This guy been around as long as me
http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/player/201788972
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This guy been around as long as me
http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/player/201788972
Im afraid that is not the only loser--whole developing countries are facing possible bankruptcy,not to mention a few larger economies that are also having a rough time -Russia-even Saudi Arabia.
The problem with your premise IMO is that you are not thinking Globally--Whole countries used to be able to pay their bills and now that is in doubt. Many economies are slowing ,which means the hunger for oil has decreased as well.
That money that is now free to be spent elsewhere pales in comparison.
Have a look at the world markets
http://money.cnn.com/data/world_markets/europe/
air New Zealand..a well run company with good numbers that benefits from cheap oil is down 5% today
I would describe that as ..collateral damage
With the schools back Percy is back selling books.[with renewed vigour]
So far sales are great.
With lower petrol prices my biggest overhead, petrol has just come down very nicely.
I feel I am "well positioned" for another fantastic year.
I must say, as a new investor I really seemed to have entered the market with terrible timing. With global markets looking the worst they have since 2008 and banks introducing negative interest rates its a bleak looking future :(
But wait!
Could this chap have something here?
http://www.mauldineconomics.com/the-...-deflation-now
These are simply market pressures, no different to any other traded goods or commodities.
Lower prices will guide economic diversification, reform market distortions through removal of subsidies, improve efficiencies, drive structural economic changes etc
There may be pain along the way for some companies / countries with large exposure to oil EXTRACTION, but the world will see a net improvement as a result of low oil prices since consumers >> producers
As you must know, oil prices were around US$10/bbl at the end of the century, after the peaks of the 70's oil shocks. The world did not stop when oil prices were comparatively low, growth flourished. The same will happen in this oil price cycle. It was just the stimulus the world economy needed
We have been living in an OPEC supply constrained market for so long now, most have forgotten this is an artificial construct. Since shale hydraulic fracturing released more oil to the market, the supply side constraint has been removed. We are finally in a "real" crude oil market.
The equity markets are risk sensitive right now, and looking for things to blame. Oil and banks seem to be this weeks target
Yep ,eventually it will work itself out,if you dont mind the real chance of the carnage along the way. Two big things are at play here ,Oil and China (in a backdrop of an economy that has become an experiment in progress)--unlike the turn of the century.
I personally think your downplaying the importance of oil,but time will tell.
Technically, NZX two daily closes below 6000 looks bad but it's free-fallen through recent supports as well, including the rising trend line from the August lows, and closed below 5950 support at 5927 (but just above the 200MA). NZX finally catching up with the global equities sentiment?
I agree Skid. So much of the global economy has been based on oil for so long and this structural change is going to hurt. This is the first time in history that lower oil prices are hurting the global economy. There is now so much disparity in production cost that was artificial and also debt funded. Before OPEC was the swing producer now its high cost production that will go broke. Oil consumption in my view is likely to start dropping in the next 5 years as electric vehicles make inroads into the car market.
300 point rally? WTI up 12.3%? (one of the best gains since 2009), maybe the market is beginning to match up with the fundamentals (which in my view are far better than stock prices would indicated...)
I can't help thinking that lower oil prices will benefit the world economy more than quantitative easing.
Lower petrol prices,lower plastic prices,cheaper resins,cheaper hair products,asphalt,detergents,packaging,cheaper transportation.And so the list continues.Lower pump prices mean more money for NZders to spend.
Another sector to benefit will be tourism. A German tourist coming to NZ will benefit from our low $, his flight to NZ will be lower,his fuel bill will be a lot lower for his rental vehicle.As it becomes more affordable,so the number of tourists will increase.
I think the NZ economy will benefit in a big way as a lot of people are employed in the tourist sector.
I think that is true,Percy if oil is still cheap,but not extremely cheap (to the point that it brings down developing countries who depend on it and affects banks that are heavily involved) Somewhere around the $50 mark where its still a good deal for the things you suggest,but not at the expense of the reasons I suggested. (its not a great thing for countries to fall over for many reasons).--I get the feeling that those who are thinking of the benefits are not considering this--They are thinking of how things look in their western country--Its easy for us to get an insular frame of mind but we are better off IMO if everyone is looked after(at least on a basic economic survival level)
These wild swings are typical in this kind of economic (most say Bear)markets overseas--expect more
Shanghai will open on Monday so they will be in the mix this week
i agree with winner--Also keep in mind that this whole post GFC has been a fiscal experiment that has yet to prove itself--Yellen finally raised interest rates in an attempt to return to normalcy and look what has happened ,now that markets are not getting the free ride of QEs.
