Northern Hemisphere summer holidays. June, July, August, certainly has an influence.
Holiday on Martha's Vineyard or stare at a screen...
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Market structure since the October lows has been bullish. Next stop 4300?
If we analyse world markets, we don't see broader market run except for selected crowded stocks.Eg: S & P 500 over 10% gain this year has come from a few large companies. Also we see volatility. Anything goes up very fast like a rocket within the short period will drop rapidly.
Yes, good to be in an index. Imagine trying to actually pick stocks. Would be...tricky.
With the ftse100 British shares it would have been wise to sell on 31 December 1999 and stay away ever since. One GBP was worth $3.10 NZD then. It is worth $2.06 NZD now. The ftse100 (capital index)was 6930 then. It is 7490 now - A whopping 8% increase this century in local currency. (-26% in NZD terms!)
When we invest in foreign markets, we should not ignore Curency risk. But there are two ways to mitigate. 1.Finding out companies which are going to benefit and take positions on them.2.Only invest in multibaggers. I was in a UK forum as well. We have to find out great winners before crowds come in droves. I lost because of Curency. But got above average gain from taking position in one commodity company. In every situation, there are opportunities for intelligent investors and traders.
100 Baggers: Stocks that Return 100-to-1 and How to Find Them
The key characteristics of 100-baggers -Why anybody can do this (It is truly an everyman's approach. You don't need an MBA or a finance degree. Some basic financial concepts are all you need.)
https://www.amazon.com.au/100-Bagger.../dp/1621291650
When we are thrown pitch after pitch each day, it can be hard not to act when everyone is yelling "Swing, you bum!"
I don't think you need to worry about predicting what might be a 100 bagger as such.
The trick is to find a company that you genuinely intend to hold forever. Then you just set and forget. If you do that over a long period of time you will do just fine, and probably better than average,
You might not get Elon Musk rich, but I am not sure that is a worth goal anyway.
‘‘The market, like the Lord, helps those who help themselves.But unlike the Lord, the market does not forgive those who knownot what they do.’’
Thanks to my one and only 50 baggers not only helped me to recover losses that I made in the past but also to stay in the stock market. I recently read a book on great value investors. In their portfolio, at least they had few multi baggers. Very interesting.
There are two types my multi-baggers
1. Speuclative mutil baggers: They send stocks to the roof by telling that they are going to make huge profits as a result of something they have. Eg: They have invested in some minerals
2. True mulitbagger: These companies have strong balance sheets, generating good cash flow, there is a demand for their products in good and bad times.
I only like to find out the second category.
Mining companies is where multi baggers is quite a regular event. If you know a bit about geology & mine processing then they can be a fairly reliable punt. Tech is quite similar in a way, however tech is continually changing if the company doesnkeep up then its like a mine that runs out of resources.
Some commodity stocks sky rocketed as a result of rising commodity prices.When there is a demand for medical gloves there were demand for rubber. When all vegetable prices rocketed palm oil prices also rocketed. When gold prices went up gold shares also went up. Now they are falling rapidly along with commodity prices.
"Daytr;Mining companies is where multi baggers is quite a regular event. If you know a bit about geology & mine processing then they can be a fairly reliable punt. Tech is quite similar in a way, however tech is continually changing if the company doesnkeep up then its like a mine that runs out of resources."
What about starbucks?
What about home depot? Started as a single store
What about Microsoft?
Those 100- baggers had strong competitive advantage, generated high return on capital over a long period time. I found food stocks also have become 100-baggers after 30 years.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/7-sup...182202169.html
Not just from the rise in commodity prices although that is obviously a factor. I am talking about junior mining companies that convert an exploration program into production. There are countless examples but to name a few. Northern Star Resources, Sandfire, Evolution Mining were all my customers.I remember when Fortescue was a 20c stock, Paladin went from 1c to $10. Hill 50 gold back in the day, Alkane Resources is another that's done well. I have others I am watching now that seem like candidates to replicate those sort of performances. It is high risk, high reward but if you have a background in commodities or Mining you can narrow that risk.
positive market action on potential breakout today . should get if not already started a big short stop run esp if goes thru 4300
economic news helping too
Payrolls rose 339,000 in May, much better than expected in resilient labor market
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/02/jobs...may-2023-.html
powering the dow
China Mulls New Property Support Package to Boost Economy
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-02/china-mulls-new-property-market-support-package-to-boost-economy?srnd=premium-asia#xj4y7vzk
The current ftse100 dividend yield is 3.78% and has varied between 2.4%-4.5% over this century. So in local £GBP terms - after tax returns may probably be in excess of inflation or a bank deposit.
In NZD terms the compound after tax dividend yield may have beaten NZD inflation (78%) this century*. When you factor in the NZD decline of the Ftse100 capital index, you would probably at best have broken even with inflation or gave gone backwards.
