$1.14 new all time high and building .
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$1.14 new all time high and building .
Anyone have a depth view?
Here you go.
Attachment 9780
Attachment 9781 Try that?
Wow ...look at all those wishful thinking buyers who’ve missed the boat and now need to pay more to join the party
Need to be in well before the announcement ....that way you get the boost due to expectations of a good result ...then boosted when they say F19 is going to be a boomer of a year.
[QUOTE=kerryo;720339]Here you go.
Must have been onto that at the same time as you Kerryo. Just wasn't as quick to post :)
[QUOTE=kerryo;720339]Here you go.
Quick question Kerryo. Which service are you using? I use ASB and it is not as detailed as your depth break down information.
Very interesting to see the recent trades - I also use ASB.
Yowza, that is a quick little whip snap crackle and pop jump in numbers traded... those are numbers for making a trading income, perhaps some investors are currently "triggered"... Seen this play out a few times before. This is exciting to see... (Always optimistic when in it of course)
Also interesting to note, my refresh rate seems to be a lot slower for OCA atm than normal. Could be a number of reasons, yet I would guess there is a bit of watching going on right now ;)
I think the Depth view presented by kerryo is better because it has the "recent trades" information. Is this from ANZ securities ?
Yes ANZ Securities limmy.
Onward and upward to a new all time high. Looking forward to the annual result later this month, it should be a real cracker !!
Thank goodness for a clear head.
Short term looks stable but eyes on the back-story, thanks for the post, temper the bulls who reckon some magic ratio determines how this sector should price itself. I reckon this is max valued and dissappoiment lurks, not just here but for the sector, but this is the canary in the coal mine. Just a matter of time before the PC police decide super profits are better curbed or directed elsewhere than shareholders pockets.
Be nimble, be quick. Jack has a trading strategy, he'll be quick - to respond. Either way it unfolds.
I've never forgotten this advice from a very wise man, "the market is both over pessimistic & over optimistic." Standing on a gain of 18% in a couple of weeks on no new info, have to wonder how much further it can go & how much optimism already built into the price, esp with the pending release of those pesky escrow shares. Was going to top up a few more today & lots to recommend it, but ...
Any placement of escrow shares in due course will represent an excellent opportunity to double down in my opinion. I for one am ready to pounce.
(Does a hound ever really pounce or is this really the domain of cats ?)
It is not escrow shares being sold. May 2018 accounts have not been released yet.
Macca will not, repeat, will not, dump their shares into the retail market. They are not stupid (at least as far as I can tell)
The last trade today was a buy of ~94k at 114. There 'appear' to be more buyers than sellers.
Stick with the trend until the trend changes.
What is the trend?
I'm with the beagle - any placement of escrow shares that I can get my hands on I will snaffle for the long term.
Attachment 9783
I'm with Couta1
expecting the SP to take a breather shortly
I agree with that as well. The SP has had a good increase lately. Can also speculate on the $1.20 mark getting hit.
Makes for a exciting time to hypothesize the up and coming results. Results to be released on Thursday morning of 26 July 2018.
Disc. Holding. Very happy
Most recent example of SP action was Arvida went up 10 cents in the two weeks before the annual result...just saying.
Hello TJ.
Umm yes correct I agree. But lets look realistically at OCA. Tracking for 100 mill net profit (geeez) Tracking for 1 bill + in assets (geeez ).
Shares issued approx 240 mill on market and 250 mill for Macquare . (Chicken feed share totals). Total debt on the business (OCA) with the above form-line not much !!!
Staff approx 3000---- This is a big powerful and already successful business----No wonder they (Ma) know their share is worth 2.50 and take it from me they DO know it.
Previously 111 was strong resistance.
They say what was resistance when broken becomes a strong support level ...we don’t want to see 110 or below again do we
Let’s hope so eh ...or else TA goes out the window.
Are there enough traders on the NZX for TA to really work on a statistical basis?
TA is based on statistics ... and statistics (like mathematics it is a subset of) always works ... it is just that with smaller numbers the margin of error increases.
What you probably want to ask is whether there are enough trades on the NZX to keep the margin of error within sensible bounds? Now, this depends on the individual share you are looking at and as well on the error margin you are happy to accept.
If you have 1000 uncorrelated trades a day for one particular share (bot trades are frequently correlated) the margin of error for statistical TA predictions would be around +/-3%. If you have only 100 trades a day the margin of error would be +/-10%. You need to decide yourself whether this margin of error (this is on top of the likelihood which TA gives you) is good enough for you.