Successful,gradual raising of interest rates by the Fed is what will show if this scheme has worked ..or not-(along with good solid earnings as winner suggested)-Its very easy to think it can go on forever(injecting money) but it cant,the debt repercussions will catch up at some point---They know this ..thats why they are doing it(interest rates)--Ten years ago would you have ever dreamed that countries would desperately be trying to achieve inflation?
OPEC has agreed to try to achieve some cutbacks in oil production,(which is what has caused this rally)but their are alot more players involved now that are desperate so we will see how that goes.
earnings has generally been in line with expectations, some above, some below. Looking at several underlying indicators (in both NZ and the US) are looking good (particularity relative to how world markets are reacting) ... manufacturing activity, retail sales, employment data
It is hard to say "things are terrible" when several 'bottom line' indicators are looking good, and this could show in the next quarter.
From what I have seen, the big earning season drop is mainly thanks to energy and materials sector, with other sectors expecting a drop, but only in the very low single digits, and some continuing to improve - it could not be further from the truth to assume every sector is going backwards, something truly indicative of a recession.
The first article, that is about 3 months old, mentions: "When compared with analyst expectations, about 72 percent of companies have beaten profit forecasts. That's only because the consensus has been sharply cut in the past few months." Even if the consensus has been sharply cut, clearly things were no where near as bad as the 'consensus' believed.
The (potentially) more accurate and more recent retail sales, employment data and manufacturing activity would suggest things are not going backwards, rather just stumbling along, which would not be a surprice given the low inflation environment we are in... certainly not falling off a cliff.
http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/ind...2016/02/01/05/
"The energy sector is currently reporting a -78.6% decline in profits from last year, driven heavily by a -35.9% drop in revenues; the equivalent numbers for the materials sector are -24.7% and -14.9%. On the other side of the coin, the Telecom (+28.1% earnings growth and +11.9% revenue growth) and Health Care (+7.2% and +7.7%) sectors are outperforming"
"According to the earnings mavens at FactSet, the “blended” (combining actual results from companies that have already reported and estimated results for companies yet to report) earnings decline is tracking at -5.8% year-over-year, with the blended revenue decline currently coming in at -3.5% y/y.
"Analysts do expect earnings and revenue growth to return in the first half of this year, though traders are understandably skeptical until results actually start to improve"
Alot of the disappointing US earnings results has been heavily impacted by the US dollar strength, not necessarily by a 'world slow down' and although I haven't bothered working out sales of every S&P 500 company converted with 'last years' exchange rate, it would probably look significantly better. Also good to note than analysts expect things to improve, something I'm not surprised at as global oil prices stabilize and US companies further get use to a high(er) exchange rate.
That chart (Bloomberg link) is pretty telling - esp if we put another down quarter for dec15 and the likelihood of a down Mar16 quarter.
Analysts expect ions are positive - did you like that chart I posted yesterday showing how the analyst earnings expectations are generally pretty useless.
t_j - an "earnings recession" indicates that the recovery since the last recession is running out of steam - and they are often a prequel to the next full-blown recession.
Earnings decline in an over valued market not good
Maybe I misunderstood you TJ--This post gives the impression you think the fundamentals are good (rather than not that bad or only some are terrible) ---Granted stock prices have been pretty bad so even not so good fundamentals might look ok.--but if you think the fundamentals of the US economy are good ,then I would disagree,even though its not a recession at this stage.
Is this recent enough for you?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ear...ry_latest_news
Note....--The energy sector is looking worst, but all 10 S&P 500 sectors are facing lower expected earnings-growth rates for the first quarter than at the end of September
Recession priced in? Man, TJ, you gotta be joking :laugh:
I'd go with CAPE to look at current valuations and where we are in the business cycle.
I believe the US economy will behave very similarly to the NZ economy. Growth without inflation
We had 2 "false starts" before the apprpriate monetary conditions were established. The RB even hiked the interest rates 4 times for the second false start, only to fully reverse them the following year.
