I welcome all bears to a Friday arvo picnic with open arms, honey pot will be provided.
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Thank you everyone re: the tax. I'm still new to this game and the more I've learned, the more I appreciate how much more there is left to learn. I've just sold; great if it were just for a week's holding, but nothing substantial given I've been holding for 3 months. I can see a potential dip so may as well take something while I'm up and - dare I say it - try to time my re-entry better. I've already framed the last 3 months as a very valuable learning experience, which in the long run is far more of an asset than a bit of additional profit in the interim.
Now I can grimace as I watch the SP go up (as it is at the moment). :lol:
Ditto.
The joys of being a long term holder of ATM is not sweating the daily up's and downs and not having to pay tax on long term gains. I've yet to be convinced that short term 'traders' do better at the end of the day.
Enjoy today and ponder where A2 will be in 2 to 5 years.
The way the whole market has run this week I'm expecting a dip next week and if the Trumpet could get loose with his Twitter account over the weekend that would be much appreciated Mr President.
Is it just us two left. Put 2% of my holding at $15.07c 2 days ago and have amended it 6 times since then, the last being $16.50c. The more the profit takers finish selling, the less the profit sellers left to sell:). Then the first profit sellers may have to buy back in at a higher price. Been there done that many times with a2. So looking forward to profiteers finishing and watching sp go through the roof:cool:.
At least three of us.:t_up: Int i have heard there is alot of money being thrown into stocks atm in a FOMO risk off xmas rally kinda way, atp. Are we entering a mini Euphoria stage?
Well done Joshuatree and See weed.... We might have to form a survivors club!!??
Over the last 5 yrs ATM has beaten the NZX50 index by over 2600% (as this chart shows - NZX is the squiggle at the bottom of the chart) and will continue to outperform NZX50 for many years yet. Crazy not to have some of this in your portfolio IMHO.
Attachment 10870
A cracking couple of weeks, so many doubts put to rest. Only question left imo is what to do with the massive cash war chest.
Great growth companies invest excess cash, if there’s nothing to invest in they give it back to share holders. I don’t want it back so am anticipating a big announce in the next few months, it would be a mild concern if the war chest just grew towards a billion $ without some show of ambition.
Meantime gltah, what a great investment!
Unbelievable , today I am seeing a very quiet but keeping on buying , doesn't matter how big the block is up 40K , 20K, 10K shares, it is just keep on scratching and scratching buying but funny enough the shares price is keeping at a same pace. I think the shorters are buying , yes they are buying and in a meant time keeping the price at a same pace. I bought some but sold out at lunch, and to my surprise it wasn't a sold down but a quiet collecting. I saw 1mil shares @ $1455(AUS) , 2mil shares @ $1477 , 100K shares, 70K... shares @ $1472(AUS) went through at once transaction...
Just a flicker in next February it shall be woofff $18-21/share.
I think this is the new revolution and is beginning as the investors start to have faith to invest in such a potential company with the new trustworthy tested CEO. THIS IS THE BOTTOM PRICE FOR A2MILK ATM.NZ .
Good chance of a dip come monday and we just need a bit more heat applied to the Geopolitical situation to get a series of down days in a row on the US market.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12289691
I think you are right to be cautious going into December. November has been a huge month for equities with many major stocks up 15-20%
Speaking to one of my old mates earlier in the week, A2 back into air freighting quite a bit of product to China pre-Christmas. Normally with supply they'd be sea freighting, but guess low on stock......
There have been reports of an Asian food shortage for years, due to growing population.
The a2 Milk Company (ATM) Another Tick for the Formula
20 NOV 2019
The a2 Milk Company (ATM)’s Annual Meeting was positive — with first time 1H20 guidance confirming strong revenue momentum, particularly in Infant Formula (IF), and upgraded FY20 margin guidance. Highlights were (1) a further broadening in sales channels in China; (2) signs of success in extending customer tenure and (3) gross margin momentum. Despite a share price reaction ahead of our earnings upgrades, we continue to view risk/reward as positive. Valuation metrics (EV/EBIT 16x, PE 23x adjusted for US losses/cash) are attractive vs peers, history and the market, particularly given ATM’s strong free cashflow and growth outlook.
We are attracted to the opportunity for ATM in existing markets in addition to new markets and products — with ATM currently only scratching the surface of a material market opportunity. Valuation outcomes are wide, but in our view current valuation metrics offer a favourable risk/reward, particularly when adjusted for loss-making markets. OUTPERFORM.
Did the same at 70c hoping it would come back to 45c to 50c a few years back and it went to $2.....bought back in and sold about $2.60ish....but didn't come back and then had to buy back in at $7 and have kept them. Still got one original block bought at 50c 4 years ago. I have a good system to get your tax down, put into action Feb last year.
You mean the old divvy strip then sell for a loss system?
a2m is knocking on $15s door.. knock knock knock let me in.
Extremely short squeeze for the shorts who actually built and increased their positions post the results!
Ouch! https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=a2m
Burn!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LCnebZnysmI
I got a wee tiny bit under 3/3rds. But will sit tight and watch from the sidelines with the M. Fool. Couta1 is right, last year 9 months up Dec to Aug. and 3 months down Sept to Nov. We are 4 weeks into the next uptrend, and am happy to squeeze another few $s out of this before it hits $18-$25. There will be another drop at some stage but think it is not too late to make a dollar or two or five before the next top:).
I've all my long term hold in tact, not parting any of those anytime soon (as they're all between $0.58c to $2 mark). Have couple of small trade parcels bought around $10 and $13 mark. Depending on how it behaves might book profit before 1H results are out in Feb 2020.
The shorters are in accummulative mode for the last 3 days, there are no reasons for the sp to bears IMO, there are huge demand for this stocks.
I reckon they are building for the next Bull trend up, small top up won't hurt for this stock but don't want to miss the train.
Just a flicker in next February it shall be woofff $18-21/share.
They are carving in any big blocks non stop. If they can buy 100K at $1576 ($15 AUS) non stop , I am sure my small shares at $1572 is alright. The VWAP is showing positive signs for a Bulls.
I think this is the new Revolution and is beginning as the investors start to have faith to invest in such a potential company with the new trustworthy tested CEO. THIS IS THE BOTTOM PRICE FOR A2MILK ATM.NZ
ditto , a2 has not got a competitive advantage , theres nothing special about a2 anyone can do it as witnessed by the large competitors now entering the space. its only a commodity
what it does have is a brand and jane is spending on it. can they out do the way bigger competitors in the long run who knows but spending on brand is there only defence
A lot of the stock market is hitting all time highs at the moment; A2 still as a few dollars before it gets into that territory. I’m more interested in how US is tracking with their marketing and what they end up doing with that pile of cash. It must be growing by a pallet a day.
I think with the extraordinary of A2Milk , the instos are thinking they may miss the boat therefor they are turning on their Accumulative Mode at the moment despite of the shorters. As you can see they shake and keeping on accumulate the stocks. The Instos are getting in early. SO HOW ABOUT YOU?
It is indeed a serious consideration. Certainly I think that this underpins and justifies the marketing spend, to whatever level. Get in early, entrench your brand, build awareness, be the original etc.
Of their major (current) competitors, everyone else is conflicted where they also produce A1/A2 products. However at the same time, in NZ herds are moving towards A2 with the use of A2 bulls - however I think total transformation would take a long time.
Mothers probably don't care - but never know with some of the (Chinese) brands what they do.
However like Fonterra going softly softly on A2, if they promote A2 products too heavily, brings into question their other products. Growing the A2 category and awareness helps everyone.
Brings into question their other products?
There is nothing wrong with their other products - A1 milk is fine!
A2 suits some people where A1 doesn't.
Me - I don't drink A2 because I don't need to.
Our kids didn't have any issues with A1 baby formula so I wouldn't have paid more to get (even if it was around 25 years ago).
Products are 'horses for courses'.
I don't see why some people seem to think you have to have either A1 or A2 in the market - there is room for both.
When (if) all the herds are converted to A2 then A2 milk is just MILK - like A1 was before A2 showed its' face.
At that point there won't be a premium for A2 - just for the brand (and brands are very important in this market (formula)).
Bugger all this yacker about the product - wtf is happening to the share price today
look at the rsi yesterday ... well over brought
America down and well overbought and shorters winning ....are we in for a bad December and share price back to $12
Careful mate, you get laughed at for suggesting fair value is $13, those who fervently believe might attack you with pitch forks for suggesting $12 :eek2:
After a huge November for the market with many leading stocks up 15-20%, common sense suggests December is likely to be "flat", at best.
Beagle is flying ... hahah It is just the Instos are telling the Shorters : time to pay back mate! and the Shorters have no choice by trying to get SP down to buy back as much as they can with as less loss as they can looking at the current ATM sp. In the mean time the Instos are keeping the SP from being pressed down from the Shorters "
"You gotta be burned mate" . Telling the Instos to the shorters.
Totally agree as a few of our folk are worry that some A2 copy cats will harm A2MILK ATM.NZ . I was one of them , then I realised that : There are no Karicare A2 or Aptamil A2 or Nestle A2 was even making any top 10 of 1 day sale 11/11,
and infact A2 was almost taking the number 1 spot Aptamil , mean the time A1A2 BECOMES HISTORY is near!