Obviously - TA is not just pure statistics ... it is as well to a degree a self full filling prophecy (remember - the share market is a level 2 chaotic system - meaning traders are changing their and with that the systems behavior dependent on their knowledge about the system), which in my view will reduce the margin of error for smaller numbers (e.g. people will still panic if the SP falls through the MA200 - even if it is just based on a small number of trades).
Based on personal experience I'd say that TA on the NZX clearly does add value, but probably more so for the more liquid stocks ...
A quiet day on the exchange perhaps, but only 159 trades on OCA; 88 on GMT; 17 on ARV today. Some of the bigger firms had in the hundreds, but very few, which was why I wondered at the value of TA. I can see the point on the US market or ASX where there are a statistically adequate number of trades, but for most of ours, I am cautious of its relevance. And yes, I agree, if there is general acceptance of its predictive value, self-fulfilling to a certain extent.
Thank you, BP, for the figures.
Two weeks to go till the result. Market is saying the result will make guidance of underlying EPS of 8.42 cps but only just. Hope the market is wrong but I am in this for the long haul and believe the care service standard they provide is first rate and the shares are valued based on pretty attractive metrics for this sector.
Hi Beagle,
Would it be possible for you to show how the market values at 8.42cps, is the earning per share calculation? If so what are the numbers drawing into this, and where in the financial statements are they found?
Too sick with a cold at the moment to go digging too far mate but I can tell you the IPO forecast was for underlying EPS of 8.42 cps, (going off memory). This puts OCA on a historical PE of 13.2 if they make their forecast. Forward PE for FY19 maybe 11.5 and gross dividend yield about 5.5% Its these somewhat speculative metrics I am guessing at for the current year which has driven my modest investment position.
To save Beagle finding it
https://stocknessmonster.com/announc....asx-3A469771/ page 7 of this you will find a number $51.4m
Page 7 has a $51.4m number
Oceania said a month or so they were on track to met IPO forecasts ......so result should be pretty close to that
So $51.4m divided by 610.4 million shares is an eps of 8.43 cents ...NOTE THIS IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT FROM BEAGLES NUMBERS
Ryman Healthcare directors are asking shareholders for a rise in the pool of fees from $828,000 paid last year to $985,000 - a proposal that has shocked a shareholder concerned about income inequality.
Divided up, the eight directors would receive about $110,000 each while the chairman generally receives twice that amount.
Ryman directors have other jobs or directorships - for example, Jo Appleyard is a practising lawyer, and chairman Dr David Kerr has seven other directorships.
But their pay is modest compared with Fonterra directors who were given rises this year to $175,000 each, with $430,00 for the chairman John Wilson, from $165,000 and $405,000 previously.
Ummm --Interesting point Ggcc. I have very firm views on Directors fees. Most "Directors ' have never built a company of their own otherwise they would run their own company's. I am a total believer in NO Director fees but parcels of shares or options thereof and let the Directors prove themselves. If they are good their share portions will reward them handsomely so no need for fees at all. That's Exactly what Steve Jobs (Now there is an owner/ director !) did when he returned to an almost bust Apple, not even a wage.
About 500 "Directors" of NZ Finance Company's proved to be quite Valueless over recent years---- in fact they had a minus dollar Value but at least 6 or 7 went to jail.
OCA----Ability, Energy, Persistence, Honesty, Vision--- and decades experience in the business??
RYM's SP has risen by a factor of 44 times since listing in 1999. Some would argue that the directors have created tremendous value for shareholders and have well and truly earned their fees over the years and I would agree 100%. Frankly I don't know how anyone else could realistically take an opposing position with a straight face. Even the new directors fee pool looks quite reasonable to me considering its market capitalization of six billion dollars.
Early days for OCA directors in terms of proving their worth for shareholders but they have plenty of skin in the game and they look to be a board with some very good commercial experience. This augers very well for the future in my opinion.
I would like to see a cap on the amount of directorships someone is allowed to hold. I don’t feel company directors can offer a business something special, holding seven different directorships and a full-time job, while getting paid what they do when the companies sp goes backwards. Just my thought and would love to see if others agree.
You just need to convince your fellow shareholders and you have all the power to make that happen for any company you hold ;);
FWIW - I do agree in principle and typically vote against any director with more than 4 other positions (i.e. 5 all together). So far however it appears I am in the minority ;);
Agree with you both, Onion and BP.
