This post alone should merit a holiday by Vince.
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OCA thread is either quite or fireworks ...nothing in between ...lol
Hopefully W69 will say something encouraging soon ...I understand he thinks downtrend is getting over ...it's surely consolidating ...after that up or down ?
Curious fact that one of the most active threads on Sharetrader goes strangely silent when the on-market activity starts to show signs of incremental price increase. Will today confirm the much-anticipated uptrend?
Fair enough Ronaldson, Thought it was about time to say g'day. Basically I'm procrastinating today on other stuff I don't want to do.
It's very pleasing to see that OCA SP might have reached bottom after a brutal and relentless 15 months.
Ive been observing the SP seems to inversely track US10yr treasury / NZ 10yr bond graphs which are now suggesting we are past global inflation peaks. I figure these 2 measures are driving the global funds aversion ( ie selling) to all things property. Those peaks coincided the same time when OCA was 76c. This, coupled with a sharp drop off in turnover also at the same time, also suggests the offshore sellers are now packed up and gone. After watching RYM get some massive love out of nowhere this week it is looking like the tide against the whole retirement village sector has turned.
I am not a chartist by any stretch, I'll leave that to Baabaa and others, but even I can see sentiment has changed, as it was always going to at some point.
The other pleasing thing of note is that OCA`s SP has broken away from parroting and trailing ARV, % wise.
As of 2 weeks ago OCA has risen nicely ahead of ARV which is highly unusual as the markets have always treated these companies as twins. I certainly disagree with that idea as they are quite different models and offerings of which the market has possibly not recognized until now. This is not to disparage ARV but to me it suggests OCA is now receiving more scrutiny on its own unique merits. Particularly at this point in time of its development.
-Lately care suites are really coming into their own with successful market acceptance. ( IMO the running down of regular rest homes leaving nowhere else for those in need to go has played into OCAs hands) OCA has 972 care suites while ARV has 114.
-Then of course OCA has the Helier pre-selling down nicely at some eye watering prices. I note they changed their wording 1hy23 that deliveries will now be both this FY23 AND early FY24 . So slightly behind plan, but considering the year it's been ….. no biggie.
Where does this leave the math? ….Well the biggest question is new sales, what will they be?
FY22 they sold 92 new apartments . They should have sold even more than that this FY23 given their high available new stock but as we know first half sales were BAD, only 28.
After reading SUM sales were poor NOV and DEC, I have allowed for 65 sales FY23.
I have not allowed for any Helier or Windermere-Christchurch new sales being banked this FY23. ( it's always a possibility)
I get 4.95c EPS this 2HY23. To compare that to last 3 HY periods …3.9…4.15…3.9
So based on my expectations Mr Market is currently affording a PE of 8.6 at 85c. It is my expectation the company's annual profit will grow 10% YOY.
With the turbo boost of Helier and CHCH happening just around the corner 1HY24 and with the unfreezing of awful sentiment to the sector ( ie. RYM and SUM regaining some love) it is very difficult to not see MUCH happier days just ahead for OCA.
As a long term investor in OCA`s projects and model, the whiplash of the share price, despite clinging to the fundamentals of the company has still been most difficult. The market says each day what an awful company this is……The market is right , it is always right …but just like the last 3 years... Just you watch it change its mind yet again.
Good comments Maverick. And OCA has indeed closed today well bid at 87c, up from the low of 76c just 4 weeks ago, which is a significant increment in % terms. But ARV even better today, up 4c to $1.18. So the whole sector is benefitting from a change in sentiment and a generally oversold circumstance. I think the opportunity to enter really cheaply is quickly receding, and we may even see FOMO in play again before too long as folk start to reassess.
I know the property market has well and truly gone off the boil but the desire for security, the need for aged care services, and the availability of social facilities and amenities among a peer group, is well proven in this country as a powerful attractant for over 70's. And the current demographic tail wind is compelling and simply can't be "switched off ". Not to mention actually replicating the existing built environment of the NZX listed entities at current labour and materials costs would probably make a mockery of valuations attributed for the purpose of their financial statements.
An incoming tide waits for no one. So top up while it is still reasonable to do so.
OCA low was 72c on 20/12/22, so at 87c it's up 20.82% from that, a nice gain for anyone who got some. Still down a whopping 45% from the SP high, and 35% discount to NTA.
Technically OCA has made a potentially very significant breakout -up- through a very nasty long term down channel since the high back in August 2021 (!) .. no wonder it seems so long, because it has been. OCA is currently tapping on a minor price resistance at 87c but the basic indicators are now in oversold territory, so unless that FOMO you speak of kicks in, expect some profit taking from the savvy traders amongst us.
I'm still yet to breakeven on OCA.
Bought in Apr last year above $1 and again in May at 0.99
Bought more luckily at 0.73 in Dec at only 1c above its recent lows, bringing my average now down to 0.89, and I can't wait for it to breakeven. This is quite a volatile stock and I'm considering whether to just recover my losses, should the price rise to my breakeven point. If interest rates rise again in Feb, I suspect the sentiment will turn negative again for the whole sector ?