Good news - Treasury forecasts that property prices will rise to new highs in 2026 (only 4 years away).
Just be prepared to ride out the slum until June 2024 - only 1.5 years away.
Think I will keep my powder dry for a little while yet.
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Good news - Treasury forecasts that property prices will rise to new highs in 2026 (only 4 years away).
Just be prepared to ride out the slum until June 2024 - only 1.5 years away.
Think I will keep my powder dry for a little while yet.
I guess the only thing we know for sure is that neither treasury nor any other analysts are able to predict the future. They got it sometimes right and sometimes wrong in the past and that's the way it will stay. While everybody who makes enough predictions gets from time to time a prediction right, they will get as well many wrong.
What we do know is that so far no bear market lived forever - i.e. at some stage prices will turn upwards again. And to be fair, so far this bear was neither particularly long nor deep - so, what's all the whinging about?
Prices might turn in 3 months (unlikely), 9 months or the year after (any longer would be really unusual) - who knows?
The ideal investment strategy for this particular bear will be revealed with the benefit of hindsight, but the options are basically:
a) stay full in and ride the bear out (which can be ok as long as one has enough cash to get through the trough).
b) stay in cash until you think the trough has passed and buy in later (and obviously lose the initial gains as well as taking the risk of tapping into a bull trap) or
c) guess the length of the bear, divide your available cash by the estimated bear months and buy every month a parcel - averaging out your risks and opportunities.
I shall tell you in a couple of years, which of these strategies would have been best for the bear at hand :p ... but see option b) as the most risky one;
Forecast is just that. They know the way inflation has been progressing, and in particular, not the CPI, but the construction index. It is only when the public realises that the costs of building has gone through the roof, that secondhand property is cheap. Only desperate sellers, who have really overcommitted themselves, thinking that interest rates will only keep going down as well as investors who want to make a quick buck, are the ones selling at the moment. Oh yes and those elderly people who have got no choice.
Should we set a market by the lowest common denominators, and if we do it usually is only a short term trend. Perhaps buyers are influenced by the media, thinking we are going to get a bargain soon. But I think that recovery in house prices will start to take affect much sooner than Treasury forecasts. All we need is a break from interest rate increases to restart the fire.
Now licence to occupy is a different kettle of fish. Are they really tagged closely to movements in house prices. They certainly are not tagged closely to interest rates, because usually those in a position to go to retirement villages dont borrow to occupy, or if they do the amount is very small.
covid death figure's not to good this week
ok so you dont like talking about covid and how it impacts re-sales or how it will. i wont say anymore.
i read today KFC has a coleslaw supply problem maybe since you dont want to talk about covid maybe you can enlighten us if your starting to see issues around cabbage availabilty in retirement villages ? have you seen the price lately i could post a graph ive got one it has tripled over the last yr :scared: