Winston can choose between a 2-party 5 seat majority in the House, or a 3-party 3 seat majority. One choice is less complicated with more power, the other is more complicated with less power. I wonder which will choose?
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What we can clearly say today is that National were winners on the ground with 41 electorate seats. Labour coming a distant second with 29. And no-one wanting NZ First or the Greens in their Electorate.
I'm not sure about the more complicated more power. NZ First gets 9 seats, Greens get 8 seats. Labour need both. Both are essentially equal. Labour cant do without one. James Shaw is the one in the bargaining seat.
National might just say to Winston - go with the three headed hydra. And wish him luck along the way. Wont happen of course. (National would have loads of fun in opposition).
Mr Peters has set a short deadline for his (party's) decision. That says cross benches to me, and that the decision has already been made.
Shaw can't go running off anywhere else. That's why Winston will give him next to nothing. If a desperate Labour and Big Chief Winston can agree on the baubles for Winnie, then they'll chuck a wee bone at the Greens - who will take it rather than spend another 3 years (maybe) in the widerness. A small bone to pick on might be better than starving to death.