IMO The US economy is likely to follow a similar path, as the post-GFC economic settings required to achieve a 2% inflation rate appear quite different to what was established before the GFC. The US also has a low employment participation rate, so there are plenty of workers to fill vacancies without needing to offer higher pay rates and fuel inflation
The US monetary policy also considers growth and employment. So the FED really has a tougher job than our RB which is focused primarily on inflation
Janet's "pause" may be quite long, or will she be a hawk like our Graeme and push on regardless.
http://tradingdiary.incrediblecharts...ding_diary.php Colin has a knack .. and insight into China propping the Yuan, and other insights like re Aus Banks ... "Now is not the time to go bargain-hunting. What looks cheap today may be even cheaper tomorrow." Just his opinion of course, but always insightful.
Most times is not about what you, I or anyone else thinks is 'causing' the situation, it's about understanding what the situation is, especially the situation that affects us each individually, and doing something about it. Doing nothing while explaining our views on why it's a problem or not a problem, as the case may be, is still doing nothing. While doing nothing is a valid strategy it may not be a good one when the situation is obviously not good.
The only sound reason for buying a stock is that it is rising in price. If that is happening, no other reason is required. If that is not happening, no other reason is worth considering. ~ Nicholas Darvas
Quite a character that Nicholas Darvas
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicolas_Darvas
Don't think Warren ever appearedt with Judy Garland or Bob Hope
unless your mostly out and doing nothing but watching and learning, when things are not good:)
KW once put a link on the value of patience--(in this case being patient and not always having to be involved until the time is right)
When the sell signals fire -dont question why...sell and wait.
Its used to be Greed vs Fear....atm ..IMO..its Greed vs security.
Its still fun to look at all the possible causes of todays situation--after all ,they are trying to rewrite the whole economic system.Fiscal policies have replaced market forces--We'll see who wins in the end.
Tomorrow, Monday morning should be fine, maybe a bit of a relief rally after the US rebounded significantly on Friday. Eyes will on China as it returns from holiday, a week off after a US/Europe rout, who knows what will happen. So perhaps a market rebound in the morning and who knows what for the afternoon. Sure is volatile at the moment.
Whew - disaster avoided
The world is all happy again
Onwards and upwards to new highs?
Seems its the Tech stocks day today..DIL affect rubbing off on them.
Why are people being so optimistic with barely 1 day of trading? Excuse my ignorance.
Shanghai opened, gap down almost 3% ... probably be right though eh, won't affect the NZX.
Dow futures pointing north by 117 points at present. Market is telling Janet Yellen to capitulate on interest rate increase(s) aka do a RBNZ... egg on your face better than a rampant savage bear with claws and teeth isn't it !
Bring back Helicopter Ben and let the money rain down...then we all be happy and the smart ones can pile into silver and gold before it all turns to...you know what.
Those invested in Japan must have nerves of steel--down 5+% one day...up6+% the next.
It will be interesting to see if opec talk comes to fruition(cutbacks) so far the talk itself has helped oil.
Chinas not down that much so European markets should bounce---We are in the beach ball phase---Stability it aint..
Pretty good few days --opec guys talking gave oil a boost--couple days of market rallies took the shine off gold--but wait...opec guys are not really coming to the party--They wouldnt lie would they?--oil drops -gold rises....yesterday the dow defied a small drop in oil and rose---will this continue?....oil currently below $30 again($29)....stay tuned
So far, earnings wise, I'm enjoying this full scale collapse of markets and western civilization tremendously. Roll on Spark tomorrow and Chorus on Friday - I'm trembling as I write this.
I know! At this rate I might even break even on my BHP shares (bought for $16.74!!!)
Oil and Share market up...ok I get it ...but oil,,share market..and Gold up..thats a bit more unusual
Alot of nerves however have been settled Im sure
I think oil still has a way to go to calm my main concern--big banks ....DB in Germany seems to have settled a bit so thats good,but alot are invested big in energy
People live through share market corrections,bear markets and recessions ...but banks falling over is much more scary.
although things have stabilized I think many have seen how eventually the NZX does get affected by these things (last week)
Its tough being in the oil market though--They say they are going to talk(opec and others) and work something out in terms of production ,but Im not holding my breath.
the market bounced of the 15500 level again last week for a third time, looked like it was going to collapse thru the level but due to an oil announcement which funny enough coincided with this level it has bounced hard and maintains a trading range. On the weekly it still held levels I mentioned a while back so still hope for a bottom
Not crazy Pierre ...the DOW is operating very orderly, as per the TA text book.... see my latest DOW post
That announcement was nicely timed (see my latest DOW chart)......makes you think...eh? (suspicious mind:mellow:)...notice how the oil market has settled back down,,they think that announcement is a bunch of "Porkies"
Not looking better to me...this rally has just reached the caution zone (see my latest DOW chart)..Maybe another market inspired announcement will be released tomorrow or Monday...Janet its your turn:).
