new lows coming :t_up: :t_up: we should all re - joice
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Who knows what the future will bring and I respect your opinion. But there is no room for extreme negativity in investing.
I take issue with the notion that the "licence to occupy" value is somehow a mandatory tie to the current value of property. Mind you there is a lot of negative extreme thoughts about the crash in the property market. I havent seen it yet. There are those desperate sellers that have to sell, and there are properties selling at lower prices, but it certainly isnt at the stage of collapse.
OCA is not a non profit organisation. There are times that it is best to forgo a sale of a "licence to occupy" rather than sell for the sake of making a sale. The market is a dynamic being, and there will be ebbs and falls. Remember when people where buying willy nilly when mortgage rates came down to 2%. As if that was going to last. Some were paying exorbitant prices because of FOMO. I expect when inflation flows through to the housing market ( and it has to come, you cant keep building at inflationery prices, yet expect second hand stock to keep dropping in price.) we will see a resurgence in value.
You have to be a bit naive to think that nothing has already been factored into the SP at this stage. but is yet to come.
Intesting to see where we are in twelve to fifteen months time. I will still be a shareholder. We will revisit this whole scenario then.
Lastly while years of dealing with developers and banks has given you a wide experience, I would suggest that OCA and the economic climate today has not been seen for that many years and is something new.
Balance if the cap raise is so obvious and it will be at 50 cents if they dont hurry up then im sure you have a big short on? easy money it seems
I have stated before and will state again - I do not do shorting.
As for the CR, it is but my opinion and the 50c is an inevitability unless they get on with it.
And btw, CR at 50c does not mean the sp has to be at 50c - Ryman did it’s capital raise at $5 with its sp at $6.
And of course my opinion can and has been wrong in the past!
And you think you are not overreacting. When I said a CR would have to be at 60 cents (which is a lesser margin than Ryman) you had to say 50 cents. And away the scaremongerers ran with it. Lets be realistic rather than panickers. One sure way to lose on the market is to panic or listen and react to panic.
Many accused me of scaremongering on Ryman.
Have I posted anything today of a scaremongering nature?
I have stated that the RV sector is in retreat with expensive debt funded land banking and as such, unsustainable funding given the state of the property market.
OCA can choose not to do a CR and ride it out. That is definitely an option but at what cost if the need arose later?
The mistake that the RVs made was to keep buying ever more expensive land using debt, thinking that the boom was going to last forever.
pretty obvious they will have to cut the div otherwise a cap raise would be foolish if they did that and then kept paying a div
Loading up on debt?
At 20% of total assets they have hardly loaded up and the interests rate and the terms are incredible.
They don't have enough more like and your comment re Panda - they are absolutely right, should be doing massive debt funded share buyback provided they can keep running the show on op cash flow. Cancel the dividend as well.
Should be run as if it was a family owned business.