This does not take into account if you can successfully beat the index with stock and sector selection.
* I have not calculated this as tax regime/FIF complicate that.
You would have missed out on a x5 increase in the NZX during that time.
Even the ASX 200 has done better.
European stocks are good for picking bottoms though. find a country to invest in then once it hits the support level... BUY.
No I don't know QPM or any of the board or management. I just skimmed the quarterly and it appears they are more a processing company than a mining company. Is that correct?
Nickel processing always has huge Capex attached to it, dealing with extreme heat & acidic liquid that melts steel in months.
Re companies I am looking at, I will pass on a few names as I get set. A little local gold miner NTL looks like it might finally get going this year. Never going to be huge but at $9M market cap it won't take much for it to double or triple etc.
Yeah, you're comparing the NZ50G with the UK index. One Gross one not.
NZ outperformed I'd say but nowhere near 5x vs flat.
UK done just over 4% CAGR from the top of the dot com cycle with dividends reinvested. So with currency you would not have done well at all in NZD.
Not sure what NZX returned from the very top of that cycle but obviously better.
From when the index was invented in 2003 done pretty well but that's off a bottom not a top.
NZ Gross done 8.9% from July 03 vs sp500 9.6 both total returns.
UK companies who benefit from weak pound are:
Ab Foods(50 bagggar)
Diageo
GSK
Caveat Emptor
Inside selling isn’t always a bad sign. Inside buying isn’t always a good sign.
Everybody make mistakes in markets.
https://hedgefollow.com/largest-insider-buys.php
Largest Insider Buys
https://hedgefollow.com/largest-insider-sells.php
Largest Insider Sells
I've yet to see anyone get a 4900% return here on ST(I could if I'd held my CHN shares till peak!!!!! doh) ..but then I'm not looking over very long term that does change the picture somewhat .. and one can use leverage and then you can really make spectacular returns ..but as usual more potential growth = more risk ... If you can handle the risk then yes the ASX has many companies that have and could do those kind of returns
...but for every one that does will be another than crashes and burns ..I de-risk by holding a diverse set of min 8x companies ..also no more than a lower percent in the real high risk x high return stocks .... I don't know anyone on here that takes as much risk as I do ...most on here get excited getting 10-20% returns PA and invest according>>>
I borrow fraction of funds invested ASX from the bank -- (just re-fixed $188k 5.99%) so this is leverage funds my company uses ....now if I reach my 100%+ return Target PA 188k turns into $376k..... costs $11,261pa to 188,000 = 1569% return on costs to loan..
Also the loan interest is fully tax deductible ...
NZ Property has been a great location to use leverage
I once invested into buying 7x sections same street sold year later, the bank used my RES equity so all I spent on the trade was interest on the loan over the year + legal costs + advertising (I sold privately).. made 1700% on funds invested ... pretty safe trade overall ...
..more than happy to hear about these stocks or stock options with potential 50x bag returns this decade
I know dividends aren't free and the share price is adjusted according to the payout. However, over the last few years it seems like the price recovers in record time. There was an avalanche of dividends last week, next minute we're in a monster rally.
Or maybe I'm just imagining it.
Goal of 100%+ return on capital invested ..done it couple times(and recently during the Fy) since I started trading company 2006 .. but then I'm focused on the higher risk .. my signature give a guide some I've done well with in recent times...
Generally you need to be sniffing around the nano-micro caps to get this kind of returns the companies that aren't on the radar of the Pros/Insto's generally ..
Getting good swing and even day trades helps ...
My CAGR ..not sure I did work out many years ago and it was around 20% mid last decade for the previous 10yrs..started in 06... after having a good 04/05 not being a tax paying investor
My last 4x FY gross trading profit return on Capital invested start of Fy (I've not added the extra leverage % gains on loaned funds or FX gains / losses)
23Fy = +14%
22Fy = +53%
21Fy = +99%
20Fy = +7.69%
19Fy = +1.1%
18Fy = +134%
So my Companies average gross trading profit % on Capital last 6yrs =51.465%
Over these last 6yrs I've only taken out capital ..
And yes I've had some bad years 08/09 were rough large losses .... 13/14/15 I built up over 400k in trading losses ...
Adding more Capital in 16 and been much better since
No way do I think I'm a world class trader .. just an uneducated simple guy focused on the ASX resources sector
If you want proof SR PM me your email I can send you the thousands of trades I've made over the last many years from my CMC acc
JB I have seen a lot of those small cap opportunities on the ASX and it can be very rewarding but it is a risk. The ASX is a mess of bot trades and shorts. Looks like the wild west compared to the NZX.