If the DOW is operating in a bear tide (not primary yet)...then this rally looks to be done, tomorrow will tell.. do we see profits taken..shorts started...if so then Friday could be the start of the next downturn....Next Monday a Black Monday in NZ?
http://www.afr.com/markets/earnings-...0160218-gmy8yq
http://www.afr.com/brand/chanticleer...0160219-gmyso3
And apparently things are really bad across the ditch...?
(to read the article, try stopping it from fully loading)
"At the halfway point in the reporting season, with some painful exceptions, earnings are holding up surprisingly well."
"Halfway through the latest profit reporting season, investors can rest assured that the bulk of the Australian-listed corporate sector is in good shape. "
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11593279
and the UK banking sector is about to crash as well, right?
Man things are really bad in the world right now... lol
Sometimes it easier, perhaps better to just track the international markets sentiment and forget about whether we think the various companies we invest in are sound. They go up and come down for reasons that have nothing to do with fundamental strength. A lot of NZ shares are tightly correlated to international market sentiment, we've seen this before a number of times. Ignoring it assumes one is content with capital gyrations offset by returns from the truely sound companies that go about their business, not worrying about the SP.
Dividends aren't necessarily a good reflection of performance as you can see by many companies around the world maintaining dividends to the detriment of their balance sheet. They are scared that withdrawal of divs will see the share price crushed.
Not quite a black Monday today but certainly nothing to shout about, If European stocks can creep up like the Asian markets did today the US should follow creating a decent Tuesday before reports start dropping later in the week?
I've heard talk of a short gold, long oil trade that is in play.
That will be hurting today and will be interesting for other markets if that position is shaken out.
i.e. selling long position in oil and buying back short in gold.
Short term maybe. I shorted gold over night and did very well percentage wise. Closed out when it approached the 1200 support level. Keeping an eye on it if it breaks down. Will depend on sentiment and/or news to break or bounce I assume.
It will be interesting if todays action reflects that--Dow was down ,but not spectacularly (just really erased the gains the day before )still up on the last 3 days or so--It may need more of a substantial drop to have an affect--(although I think the fact that it had a multiday run made some feel the bottom had been formed)and maybe it did --who knows at this stage
As usual things are not quite that simple TJ--The fear about the banking sector ,aside from derivatives,(especially Duetchbank ) is that alot of them have a big stake in financing the energy sector(which is having a bad run at this point)--Of course not all are overexposed ,but with banking it only takes a few....Energy may stabilize and banks come out smelling like roses...or not.
With banks,its usually a case of the odds are in your favor ,but if 1 or 2 fall then things get serious,so it pays to be prudent.
Its not guaranteed,but there is usually some warning rumblings that at least give the informed investors a bit of time to at least try to get their capital somewhere a bit safer(Kiwi bonds-gold ,etc) to avoid a possible ''haircut''
Its obviously a worse case scenario and hopefully will not happen----But as you know ,none of us are right all the time,and adopting a dismissive approach could be a hard lesson.
PS-Its interesting they use HSBC as an example --one of the more corrupt merchant banks(they have certainly been known to hide things and fiddle with results)
http://www.theguardian.com/business/...ndering-claims
TJ..As I see it.................A tipping point scenario...All it takes is a seemingly insignificant event to cause a failure within a very big industry that has massive financial wobbles..the resulting failure being huge enough to flow on to set off a global banking crisis ..
In history the main culprits have been property crashes or Bank systemic deviations..or maybe any other individualistic anomaly that had gravitated huge amounts of National funds towards its market..such as the ridiculous tulip investment mania ..
However. I've observed from past history that the recognising of the culprit doesn't always result in the imminent collapse as Michael Burry found out when He realised that many subprime home loans were in danger of defaulting.{Film - The Big Short}..It requires a catalyst which may happen now or take months or years to happen... or may not happen at all as time may correct/lessen the culprit problem....
