Originally Posted by
bottomfeeder
Have to take issue with a few items. I dont think we can follow history right at the moment. We have had some events recently which have not been seen in history for many many years. When were mortgage interest rates down to 3.5%. When did we have the property market so hot as it was during Covid. When did we have Covid before. When did we last have CPI at over 7% and construction index over 20%. When did we have a European war that threatens the stability of the world economy.
I doubt the drop in property values by 40%. There is not a blanket drop in property prices. There are certainly those that need to sell due to over commitment, other financial requirements etc, but that does not set the values at -40% across the board. The house next door to me is on the market and it looks like it is going to sell at the value set a year and a half ago.
Retirement villages are not in a position where they have to drop their prices to sell. After all they retain ownership of their properties, and if they do drop the price of their licence to occupy, the round will come again sooner rather than later.
Also they have other income streams which have less impact than pure property prices.
Nevertheless the SP has been savaged lately, and when they will recover is open to much speculation. I would suggest very few people know when a recovery in SP will come.
Lastly, you dont make money by buying in a bull market, but waiting till the bear market is getting lowest. Sometimes you have to hold at the bear market prices. Interest rates could start to turn at any time, just need a few more banks in trouble. Recession is already on its cusp in many economies and we could see interest rates dropping again. Still very painfull being in the market at the moment, not just OCA but most equities.