Agreed ---- But point out the following Companies who, along with Pike River Coal LTD, all had "Directors" and I would rather those "Directors" took share options to showcase their incredible skills and wealth creation rather than cash that is always so hard to come by (well it always has been for me).
Between May 2006 and the end of 2012 there were sixty-seven finance company collapses in New Zealand; including companies entering into liquidation, receivership or moratoria. An inquiry by the New Zealand Parliament estimated losses at over $3 billion that affected between 150,000 and 200,000 depositors. The most high-profile collapses were South Canterbury Finance, Hanover Finance and Bridgecorp Holdings.
Isn't it interesting how discussion can stray from the thread - Oceania Group - to Ryman's directors' fees; the level of directors' fees in general; finance company collapses; Pike River Mining disaster; government "protection" of investors. I'm sure that all these topics have their own threads - let's not lumber discussion of OCA with them.
;)
Just another article about retirement villages
https://www.noted.co.nz/money/proper...ement-village/
Really wanted some more OCA & happy to top up this morning. Plenty of depth on the buy side at these levels & although it may drop a cent or two, imho think the long term outlook is so positive & solid, was afraid of looking back in 12 months time & kicking myself for worrying about a few cents ( missed out on topping up with SUM more, just before it shot up).
On a completely unrelated matter to OCA, bumped into one of the OCA staff supervisors on Friday & as always given half a chance, took the opportunity to have a decent chat & get some direct feedback. He was exactly the sort you want, deeply committed to (would go the extra mile) & incredibly proud & enthusiastic about the company he works for, the standard of care for the residents, the villages & the awards they have won. Only one staff member obviously, but really impressive & hopefully indicative of the company culture & why they are winning awards, building a great reputation & aiming to be the best in their field.
NB DYOR
Good start to day with the share price up and I thought we were getting the upward momentum going again
But a bummer of a day in the end
Hope tomorrow will be better
Not worried about tomorrow, or the next... in 10 days from now the share price is going to start up, and then continue up throughout the day... some say we could be witnessing the last days of OCA under $1.20.
No worries
What is certain is ARV continuing to trade the cheapest and be priced like a dog, despite increasing signs it will grow EPS faster over the coming years than companies sounding similar to the movie title narnia.
It's those naughty Bots, winner, painting the wrong picture with tiddly sells, to give us the impression it's more offered than bid. NOT TRUE.
Geez, even got Couta queue-jumping for scraps in the end of day auction, so it's definitely NOT TRUE.:)
Good strategy tho, manifesting it down to ones buy price:t_up: i want more too.
I`m not one for wasting time on conspiracy theories but this OCA share has been great to watch when it bounced between 98.-.99 for 2 months and now the last few days. The WAP makes it 1.12 all day long . But somehow a dribble of micro trades at $1.11 makes the price appear most of the day at $1.11 ... then BOOM!. Out of nowhere $450K trade off market. Me thinks some broker somewhere is transferring shares from his retail clients to himself (or his chummy mates) doing a deal at apparent market price of $1.11. While WE know it should be $1.12.
See what a waste of time that was thinking about.... all will be revealed next Thursday.
There we go again, SP goes back down to $1.11 on almost a nil trade , followed by and off market trade of another $450 k ....if I should mysteriously die in my sleep tonight make sure its reported as a suspicious death.
The day will come when it will be untenable for us little investors, we will become extinct and the soph bots and rich powerful orgs behind them will rule.Even now the odds are steepening against us whitebait. I canoe'd down a stream once past all the whitebaiter's holding their single nets. At the mouth into the harbour where there was no access by foot or car i saw a net stretched across the main current taking everything. Feels like that is coming,unscrupulous.
I`m actually not too bothered by the "big guys" playing their game, gaining a small percentage where they can. You and I have the huge advantages of being small and we don't have to answer to anyone which gives us autonomy to take quick action.
I like your analogy of the whitebait getting shafted. That might well apply to the rank and file "mum and dad" population but I reckon just about everyone on this forum is far more likely to be thinking quite nicely for themselves and definitely not swimming in the school.
We're just about there already mate, IMO. I think all we can do is take our positions, and then check the price every 3 or 6 months. If the FA is OK, then commonsense will eventually prevail, despite the antics of these quants, and/or the funds that want to own the whole shebang, after driving the SP towards zero. I only really look at the opening and closing auctions these days, again, only for a bit of a laugh
Just curious re the large trades referred to at $1.11 ? ANZ (thanks RTM) & also Stocknessmonster show 3 large off market trades $423,000, $336,000 & $84,000 went through after 4pm yesterday at $1.12.