What a poorly written piece about brand value and power of marketing. You should probably read up on marketing 101 by great author like Peter Drucker who is fondly regarded by many as "grandfather of modern marketing". Google his name and read a little bit not just in this case but for overall understanding of power of marketing.
I remember Peter Drucker's marketing gems from my days at Uni in the 1980's. Took an optional marketing paper with my B.com because I thought one day I would have to sift the wheat from the chaff, (AKA deciphering commercial bull****). He's the stuff of legend.
https://www.forbes.com/2006/06/30/ja...l#640ec58c555c
“"....marketing is too important to be left to the marketing people."
A quote from that article linked above.
anyway good day for the shorts lol i should place emphasis on the fact a2 only advantage at the moment is first mover advantage and not brand so to speak. so my comment before was they only have first mover brand. not long lasting brand like coke etc as they havent faced any real competition to see if there brand is strong . so there lol time will tell
AUS
4:10:45 pm 4:10:45 pm 1454 453,141 3 $6,588,670 121
NZ
LOOK at this. HOLD TIGHT guys. :)
5:10:02 pm 5:10:02 pm 1526.63 225,000 6.63 $3,434,917 1 5:00:13 pm 5:00:13 pm 1520 246,146 5 $3,741,419 77
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=A2M
Game of nerves (in this case, of steel) by those shorting ATM!
They have actually not covered but increased their positions!
So lets look at the 3 year chart. We had an up trend for 14 Months...Jan17 to Mar18. Then a shocker down trend for 7 months...April18 to Nov 18. Then the start of next uptrend for 10 months...Nov18 to Aug19. Then a quick sharp down trend for 3 months...Sept 19 to Nov 19. So here we are one month into the next up trend? The average up trend in the last 2 years is about 7 months for ATM. I do notice and don't worry too much when sp gets pushed down for what ever reason. There seems to be a continuous stream of buyers coming back in to push it up again. Some of them including myself have sold and then bought back in knowing it will just keep going up for now. Must be hard to keep a good company down when revenue growth is $300,000,000 and plus? per year, 400 or 500 million bucks in the bank and no dept?:t_up::D:t_up:
A2 ACHIEVED TOP 1 IN NZX20 .
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/117950884/what-should-you-have-put-your-money-in-10-years-ago
But if you wanted to get the best return for your money over the past 10 years, it turns out that you probably couldn't have done a lot better than investing in A2 Milk.
Mark Lister, of Craigs Investment Partners, said A2 "took the cake" on a decade of great returns for stocks in general. "A $100 investment in A2 back then would today be worth a spectacular $18,082."
A2 was followed by Mainfreight. Its shares started the decade at $5.55 and ended it at $41.70.
But Lister said the New Zealand sharemarket in general had performed well - it delivered a return of 250.3 per cent over the past 10 years, or 13.5 per cent a year.
Well, you better put some PEB shares in your portfolio now then to catch the next potential 10,000% gainer.
Why?
Because ATM was given as much chance 10 years ago as PEB is given today to become a successful story.
Putting things in perspective! :eek2:
Such are the ways that fortunes are made and lost!
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=A2M
65m shares shorted - 7m more than when ASM sent a rocket under the stock.
What are these shorters missing or are we missing something?????
LOL Balance..... never thought I would hear you recommend PEB!
One of the current small caps may well be the next ATM and my recommendation is to keep an open mind and keep an eye open for the change in their trends. You have picked SKO (as I have) and I've also picked PLX (which you detest) and then there is PEB which I would not pick....yet. Which will be the next ATM? who knows but it is fun looking.
Good on you Winner! ATM is not likely to repeat its past success, but the key IMHO is that it will continue to out perform the NZX50 average of 25% increase pa.
My aim in any shares I pick is to outperform the NZX50. Simple slow wealth is fine by me.
Not recommending PEB, LF! :eek2:
Putting ATM's return in perspective - you would have been a super brave person to buy ATM 10 years ago when the sp was 8c. The company looked out and ready to be carted out of the NZX!
Takes an equally brave person to invest big and deep in PEB today - but hi, ex-director John Duncan just doubled his stake despite sitting a six figure loss, so who knows!
Don't you despise the way the broking industry like to ramp up stories like ATM and take credit while totally steering clear of commenting on the total losses of the Feltex, Wynyard, Intueri and CBL of the world?
I think they could have worded this better
The Board of The a2 Milk Company Limited advises that Managing Director & CEO, Jayne Hrdlicka, has agreed to step down from her roles
Well, that's a shock - Jayne stepping down and Geoffrey coming back in an interim CEO role.
Wonder how quickly her shares will hit the market?
Beagle will be happy - Geoff back in charge