One common catalyst is crowd panic which creates a bank run....then as Warren Buffett would say "Only when the tide goes out that you learn who's been swimming naked"
...............
..............
TJ ....At the moment the markets sees the culprit..The Petroleum Industry, the biggest industry in the world, which was once loosely valued including oil reserves at $US~173 Trillion (@$US100/Barrel) shrinking to $US~30 Trillion....
The market is obviously worried that a catalyst may emerge while Oil is still at its $US~30/barrel level and result in a realisation of that evaporated $US 70 trillion...That realisation event could be Globally destructive enough to send the world into another severe global recession .. .....The catalyst could be anything, it could be a very large event or it could be a trival seemingly insignificant event...(the extreme example in the Film The Butterfly Effect it was as small as air disturbance from Butterfly wings)
So its a natural behavioural thing at the moment for the world markets to flinch at any negative global event happening no matter how big or small in fear of that one unknown event being the catalyst...
Its also the reason why the normally uncorrelated Oil/sharemarket relationship is now correlating..
The oil industry won't fail.
Unlike tulips, the world relies on oil. Not just for transport, but most plastics and industrial chemicals as well. It's everywhere
Supply has been constrained by OPEC for many years, massively distorting the real value of oil
Shale fracturing has removed the supply constraint, and for the first time in a generation (or two) the market is behaving normally
Low prices will systematically remove higher-cost producers, and demand will increase as lower prices continue to flow through the economy or the world
The economics of oil consuming businesses will be improved if they don't pass-through all the benefit (refer NZR result today as an example)
Low oil prices are very good for the world economy overall, as there is more discretionary spending money available for other more productive uses
A few oil companies will fail, but business failure is part of the natural evolution of economies as technology and/or circumstances change (eg Kodak)
But low oil prices aren't so good for some companies that can only make money at a higher price.
If they fail, and they have borrowed big $ then the lender could be in trouble - the banks!
It isn't about the failure of the oil industry per se.
A few countries will have problems also - not a happy time for their residents. A bit of unrest maybe?
Of Course Not...The oil industry will not obliterate but all things fail with time, they correct (evolve) to gain more life expectancy (chaos theory) ....systemically....the oil industry could fail at any time and that failure would cause a beginning of an industry structure correction, Financial Default (bank crisis) and a very unpleasant global market correction...
As you said natural evolution, but at a higher level (sector) not at a sub-level (individual businesses)..These processess can be slow motion plays eg Property Market Failure 2007 USA, Spain, Ireland, Greece..which (accept Greece, maybe Spain?) has lasted for up to 8 years before the system finished correcting (evolving).
Low oil prices are very good for the world economy overall, as there is more discretionary spending money available for other more productive uses...The market doesn't agree with you on this one
The market will in time, once it takes a step backwards and sees the "bigger picture" - to use your words "higher level" (country and world levels), not sector level
The current market volatility is being exacerbated by extreme "herd mentality"
People will come to understand that post-OPEC-cartel oil pricing is not the anomaly, and that we have just been fleeced by OPEC for the last 25 years out of how many trillions.... Wealth transfer on a massive scale through corrupt business practises into the wallets of the lucky few who have oil deposits
Low oil prices have always fed through into higher world growth, it's a form of QE. As the longer term oil price contracts expire, the "low oil price" positive effect on global growth will accelerate
Have you ever tried standing in front of a stampeding herd?
The banks have been financing oil companies that have been operating within the framework of the OPEC era-not the post OPEC era.
we may pass into a post OPEC era where oil readjusts but the possible carnage left in its wake is the issue IMO
At some point the stampeding herd realises there is actually no need or purpose to the stamped and returns to business as usual, or even notices that the pastures they now find themselves in are much greener than the ones they left behind
In the US a few high-cost oil companies will fail, maybe a bank or two that over-exposed themselves to oil extraction/exploration will also fail. The oil market will start to correct to a happier price point as US fraking swing supply reduces. World growth accelerates, demand for many things grows as money not spent on "necessary" oil based products is spent elsewhere, including demand for (now cheaper) "discretionary" oil based product purchases. The oil market continues to correct to a happier supply/price point.
This has already happened to most commodities - minerals, coal, natural gas, dairy, oilseeds, consumer products. High oil prices only lasted this long due to the OPEC cartel, which has now lost it's relevance thanks to to new disruptive technologies.