Sorry if this a stupid question but were these additional to the 2 large off market trades referred to in discussion or why are they showing at $1.12?
Agreed, looking at yesterday's trading pattern & buy order demand, how on earth would such substantial trades go through at $1.11 ?
Appreciate anyones clarification on this.
Sold out couple months ago as focusing on finishing my new build. Now all sorted and got back in. Looking forward for next week result!!
So this week is the defining week
Doesn’t look like much buying leading in to the result announcement unless punters leaving it the last moment
Of course the share price will boom post announcement ..Warren says on track for $100m ..that’s a heck a lot of money
It seems very quiet. I've been accumulating a bit the last week or two. Tipped some more into HBL as well. These are the only 2 "cheap" shares I can see at present. Might get a bit more OCA this week. When OCA hits $1.30 it will be my biggest holding
Whats the EBIT or key KPIs target they are looking to hit from FY Results to boost SP?
Underlying profit of 50.6m (up from 34.0 in FY17)
Underlying EPS of 8.3c
2nd half DPS of 2.5c
Underlying EBITDA of 61.4 (up from 37.0 in FY17)
That is basically why forsyth reckon anyway... and they only get a 12 month target price of $1.07 so really OCA needs to beat those numbers to trade at these elevated levels.
Maybe Oceania is no longer the cheap stock it use to be...
I think OCA is flying under the radar for many potential investors. Great to be in it early. It sure is a long term game and the short term is getting exciting with anticipation. A few positive news articles in the near future / marketing campaign after good results may also help out the SP. Then there is the winter seasonal depression on the NZX... stuck inside, over analyzing things that may happen or may not... can't wait to see OCA sp in a few summers time.
Looks like the market is saying they will only "meet" forecast guidance of 8.43 cps underlying profit. If they make that guidance that puts them on a trailing PE of 13.1.
Maybe that's where its at until they can demonstrate more growth and get some more runs on the board ?
PE of 13.1 and NTA of $0.80. Not many like that around...
I think adjusted NTA is closer to $1 but we'll see later this week. I agree those are pretty sensible metrics and make for a good value play in this fast growing sector.
Hard to say, but there is another listed operator (you know the one - its the dog) which has provided consistent underlying EPS growth since listing in December 2014, and is trading at a much cheaper NTA (1.1x vs OCA at 1.3x) and a similar underlying PE... that same company had the second highest of its care facilities at the maximum four year DHB accreditation in the sector (second only to RYM - aka in front of OCA) and average portfolio occupancy was 96% (the wider sector average, and OCA's, is 88%)... and then you look at that comapny's share price and see it is about the same price as it was last year (despite being valued cheaper on almost all ratios, having a better track record, no share price overhang, better accreditation, better operational efficiency and higher occupancy...)
I am now worried my OCA investment isn't going anywhere over the next 12 months... bit like my other investment in that dog over the previous 12 months... ah well, like that one, worst case I'll just have to be happy with the great dividend yield.
You make a pretty sound case. For what its worth this hound has refrained from referring to Arvida as a dog for quite SUM time now. I think you'll find that OCA's care occupancy is currently being affected by units held over for redevelopment as care suites. I think both these more care intensive operations are more susceptible to cost pressure through caregiver wage relativity increases over the next few years than SUM others but as you say the consolation with their model's is the dividend yield. Looking forward to seeing some more detail on how OCA's getting on later this week.
Overhang is the elephant in the room , couldn't agree more on that point.
I too am looking forward to seeing how OCA is going - particularly on the outlook as this seems a bit unclear (bit like how ARV started I suppose). We pretty much know FY18 results are going to be at least what was in the PDS... we know less of what is going to happen in the future... For example, forsyth even reckon EPS is going to go down for OCA in FY19.
Some comment on Macquarie's intentions would also be interesting to hear, ideally sooner rather than later.
I remember on the 28th of april 2016 prior to market open when ARV released a note mentioning that less than 1% of the shares on issue were to be sold in an orderly manner by Forsyth after the escrow expired in late the following month..., the shares then promptly went from $1.06 to to $1.20 and in fact never got close to $1.06 again... coincidence? I think not.
