People that resort to personally attacking others it's usually a reflection of themselves and that they have no sound basis to back up their position.
Honestly this sort of behavior was left behind at primary school. Someone needs to grow up.
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People that resort to personally attacking others it's usually a reflection of themselves and that they have no sound basis to back up their position.
Honestly this sort of behavior was left behind at primary school. Someone needs to grow up.
https://twitter.com/GunjanJS/status/...vJK1c59Lg&s=19
Yay for the NASDAQ lol. We did it!!! We lazily just bought USG/VUG in the distant past and then played video games and made many cups of tea and went for the occasional walk. All our hard work paid off!!!
Or you can read his posts, disagree with them and move on with your life.
I strongly disagree, and I don't think its the fear of being criticised.
Some of the posters here tend to refer to various private parts and rear body cavities instead of making their arguments. They prefer as well to attack other posters instead of playing the ball. This is worst kindergarten bully behaviour - nothing useful or funny about that.
This behaviour is absolutely unnecessary and clearly killing any useful discussion ... and yes, while SR has at times as well useful contributions, he seems to have a tendency to allow parts of his body not related to his head to formulate his arguments.
All this has nothing to do with posters needing "to grow a thicker skin" - the issue is clearly that some posters are not able to contain themselves and stick to a minimum of respect and courtesy.
If people like mud fights, they should join them together with like minded people, but please - not here. This forum should allow constructive discussions about capital markets and be an open and safe place for everyone.
Well said BlackPeter nailed it.
Back to topic. Been short Russell 2000 for a few days & long Nat Gas for a bit longer. My Nat Gas trade is up about 10% in a week, Short trade is only marginally in the green.
With two big US events on the horizon in the next 48 hours, tempted just to take the win.
Inflation rate eases to 4.9% in April, less than expectations
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/10/cpi-...pril-2023.html
still trading within the micro range since end of march within the bigger range since nearly a yr ago
Good Morning Daytr
May I know what type of instrument do you use to short Russell 2000 and get long on Gas? Do you go with foreign broker? Thanks.
And when you investigate CMC markets, they are by law forced to disclose the percentage of customers who don't lose money.
And you will find that percentage is very small.
What they don't have to disclose is the percentage of customers who not only make money, but make more than they would by passively holding an index fund. As that % is zero.
In a casino the hose always has the odds.
Industry Marketing Strategy #1: The field of a hundred funds blooming.
This one works as follows: a mutual fund complex launches 100 funds. Five have standout 1 to 3 year results, so the marketing apparatus sells the heck out of those to unsuspecting customers. When the inevitable reversion to the mean (mean being equal to market returns less fees) occurs, they find another five funds to market in the same fashion.
The hope is to always keep bringing in new customers, and to try to minimize the churn among the disappointed ones by keeping them within the mutual fund complex and selling them the new “fund of the year.” Hopefully you can see how this ends: customers make a return that’s equal to roughly market minus fees, and the mutual fund complex skims its 0.5% to 1% off the top for no value added. Where are the customer’s yachts, indeed.
Industry Marketing Strategy #2: Shooting star
A hot-shot hedge fund manager launches a modest-sized fund. He sits relatively quietly until he hits a stretch of 2-3 years of great returns. Perhaps he even invests in a way to take large risks to achieve the possibility of big gains that he can market. Perhaps not and he is simply waiting for positive randomness, it doesn’t matter.
Having hit the lucky streak, he goes on a marketing rampage. Of course, he supplements the amazing recent results with a narrative. Nothing sells like a story about the “special sauce” that he uses to produce these amazing results. The performance-chasing customers pile in, just in time for the reversion to the mean. The result is that on an asset-weighted basis his customers have a result ranging from terrible to mediocre, whereas the manager makes a killing for himself. Ouch.
Industry Marketing Strategy #3: Don’t think for yourself
This is done by marketing ninjas skilled in the black arts of behavioral persuasion. It usually involves some combination of the following:
Social Proof – “Did you know that [big name XYZ] invested with us?”
Scarcity – “This is only available for the next 2 months, closing the fund soon, we are so successful.”
Group Affinity – “Trust us, we are part of the same group.”
Reciprocity – “We like you, now like us back.”
Switch The Question – “Don’t answer whether you think we will do well with your investments, answer a different question, such as do you like us, are we well dressed and look the part, etc?”
The point of all of this is for you to stop using the rational part of your brain and to switch to the “reptilian” brain which uses short-cuts that favor the persuader to get the prospects to make quick decisions.
What do all of these methods have in common? The customer is the “mark” that exists primarily to provide wealth to the investment manager. They can’t be too smart or thorough in their decision making process, as these tactics work best on those chasing trailing performance and the easily persuadable who make impulsive decisions. Sadly, there seems to be no shortage of customers who fit these characteristics and fall for these tactics.