Also I shifted to a new area 3 years ago and I saw exactly the same opportunity you were talking about re sections and I still kick myself for not taking a punt on at least a couple, they tripled in value in 12 months.
If these numbers are true then you are more than a world class trader.
I spend a huge amount of time reading the fund letters from around 50 of the best investors with long term outperformance records and many others as well. And I haven't ever seen numbers close to this from any of them. Not even close.
If you CAGR 20% for the decade beginning in 06 and started with 50k, then added 50k per year (as you would if you were punching out 20%) then you'd end up with 2 million in 2016 and then on that if you earned nothing until 2018 and then on numbers provided by you, through 2023 youd have 17.7 million now.
This is without the effect of leverage as you say, also you'd have unlimited capital from friends and family if you were getting these numbers.
So with some leverage etc you'd have to have an absolute minimum of 25 million now, and that's not factoring in your 2017 returns.
Very very impressive and possible if you're working in nanocaps in that sector.
Not calling anything, if he's telling the truth he has the best record in the world from 2006 until now.
Nobody to touch him that has ever published their record.
But what do you mean 'offered me the proof' Mike?
Is posting your returns on an anonymous forum offering the proof?
Mike?
Also while I'm at it, ANYONE could be c*&k sure buying OCA in the 60 cent range.
sailor has trouble believing anyone can achieve great returns , obviously does not believe anyone can. must be because he has never acheived a great return ?
Was better at 40c
Good for you JB. Not that anyone here has anything to prove to anyone else.
First time I am studying different types of investors and traders other than great value investors and contrarian investors.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CIXH1cceujg
I have the same policy as the US navy. Neither confirm or deny. I had heard of OCA before covid, well before.
That's fair enough.
I don't think it's rational though to question me for doubting that a poster on sharetrader has done unleveraged 29% CAGR over 16.5 years, and states that he used leverage, so returns well over 30% CAGR for 16.5 years when Buffett in his prime did 31% for 11 years.
Just do the math on even small amounts of capital... What's someone worth tens of millions doing arguing with Sailor on ST?
Let's be real here people.
Anyone posting that they have dramatically outperformed Buffett in his prime will get some push back from me, and before jumping in the defence of whoever is stating that, just have a think about things...
I think you extrapolated his results out to something he never stated he did over the longer term. If you took his 400k loss plus interest and inflation into account and maybe counted use of money verses some index that he could have used at the time what result would you come up with?
Not at all.
His statement was very clear and simple.
He stated a 20% CAGR for the decade ending 2016, beginning in 2006.
Then he stated each years return from 2018 though to this year.
So it's easy to calculate.
The bad years are already counted for in his 20% CAGR, that's the definition of CAGR.
And remember this is unleveraged, so actual returns far higher.
As you said, someone needs to learn to read, such as "I only took capital out".
But apparently everyone lies on this forum, except SailorRob and he has some distorted view that everyone owes him an explanation.
It really makes this thread quite tiresome & makes me wonder if it's really worth contributing at all.
My preference is that we all help each other to make a buck, not snap like a rabid terrier.
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/k-...020014906.html
K-Pop Stocks’ $5.4 Billion Rally Emboldens Bulls
https://res.heraldm.com/phpwas/restm...04000212_0.jpg
Well since 2006 ... I haven't added much if any real extra funds than the 40k I started with and doubled pre forming the company 06 (on advice from the accountant)next big add was 2016 after selling Queenstown property going debt free and having few dollars left over
I would pay the interest on the loans out of my seasonal job along with other costs many years(then later had small vending business pay costs)
I agree when you look at my average return last 6yrs I should have way more capital ?? I did pay off loans, buy new car for the wife ..and of course pay the TAX man upwards 28% of my profits ..
Longer term if indeed once I go through all my accounts for the trading company which I will one of these days ... I'm missing Pre 07 numbers ..
I know from memory I was smashed over the 08/09 period and then again 12-15 ...I recall if I'd sold all my shares at the bottom i the mid 2010's I'd still have owed the bank and parents over 200k so I must have been down some pretty horrible number -50%+ etc ...it was a very bleak time for me and many Micro-cap ASX resource stock traders of the day wiped out many ..seemed like good or bad news the SP would still fall ..
COVID 2020 was another date I recall being dumbfounded how such a heather portfolio could turn to ****!! ...smartly I didn't cash out and was rewarded massively...
I think one must remember I'm not trading millions/billions like the buffets of the world I'm 95% trading 10's thousands ,,, much easier to hunt out those gains ..just go look at say MAY or LRS chart two of my largest holdings at present ... 5%+ moves either way daily is common ...not hard to see how one can trade pips here and there and collect good returns more so swing trade for me... these companies have great volumes and value MAY today total A$1.4Mill LRS A$2.5mill ....I could never trade the NZX
I had a rough add up last 12months I've had 240x trades
MY day job since MAR22 is Share-trading ... after I returned more in one day than I'd made working at sea the previous two year!!! I knew it was time to focus on the main earner ... do have 1x commercial property that adds a few dollars but mostly pays off the loan it still has ..sold my other vending business ..