Did the banks fail when other commodity prices reduced significantly? No, not on a scale that made the news. Countries and businesses adapted or closed, and life and the economies went on
I have zero sympathy for OPEC member states that now find the going tough. Although I acknowledge that as they withdraw funds from their many offshore investments vainly trying to maintain their extravagant lifestyles, that there may be a short term reduction in various asset values around the world. But I truly believe that this effect will be short, and then swamped by the following worldwide increase in discretionary spending. The wealth is being redistributed globally, rather than being concentrated in the lucky few countries with large oil reserves
The worldwide explosion in air travel and tourism is one example. Shipping rates on every import & export across the globe falling significantly is another
oil and commodities prices are simply just correcting back to there long term averages. artificially inflated by chinas big growth phase
oil long term price is 20 - 30, eventually this lower price will feed thru into other industries who enjoy bigger margins at the moment from the fall in commodities but eventually competition will cause prices in other industries to fall - simple economics
low inflation for yrs as this all plays out
anyway nice turn around in the us markets bullish a?
"at some stage" when the stampede stops,does not help the person standing in front of it--but its fine for those who got out of the way and waited.
From what I see ,the banks are not invested in the other commodities that you mentioned anywhere near that of the oil industry---What other commodity could do the damage Im referring to or the good your referring to---nothing competes with oil.
Its not a debate on how cushy the OPEC states have had it--Its a debate a on the possible damage from the banks jumping in big time
A happy outcome in the end does not mean that there may not be alot of carnage in the meantime.
Why do you think the volatility has happened?
One or two banks may fall...One or two banks were about to fall in the GFC--something the economic system deemed so horrible ,the Gov, decided to use bail outs and go down the QE road experiment.
I hope you are right ,but think theres a chance you are wrong,and even a chance is reason for caution.
The big banks are reason for concern IMO--I think we would be far better off if there were alot banks of a more manageable size,rather than a small number of mega Merchant banks,who seem to be infatuated with speculation.
Worth reading in the context of this exchange of views
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11595230
No real problem at the moment
Inflation adjusted DOW chart below
Only worry if it retreats to 5000
There is likely to be pain before the wide spread benefits you are suggesting xafalcon.
If oil stays at these sort of levels or lower then SOME of the oil industry will fail, after all that's what the Saudis want.
Some countries could 'fail' as well and the exposure to banks and the wider economy shouldn't be underestimated.
We have zero interest rates which should also put more money in people's pockets yet world growth in most Western economies is sputtering.
We now have low oil which will add to that.
The problem is we have had asset bubbles in equities, bonds & property & cash is returning zero.
So where do you put your money?
Yes, some oil companies will fail. That is the fundamental basis of capitalism - the best performers survive, the worst performers don't
Zero interest rates can't work in isolation. The banks must lend the money to productive enterprises, trade practices (esp subsidies/tariffs) must be reformed, and labour laws freed up.
The US and NZ are good examples of what is possible with low interest rates if the other elements are supportive - heck NZ's still has very high interest rates by world standards, and look how well we are doing with diversification and new industries flourishing to take advantage of new opportunities. Yes the US does currently have the "speed wobbles" but seems to be heading in the right general direction
The EU nations (by and large) are good examples of the ineffectiveness of low interest rates if the other elements aren't supportive. Banks aren't keen to lend, labour unions aren't keen to allow greater flexibility in employment, employers aren't keen to take on more workers due to inflexible labour laws, governments aren't keen to forgo their import tariffs, and EU producers aren't keen to surrender subsidies. This breeds inefficiencies which are now entrenched in many EU countries
Economic effects of low oil price and zero interest rates are simply not comparable with regards to raising growth
I would put my money into heathcare, retirement and tourism sectors. The boomers are now retiring, generally have sound financial backing and will be strong supporters of all 3, with tourism getting a boost from working age people as well
But yes, there could be some pain to come. I'm not saying there won't be. What I am saying is that there will be a huge boost to world growth as a result of low oil price, and the benefit will out-weigh the detriment
In theory you are correct, however places like Japan is proving otherwise. There is also a psychology around confidence and that is impacting the consumer. retirees have the biggest collected wealth in the demograph, but they can't get any interest and that is creating a hoarding cash mentality to a degree.
I would suggest NZ is doing very well due to the level of immigration.
Without that I would suggest NZs growth would be flat at best.