Some of the posts on this thread remind me not to be a tiger as outlined in this fable. The grass is blue... Mind you I don't want to be a donkey either.
https://en.rattibha.com/thread/1417874742808223745
might need a further packet of Red Crayons, the way markets are looking :)
The way Robbo's spending is going - Comrade Parker might be out with a proposal to see how much tax
he can shake loose out of the Sector - as a bit of Dividend RWT might not be quite enough :)
Even the Politicians like a juicy opportunity
in some camps such windfalls are expected to be shared around :)
Food prices were up 12.5% in the year to April 2023 - which is the highest annual rate of increase seen since 1987
https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-...-rate-increase
market down savagely on the food inflation
Fortunately,we didn't experience a Black Monday like in 1987. Next we had a financial crisis in 2008. Remember how many financial companies went under water (went to receivership )in New Zealand? Many lost money in investing in stocks and property market .
Will there be another one?
Yes. If asset prices go up well above their sustainable level.
https://www.investopedia.com/article...recessions.asp
Copper smashed overnight. Copper is typically seen as the canary in the coal mine for global economic health.
Interesting times.
Well, not sure about the times (copper related), but at least your choice of words is interesting ....
So - copper went down from USD 3.85 to USD 3.70, a shocking drop of 4%!
If we look at last years jitter (see chart), copper is well in the upper half of its natural jitter, and nothing extraordinary happened.
Attachment 14582
If you call this quite normal jitter "Smash"- how would you call it then if something unusual happens in the markets?
Yes I am quite happy with the wording I used. 4% in a day is big move in anyone's book including from someone who traded copper professionally. It also broke a reasonably big technical level which would have seen longs covering and shorts entering which would have exaggerated the move.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/pro...-investor-says
This leads to very little new investment in residential property ? New builds still will work old way ...so it encourages new build as an investment property ...but overall recent new landlords or additions will turn sour very soon ...50% interest deductibility already gone ...in another 2 all will go then all recent properties will become big cash flow negative ...shud have some effect on economy per se ...land lords are mostly middle income folks thus they in trouble will help RNBZ nail inflation faster ...this is additional increasing burden on their cash flows or money in hand ...this time higher rates plus this newer tax treatment of interest deductibility working in tandem ...shud reduce inflation faster ...Unless Bull has other spin on this ...lol
Now u cant leverage into rental market as mortgage paid is not an expense anymore ...so need full equity for better cash flows ...then maybe Sharemarket has come to equal footing and can offer better returns and growth then rental property with 100% equity
Copper has entered a bear market. I believe going forward copper along with over valued asset markets could have volatility as well as falling trend.
https://www.dailyfx.com/news/copper-...-20230512.html
https://mcgillbusinessreview.com/art...nd-then-a-bust
Very interesing article which was published in 2021.
Two schools of thoughts
The argument for equities in asset bubble territory Vs.The argument against a growing asset bubble
Why should we worry? Not because of inflation or recession.It’s because of over stretched asset prices.
I hope that's not the charting tool you use BlackPeter.
Here is a more accurate reflection of the move in Copper on Thursday night.
Attachment 14588
Interesting article looking back and in hindsight bullish argument was correct with stocks putting on another circa 20% from the time of the article.
Here's a current article and it highlights the FEDs tapering program which is running at $95Bln per month. It's an area I think that's under reported.
https://www.usbank.com/investing/fin...purchases.html
Too much weights not enough speed work. What was the next bit again
stagflation ?
Services sector drop down 4% april :scared:
https://businessnz.org.nz/psi/services-sector-drop/
see bull's post quite a while back of OCR at 6% is gaining traction
Westpac economists are now picking the Reserve Bank (RBNZ) will need to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to as high as 6% - which is a new high forecast among major bank economists.
https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-...conomy-westpac
6% - horrifying if it comes to pass.
Shameful we have found ourselves in this position.
Outside of residential construction the NZ economy is too damn resilient. Until the unemployment rate starts to increase we will have more hammering from the RBNZ.
No one is paying attention to IRD / Tax hammering already built into the system year on year ...or people think its inconsequential ?
IMO that will help a lot in controlling big part of inflationary money supply ...money out of the hands of land lords and into tax kitty ...keeping in view almost all haves in NZ are landlords too !!
Resilient because this Labour government is spending $1 billion more per week since they took office - that's a lot of money being pumped into the economy.
Note that NZ's current account deficit is now the worst since records began in 1988?
