to refer to the funds available to a particular department or project within a company. "
Here it will mean FUNDS UNDER MANAGEMENT ...
^^ this is interesting, i had assumed that there was little to no dilution effect, (rough numbers here ) say there was 400M in the pot (320M shares) ~1.25 per share.
someone purchased and exercised their rights of say 10M shares at 1.27 the pot is now 412.7M and the number of shares on issue = 330M, so kind of making it neutral, (depending on how close the rights issue is to current share price)
Am I way off the mark on how this rights issue plays out Alokdhir? i'm keen to understand a bit more about the dilution, and what my best option to counteract it is.
Aah... actually i think I get it... does the dilution occur when the rights issue is significantly below the current share price, because no-one in their right mind is exercising rights at above current trading price..
Yes ...dilution happens if exercise price is less then current NAV ...more the difference more the dilution .
Say for example BRM current NAV 75 ...on exercise date its say 80 Cents ...exercise price is 63 ...4x80 + 63 = 383/5 = final exercise day NAV 76.6 ...assuming all 100% warrants got exercised ....
So if original head shares owners who got 1/4 warrants free ....they needed to sell their warrants for 13.6 cents to not loose to this dilution effect of warrants exercise
Many can sell higher then that and some below ...higher ones made extra money at the cost of less then 13.6 cents ones .
Currently KFL warrants maybe dud so no dilution for head shares but some already sold theirs and made bonus extra ...adding to their returns
When to sell warrants if u can not exercise is a market call ...many times u loose selling early and many u win like this time ...some sold at 12 cents ...ie extra 3 cents bonus per share
Actually you are purchasing the shares in the fund at a discount to market rate so yes any on market purchasing with warrant monies would in effect lower the nta per share. My hope was buying now would be good for the fund longer term.
Last day of CUM dividend of 2.65 Cents ...Can it cross $ 1.25 now or after NAV of $ 1.335 ?
KFL NAV catching up with underperformance on Friday ...today up 2 cents so far !!
Today's ex divvy NAV maybe higher then cum divvy last NAV of $ 1.3316 ...wont that be nice ...in two days full quarter's divvy recovered ...GO FPH / IFT
[QUOTE=alokdhir;1055644]Today's ex divvy NAV maybe higher then cum divvy last NAV of $ 1.3316 ...wont that be nice ...in two days full quarter's divvy recovered ...GO FPH / IFT[/QUOTE
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/432416
Thats the power of blue chip. growth stocks ...actually ex nav more then cum in just two days !!
KFL VS BRM results so far as of yesterday
NZX YTD + 2.58% ...KFL + 5.25% including two divvies
ASX YTD + 1.88%...BRM + 3.85% including two divvies
Power of KFL blue chips showing here ...FPH/IFT/MFT/CEN/AIA/SUM etc ...portfolio is just like NZ10Y bond !! from blue chip angle :t_up:
And at 9.16% discount to NTA for KFL. BRM 5.31%.
As the returns mentioned in my post are YTD ...and I think no warrants were issued after year started ...so no need include them I reckon
If KFL warrants are in the money ( most unlikely ) then appreciation of head share will delight the holders ...also they dont need exercise if they dont have money to invest ...they can sell them to cover their nav loss
Contrary BRM buyers now and after that very attractively priced last warrants will have to bear the inevitable nav dilution when they. are exercised majorly
Logically the warrants are a wash. The fund as a whole will only lose money from the transaction and admin fees, and you are paying for your discount by diluting your existing holdings.
The only way you can make money from it (short of speculating/trading the warrants) is from the poor shareholders unable to partake in juicy discounts, who end up losing out.
Like the rest of the Fisher money merry-go-round, you are paying for your own entertainment.
When 20% of portfolio goes 5% up then just one stock ie IFT contributes 1% + to NAV in a day ...$ 1.3320 can become $ 1.35 today ...
DRP price determination 5 days is great opportunity for people looking to get it ...as during this period fund cant influence price thus cant buy back more and plenty on offer at more then 10% discount now :)
Potentially a 15 cent margin, is that above and beyond the norm? A few pieces of the portfolio are up again today.