What the company says about its FY19 outlook, if anything, and what Macquarie have to say is something that will be of intense market interest. I'm not fussed with Forbar's FY19 eps guess.
Neither am I, in fact I hope they are wrong big time - they have been waay wrong with ARV, for about a year now they have been saying the share price should be north of $1.50... so should give you/me/Mr Market confidence they have a track record of being way out
Not just relating to ARV's valuation either by the way
If 4 guru analysts have a target of 106 to 109 it would suggest OCA is heaps over priced at 111 (allowing for them being targets presumably a year out). (The bible 4 traders)
All they said a month or so ago was .....On track to meet IPO Forecast for year ended 31 May 2018 •
Wonder what actually means? what IPO forecast ..... Revenue? NPAT?, EBITDA?, Underlying EBITDA?, Underlying Profit?
Maybe all of them ...I don't know
The only reason why I have a small parcel of ownership at this moment and not a larger one is because while they may reach their IPO forecasts. I haven't got enough to go on in terms of FY19 results and beyond. This is why I see it priced at a lower valuation than the others in the sector. Is this going to be a 5%, a 15% or a SUM type game of 25% growth year on year. Unfortunately, the company is too young in terms of available information to make any calls.
The land bank is impressive and a lot can be done, however the amount of units being built at scale has not hit the heights on some of the others in the industry. While the demand in the care industry will come, we'll see how much of it comes to OCA and when.
Fair comment and I agree its a young company which needs to put more runs on the board. Management have good credentials and skin in the game and their land holdings and degree of consented developments shows promise but its like a filly showing a bit of promise at the trials, we'll see how it goes in its first proper lap around the track later this week. SUM other companies have a much longer track record of staying power in terms of growth and definitely deserve to trade at a pretty sizeable PE premium until OCA proves its capabilities over time.
Already another big off market order (100,000 at 1.11) going through this morning.
worry bead masseuses selling to the patient for the next couple of days
At least it didn’t close at 110 ....that’s promising
tomorrow winner, probably
The overhang is in the news
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/8...e-overhanghtml
I think this ‘overhang’ is just one big red herring but punters tend to think too much these days and worry too much.
Risks here are the average age of properties + the fact its brownfield dev. Could mean a big cost ahead (not a problem for long term investors). I also have concerns about the fact that they don't pay as much as SUM, which i see as exposed risk to future govt policy.
Next year will bring more confidence on the business model for short and medium term investors. Action on the overhang will also be telltale in the shorter term. A bad result due to high costs one year could unduly see OCA being marked as a dog, which is why I sold out (I'd prefer less short term risk with the current political environment so i can exit with a profit for the year if required).
Other than that, they have a great position as the top carer (which i see as risk mitigating, but also a feel good investment), they have great accountants and management. The SP is cheap for long term investors, but also potentially cheap for short and medium term investors who accept some sort term risk.
Currently im sticking with SUM, buying the dips (possibly currently percieved by the market as fully priced). Interestingly SUM seem to be perceived as a defensive stock at the moment (imo).
I recently brought back in taking my average cost per share up a bit.
Earl Gasparich impressed me at the presentation I attended late last year.
Chair,Elizabeth Coutts has impressed me for a number of years as an Ebos director.
Director Gregory Tomlinson has impressed me as a major shareholder/director of HBL.He has a proven history in the retirement sector and has real "skin on the line" with OCA.
As OCA gets more runs on the board I expect I will add to my modest holding.
Let's see, top senior management (tick) with their own skin in the game (tick) award winning service delivery (tick ) (usually results companies get more than their fair share of the business), excellent land bank (tick) good development pipeline (tick) exponentially increasing tail winds in this sector (tick) results to date excellent (tick), under ave PE (tick) BUT everyone want 'runs on the board' as well! :laugh:haha
oops, only trouble is, as soon as there's 'runs on the board' might have to pay a lot more for the shares.
Just speculation of course and they might go out for a duck!
I don't imagine there will be much change after tomorrow, but do think the share price will double at some stage, just a question of how long it takes.
[QUOTE=Blue Skies;722319]
oops, only trouble is, as soon as there's 'runs on the board' might have to pay a lot more for the shares.
The way I invest is to do as much research as I can,then if I like what I find I buy a small position.
If I am wrong I sell,if results prove I am right I buy more.
Yes you pay more,but it is always best to add to a winning position,while cutting your loses..
Comes down to companies doing what they say they will do.