All that money gone into non productive imports and spending.
budget day tomorrow. will robinson be prudent or will he throw in some lollies
the market may not care when it comes to rates
“Running wider-for-longer fiscal deficits and adding further macroeconomic stimulus to an already out-of-balance economy is potentially problematic,” he said. “In this environment even a no-frills budget could look pretty frilly from an inflation-fighting perspective.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...uverify%20wall
second bank lifted there OCR peak
ANZ says higher official cash rate peak might be needed
It said it now expected the rate to peak at 5.75%, rather than 5.5% as previously predicted, which is also the Reserve Bank’s forecast peak
ANZ said, on the data alone, the Reserve Bank could justify a 6% peak but there were still downside risks
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/mon...ight-be-needed
see there saying cause of strong migration , potential property bottom
Maybe now is the time to look for long term growth stocks at bargain prices and not chase or be happy with yield players ...which is easier way but in long term growth stocks will easily outpace current yielders for absolute returns
Eg ...in 2014 MFT was $ 18 and HLG at $ 3.20 ...now even in downtrend MFT is $ 70 and HLG at $ 5.80 ...all can do the maths
Hi Alokdhir, what are your picks re the growth stocks?
Basically large cap blue chips ...at present I think KFL offers great portfolio and at a great discount to NAV too ...With KFL u get growth stocks with option of making it either regular income or pure growth with DRP ...on top of it its at discount to intrinsic value which will cover the future fund charges ...at current rate its 8% discount to NAV ...that can cover fund charges for next 5-6 years of holding ...even if u dont get any value of few warrant issues in that time . In my personal and humble opinion its pure win win situation
PS : Tax advantages of KFL for all over 28% rate is added bonus
What happened to the shipping industry?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsl...pping-slowdown
https://www.ft.com/content/c9808a10-...0-3da93172f290
NZ treasury reckons rates will stay higher for longer and houses to fall by another 4-5 %
economists saying the budget was not spending prudent as they hoped , may force RBNZ to hike rates .... our 6% call looks possible after the budget
Everything is possible but will it actually happen ...only time will tell ...even if OCR goes to 6% its not changing any usable rates big time ...maybe some small tinkering ...thats why no one bothers too much about that anymore . Longer part will also market not very sure part
BTW Petrol and Diesel prices in AKL started looking very close to pre covid levels ...$ 1.46 at Costco and Pak & Save ...very promising for inflation fight
They are the one reducing labour shortage too which will release pressure on wages ...so it will work both ways ...immigration has both side stories ...not just inflationary side ...so it is good thing for economy to have more willing and harder working immigrants replacing Kiwis leaving for greener pastures ..
Not that I always agree with TA, but not sure what the mix of immigrants will be. The Govt extended the family & partners qualifications so grand parents can join their family here etc.
Immigrants need a roof over their head no matter what, either rented or purchased so either way it absorbs housing stock.
The net swing is estimated to be about 50k increase from 2022 where net NZ lost people, to 2023.
As my mate said. TA couldn't pick his nose! 😅
This week's The Secret Broker;
https://stockhead.cmail20.com/t/d-l-...k-yupddjlly-u/
Rates are going up along with selected individual assets worldwide. But many others ( stocks, property, metals, grain, soft commodity, energy) are falling. With this adjustment(market equilibrium)inflation should come down by 2024. No need to play with interest rates.
Massive increases in wholesale interest rates in NZ this week.
90 day bank bill: from 5.58% on the 15th to 5.79% COB
1 yr swap: 5.51% to 6.0%
2 yr swap: 4.9% to 5.49%
5 yr swap: 4.23% to 4.61%
10yr gov: 4.05% to 4.41%
Implies OCR higher for longer and inversion signals increased chances of recession.
Horrifying, budget induced rises in wholesale interest rates.
Fingers crossed they prove a knee jerk reaction. However, for today anyway, it appears the market is starting to agree with Westpac's call that the OCR could reach 6% (ANZ by reference now 5.75%). Rates are volatile, but this is a big increase (!)
Dalio
Spending more than one earns and financing it with debt, which we have been doing for a long time, is easy, pleasurable, and not sustainable. It’s not sustainable because increasing debt assets and liabilities faster than income eventually makes it impossible to simultaneously pay lender-creditors a high enough real (i.e., inflation-adjusted) interest rate to have them hold the debt assets without having that real interest rate too high for the borrower-debtors to be able to service their debts.
When debt assets and liabilities reach the point that the amount of debt sold is greater than the amount of debt that buyers want to buy, central banks are faced with a choice: they either have to let interest rates rise to balance the supply and demand, which is crushing to debtors and the economy, or they have to print money and buy the debt, which is inflationary and encourages holders of the debt to sell the debt, which makes this debt imbalance worse. In either case that creates a debt crisis that is like the runs on the banks that we have been seeing, but with government bonds being what is sold and the run on the bank being a run on the central bank. That is how all reserve currencies and big debt cycles have ended. From what I see, which I will cover in another post, we are approaching that tipping point in which the amount of debt sold by the government will be greater than the demand for it, which could lead to the central bank having to print money and buy bonds and a sale of government bonds that would put the central bank in that untenable position I just described.
https://www.investopedia.com/article...0price%20spike.