So one year later I'm so very happy to be able to continue to focus on what I love trading the ASX ...and not working for anyone else .. I spent many hours over the previous 20 years working at sea dreaming of the day I could walk away be my own boss .. so much doubt in recent years ,,I'd fail and have to go back cap in hand broke ,,I've made it past a year heres hoping I can continue to do what I love ..
exactly that 13-15 period was brutal to go from paying small amounts of TAX to over $400k in TAX credits !!! you got me to look over many of my Fy accounts today and I can't even recall having such a small amount in the market like 50k etc ...but there it was in black n white ...
So I'm certainly no smart trader that walked in a kicked ass like a buffet ..but a guy that took the hard road and never gave up (the day job LOL) and learnt my small little niche in the marketplace playing around with the unloved and up incoming nano-micro cap resource stocks some 20yrs just refining it ... luck certainly would have played its part ...
As for setting up the trading company..... was my accountants ideal he seen me double my money doing a few trades over the year back to back pretty much and said I should be paying tax if I wanted to progress .. I's got into spec building few homes units etc so had couple other companies one a rental the other for spec builds around the same period so dealing with the accountant was a massive help ...and I'd say the same for any budding trader get a good accountant
Well if I just start from 17FY and continue to get some great trades maybe I can beat Buffetts CAGR .. If I include all my investments(including personal) I think it would be pretty good .. last 23Yrs etc ..but I do wonder where in the money went ???
But as I said he's done it with Millions I'm doing it with hundreds thousands ,,,, My largest purchase was building home in Qtn $700k buffett would laugh at any investment that small
JBmurc
Good on you! With your experience in good time and bad time, I am sure you will do well in the stock market. Experience count lot. Once retire my hobby is going to be active involvement in the stock market. Although I prefer investment for the long run, I want to do some trading as well.
Surprisingly, the best trading I ever did was during Covid-19 period. It was like god sent trading for me which helped me to stay in the stock market. It was very difficult period for many investors world wide. In fact,those who panicked and over-leveraged lost heavily. Those who had experience and knowledge on the investment world not only survived but also manged to get above average capital gain.My job that time was how to come out from the most difficult situation.So I stared my home work and found traders, speculators and investors were heavily betting on health related stuff, shipping and transportation related stocks. As they were very hot, I tried to find some other stocks like food and commodity producers which are going to benefit and took some positions accordingly. One became a more than 4 or 5 baggers. First time I realized I am not bad at trading as well. When the right time comes I will do trading as well. As I said, currently my main Job is preserving my capital.
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- Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood's reputation as a star stock picker may be at risk.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/...-stocks-2023-6
good on you for doing what you want to do , full time investing/trading or any business venture where you give up the safety of a regular paycheck takes real courage.
As long as you have a good money management plan im sure your do fine. your results posted show you know what you are doing and have found your sweet spot in the market
Minimum wage 50k now...
People who support minimum wage laws have a misunderstanding of how markets work, and don't understand that these minimum wage hikes actually hurts the poor in society. These people cheer and feel good about themselves whenever there is a minimum wage hike, but ask them what the correct minimum wage is and they will never have an answer. The correct answer is there should not be a minimum wage, leave markets alone and they will deliver efficient outcomes.
Correct, better still, when people harp on about how great raising it is, just say to them why not raise it to $100?
Why stop at $22?
If we have wage controls, then why not price controls? Why not a maximum wage?
Why not let the state determine the price of everything... After all they know best.
[QUOTE=ValueNZ;1006346]People who support minimum wage laws have a misunderstanding of how markets work, and don't understand that these minimum wage hikes actually hurts the poor in society. These people cheer and feel good about themselves whenever there is a minimum wage hike, but ask them what the correct minimum wage is and they will never have an answer. The correct answer is there should not be a minimum wage, leave markets alone and they will deliver efficient outcomes.[/QUOTE
What a load of tosh.
Why don't we go back to the Victorian era whilst we are at it? Send kids down pit.
Australia for years had a much higher minimum wage than NZ & it didn't hold them back.
NZ has recently just caught up with our trans Tasman neighours.
Minimum wage workers should not have their remuneration governed by the whim of the market & the most powerful.
Would those immigrants be better, or worse off in New Zealand? If they are worse off, then why would they move here. If they are better off and we are better off from the cheaper labour, why would you have a problem with immigrants moving here?
Just sounds like a mutually beneficial transaction between parties to me, but hey maybe I'm just an evil capitalist scumbag.