Should have gone in last week after all heh. Still hoping for an appeal to be lodged which should drop SP a bit, but then be beat down in court (IMO). Disc: watching but not yet holding
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Should have gone in last week after all heh. Still hoping for an appeal to be lodged which should drop SP a bit, but then be beat down in court (IMO). Disc: watching but not yet holding
To be honest, the share price had been beaten down so badly despite continued victories in court and failed appeals.
Now that the SP is actually on the move upwards and operations are beginning, I'm not sure if a last ditch appeal would mean much for the SP.
Sold half my stake at 32 cents NZ today. Im suprised at the run on the court announcement that was for all intents and purposes "expected". Not sure the coking coal price at the moment even makes this mine a viable option. But am holding the rest to see what eventuates. Am going to the AGM on thursday and hope to ask a few questions and find out more about the company.
Well, that was a short lived trip into the stratosphere, from 34c back to 26,
When will I ever learn ???.....never sold a one when I could have snared a 34% gain in a few days
I'm surprised no one has commented on the quarterly out this morning. Terrible result. Still losing money hand over fist this company. Their operating cashflow is still deeply negative. They cannot sell their coal for more than it costs them to get it out of the ground. I think it will be a while before we see 30 cents again. I would rather they defer Denniston till the price of coal has improved. No point in mining $100 worth of coal if its going to cost you $120 to get it out of the ground.
Most of BTR's current production is sub-bituminous (thermal) coal from the Takitimu mine which is used in local dairy and food-processing plants. It's not premium stuff so doesn't attract the prices that the high quality coking coal from the Buller area can be expected to. The future of this company revolves around Buller so they need to press on with this development as quickly as possible - IMO.
The escarpment project will produce coking coal which currently sells for around $150/t,
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2013...coal-bottomed/
so there is still enough margin in the project with allot of upside potential if you view this as the bottom for coking coal.
However I agree that the negative cash flow from the current domestic thermal coal operations is disappointing. Reading the quarterly report they see these as becoming cash flow positive as volumes increase. I my opinion, there is allot of support for the share price at these levels of 24cents and we are at the beginning of an uptrend which will take us well past 30cents.
If you were in for the long haul with this company then now wouldn't be the worst time to take a position. Both macro and internal elements look poor at the moment both that's the time you need to be getting in (with more risk obviously) I agree with comments regarding coking coal to thermal. it's very hard to see Bathurst making any solid gains out of thermal deposits but as I've stated before the escarpment project is worth pursuing. It's all very long term and I still believe we're 12-18 months away from seeing this company provide reason for positive SP movements. Capital on hand is the major issue, along with production targets being missed as was the main concerns of the independent reports on the businesses viability
Cheers for the replies Snapiti and Benjitara. No offence taken either. I am well aware of the coal price problem and agree Benjitara that now is probably the best time as any to get a stake.
As it happens have just come back from the AGM held in Wellington today. Very constructive and managed to glean that there will probably be another Capital raising of some sorts in the near future although most would have worked this out anyway. Spoke with 2 of the directors and they are both of the opinion that the NZ operations will be cash flow positive this year (or at least break even) and that the escarpment project is definitely earnings positive. THere will be synergy benefits. Looking at the quarterly out today I see $5m of admin costs... on revenue of $9m. So any extra revenue will not add to this cost. Also legal fees and time will now be a lot less (hopefully)
The coal that they will be selling for export is worth more than the coal that they are currently providing domestically.
The infrastructure is in place for them to go ahead and they are hoping to get up and running early 2014 once 25 permits have been signed off etc.
Will be interesting to see where they go from here. But any rise in the global coal price will significantly enhance their profits. Or a fall in the Kiwi will be just as effective.
Disc, still unsure but not as negative as I was prior. Hold a small holding, (my brother advised me to buy some and I thought why not) and will look to top up if price dips on rights issue or other capital raising. Anything under 15-20 cents you could almost treat as an option with limited downside....