Quoted from the above link.
How Asset Bubbles Can Lead to Recession
An asset bubble occurs when the price of an asset, such as stocks, bonds, real estate, or commodities, rises at a rapid pace without underlying fundamentals to justify the price spike.
I believe it's time to become cautious on tech stocks. I find hardly any strong company trading below the PE ratio of 50. It’s ridiculous to have companies trading above the PE ratio of 1000. Could there be another tech or dot com crisis in this over crowded sector?https://markets.businessinsider.com/...%204%25%20gain.
Sorry. It should be "can't find any strong Tech company below a 15 P/E".
https://www.currentmarketvaluation.c...e-earnings.php
https://www.currentmarketvaluation.c...-indicator.php
https://ycharts.com/companies/ASXFY/pe_ratio
ASX PE Ratio:37.50 for May 19, 2023
If I am correct during the past 13 years , NZX's highest PE ratio was 38.46 and the lowest was 11.5.
BREAKING: White House says if the US defaults, the stock market is expected to decline by more than 45%.. ….from an outfit called Spectator
Big bargains on the way …….cash ready
However,I don't rule out kind of panic situation. At the end patient and disciplined investor will win.
I don't think so. Only thing I expect is coming bear market after the longest bull market. Of course time to time there could be heavy sell-off, volatitity in all types of markets. Bull market will follow bear market. Bear market will follow bull market. This time is no different to me. Under the current situation,value investing makes sense. Rule number one: Never make lossess again.
Value vs Growth,.
https://stockhead.cmail19.com/t/d-l-vlydro-yupddjlly-c/
Meanwhile on a place called planet Earth in Q1 of 2023;
As of quarter-end, if our portfolio were viewed as one see-through company, based on sell-side consensusestimates (or when unavailable our own estimates), our portfolio would be trading at a 1-year-forward P/Emultiple of 7.6x and a 3-year forward P/E multiple of 5.2x.10,11 This implies a ~21% net income CAGR andassumes no share repurchases over that period. I am optimistic about the prospects of our currentportfolio, particularly the margin of safety that I believe is embedded in our see-through multiple.
Here I was thinking we are in a generational bear with many hundreds of quality companies that have had 10 years wiped of their share prices not to mention 50%.
https://www.squirrel.co.nz/blogs/hou...cri-1131155066
Other side of the story
IMO ...we will have another 25-50bips increase ...but thats actually inconsequential to real rates ...markets have already done it ...But will Banks raise usable rates for masses ...fearing more business loss ...so overall theme that we are done is easier to see ...rates topped shud encourage equity investment in next few months
RV stocks big reversal is showing early signs of that
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/132...ity-phased-out
This side of inflation control is not fully appreciated by markets ...
Also for first time in NZ history stocks are becoming more attractive then rental property ...
yep agree 25 - 50 increase this wednesday
markets had big move up in rates after budget pricing in higher OCR so be surprising if ORR didnt raise OCR due to higher migration/increase in budget spending/cyclone spending
and yes if US defaults that will bring about a end to the rate rising very quickly :) and probably QE again
Doubt neutral.
That money left in the hands of those it was taken from would perhaps be somewhat used to increase productive capacity, invested wisely.
In the hands of the state it will be wasted and used to decrease productive capacity and spent on KFC and fuel.
Thanks Percy ,a good read.I have a mix of growth and value from nanocap to largecap which has made investing simpler with ample reward.
Most home loan borrowers are yet to roll onto the new rates. This will continue to increase over the next 18 months.
Orr said at the last meeting that banks hadn't passed on the previous rate rise, so here's another 50bp.
That says to me he wasn't wanting to go 50bps last time but the banks forced his hand.
This time around the banks are doing the opposite and factoring in 50bps.
My guess is that Reserve Bank will either go into holding pattern to see the impact of what they have already done or go 25bps.
The debt ceing has been raised something like 78 times in 60 years. Soon to be 79.
I am not sure ...as land lords kept becoming bigger as it became fashionable to say how many rental properties u have ..etc
KFC and fuel is also productive ...money comes to economy ...but I reckon socialism is never acceptable in ingrained capitalist economies ....but slowly slowly it will be more acceptable ....mind u I am not labour voter ...lest u think so ...lol
If it was spent on a new chicken farm or offshore rig then perhaps.
Money will come to the economy if the government buys every molecule of fuel in the country and sets fire to it. Does not mean it's productive.
If we ban all earth moving equipment tomorrow and replace with teams of men with shovels, way more jobs to go around and way more money getting poured into wages.
Doesn't mean it's productive.
Labour says school lunches are great as provide jobs.
OK then why stop with school lunches, why not feed the whole country.
Then start on seagulls. Imagine the jobs it would create.