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Remember a few months back some of the posters were speculating what the SP could be by end of this year?
My pick was that SP might be 10c by end of this year, will stick to my guns.
Lets not get ahead of ourselves - 10c per share implies a more than $207m market cap which isn't going to happen for a pre-production mine in NZ.
We could potentially settle between 1.5 - 2c per share by end of year if the good news keeps flowing.
As Jonu pointed out, it should be simple math, resource* price - cost, then throw in some market expectation for good (further upside in resource or price of Au) and bad (NTL ability to do it).
I love the idea of 10c, even 6c (10 bagger), hell, after all this time 3c would be stellar.
"Spectacular" to me says SP should be North of 1c VERY soon, how far above........well, who knows.
Sure, it depends on what the updated details are. I just don't think the details are going to warrant this stock suddenly having a end of year market capitalisation of greater than say HLG ($184m) for example - and I'm a bullish holder. While not impossible, I think that outcome this year is extremely unlikely.
To demonstrate - your 500m in profits. Using $1672.06 NZD per ounce, $568.00 USD prod cost (NTL annual report 2016), $1.37 USD to NZD - would need 560,000 oz gold to generate that profit. That's assuming both that the gold price doesn't diminish or production costs don't go up (both dicey). Either way wouldn't change the fact that we aren't producing yet.
I'm all on board NTL and looking forward to the future. Let's see what tomorrow brings and not count our chickens before they hatch yeah?
Also, I don't think comparing sports betting to investing is a good comparison.
EDIT: Although now I think about it, 560,000 oz would be a 'spectacular' upgrade....
I know 10c isn't realistic, just saying that stranger things have happened in the world as evidenced by the rugby in the weekend. 10c was just a number thrown up in the air.
It's not realistic to assume total ounces would go to 500,000oz this fast, but like I just said - stranger things have happened...
Being a large holder I'd love to see it jump to 10cents!.....but I agree with Antipodean it just isn't going to happen. Impossible to say where the price will settle when the trading halt is lifted without knowing what the new reserves are. (I'll take a guess at double from now). And still that stuff is worthless until there is consent to get it out of the ground and full scale mining is underway. Given it's taking months and months, almost years, just to get a traffic management plan in place there is no certainty this mine gets past bulk sampling....and then still the glod price and exchange rate to consider....so lots of water to flow yet, but yes, I think this puppy is looking good...but I think we'll need a bit of paitence until we hit the 10c mark :)
Well today's the big day. My pick is they won't lift the halt while one of the exchanges is closed so they may release the update this morning but maintain the halt until mid-day.
I have been pondering on the extraction costs. Someone with mining experience may be able to help out, but surely the higher the g/t the cheaper the finished gold to produce. So it becomes a delicious double whammy, more gold and cheaper per ounce to extract. Robbo over on H/C says historically this mine rates as one of the highest g/t for an underground mine world wide.
Good luck to all holders. It's been a long and frustrating ride. Let's hope this is the start of big things.
We've still got to get past the council traffic plan and greenies?
I've been telling my mate at work to buy some for weeks , but he has been procrastinating. So today he decides to buy !! Better late that never. My daughter bought some with her Christmas present money, so we are having fun with this as a family. She said she would have wasted it all on junk anyway, so isn't worried if she looses it all, but I think she will be happy today.